Did you believe Aegon was fake from the start, or did you believe he was real?

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

Fake.

I thought: "Heh. Martin is too good a writer to come up with the true heir in the fifth book."

This!

[poostorm]

I thought he was fake, but more and more I'm thinking he's real. At first I thought that introducing this character so late in the game along with the "don't trust the mummer's dragon" prophecy, that it had to be a fake. "The dragon has three heads", makes me think there are going to be three Targs that will be of significance; Dany, Aegon & Jon. I'm sure between now and WoW I'll have more time to flip-flop.

[TheAwesomeVargoHoat]

When reading it the first time I seen no reason as to why he wasn't Aegon, but I kind of read books 1-5 back to back, mostly on the train so I probably missed a lot of stuff that other people caught on to.

Now I`m actually hoping he`s a Blackfyre, and I`m rooting for him to win. If a bastard Targaryan is going to sit the Iron Throne I`d rather it be Aegon than Jon Snow.

[Cas Stark]

He's probably fake, but, it would be completely in keeping w/Varys low risk character to have been able to save Elia and both her children, but only saving the baby because he could effect a switch without anyone knowing...at virtually no risk to himself and then he would have total control of the child for the forseeable future. So, he could be real as well.

[Boromir_Stark]

Like most, something seemed off for me at first, but I did not put it all together until reading some stuff on here.

I'm still a little uncertain, but only because GRRM is writing these books.

I do wonder if we'll ever find out. I think Aegon will die at some point either way, but maybe he will die without anyone confirming whether he is real or not. We're not like to get a Varys chapter, and I do believe that Connington definitely believes he's the real deal.

I could see Daenerys or somebody questioning Aegon's legitimacy, other characters (like Connington) supporting him, and ultimately Aegon dying with the truth forever uncertain. Sounds like GRRM to me. Daenerys would never know whether she killed her nephew or not.

[Florina Laufeyson]

I already wrote this somewhere, but from the start to the end, my main issue concerning Aegon is not whether he is fake or not (I don't actually care, I'll have some unexplainable liking for Aegon either way), but whether GRRM is in his right mind and what the hell Tyrion was thinking.

See, FOUR and a half bleeding books pass without even hinting that something might be up with Jon Connington at least and then BAMM Rhaegar's son is alive. In my humble opinion to bring back a real Aegon just like that is an incredibly bold and risky thing, because his entire plotline is terribly fake and I personally cannot see how GRRM even plans to make it any authentic and based. And brining back a fake Aegon is an unnecessary additional complication to an already overcomplicated plot. Sorry.

As for Tyrion, I will never ever understand how one comes to the conclusion with any previous consideration (we are in his head) that Blue haired kid is the son of Prince Rhaegar who is KNOWN to be dead, only because he has purple eyes. And once he does, HOW does he take so little interest and surprise in the question. It was just not right.

Maybe it's only me...

Oh and I have no idea how this Aegon is Illyrio's son, but that's my fault, I should read after things. Anyway, I don't see the motives... (Illyrio, fakeprince-ing his son, Daenerys/Drogo, Viserys... I just don't see the point, but surely, Illyrio does)

Nah its not just you. Tyrion's Sherlock Scan schtick beginning at that moment actually really pissed me off. How the fuck would Tyrion arrive to that conclusion? Unless of course, Tyrion himself thinks the kid is fake. (I also have an inexplicable liking for Aegon, fuck the police.)

There are very few, if any, "unexpected twists" in this story. There's paying attention to the clues you're given, and there's not, and then being surprised when things happen. But there is nothing so far that GRRM didn't foreshadow or hint at in some way, including Aegon being a fraud.

This is very true. Clues are littered everywhere in the series...for everything.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, he may be fake, but how did Dany get hold of a DNA test to be certain he is or is not "real" from miles away? And why would she not want to fry another Targaryen, standing to usurp everything she bled for since she was thirteen, anyway? She did not cry for her own brother. It's not a matter of anyone being real, it's a matter who has the loaded gun.

