Did you believe Aegon was fake from the start, or did you believe he was real?

[TheCrannogDweller]

Not really, considering that it relies on stuff that was out of Varys' control, being able to find a Valyrian-lookalike baby in Pisswater, that kid's father being willing to sell him for wine, the beneficial-in-hindsight fact that the baby's face was destroyed or that he was killed at all. The big question mark of why they couldn't just smuggle Aegon and Rhaenys out, get them to the Free Cities and not even bother with a switch.

The switch is something that was retconned with the benefit of hindsight, not something that actually happened.

Most of Varys' spy network consists of little kids. Why is it so hard to believe that one of those kids might have the Valyrian look, especially since we know that most of the Lyseni whores have it as well?

And even you cannot deny that Aegon was much more important (from a dynastyc point of view) than both his mother and his sister. Hence why he was the only one smuggled out.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Most of Varys' spy network consists of little kids. Why is it so hard to believe that one of those kids might have the Valyrian look, especially since we know that most of the Lyseni whores have it as well?

So did they buy a Valyrian-lookalike baby in Pisswater or was it one of Varys' little birds? Which is it? And if it's the latter, then that's already one lie in the story.

And even you cannot deny that Aegon was much more important (from a dynastyc point of view) than both his mother and his sister. Hence why he was the only one smuggled out.

My point is that they easily could have gotten both kids out, without even bothering to engineer a switch, and they didn't. Regardless of whether Aegon was more valuable, they could've gotten them both out, if they got one out.

That people demand evidence that he's fake, when we provide a pile of it, but are willing to take Varys and Illyrio's word that he's real, based on a fat pile of nothing, is hilarious to me and always has been.

[TheCrannogDweller]

So did they buy a Valyrian-lookalike baby in Pisswater or was it one of Varys' little birds? Which is it? And if it's the latter, then that's already one lie in the story.

Why not both? There is no slavery in Westeros, but it's not unheard of to buy kids for apprenticeship.

My point is that they easily could have gotten both kids out, without even bothering to engineer a switch, and they didn't. Regardless of whether Aegon was more valuable, they could've gotten them both out, if they got one out.

Again, smuggling a baby that almost no one outside the immediate family and servants has seen and leaving a double at its place allows Varys to raise that kid in relative safety and security, as opposed to Dany and Viserys.

Smuggling the Crown Prince's both kids on the other hand guarantees that they would be persecuted.

That people demand evidence that he's fake, when we provide a pile of it, but are willing to take Varys and Illyrio's word that he's real, based on a fat pile of nothing, is hilarious to me and always has been.

And to me it is hilarious how some people can be so confident in their deduction skills when we're talking about a story so full of unexpected twists.

[Jon Flowers]

The very fact that one is asked to disprove a nearly baseless, but for the word of a few who are not known for their honesty, assertion is perverse enough. It shouldn't be a surprise that the same people would ignore the very contrary evidence that they demand.

[Watcher_inthe_Woods]

I have always thought that Aegon is "fake". Too many things would have had to line up in just the right way in such a short amount of time for the baby swap to be plausible IMO. But I don't know who he is. The Blackfyre theory is a good one....my pet theory is that he is the great grand son of Aerion Brightflame.

[Stark Revenge]

What do you mean "at first"? I still believe he's Aegon - and will continue to until GRRM writes otherwise. :)

You and me both!

[Dr. Pepper]

Smuggling the Crown Prince's both kids on the other hand guarantees that they would be persecuted.

Just like Viserys and Dany were persecuted for all those years they spent staying with the leaders and wealthy merchants in the various free cities? Oh wait...

Any surviving heir of the deposed dynasty has the potential of being dangerous to the current dynasty. No one bothered to fake the deaths of Viserys and Dany to keep them off anyone's radar.

[The Mother of The Others]

stuff that's revealed so late in the running has got to be true.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Just like Viserys and Dany were persecuted for all those years they spent staying with the leaders and wealthy merchants in the various free cities? Oh wait...

Any surviving heir of the deposed dynasty has the potential of being dangerous to the current dynasty. No one bothered to fake the deaths of Viserys and Dany to keep them off anyone's radar.

Because they were the perfect smokescreen for Aegon. While they were visible, begging around the Free Cities, he could've been raised in secrecy. I really don't understand why that is so difficult to comprehend. It's a slight of hand, or a military tactic if you will - make the enemy look at your left hand, while you're acting against him with your right.

And Aegon was much more dangerous to Robert than Viserys ever was. Viserys was the Mad King's son and never managed to get support, while Aegon was the son of the beloved Crown Prince. There is a huge difference between the two from a PR perspective.

