Dany vs Aegon in the battle for Dornish support.

[Jon Icefyre]

Quot:

Fire and blood was what Jon Connington (if indeed it was him) was offering as well. Or was it? "He comes with sellswords, but no dragons," Prince Doran had told her, the night the raven came. "The Golden Company is the best and largest of the free companies, but ten thousand mercenaries cannot hope to win the Seven Kingdoms. Elia's son... I would weep for joy if some part of my sister had survived, but what proof do we have that this is Aegon?" His voice broke when he said that. "Where are the dragons?" he asked. "Where is Daenerys?" and Arianne knew that he was really saying, "Where is my son?"

Its clear that getting Doran's support won't be as easy as JC might have expected but on the other hand Doran seems pretty worried about Quentyn and it seems that news of his son's death may make Doran more furious than people assume. So who will Dorne end up giving their support to Aegon or Dany?

[Vic-tarion Rattlehead]

I believe, that after the acknowledgment of Quentyn's demise by Dany's dragons, Doran Martel wouldn't be too eager to side with her. He may even march against her in some moment of blinded vengeance frenzy. I think, Dorn is going to vote Aegon in the next elections, even if he is not a genuine article.

[flidderman]

Doran will probably die soon, and Arianne is definitely more inclined towards Aegon. The news about Quentyn will be the final straw.

(Why would GRRM even give us the Quentyn POV if it wasn't going to have major ramifications down the line?)

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Aegon is in prime position to get rid of the Lannisters and sit the iron throne. Add in the circumstances surrounding Quentyn's death (spurned by Dany for a sell sword) and it all adds up to Dorne joining Aegon.

I think the news about Quentyn will finish Doran, as he will likely die of a broken heart. Arianne is not ready to lead. She is too rash and will likely declare for Aegon b/c he is in the best position to give her vengeance. In the end, Dorne will likely regret the decision, but for the short-term, they will likely get dead Lannisters/Tyrells.

[Grizzly Mormont]

Hahahahaah your name is funny. ⬆

[jarl the climber]

I am starting to think that Dorne will not declare for Aegon because they beleive he is a fake or a Blackfyre. MAking an alliance with Dany will be impractical because she isn to far from Westeros and because of Quentyn. I think they will actually cut a deal with Stannis. It seems hard to beleive but this deal with the Iron Bank will be a big deal to people once it becomes known.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I am starting to think that Dorne will not declare for Aegon because they beleive he is a fake or a Blackfyre. MAking an alliance with Dany will be impractical because she isn to far from Westeros and because of Quentyn. I think they will actually cut a deal with Stannis. It seems hard to beleive but this deal with the Iron Bank will be a big deal to people once it becomes known.

I'm not sure what the support of the iron bank will give besides the ability to hire sell swords. Additionally, Stannis is facing long odds, half-a-world away. Stannis comes from the same line that overthrew the Targaryen and caused the death of Elia.

[Lion of Judah]

I'm all but certain Dorne supports Aegon.

[chrisdaw]

Already over, Dorne is for Aegon, the price is a marriage pact, which JC will pay. Dany is still a world away and he's short on time. And if Gerris leaves before Dany's survival is known the news that reaches Dorne will be she's lost and possibly dead.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

It's not that Aegon will win Dorne, it's that Dany already LOST Dorne.

And Doran obsession about dragons is quite baffling, when his 80 something blind, bold & toothless princess ancestor went unbowed, unbent, unbroken against Aegon the fucking Conqueror, and that Robert didn't have any dragons, you'd think that he would be more reserved on this front. it sound like he has a one trick pony, autowin button in mind.

[Jon Icefyre]

Already over, Dorne is for Aegon, the price is a marriage pact, which JC will pay. Dany is still a world away and he's short on time. And if Gerris leaves before Dany's survival is known the news that reaches Dorne will be she's lost and possibly dead.

Do you mean JC will pay by allowing Aegon to marry or that JC himself will get married? Because the latter won't happen JC has greyscale and won't risk anyone finding that out. A marriage would leave JC way too vulnerable, and greatly increase the likely hood of his greyscale being revealed to the public. In fact I think he may have mentioned something in ADWD when the possibility of him getting married was brought up to him by the half maester and he rejected the idea because of his greyscale but I'm not completely sure, i'll have to re read it.

[chrisdaw]

He will allow Aegon and Arianne to marry despite the plan being to marry Dany.

[The Killer Snark]

I'll keep this short and simple. I think Aegon will pave the way for Dany in Westeros and then he's going to die.

[Tini]

Already over, Dorne is for Aegon, the price is a marriage pact, which JC will pay. Dany is still a world away and he's short on time. And if Gerris leaves before Dany's survival is known the news that reaches Dorne will be she's lost and possibly dead.

There already was a marriage pact - Aegon is Elia of Dorne's son, Doran's nephew. It's the reason why the Dornish want to support him, and Doran is forced to play along. Since Dorne is likely to support Aegon anyway, a marriage to Arianne would be overkill. Better for Aegon, and Arianne, to secure additional support by taking spouses whose support / loyalty is uncertain.

[chrisdaw]

Doran and Dorne won't accept anything less, Dorne makes queens.

[Grizzly Mormont]

when the possibility of him getting married was brought up... he rejected the idea because of his greyscale

He rejected the marriage thing cuz of his gayscale.

[gingerpunk]

He rejected the marriage thing cuz of his gayscale.

LOL a Freudian slip.

[Whitering]

The knights bringing Quenyn home don't seem the type to fib, they will say Dany gave them the cold shoulder, that they tried to steal a dragon and got dead because of it. Further, they released the dragons into the wild so they can now be more easily captured or killed. If that happens Dany will be the one to be angry, Doran should recognize that, but that's presuming the knights make it back before he does something stupid.

[Winter Warden]

Aegon will likely marry Arianne in order to win Dorne. He will do so because, when Quentyn's group makes it back, they will bring the news that not only is Dany possibly dead, but even if she's alive, she's married again, which will take an Aegon/Dany marriage off the table. Of course by then, Dany may not be married once more (it would not surprise me), but Aegon won't discover that until much later (whenever Dany finally makes it to Westeros). Dorne will join Aegon because of what happened to Quentyn.

Really, the news about Dany and Quentyn seems to make Aegon/Arianne just about a lock, barring unforseen difficulties.

[chrisdaw]

The knights bringing Quenyn home don't seem the type to fib, they will say Dany gave them the cold shoulder, that they tried to steal a dragon and got dead because of it. Further, they released the dragons into the wild so they can now be more easily captured or killed. If that happens Dany will be the one to be angry, Doran should recognize that, but that's presuming the knights make it back before he does something stupid.

She spurned him. He offered her his heart, and she threw it back at him and went off to fuck her sellsword.

That will be the thrust of the story, coupled with "she's probably dead".