And that is exactly why the dude was introduced in the story to begin with. To create a very great conflict for Dany when she arrives. Dany being who she is, will decry the boy as a fraud. But her inner thoughts may question if he is real or not. Aegon's side isnt gonna give a fuck because they are already gonna name Dany a kinslayer for Viserys. (See Arianne's sample chapter for details.) The kid is gonna be A Problem for a lot of people but mostly Dany. Hence second Dance of the Dragons. I cant wait. /grabs popcorn

As for me, i wanted him to be real but its just too obvious he isnt. Part of me still wants him to be real, but alas...earwax. Who he is really? No idea. I cannot say im completely sold on the Blackfyre theory but im not ruling it out. Does it matter? Overall? Nah. Dude is a plot device.

[johnnysd]

Seems to me that narratively it makes more sense for Aegon to actually be real. It seems to fit with a lot of previous events in the story.

[Thrice Drowned Veteran]

If he is a blackfyre, then he's not a mummer's dragon. Not only because Blackfyres were said to be purer bred than Targaryens (Daeron and Martell Queen), but "Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon."

Even if he's not Rhaegar's son, he could still be a real dragon.

GRRM does love Red Herrings, however, so even this could be a farse. However, Young Griff already has many characters on his side, including Tyrion, believing he is Aegon, that it ultimately doesn't matter unless he dies. Joffrey was no Baratheon, but that didn't stop everyone from caring much about the fact.

The thing about Aegon's rescue story is that it is logical. The previous stories about the Queen and her children staying in the capital when it is under siege seem suspect. I understand Aerys was mad, but that didn't stop Willem Darry from spiriting away Viserys and Raehella & Dany. All the King's councilors would realize that leaving the heir in KL after Rhaegar fell would be political suicide. Varys making a switch would most likely be preferred by Elia as well, as she probably would not want both of her children murdered. Babies rarely have enough hair for them to recognize family traits, so baby Aegon would be the most logical switch to make.

Whether or not this actually happened can be answered, unfortunately, by only one man. Varys ... who is of dubious trustworthiness.

Also, why keep him separated from Viserys and his sister? Well, Viserys was crazy and unstable, so keeping him believing his nephew is dead is probably best for everyone. Moreover, probably necessary, lest he "wake the dragon."

Now, if Young Griff is not Aegon, he could be the ancestor any number of forgotten Targaryen or Blackfyre children, from Haegon Blackfyre's grandchildren to Aerion Brightflame's. Who he is descended from is really irrelevant if he truly is descended from any Targaryen. After all, Dany is supposedly barren, so why would she care if another relative seized the throne? This guy would already have a better claim than her if he's descended from Aerion, and arguably a better claim if he is a Blackfyre. Better yet, he can have children. Even if he is baseborn, and only looks like a targaryen, the mere fact of acceptance among the masses would be better than her sitting the throne, because she can't have children.

So, wherever your heart lies, if Young Griff is Aegon or not, it is in the best interest of the realm to simply believe he is Rhaegar's son, because that's what the realm needs. A Targaryen king to unite the kingdoms and bring stability and peace ... and fighting the Others, but that can only be achieved with the former.

[GGK1986]

Sorry I have to stop here. Robert DIDN'T hunt Viserys and Daenerys, not until Daenerys married Drogo and got pregnant. There were never any knives. Viserys was paranoid and also probably got off on believing Robert thought he was WORTH pursuing. Arguing that Robert would pursue Aegon the way he did Viserys and Dany doesn't work, because he DIDN'T pursue them.

There is a difference between a genuine "unexpected twist" (which as you said is the stuff of pulp), and only being surprised because you missed the clues. GRRM's "twists" are in the latter camp. Just about everything he does can be predicted if you know what to look for, including Aegon being fake.

It seems to me you have it all figured out. Tell me, how will this saga end?

[GGK1986]

If Aegon is fake, why would Varys lie to Kevan while ending his life, and not just tell the truth?

[Tywin Smokin a Blunt]

I never really bought it, didn't pick up on the Blackfyre connection though. If you put any stock in Quaithe's prophecy, its all right there. She calls Aegon "the mummer's dragon", which yes Varys was once a mummer, but no longer, so why not call him the spider's dragon, or the eunich's dragon? It would have been just as puzzling to Dany, but would still serve to foreshadow for the reader. But no, she calls him the mummer's dragon, because GRRM wants you to know that the whole thing is a farce.

[Tywin Smokin a Blunt]

Nah its not just you. Tyrion's Sherlock Scan schtick beginning at that moment actually really pissed me off. How the fuck would Tyrion arrive to that conclusion? Unless of course, Tyrion himself thinks the kid is fake. (I also have an inexplicable liking for Aegon, fuck the police.)

I dunno, I had my suspicions about who Young Griff was the moment he appeared, Tyrion's suspicions were completely founded. The whole situation didn't add up. I also think he knew better than to even believe Aegon's "true identity", thats why he gives him intentionally flawed advice.

[RhaenysBee]

Nah its not just you. Tyrion's Sherlock Scan schtick beginning at that moment actually really pissed me off. How the fuck would Tyrion arrive to that conclusion? Unless of course, Tyrion himself thinks the kid is fake. (I also have an inexplicable liking for Aegon, fuck the police.)

As I have pointed out before, I'm still missing some sort of inner comment from Tyrion on the matter. After all, that chapter is in his head. Even if Aegon is fake, the whole mummery or surprise (if he is real) should interest any human being more than, Ah, okay, you are Aegon, cool, I'll have another cup of wine.

[RedBean]

As I have pointed out before, I'm still missing some sort of inner comment from Tyrion on the matter. After all, that chapter is in his head. Even if Aegon is fake, the whole mummery or surprise (if he is real) should interest any human being more than, Ah, okay, you are Aegon, cool, I'll have another cup of wine.

He was already suspecting that Varys and Illyrio were up to something. Then he won a cyvasse game with Haldon Halfmaester and weaseled the truth out of him. It's ambiguous whether he believes that "Aegon" is the real one, though. His choice of words when talking about him - "Maybe he's a Targaryen after all" - shows that he may have some doubts about the matter.

[RhaenysBee]

He was already suspecting that Varys and Illyrio were up to something. Then he won a cyvasse game with Haldon Halfmaester and weaseled the truth out of him. It's ambiguous whether he believes that "Aegon" is the real one, though. His choice of words when talking about him - "Maybe he's a real Targaryen after all" - shows that he may have some doubts about the matter.

Yes, people already drew my attention to that. But I still find his lack of reaction strange.

[Myrish Swamp Thing]

Fake.

I thought: "Heh. Martin is too good a writer to come up with the true heir in the fifth book."

Basically, this. Going over the details have put me more firmly into the "fake" camp.

[Broken Fox]

Maybe a Blackfyre, but definitely not Rhaegar's son. Regardless, I don't think Westeros will ever know and simply accept him as Aegon Targaryen. That's all that matters in the end. I doubt he has long to live.

[RedBean]

Yes, people already drew my attention to that. But I still find his lack of reaction strange.

Tyrion isn't the type of guy to spazz out over shocking revelations. Plus, with so many candidates for King/Queen flying around, I'm sure he wasn't all that surprised to figure out the Varys and Illyrio had their own pawn for the position. The only thing different about Varys and Illyrio is that their plan was a lot more long-term.

[RhaenysBee]

Tyrion isn't the type of guy to spazz out over shocking revelations. Plus, with so many candidates for King/Queen flying around, I'm sure he wasn't all that surprised to figure out the Varys and Illyrio had their own pawn for the position. The only thing different about Varys and Illyrio is that their plan was a lot more long-term.

Probably it's me not having paid attention to what I was reading (since I was so messed up in hating Tyrion at that time), but I never quite got the hang of why Aegon is Illyrio and Varys's pawn. But I'm going on holiday soon and I'll make sure to get some reread time and order a cocktail every time Tyrion pisses me off in ADWD instead of not paying attention.

[Cas Stark]

If Aegon is fake, why would Varys lie to Kevan while ending his life, and not just tell the truth?

good point