R+L=J v.55

[Aderyn the Sly]

I agree with you here but if she's been dying for a week and has no idea when Ned comes, it seems like a long time to hold on for something you aren't even aware about. I'm not really convinced one way or the other. I am certainly convinced of R+L and came to that conclusion on my own. I just never got into this level of detail and I am simply bothered by the timing of Jon's birth vs Lyanna's death. If Jon had been born a girl, the KG would certainly have left to guard Viserys. Jon had to be born days earlier (although the timing i don't have down exactly), and the fact that the room smelled of blood and she was in her "bloody bed" when Ned arrived is suspect. I understand that "bloody bed" could just be birthing bed, but if she gave birth a week earlier, it seems a little confusing to still be referring to it as her birth bed. Who knows. It's the timing of Jon's birth and the fact that the KG stayed, which implies that Jon was born before Aerys died.

Thank you! But I wanted to mention that if Jon was born a girl, it wouldn't necessarily mean they would abandon her for Viserys. The daugther of the firstborn will still come before the second son. (Provided that the child is ligitimate, and Lyanna and Rhaegar were married) Although it would be another case where someone could challenge the line of succession, but maybe not since they were both children, versus if Viserys was a man grown...

[Ygrain]

In his work at the maternity hospital, Semmelweis noted the high death rate of women during childbirth. Historians report that Semmelweis's research into the causes of childbed fever was sparked by his hearing "the too-frequent ringing of a little bell as the priest came to give last rites to a dying mother." (Lots of traffic, such as one would find in a castle, not an isolated tower) Semmelweis noticed further that the rate of death was higher among women who actually delivered in the hospital than among those who had given birth at home with the help of a midwife or en route to the hospital... Source

And what are you trying to prove here, that the women were infected by the passing priests, and not by doctors who were commonly examining their vaginas with unwashed hands?

[Ygrain]

Thank you! But I wanted to mention that if Jon was born a girl, it wouldn't necessarily mean they would abandon her for Viserys. The daugther of the firstborn will still come before the second son. (Provided that the child is ligitimate, and Lyanna and Rhaegar were married) Although it would be another case where someone could challenge the line of succession, but maybe not since they were both children, versus if Viserys was a man grown...

Not in Targaryen succession. Women were practically excluded after the Dance of the Dragons.

[Jon Icefyre]

It wasn't necessarily the next morning - I oringinally had that same presumption. It just states that Jaime didn't see her after that night until the night she left for Dragonstone. But since she was still bruised and had lacerations of some king (that a wildbeast might have left) it's not too long after I would say maybe a matter of days or weeks, but certainly not months. If that was the night she was concieved, then it might even be less than nine months. But that isn't necessarily the last time Aerys paid his wife a visit before she left.

Lannister cloaks are crimson, more the color of dried blood than fresh. I think that its not unlikly to assume the silent sisters still attended to the dead children before they were presented to Robert. After the shape that Aegon's corpse would be in, rotting would likely have set in very fast otherwise, maybe in a matter of a single day. Ned arrived when Tywin was just about finished sacking the city, so possibly right as the children were dying. It would be Robert who would take longer to get there. And still, even if that wasn't that long you can't expect me to belive that Robert arrived in KL, took care of all the buissness and was corinated, within a day? And KL > SE > ToJ within two weeks? That seems unlikely. I think you are vastly underestimating the time it takes to travel, and the time it would take to sort out Storm's End. It's not like he showed up and the army was disbanned within hours or a day.

Again, if you're so convinced Lyanna didn't die of childbirth than can you please give us the reason you think she died and Ned finding her in a bed of blood that makes more sense? This is GRRM's world that has things like dragons and magic, he's already said that Westeros genetics isn't like real world genetics, so if he wants to create a situation that allows Lyanna to have died from giving birth to Jon that might seem like a bit of a stretch in the real world, then that's exactly what he's going to do. As realistic as it is concerning certain aspects of the story, at the end of the day ppl still have to remember this also a fantasy novel. Some ppl seem to think that if they think something in the story doesn't make complete sense in the real world then that's the end of discussion, but the bottom line is it's GRRM's story, and what he says goes. Other than Lyanna dying in a bed of blood there's other obvious evidence that Jon was at the TOJ, like Ned's 'promises' to Lyanna, the presence of the KG, the secrecy of the events at the TOJ, and the fact that Ned having a bastard goes against everything we know about the man.

