Varys wouldn't free Ned because...

[Arrein The Only]

.. If he let Ned go, Ned would go straight home and call his banners along with Stannis, (perhaps the Tullys would join?) and march south to KL. Tywin would probably march north to try to stop them, and Stannis coming from Dragonstone could hit KL. I think the Lannisters would see utter defeat if this happened, though they would have to talk some sense into Renly. BUT! if all this would happen, Varys plan for Aegon would be faltered and would have to be delayed for some time, i think thats why he told him he wasn't going to let him free. What are your guys thoughts?

[Theda Baratheon]

I think your point is pretty plausible to be honest.

[Arrein The Only]

I think your point is pretty plausible to be honest.

Well i'm sure there are others who believe the same thing, though ive always wondered if this did happen, would Renly bend the knee to Stannis?

[otherbeef]

Renly only declared after Ned refused him. If Ned escaped and raised an army, he wouldn't declare.

And yes, Varys didn't do anything to help Ned because he needed the Realm splintered with war, to make an Aegon invasion easier/plausible.

[Sweet-N-SourRobin]

Varys admits he is feeling Ned out from the moment he arrives in King's Landing, trying to figure out what sort of man he is. As Varys explains, there are two types of men in King's Landing -- men loyal to the crown, and men loyal to themselves. The latter is far more common. Varys knows how to deal with them, knows how to set them against each other, knows how to use them to keep the realm divided and ready to rip itself apart. Ned is very much the former, and that's a BIG problem. Ned serves the realm, too. Robert's Realm. Rather than seize it, Ned would defend it. Including, Varys quickly concludes, against Aegon.

And considering how much Ned did to win much of Robert's Rebellion for him in the first place, Ned is not the sort of man Varys wants to have around doing the defending. Ned could succeed.

It's the other side of the coin for Varys. Varys wants incompetent people in charge, loose cannons like Cersei running things into the ground. Competent politicans like Kevan need to be eliminated. Competent GENERALS especially need to be removed from the board, lest they outsmart, outmaneuver, and destroy the inexperienced Aegon.

Ned has to go just like Tywin has to go. Mace Tyrell can probably sleep easy at night, however. :P

[The Dragon King]

.. If he let Ned go, Ned would go straight home and call his banners along with Stannis, (perhaps the Tullys would join?) and march south to KL. Tywin would probably march north to try to stop them, and Stannis coming from Dragonstone could hit KL. I think the Lannisters would see utter defeat if this happened, though they would have to talk some sense into Renly. BUT! if all this would happen, Varys plan for Aegon would be faltered and would have to be delayed for some time, i think thats why he told him he wasn't going to let him free. What are your guys thoughts?

The Lannisters have his daughters. If Ned openly supports Joffrey and agrees to take the black that's exactly what he'd do, and that would also make it very difficult for Robb to declare war, the Lord of the North just declared for Joffrey, him and the Northern bannermen would look kinda stupid going against what their Lord just did.

Varys wouldnt free Ned because it would lessen the possibility of war, which he wants.

[Mladen]

.. If he let Ned go, Ned would go straight home and call his banners along with Stannis, (perhaps the Tullys would join?) and march south to KL. Tywin would probably march north to try to stop them, and Stannis coming from Dragonstone could hit KL. I think the Lannisters would see utter defeat if this happened, though they would have to talk some sense into Renly. BUT! if all this would happen, Varys plan for Aegon would be faltered and would have to be delayed for some time, i think thats why he told him he wasn't going to let him free. What are your guys thoughts?

This is very well thought of...Stannis and Ned would make such good team (even if Stannis never liked Ned), Tullys would follow them, and after Renly`s death who knows? maybe Ned would unite Starks and Tyrells with marriage (Starks did that in RR). Also, Theon would have never left for Pyke, Ned would have kept an eye on him...They would destroy Lannisters soon, and they would become even more stronger than Robert. And Varys certainly didn`t want that to happen.

[Vengeance]

The reason he didn't free him was because it didn't serve the plot for him to be free. Martin was going to kill him off. These are characters, well fleshed out characters yes, but you speak about them as if they possess the same complex motivations as real people - Martin is a fantastic writer and world builder but the number of mind numbingly trivial things that people spend hours speculating over must have him pissing himself with laughter.

[Lord_Tyrell]

Ned served no purpose to Varys' main plan, but he knew he needed him alive. He just had to convince him to take the Black, and then Varys would be able to use his son later once Aegon came over the Narrow Sea. He needs all hell breaking loose when Aegon arrives, not a few years before.

[Minsc]

Would have Ned actually gone to war with Stannis against Joffrey if he believed that both Sansa and Arya are being held prisoner in King's Landing? As I doubt that Ned would have been willing to risk either of his daughters safety by openly defying their captors by rising up in rebellion. Thus, likely he would have just held a neutral position of holding the Moat and allowing no one into the North.