[The Bastard of Summer]

On this one I choose to take it at face value. I'm gonna go ahead and believe that this is really Elia and Rhaegar's son. Why? Just cause. There is so much of the story that can be theorized and discussed, and made to mean more than it really means until we are all blue in the face. So it it turns out he's not I won't be sorely disappointed. My second reason behind it is that since there is supposed to be a second dance, I want this one to be two real Targs instead of Targ vs Blackfyre. But even if he is a Blackfyre I want him to take one of Dany's dragons. Hopefully when the dance is over one dragon will be full of Khaleesee.

[Errant Bard]

And to me it is hilarious how some people can be so confident in their deduction skills when we're talking about a story so full of unexpected twists.

I did not encounter such a twist in that story yet.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And to me it is hilarious how some people can be so confident in their deduction skills when we're talking about a story so full of unexpected twists.

There are very few, if any, "unexpected twists" in this story. There's paying attention to the clues you're given, and there's not, and then being surprised when things happen. But there is nothing so far that GRRM didn't foreshadow or hint at in some way, including Aegon being a fraud.

[Faint]

I was anticipating a fake Aegon ever since I read the chapter in the House of the Undying from A Clash of Kings.

It didn't help that I've been following this forum for years, where many posters have been speculating about the same possibility for an even longer time than I have. It was also around this time that I found out the author was suspiciously hesitant about confirming that Aegon was dead, which was an even bigger red flag.

Then, of course, there is the fact that I have known about "Young Griff" since the sample chapters for A Dance with Dragons came out, which was many years before the book was published. Add all that up, and I was immediately suspicious when I began reading the story, which made all the clues easy to spot.

At that point, it just became an exercise in putting the puzzle pieces together, which was all the easier since it perfectly explained what Varys and Illyrio have been doing for the past twenty years, along with their motivations and so on.

[The Idiots Lantern]

If we weren't outright told by the author that there's a new Dance with Dragons coming, and if you couldn't predict that means it's gonna be Dany vs. Aegon, then I actually might consider that Aegon is real. As it is, if he WAS real, Dany would want to be on his side. So I predict she's going to see some evidence that proves to her that he's fake...BUT dorne's not going to believe it, and Aegon is going to refuse her demand that he renounce his claim, and we've got a dance.

[the Scorpion Knight]

While I'm 80% convinced Aegon is fake (although I don't want him to be) I'd like to think that Elia (or indeed, anyone) would fight to stop any baby from being brutally killed if she had the power to do so.

my thought too she knew gregor wre trouble for the child really aegon or not

The Blackfyre theory does a lot better explaining Illyrio and Varys' motivations. Placing a whore baby on the throne of a country that Illyrio has no reason to care about makes no sense. Illyrio is already an immensely wealthy man, the financial gain he could make off enthroning and be rewarded by Aegon is minimal considering what he has and considering that Illyrio has no heirs. However, it does make sense in the context of a dying wish of a wife he loved that their son sit the IT.

Aegon is either Aegon Blackfyre or Aegon the son of Rhaegor. No other explanation makes any sense.

well there's also the fact that illyrio worshipes the lord of light and a the vision that varys saw in the flames

[Errant Bard]

As it is, if he WAS real, Dany would want to be on his side.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, he may be fake, but how did Dany get hold of a DNA test to be certain he is or is not "real" from miles away? And why would she not want to fry another Targaryen, standing to usurp everything she bled for since she was thirteen, anyway? She did not cry for her own brother. It's not a matter of anyone being real, it's a matter who has the loaded gun.

[RhaenysBee]

Not really, considering that it relies on stuff that was out of Varys' control, being able to find a Valyrian-lookalike baby in Pisswater, that kid's father being willing to sell him for wine, the beneficial-in-hindsight fact that the baby's face was destroyed or that he was killed at all. The big question mark of why they couldn't just smuggle Aegon and Rhaenys out, get them to the Free Cities and not even bother with a switch.

The switch is something that was retconned with the benefit of hindsight, not something that actually happened.

If there were no switch, Tywin and co would know they are gone and hunt for them, like Robert hunted for Viserys and Daenerys. Also, ripping a baby boy of Aegon's age out of his mother's arms from the entire population of King's Landing/getting an orphan baby from an orphanage and giving it to Elia to nurse is not a difficult task at all. Do you seriously think anybody bothered to ask for the parents' permission or thought of their compensation after everything we have seen going on in this society? As for the baby's looks, it's totally irrelevant what the switch baby looks like, since neither Amory Lorch, nor Gregor Clegane knows much of babies, have seen Aegon before, are intelligent enough pay attention to the baby's looks.

Jon Snow and Gilly scene is there to prove how terribly easy it is to switch two babies and one could even say Martin included that to support the likability of Aegon baby-switch. Others may say Martin made up that line to mislead us concerning Aegon. Either way, the baby switch is absolutely possible and not difficult at all, the point about the baby's appearance just doesn't make sense.