So when you add all this up, and the fact that Ned found Lyanna dying in a bed of blood, when GRRM has given us textual examples in the series of "bed of blood" being associated with child birth, Lyanna dying from childbirth seems like the most likely scenario. But of course if you have a better reason for her dying in a bed of blood, we'd love to hear it..Btw the very fact that Ned says 'they' found him cradling the then dead Lyanna when Howland Reed was suppose to be the only other person alive at the TOJ at that point strongly suggests that there was another person other that Howland alive at the TOJ, so that person could've very well been a maester or a wet nurse, or both...

[Stannis Lives]

Bleeding continues for weeks even normally, and with puerperal fever, it is even excessive. The birthing process doesn't end with producing the baby, the puerperium period is an inseparable part of it.

Ok. I don't know anything about this but I assume it's been well researched. I'm still bothered by the timing of the birth. Jon had to be born before Aerys died, otherwise the KG would not be present. Is this what is generally accepted?

[Stannis Lives]

Not in Targaryen succession. Women were practically excluded after the Dance of the Dragons.

Right. So for me, this is the last question mark.

[Jon Icefyre]

I agree with you here but if she's been dying for a week and has no idea when Ned comes, it seems like a long time to hold on for something you aren't even aware about.

Who says she wasn't aware? Have you not seen the part on this these threads where the vast majority of R+L=J supporters believe Lyanna was indeed expecting Ned and most likely was secretly the one who sent for him?

[Jon Icefyre]

Correct on all points. I would only add that since Tywin is known to have presented the bodies of Rhaegar's children to Robert wrapped in red cloaks to disguise the blood, the implication is that Robert himself arrived very shortly after Ned, who arrived as the Sack was happening. Blood dries and turns brown pretty quickly and bodies start to decompose and "ripen"- it's highly unlikely that the bodies were kept in that state for days or weeks waiting for Robert's arrival. I've seen some good work done (this one is particularly useful, and well researched) on estimating travel speeds. A raven could have reached KL from the Trident in 2 days. Ned, "racing" south with the van, probably travelled about three times faster than the wheelhouse, making it about five days, which means he could have arrived at KL less than 3 days after Rhaella's departure. With Robert arriving on his heels, say within a day to account for the condition of the dead bodies, we are less than a week into the six week window Ned has to reach Lyanna from the Trident to the estimated time of her death. (This is arrived at by counting 4 weeks from sack- allowing Jon to be 8 months older than Dany- and adding a week for the fever to set in and a further week for it to prove fatal) I for one do not find it unrealistic that Ned travelled to SE, accepted the surrender of the Tyrell and his bannermen, and then travelled at top speed to the Tower of Joy all within five weeks. A forced march from KL to SE could have brought him there in ten days with a small force. Seven riders at top speed could make the distance from SE to ToJ in under two weeks. That leaves plenty of time left over for accepting surrenders, sending ravens, sleeping and perhaps even a tea party or two ;)

:agree:

[Aderyn the Sly]

I'm afraid I do not follow your point.

It helps to prevent the spreading of infectious diseases. It doesn't affect whether a person gets sepsis or not.

Quote, please? I can't recall this one.

Bleeding continues for weeks even normally, and with puerperal fever, it is even excessive. The birthing process doesn't end with producing the baby, the puerperium period is an inseparable part of it.

If you look at the quote I was responding to, they were saying that since MMD was telling Dany about the "bloody bed" that it was a "hint" that Lyanna's bloody bed was childbirth. It could be a deathbed instead of a birthing bed. My point was that all births are bloody but not all bloody beds need be childbirth beds.

And infection is what causes spesis...a severe infection that causing inflamation.

And here is the quote from Tyrion's POV in GoT:

Summer has lasted nine years, Tyrion, and a tenth will soon be upon us.

And from Bran's PoV:

It was the ninth year of summer, and the seventh of Bran's life.