[Er Rn]

Good points OP.

I think he didn't free Ned for the same reason he killed Kevan - he wanted the realm as weak and chaotic as possible to make things smoother for fAegon's takeover.

[Ser Creighton]

"Varys wouldn't free Ned because..."

Because Varys is a manipulative dick.

[not in the face]

Hadn't Robb already called the banners and captured Jaime by then?

[NorthRemembers]

It's the other side of the coin for Varys. Varys wants incompetent people in charge, loose cannons like Cersei running things into the ground. Competent politicans like Kevan need to be eliminated. Competent GENERALS especially need to be removed from the board, lest they outsmart, outmaneuver, and destroy the inexperienced Aegon.

Ned has to go just like Tywin has to go. Mace Tyrell can probably sleep easy at night, however. :P

Randyl Tarly better hire some body guards though.

[Rheagar Prime]

all this time i said it was plot no jutsu but this does seem plausible

[Pod The Impaler]

If let's say Varys had freed Ned Stark, and Stark had been able to head north and join Robb as their northern armies came together, then Stannis would have a very strong chance of winning.

Eddard would declare for Stannis, and even if he had been the one to lift the siege of Riverrun and capture the Kingslayer, I don't think he'd be bulldozed into the whole "King In The North" thing, much as he'd make a good one.

Along with Eddard's northmen, Stannis could count on the Riverlands, and maybe even the Vale might join them. because Eddard would be a good deal more convincing to people like House Royce, etc. Littlefinger's treachery would also be widely known, so he'd likely be persona non gratta in the Vale, far less able to pull Lysa's strings to keep the Vale out.

Morale in Tywin's army would rapidly sink - much of their strategy and aggressiveness was predicated on the idea Robb was some green boy unable to fight a war. An Eddard / Stannis combo would send a chill through their whole army. They'd probably still fight, but the character of the fighting would change.

Oh, and the word of Joffrey's bastardy would be spreading like wildfire still, but more credible for the fact Ned Stark is confirming it. Eddard would try to find Robert's bastards and protect them, meaning he might find Gendry and Arya before they are captured.

Renly might not declare himself King if Eddard was able to lead a northern army and was declaring for Stannis. He might bend the knee and finish things. There would be talk of his ambition, no doubt, but the belligerence of Renly was in large part because Stannis attarcted virtually no support on his own. (Stanis with 50000 men is a very different thing than Stannis with 5000 - it cannot be dismissed so easily, least of all by Renly's supporting lords.)

However, let's say it's too late, and Renly declares himself KIng and marches with all the Tyrell strength and a good portion of the Stormlands still. As Eddard and Stannis make a campaign that is northern-centric, there would be none of the Storms' End confrontation stuff. The path for Renly to march on King's Landing would basically be wide open. Tywin's choices would be either face the army of Stannis and Eddard in the North, with all he's got, or do likewise with Renly (leaving the capital to be attacked by Stannis). The only other option would be to draw their forces back to King's Landing and await the siege which destroys them.

Balon Greyjoy might change his plans knowing it is Eddard / Stannis he'd be facing if he attacked the North. He likely hated them both more than Robb, but he was a strategic coward who thought the North was easy pickings. He may attack the Westerlands without prompting, especially if the Lannisters are cut off from it.

So basically, by freeing Ned, Varys is giving the crown to Stannis. Kiss the Targaryen gambit goodbye, unless he can somehow convince Eddard Stark to support Dany or Aegon, sight unseen.

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

Ned's banners were already called by Robb when Ned was arrested.

Varys doesn't free Ned, because Ned is worthless and freeing him would be traced back to him.

Ned is worthless, Robert is dead, Ned failed to protect him. In all actuality he shortened Robert's life. He doesn't want anything to do with KL or being hand or anything else.

[Bangers&Mash]

So basically, by freeing Ned, Varys is giving the crown to Stannis. Kiss the Targaryen gambit goodbye, unless he can somehow convince Eddard Stark to support Dany or Aegon, sight unseen.

*SPOILERS*

I completely agree. He needs the realm to be in chaos for when Dany (or a certain someone else) arrives. Releasing Ned and letting him fight with Stannis would mean they would win and the realm would be stable again too soon. Westeros needs to be fractured so that those he is really serving can take the Kingdoms.

[James Arryn]

Randyl Tarly better hire some body guards though.

He had also better invest in anti-Szequellin guards and Vewkinvek-proof armor. Anyone who doesn't prepare for things they don't know exist is an idiot.

[thecryptile]

He had also better invest in anti-Szequellin guards and Vewkinvek-proof armor. Anyone who doesn't prepare for things they don't know exist is an idiot.

"We know there are known knowns: there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns: that is to say we know there are things we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know." —Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld