Did you believe Aegon was fake from the start, or did you believe he was real?

[Ours if the Fury]

That's because the details are important.

Not sure if you realize this, but Rheagar was also the son of the mad king. If people can rally behind Rhaegar, why not an 8-year-old Viserys? Unless....they just stopped caring about supporting Targaryens after they were exiled.

This "PR" angle you are taking to try to show why hiding an Aegon for 15+ years was necessary is like non relevant logic. Agree to disagree on this one.

You know they most definatley could not rally behind the targs robert one the throne and he hated them anyone that supported them would have been destroyed. It is already known the martells are in support of them and me among others believe the tyrells are about to do the same thing so what you said makes no sense

[Dr. Pepper]

You know they most definatley could not rally behind the targs robert one the throne and he hated them anyone that supported them would have been destroyed. It is already known the martells are in support of them and me among others believe the tyrells are about to do the same thing so what you said makes no sense

Right back at ya. This isn't what the conversation was about at all.

[RhaenysBee]

He wouldn't get rid of them outright, they had their use. Namely, they could be used to invade Westeros and weaken Robert's army such that Aegon and the Golden Company would have an easy time of it when they landed. What would be easier: invading Westeros when Robert's army was at full strength, or doing so when it had already been weakened fighting the Dothraki? Aegon can show up, sweep "his aunt and uncle" and Robert aside and take minimal losses. He also looks like the hero for saving Westeros from the Dothraki and "protecting" them like Robert couldn't, which wouldn't be the case if he had just up and invaded.

There is no evidence that Illyrio had any clue that Daenerys could ever have hatched the dragon eggs, considering that it was a completely unforeseeable freak event.

If it still doesn't make any sense to you, I'm sorry, but I've explained it the best I can and I don't see what's so confusing about it.

Viserys and Dany = sideshow

Dothraki = meant to weaken Robert's forces and make him look bad

Aegon = swoops in, saves the day with minimal losses, takes over

Dragon eggs = Boat payment and/or a guarantor for Drogo that his money's being well-spent

No, like this, it makes perfect sense.

Dragon eggs for Daenerys so Aegon can have dragons

and

Daenerys and Viserys dying in the Dothraki sea

were the parts that didn't make sense with the other aspects. Without those two, it is whole and complete and makes absolute sense.

Maybe it made sense yesterday (or today previously) too, but it was 3 AM around here and I wasn't quite on top :) Thanks for explaining anyway, it was really nice of you. I could never quite put all the pieces together, nice that someone who can helped.

[The Storm King]

i still believe he's real :3

[Akintosh]

I didn't believe Aegon to be real back then because I thought it will be redundant. We already have a secret Targ on Jon, throwing another secret Targ out of Young Griff is just bad writing for me. I admit, it was my Jon bias that made me not buy the whole Aegon Targaryen thing at first.

And yeah, to know that the master planners of the whole thing are Varys and Illyrio is a big neon sign not to take it at face value.

------

I believe Illyrio gave Dany the three dragon eggs to showcase his "support" to her House. For both Illyrio and Dany, having someone that will give her practically the symbol of Targaryen is not only pleasing but also very convincing move to highlight one's loyalty. By establishing such loyalty, I think Illyrio was banking on that to further persuade her to take his "counsel".

For those people who are arguing that it's unreasonable for Illyrio to give Dany the dragon eggs while expecting her to die with Dothrakis if it only means establishing "loyalty to Targs" or ,as Apple Martini suggested, as a payment for transport , one should remember that Jorah was Varys' spy back then. If Dany died, Varys could easily instruct Jorah to retrieve the dragon eggs and give them back to him. I mean, from Illyrio's perspective, that is as good as having the dragon eggs back to his side considering he and Varys are in cohort. If Dany did use the eggs to buy transport, Illyrio is very rich! He can easily buy them back. Because really, for Illyrio, Dany having the dragon eggs was not really the point, him being the one to give them to her was.

[MRHD]

There was a line where Tyrion showed he knew Aegon wasn't the claimed son of Rhaegar, but it was subtle and I can't recall the wording offhand. It was something like "he could almost believe it" (not quite sure), I think in the chapter after he made it known to Jon Connington and co that he knew Aegon was "the king".

It was after the cyvasse game when Aegon tips over the board and tells Tyrion to pick up the pieces. Tyrion thinks something along the lines of "maybe he's a Targaryen after all", implying that Tyrion has his doubts on the matter. Anyways, this isn't really like R+L = J where it's a big secret that is only hinted at: we have characters outright calling Aegon a fake in the book (like in the final small council in the epilogue), so I think the reader is meant to question his identity, too.

Varys and his talk with Kevan is probably meant to make doubters doubt their doubt, but if Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant (and/or a descendant of Aerion Brightflame's trueborn son) and Varys is a Blackfyre, well then from Varys' perspective he is the real deal, the rightful Targaryen heir... just not real as in being Rhaegar's son, but what does that matter to Varys if Daeron and his descendants are usurpers?

