Did you believe Aegon was fake from the start, or did you believe he was real?

[King of Winters]

If Aegon is fake, why would Varys lie to Kevan while ending his life, and not just tell the truth?

All Varys says is "Aegon". He doesn't say a surename or any other name other than Aegon. It's Kevan that assumes it's Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar and Elia. And before he can ask more he can't because he's in so much pain because of the arrow in his chest. Varys doesn't lie to Kevan, he says Aegon has returned and that's the truth, but he didn't say which one.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

The basic problem with some arguments in this thread is clearly illustrated in the title. "Did you believe..." Belief isn't a valid tool for reaching conclusions. You can believe you're a duck, and spend your day quacking and flapping and eating corn, but that doesn't make you a duck. You can believe that a molecule of water is made up of 4 atoms of sulfur and 17 atoms of iron, but your chemistry experiments won't work for you. You can believe 2+2=17, but any time you use that in the real world your results won't work out.

If invisible unicorns don't exist, there's no way to prove it. That's why it's up to the people who claim invisible unicorns exist to provide some evidence they do. If they don't, reason says we reject their claim. We don't have to prove they don't. If YG isn't really Aegon VI, there's no practical way to prove it. That's why the burden of proof falls upon YG.

Reason dictates that the person making the claim bears the burden of providing the evidence. Until we see evidence, we should work from a default position of skepticism. I never accepted the claim that YG=Aegon because no evidence was provided. (Varys could have had Elia sign a note, or provide some other token, but didn't, as far as we know.) None has been provided yet. Harry Strickland openly says they don't have any. Until evidence is provided, YG should be considered a fake.

Tyrion doesn't accept it, either. A couple pages before he "reveals" he has figured it out, he has an internal monologue (it's even in italics in the book) where he lamely defends to himself the fact that he trusted Jaime when his brother told him Tisha was a fake, and pretty much declares he's never going to trust anyone again. Why would he trust Varys, of all people?

[Ittiz]

I think how Tyrion comes to the conclusion the kid is Aegon is based on more than his looks. First he's with a guy who fits the description of Jon Cunnington, secondly he is being brought up as if he is high born, thirdly he has a Targaryen apperance and fourthly Tyrion knows his history and would remember that Bitter Steel did exactly the same this with the Blackfyre pretender Daemon the second.

GRRM has been able to throw in a lot of info that makes it hard to interpret whether he is the real Aegon, which makes me think he's fake. I don't think, based on the events in the first book, that GRRM intended to have Aegon return. It's clear Varys and Illyrio are intending to have Viserys become king or Dani Queen after Viserys dies. Then all of a sudden they pull Aegon (the rightful heir to the Iron throne) out of their butts at the last second and try to make him king? It doesn't make sense. Aegon could be a Targaryen or a Blackfyre, maybe a descendant of Daemon or Aerion. I think in the story Varys and Illyrio are keeping him as a backup in case all else fails. Since they want a "Dragon" on the throne. They don't keep the rightful heir to the iron throne as a backup, especially when they knew Viserys was so messed up.

In reality I think GRRM put him in there to get Dani to Westeros. After she gets there it will some how be revealed he isn't Aegon. To me it seems like just one too many things to have Aegon be alive, especially if R+L=J is true.

[PrimeRhaegar]

i still believe he is real until proven otherwise. I do have my doubts and somw theories about it do make sense, but thats all they are theories.

[WhiteWalder]

I was suspicious from the start, he just appeared out of nowhere without any hints or clues leading up to it, something GRRM is known for providing. It would be sloppy writing to keep us guessing who is going to sit the IT only to have Aegon pop up and sit it in the end. It would also reduce the impact of R+L=J being revealed.

I was suspicious as well, especially after we have already seen one switched identity with Arya.

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

But what does actually speak against Young Griff being Aegon? For example, the 3 Kingsguards remaining at the ToJ speak against Jon not being son of Rhaegar, because then they would have reasons not being there, going to Viserys etc. So what is there that doesn't make sense with Aegon being Aegon, that people almost seem to want him to be fake?

[Prince of the North]

I believe in (f)Aegon :) And I would remind everyone that, in the end, it doesn't really matter if Aegon is "real" or not. It only matters how many lords (with their swords) would support his claim to the Iron Throne.

[Veltigar]

But what does actually speak against Young Griff being Aegon? For example, the 3 Kingsguards remaining at the ToJ speak against Jon not being son of Rhaegar, because then they would have reasons not being there, going to Viserys etc. So what is there that doesn't make sense with Aegon being Aegon, that people almost seem to want him to be fake?

pretty much everything. The clues are there and they tell us that Aegon is a fake with Blackfyre heritage (or as I believe both Blackfyre and Brightflame heritage)

[Drogon'sWrath]

If he is fake, I think Illyrio might be the only one that knows. Connington obviously believes he is real, and it seems that Aegon also thinks that. And Varys' speech to Kevan tells me that he too believes he is the real Aegon. I see no reason Varys would have lied to a dying man. Granted, I have my doubts, but I still think that he is the real Aegon. If he is fake, Illyrio would be the one that would tell us. Maybe a Prologue or Epilogue?

[manting]

I was convinced he was fake immediatley simply because GRRM stuck him in there 5 books deep. A huge character appears out of nowhere 5 books in? That is either really lazy writing or hes a fake and it will develope. Also the whole mummers dragon thing. And the fact that how did Varys know that Gregor would smash the baby's head to bits thus making him unrecognizable?

THe evidence for him being real is the speech Varys has with Keven at the end of ADoD - why would Varys lie to Keven is he is going to die anyway? Was it to keep the truth from his henchkids?

[Arcanon]

I believed it first for about 5 minutes. I was annoyed that he was alive and thinking "He better not end up on the iron throne I mean c'mon 5 books in?!" and well now a large part of me is just unsure and just really hoping he's a fake.... unless Dany is destined to get the IT in the end then im hoping he's real and gets it instead =D

[Veltigar]

And Varys' speech to Kevan tells me that he too believes he is the real Aegon.

Varys never says Aegon Targaryen. It's very telling that he leaves Targaryen out. And Aegon is also a Blackfyre name (since the Blackfyres have at least 4 ancestors named Aegon). And we should all remember Varys speech to Ned about the killer of Jon Arryn from aGoT. We all thought that he was pretty obviously talking about Ser Hugh but in aSoS we find out that he was actually talking about Littlefinger. Varys is a master of seemingly telling the truth, not actually telling the truth. You also have to take the presence of the little birds into account, if he just says Aegon Blackfyre and one of his little birds get caught he might be in serious ptrouble. On top of that there is a ton of evidence pointing to Blackfyre (and to a lesser extent Brightflame) heritage.

[Ser Loudmouth]

I believed Aegon was real and still believe so.

[The Taxman]

Aegon is real (son of Lyanna and Rhaegar)

The Jon Snow we know now is a Stark - son of Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne. Jon Snow is the mummers dragon.

[grand old duke of stark]

The minute fAegon was revealed I smelled a rat. I wasn't convinced because it was so late in the saga and there had been so much identity and baby switching already. Later, I felt that JonCon's actions and authenticity and fAegon's apparent leadership skills dspite his callow youth made it all more plausible. Varys telling the dying Kevan made it even more so. I"m still not convinced, but in either case I am hoping the lad is killed quickly so we can return to the main event.

[WakeTheDragon]

He is real. The blackfyre theories are based on absolutely nothing but some misplaced infatuation with the blackfyres.

[Zizoz]

I learned the theory that he was fake at the same time I learned he existed (before ADWD came out, even though I was trying to avoid spoilers), and I always believed it.

[bent branch]

As I have pointed out before, I'm still missing some sort of inner comment from Tyrion on the matter. After all, that chapter is in his head. Even if Aegon is fake, the whole mummery or surprise (if he is real) should interest any human being more than, Ah, okay, you are Aegon, cool, I'll have another cup of wine.

Here is some thoughts from Tyrion's head about Aegon (ADWD, Nook Edition, pages 409-410). They have convinced me that Aegon is real, make of them what you will.

Haldon Halfmaester had spoken of using the red priest to Young Griff's advantage, Tyrion recalled. Now that he had seen and heard the man himself, that struck him as a very bad idea. He hoped that Griff had better sense. Some allies are more dangerous than enemies. But Lord Connington will need to puzzle that one out himself. I am like to be a head on a spike.

The priest was pointing at the Black Wall behind the temple, gesturing up at its parapets, where a handful of armored guardsmen stood gazing down. "What is he saying?" Tyrion asked the knight.

"That Daenerys stands in peril. The dark eye has fallen upon her, and minions of night are plotting her destruction, praying to their false gods in temples of deceit ... conspiring at betrayal with godless outlanders ..."

The hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck began to prickle. Prince Aegon will find no friend here. The red priest spoke of ancient prophecy, a prophecy that foretold the coming of a hero to deliver the world from darkness. One hero. Not two. Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not. The dwarf did not need to be a prophet himself to foresee how Benerro and his followers might react to a second Targaryen. Griff will see that too, surely, he thought, surprised to find how much he cared.

[Magic 8 Ball]

If Dany and Viserys lived with the Sealord of Braavos, which seems like a big possibility considering they must have been in 'the court of the mighty' to have a lemon tree - these might be the 'knives'. We learn knives come out when a Sealord dies, and with Viserys' paranoia and having to run from the situation, Viserys might have been arrogant enough to assume that those particular Sealord knives were personal to him. In fact, they would have had nothing to do with Robert.

It's a coastal climate, in a private garden with multi-year summers. Anybody could have a lemon tree. Quit reading into the Lemon tree conspiracy theory!

[yolkboy]

It's a coastal climate, in a private garden with multi-year summers. Anybody could have a lemon tree. Quit reading into the Lemon tree conspiracy theory!

No, only those 'courtyards of the mighty' could have had one. It says so in the text.