14 years, nine of which were summer, springs and autumns are described as short. Trying to find the quote of Jon an Rob being born at the end of winter, but I don't even remember which book it was. (one of the first three though, I think).

[Twinslayer]

Dunno about GRRM ever specifically confirming what Daenerys says, and she is not witness to the event, that she was born nine moons after her mother fled to Dragonstone. Pausing for a moment, we know that the pyromancer was made Hand and that the former Hand was burned the day that Aerys raped Rhaella. That day had seen the arrival of the news of the Trident, the news that made Aerys decided to set wildfire throughout King's Landing.

I don't want to quibble, because I agree with your conclusion, but Dany was conceived before Rhaegar left KL for the Trident. Jonathor Darry, who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident, was standing outside Rhaella's bedchamber with Jaime when it happened. Jaime's memory of his words to Darry and Darry's words back to him is too vivid to be unreliable.

So Dany was conceived at least two weeks before the Sack. (One week for Darry to get from KL to the Trident, one week for Ned to get from the Trident to KL). Meaning that Jon was born anywhere from about a month before the Sack up until the day of the Sack itself. That still gives Ned -- barely -- enough time to get to Storm's End and down to the TOJ just in time to see Lyanna die, but only if it was 8 months rather than 9.

[Dr. Pepper]

Ok. I don't know anything about this but I assume it's been well researched. I'm still bothered by the timing of the birth. Jon had to be born before Aerys died, otherwise the KG would not be present. Is this what is generally accepted?

I think it's generally accepted that Jon had been born by the time the KG at the TOJ found out about Aerys being dead. News doesn't travel instantaneously. It would have taken time for ravens to fly, then word being sent to an isolated tower that likely did not have ravens trained to fly to it.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Lannister cloaks are crimson, more the color of dried blood than fresh. I think that its not unlikly to assume the silent sisters still attended to the dead children before they were presented to Robert. After the shape that Aegon's corpse would be in, rotting would likely have set in very fast otherwise, maybe in a matter of a single day. Ned arrived when Tywin was just about finished sacking the city, so possibly right as the children were dying. It would be Robert who would take longer to get there. And still, even if that wasn't that long you can't expect me to belive that Robert arrived in KL, took care of all the buissness and was corinated, within a day? And KL > SE > ToJ within two weeks? That seems unlikely. I think you are vastly underestimating the time it takes to travel, and the time it would take to sort out Storm's End. It's not like he showed up and the army was disbanned within hours or a day.

Dried blood is brown not crimson . Who said anything about a coronation? Ned departed KL in a red rage immediately after seeing Robert's reaction to the dead children. It took the intervention of Jon Arryn after the war was completely over to reconcile them. Ned certainly didn't wait around for any ceremony. IMO it's much more likely Jon Arryn perceived the rage and to avoid a permanent rift between the two young men sent Ned off to SE to raise the siege posthaste. I did not suggest KL > ToJ in two weeks. Please reread the post- I said KL to SE (which sermountaingoat estimates to be 480 miles) in ten days at a forced march (something Robert Baratheon was reknowned for) SE to ToJ is estimated at under 650 miles. I suggested that 7 riders at top speed could make that distance in two weeks. If you allow 5 days for Ned to travel from the Trident to KL, you arrive at 29 days total travel time and still have a total of two weeks left in the six week window for events to unfold at KL and SE while Ned was at each location.

[Jon Icefyre]

Thank you! But I wanted to mention that if Jon was born a girl, it wouldn't necessarily mean they would abandon her for Viserys. The daugther of the firstborn will still come before the second son. (Provided that the child is ligitimate, and Lyanna and Rhaegar were married) Although it would be another case where someone could challenge the line of succession, but maybe not since they were both children, versus if Viserys was a man grown...

Actually no you're dead wrong on this, after the Dance of Dragons war, the Targs changed the line of succession and made it so that all legitimate Targ males come before any Targ females in the line of succession, no matter how far down the line the male is. So the second son of the king would always come before the daughter of the crowned prince....

[Dr. Pepper]

14 years, nine of which were summer, springs and autumns are described as short. Trying to find the quote of Jon an Rob being born at the end of winter, but I don't even remember which book it was. (one of the first three though, I think).

This past summer lasted nine years, which was unusually long. It was an abnormality and everyone discusses it as such. Tyrion was born in a winter that last three years and was described as terrible and cruel, which indicates it was an abnormally long winter. Tyrion has experienced eight or nine winters. Jon says he had been a babe in arms when this summer began. He was 14 at the start of the books, 15 soon after he arrive at the wall. Meaning, he was about 4-5 when the summer started, so not literally a babe in arms. He just simply did not remember. This does not mean that the previous winter lasted 4-5 years. There was at least a full season cycle between Harrenhal and the start of the nine-year summer. Plus, I don't think full armies could be supported with only the leftovers of a winter store.

[MtnLion]

It wasn't necessarily the next morning - I oringinally had that same presumption. It just states that Jaime didn't see her after that night until the night she left for Dragonstone. But since she was still bruised and had lacerations of some king (that a wildbeast might have left) it's not too long after I would say maybe a matter of days or weeks, but certainly not months. If that was the night she was concieved, then it might even be less than nine months. But that isn't necessarily the last time Aerys paid his wife a visit before she left.

"Jaime had only seen Rhaella once after that, the morning of the day that she left for Dragonstone." It can be the next morning, and it is never stipulated any other way. Or, so you have some information that you would like to share regarding this. Since Jaime is the only Kingsguard in King's Landing, are you suggesting that Aerys wandered around, after the Trident, without his Kingsguard?

[Twinslayer]

I agree with you here but if she's been dying for a week and has no idea when Ned comes, it seems like a long time to hold on for something you aren't even aware about. I'm not really convinced one way or the other. I am certainly convinced of R+L and came to that conclusion on my own. I just never got into this level of detail and I am simply bothered by the timing of Jon's birth vs Lyanna's death. If Jon had been born a girl, the KG would certainly have left to guard Viserys. Jon had to be born days earlier (although the timing i don't have down exactly), and the fact that the room smelled of blood and she was in her "bloody bed" when Ned arrived is suspect. I understand that "bloody bed" could just be birthing bed, but if she gave birth a week earlier, it seems a little confusing to still be referring to it as her birth bed. Who knows. It's the timing of Jon's birth and the fact that the KG stayed, which implies that Jon was born before Aerys died.

It is a little trickier than that. If you believe that the KG would have had to have gone to Viserys the moment they heard Aerys and Rhaegar were dead but did not because Jon was legitimate, then you need to believe that the sequence was as follows: (1) Jon is born (male), (2) the KG learn that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon (who is not mentioned by Ned or the KG at the TOJ) are dead and that Viserys and Rhaella are without KG protection, (3) Ned arrives, then (4) Lyanna dies.

[Jon Icefyre]

Dried blood is brown not crimson . Who said anything about a coronation? Ned departed KL in a red rage immediately after seeing Robert's reaction to the dead children. It took the intervention of Jon Arryn after the war was completely over to reconcile them. Ned certainly didn't wait around for any ceremony. IMO it's much more likely Jon Arryn perceived the rage and to avoid a permanent rift between the two young men sent Ned off to SE to raise the siege posthaste. I did not suggest KL > ToJ in two weeks. Please reread the post- I said KL to SE (which sermountaingoat estimates to be 480 miles) in ten days at a forced march (something Robert Baratheon was reknowned for) SE to ToJ is estimated at under 650 miles. I suggested that 7 riders at top speed could make that distance in two weeks. If you allow 5 days for Ned to travel from the Trident to KL, you arrive at 29 days total travel time and still have a total of two weeks left in the six week window for events to unfold at KL and SE while Ned was at each location.

Exactly, great points! :thumbsup:

[Aderyn the Sly]

And what are you trying to prove here, that the women were infected by the passing priests, and not by doctors who were commonly examining their vaginas with unwashed hands?

A vastly misconstrued interpretation of what I was saying. Lyanna is isolated which reduces the chances of infection.

And I'm saying that by GRRM putting Jon's Birth 8 or 9 months after Dany creates a timeline in which Lyannas death is weeks after Jon's birth, and therefore the cause of her death is soemthing else. Everyone here is interpreting the facts (or lack of them in some cases) to claim that there is no issue with the timeline, and making very unrealistic leaps IMO. That doesn't necessarily mean that R+L=J is false.

The only explination that I can think of (which isn't necessarily the only one) that that Lyanna being the wild child she was wouldn't have sat meekly aside while her brother was fighting a (supposedly) loosing battle. Her bed of blood could be her deathbed and blood from her wounds. Fever from infection still, but of a different kind. It's not a perfect theory but it makes more sense than childbirth.

[SFDanny]

Yes GRRM said repeatedly that he is no Tolken when it comes to such things. However, the 8 or 9 months doesn't seem to be in the ballpark even. He said repeatedly that Dany was born 9 months after fleeing KL during a storm. Why then would he say Jon was born 8 or 9 months before unless trying to clearly give us a hint that it wasn't in childbed that Lyanna died (if she is Jon's mother). He just as easily could have said 7 or 8 and there would be less speculation. Even 8 supposed that Ned could go through a warzone from the Trident to KL, secure KL, arrange and hold Robert's corination (not that he had to have planned it all, but we know he was there until after), lifted the seige in Storm's End, and get to the ToJ within a month of the Trident. And that seems highly suspect to me.

First, there is a huge difference between Martin's dates of when Daenerys is born and when Jon is born relative to her birth. Daenerys's birth is put forward in the series as part of the story and as such we can say that Martin had access to his notes, and we can give a high degree of certainty to the "nine moons" after the flight from King's Landing as an accurate timeframe for Daenerys's birth. As important as Martin's remarks are about Jon's birth relative to Daenerys's birth are to trying to figure out a host of things they fall into an entirely different category. He is responding to a reader's question without access to his notes and gives an estimate and eliminates a longer period of time as a possibility. Here we are clearly working with estimates. Eight or nine months could mean 7 and a half months or nine and a half months or more or less. Martin never again gives us this estimate, as far as I know, and I think for good reason - he let something slip he didn't want to. Be that as it may, we are limited by the inexactitude of these figures in trying to figure out a timeline of events. Add to this, that Martin is notorious for wanting things to be "loose" in timing, and his ability to speed things up beyond the what would be possible in the real world when he wants to, and what we have is a mess for those of us who have tried to do what you are doing. I know it is frustrating, as one who has spent some time on this, but I don't think it is possible to nail down this timeline without more information from the author. The best we can do is rule out things that fall outside the rather fuzzy limits Martin has set us.

Now that doesn't mean we shouldn't try our best to find ways to refine the timeline, but here I think it is a problem to be careful about putting in assumptions that skew the timeline but aren't warranted. You maybe right in your assumptions about some of the timing, for instance, of how long it took Robert to travel to King's Landing, but I think I've shown it doesn't have to be so. I could do the same with some of Mt. Lion's assumptions, but his guess maybe right on some of these dates. They are still our assumptions, however. Whenever someone starts with"let's assume" and then builds a case based on it, I want to make sure those assumptions are as rock solid as possible. I don't think you've done that enough to eliminate the possibility of Lyanna dying from childbirth complications. Not by a long shot.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

In his work at the maternity hospital, Semmelweis noted the high death rate of women during childbirth. Historians report that Semmelweis's research into the causes of childbed fever was sparked by his hearing "the too-frequent ringing of a little bell as the priest came to give last rites to a dying mother." (Lots of traffic, such as one would find in a castle, not an isolated tower) Semmelweis noticed further that the rate of death was higher among women who actually delivered in the hospital than among those who had given birth at home with the help of a midwife or en route to the hospital... Source

The problem was with the doctors' dirty hands (which is the point of the passage you quote, if you read the entire thing.) The doctors IRL were in the hospitals. If the women had stayed home and delivered with a midwife while surrounded by all the women from their family and neighbors as was tradition, they would have died at a much lower rate. If a woman in an isolated tower gave birth and a maester introduced his dirty hands into her birth canal, she would contract an infection and die at the same rate as women being treated in hospital in the 19th century.

So I have to know the correct answer to say that this theory doesn't make sense? That's lovely.

No, but you should be able to offer a reasonable alternative that does make sense. I'd be interested to hear it.