There are very few, if any, "unexpected twists" in this story. There's paying attention to the clues you're given, and there's not, and then being surprised when things happen. But there is nothing so far that GRRM didn't foreshadow or hint at in some way, including Aegon being a fraud.

Unexpected twist is something you do not expect, because you missed the clues. A twist without clues is pulp fiction. I am glad to see there are people who read with such deep understanding and attention that they are not surprised at any plot twist. Wish more of us could do that.

[Veltigar]

I have always thought that Aegon is "fake". Too many things would have had to line up in just the right way in such a short amount of time for the baby swap to be plausible IMO. But I don't know who he is. The Blackfyre theory is a good one....my pet theory is that he is the great grand son of Aerion Brightflame.

Faegon is definitely a Blackfyre. But that doesn’t mean that he isn’t a Brightflame descendent to. Personally, I immediately thought that he was a fake because right before reading ADWD I couldn’t resist and read all the info I could find about “The Sworn Sword” and “TMK” (I know own a copy of both of them, but I couldn’t wait any longer back then) and that info was very heavy on the Blackfyre rebellion as we all know. So, I picked up a lot of the signals when reading about Faegon (the clothes, the statue, Illyrio’s fatherly affections, female line Blackfyre, Serra having Valyrian features). So, I immediately came to the conclusion Aegon = fake and a Blackfyre to top it off.

Anyways, I have always been a strong defender of the classical Blackfyre hypothesis (V--------S + I = FA), but lately I have had a change of heart about the matter and I’m know a staunch supporter of the Brightfyre-hypothesis.

The theory is basically this:

Faegon = son of Serra and Illyrio

Varys = Brother to Serra

Brightflame descendants = Varys, Serra and Faegon

Blackfyre descendants = Illyrio and Faegon

The beauty of this theory is that it incorporates all the clues that support the classical Blackfyre hypothesis and adds some extra evidence (Also, it’s a little bit more surprising than the classical Blackfyre-theory). The evidence pro Brightflame heritage:

1) Serra is from Lys. And Aerions bastard lived in Lys.

2) Faegons looks. I know ASOIAF-genetics are a bit quirky but it seems rather unlikely that Faegon would have the stereotypical Targaryen look, seeing that Serra only had a streak of silver hair and Illyrio has a yellow forked beard. Now, if Faegon has dragonblood from both sides that would make his looks more plausible.

3) It would give Illyrio some more motive. I mean if the classical theory is true, Illyrio is more of Varys’s henchman than an actual partner. If he turns out a Blackfyre to Varys Brightflame than they are more “even”.

4) Moqorro’s prophecy to Tyrion ‘Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all.’

ð True and false = Dany and Faegon (not really new) but what if:

=> Bright and dark means Brightflame and Blackfyre heritage?

5) Not really an argument but… it would be very Martinesque to let us think that we are right and that we figured him out and then just add another layer of deceit on top it.

This is basically all the evidence I have. If someone has something to add feel free. I was actually meaning to start a thread on this but I haven’t found the time yet.

[something tying in with this: Illyrio’s statue in his mance is described as holding a sword that shimmers like real steal. I know that it’s described as a Braavo blade and not a bastard sword but could this be the illustrious Blackfyre, like hidden away in plain sight?]

[MasterJack]

Varys first 3 book: I am fighting for the Realm, I am the good guy blablabla

Varys end book 5: I kill you because you are too skilled and youwill bring peace

He is a big fat liar and everything he said should be doubted: Oh you are suggesting LF convinced Joffrey to kill Ned? I am not so sure anymore

Oh you tell us Aegon is alive, after 16years.. BIG FAT LIAR.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

If there were no switch, Tywin and co would know they are gone and hunt for them, like Robert hunted for Viserys and Daenerys.

Sorry I have to stop here. Robert DIDN'T hunt Viserys and Daenerys, not until Daenerys married Drogo and got pregnant. There were never any knives. Viserys was paranoid and also probably got off on believing Robert thought he was WORTH pursuing. Arguing that Robert would pursue Aegon the way he did Viserys and Dany doesn't work, because he DIDN'T pursue them.

Unexpected twist is something you do not expect, because you missed the clues. A twist without clues is pulp fiction. I am glad to see there are people who read with such deep understanding and attention that they are not surprised at any plot twist. Wish more of us could do that.

There is a difference between a genuine "unexpected twist" (which as you said is the stuff of pulp), and only being surprised because you missed the clues. GRRM's "twists" are in the latter camp. Just about everything he does can be predicted if you know what to look for, including Aegon being fake.