[The Ghost Beyond the Wall]

I agree with grammaerys in that the revelation. That he is fake in the next book will be juxtaposed alongside rhaegars true son.. Who I'm hoping is jon

[Twinslayer]

Again, I bow down in respect in front of you for being capable of such deep understanding of symbols and hints that you can predict everything he writes. GRRM is a brilliant writer and so there are brilliant readers who are able to follow him...

Not untill, so in the end, he DID hunt her at some point, but that's really not what I wanted to say. Aegon being hunted or not by Robert or Tywin was an utterly marginal point of what I said, since I was arguing the low likelihood of the baby switch due to the parents and the baby's looks and not the question whether Aegon would be hunted or not.

You shouldn't retreat so quickly, you were right the first time. The Usurper did hunt Viserys and Dany from the very beginning. Here is what Barristan said to Dany about it:

You are watched, as you brother was. Lord Varys reported every move Viserys made, for years. Whilst I sat on the small council, I heard a hundred such reports.

So it's clear that Robert "hunted" Visyeris to the extent of keeping a close eye on Viserys' every move and as soon as Viserys gained an ally (Drogo), Robert made his move. It is reasonable to assume, as (I think) you did, that if Robert knew that Aegon had been whisked away to safety, he would have had Aegon hunted down and monitored in the same way.

Where we diverge is that I think Tywin figured out that Aegon had been switched and he ordered Gregor to smash the head of the "Pisswater Prince" to conceal his failure to kill the real Aegon. But that is the subject of a different thread.

[Alistair's Pantaloons]

I'm really indifferent to this kid. He's boring and pretty much powerless. Wish he would get Greyscale and die.

[adeadhand]

I bought it initially. I don't know if he's the real deal but the Blackfyre theory doesn't resonate for some reason; and I buy into a lot of crackpot theories.

Speaking of which, the Ashara Dayne=Septa Lemore theory gained traction upon another reading of ADWD. Lemore certainly appears to be someone pivotal. I wouldnt be surprised if she was Dornish.

Wouldn't it make some sense that Doran was given the heads up that his nephew was still alive? He didn't waste any time sending Arianne to meet him. Perhaps this was the plan for her ...she marries Aegon and Quentyn marries Dany.

[Jehane]

I didn't believe for one second that this is a real Targaryen. When his identity was revealed, I actually cringed and thought "OMG, how cheesy is THAT? He's gotta be fake." It just doesn't fit. Granted, Varys could swap babies, he's cunning enough, but there was absolutely nothing leading up to the revelation "Ta-da, here's yet another Targaryen to make things more interesting". Mostly, it's a feeling I have; it doesn't seem right to have another Targaryen introduced that late, it doesn't feel real - it's difficult to explain but it all boils down to this: I don't buy it.

[Master Forel's Fro]

I thought he was real till I came on here, and ppl had 10000 reasons why he's fake. On the other hand I've noticed a lot of Dany hate so maybe ppl just want him to be fake so Dany is the last Targ and she can die and that's the end of the Targs. I think he's real I don't care that he was introduced late until he's shown to be fake everything is just speculation not like anyone here knows for a fact.

[Jehane]

On the other hand I've noticed a lot of Dany hate so maybe ppl just want him to be fake so Dany is the last Targ and she can die and that's the end of the Targs.

That's an interesting thought, never occurred to me. I know there's a lot of Dany hate going on and even though she's awful in ADWD, I like her character a lot and would love to see her sit the Iron Throne - if she can shake off that obsession for Daario and her childish behaviour and act like a queen. Otherwise she'd be a terrible ruler and it'd be best to have another king/queen. We'll see how the Aegon storyline turns out. I think he's fake but cannot really back this up because, as I said before, it's just a feeling I have. Also, you can never be sure with GRRM, right? :)

[lentrix]

I though he might be 'real' when I first read the book - but having read through this forum and some of the great theories - I have decided that he must be fake.

[Veltigar]

About the eggs:

I always thought that the original plan of Varys and Illyrio was this:

1) Marry Dany to Drogo and give her eggs

2) Let Faegon, the GC and the Dothraki meet

3) Tell Viserys and Dany that Faegon is real (give some BS explanation about the knives of the usurper and that they had drawn attention away from Fageon). They will believe you because you are their ally (and because Viserys is dumb)

4) Faegon is recognized as rightful King. Drogo fights for him now.

5) Dany has three eggs. And guess what all of a sudden there are three Targs… Coincidence?

I think that Illyrio and Varys wanted Dany to share the eggs with Viserys and Faegon, thus showing that the “Targs” are united and also take away all doubts about Faegons parents.

6) You know have a Khalesar and the GC to invade Westeros. On top of that nobody could questions Faegon legitimacy. Added bonus: Both Faegon and Viserys are unwed. They are ideal candidates for a marriage alliance. My guess is that the original plan was: Viserys + Arianne = bring Dorne to Faegons side and Margaery + Faegon = bring Tyrells to their side.

Sadly, the war of the 5 kings started to early. Drogo and Viserys died and Dany hatched some dragons. So, the plans were changed.

[Maia]

I used to argue that Varys switched Aegon back after ACoK came out, so at first I thought that he was the real deal. And of course there are early hints that Varys and Illyrio must have had something up their sleeves, because there is no way somebody as shrewd as they are would have bet on Viserys being able to seize the throne, civil war due to a timely reveal of twincest and Dothraki invasion notwithstanding.

It was wholly implausible that they'd neglect to educate and mold their pet pretender in order to make his bid for the throne feasible.

And of course, with Varys being rightly suspicious of Tywin, arguing against letting him into KL, his many spies, knowledge of secret tunnels, disguise abilities, often expressed regret over the murders of Targ children, etc. he could have done it.

The switch of Mance's and Craster's babies seemed to be another strong hint in this direction.

But... That is all based on Varys being a Targ loyalist. And after ADwD it was clear that he wasn't. I mean, I used to dismissed Selmy's opinion on rot in Aerys's reign starting with Varys, but now there is no doubt that Varys prevented Rhaegar's attempt to take over at Harrenhal, which could have only been beneficial to the realm.

And also that he could have killed Aerys, if he truly wanted to save the dynasty. Heck, Aerys's death would have probably saved them up to the Trident and maybe even after it. I dare say that Tywin would have risked throwing in with them (and Tyrells and Martells, who were still loyal) even at that late date, if offered a de-facto rule of 7K until Aegon came of age.

So, ya, I have to conclude that Varys worked towards destruction of Targs, as he later worked towards the destruction of the Baratheon dynasty.

And of course, "the mummer's dragon", "dragons bright and dark", black iron dragon figure rusting red, etc. all hint at the Blackfyre connection, I agree.

And the irony of it is that Aegon is probably the child of whatever female Blackfyre descendant Lord Steffon Baratheon was sent to find in the Free Cities for Rhaegar. Hm... Now that I think about it... Varys has probably sabotaged that one too.

[The Bastard of Summer]

I didnt read through all the posts but, wouldnt it be possible for a baby switch if Varys knew that Tywin and his crew were coming, and had enough time to warn Aeys aginst it? But Pycelle of course told him Tywin was to be trusted. So Varys knew that Tywin being the snake that he is would play the king false, turn on him and his family. Tywin has proved he is not above killing babies and children (Reigns of Castemere anyone) before. Varys knew this and took the little time that he had to go to Elia and switch the babies? Yes I know there two children, but isnt it easier to smuggle a baby out instead of a baby and toddler? Easier to disguise a baby and harder to disguise a toddler everyone sees more often? Why would a mother agree to switching her baby? Why not try and both? Better to be able to save one than none at all right? And why not the "only" son of the now deceased crown prince?

[Versiroth]

it's not only you, how Tyrion came to that conclusion is beyond me.

Tyrion knows that something's amiss, but he doesn't guess that YG is Aegon. Holden Half Maester tells Tyrion after Tyrion wins a game of Cyvasse.

[RhaenysBee]

You shouldn't retreat so quickly, you were right the first time. The Usurper did hunt Viserys and Dany from the very beginning. Here is what Barristan said to Dany about it:

So it's clear that Robert "hunted" Visyeris to the extent of keeping a close eye on Viserys' every move and as soon as Viserys gained an ally (Drogo), Robert made his move. It is reasonable to assume, as (I think) you did, that if Robert knew that Aegon had been whisked away to safety, he would have had Aegon hunted down and monitored in the same way.

Where we diverge is that I think Tywin figured out that Aegon had been switched and he ordered Gregor to smash the head of the "Pisswater Prince" to conceal his failure to kill the real Aegon. But that is the subject of a different thread.

Oh well, I tend to give up debates easily against people who I know to be far more familiar with the story than I am. It's been ages since I read the books and I often catch myself mixing up show and book elements. But still, thanks for saying that, it's very thoughtful and nice :)

As for Tywin, whatever reason would Tywin have to keep silent about Aegon, I'm wondering...

[Not a kneeler]

I have swung back and forth on this question like a pendulum on a tall case clock. First I thought he was a fake based more on wishfull thinking than fact. I didn't want him to be real. Then I looked into the details of his story and it seemed to hang together. So, okay, good chance that he is what he says he is. Time passed and doubts set in. Now I am convinced he is false and this clock has stopped for good. There is simply no way this scenario could come to pass. There were witnesses. How would they put this one past Rhaella, for one, and all the servants? These people don't live like us. The halls are full of servants and they are not all in the pay of Varys. And people talk. The switch just doesn't make sense. And the whole thing just began to feel so contrived. I think Young Griff believes it, but I don't.

So now put my name down for once and all in the FG category.