R+L=J v 58

[J. Stargaryen]

I don't think Egg or Young Griff are that comparable here. Like I asked, are they going to dye this child's hair blue, or shave it off? Is Ned not going to wonder where this random blue-haired baby came from?

I know you're stuck on the Aegon-at-the-Tower thing, but I am telling you, it does not pass the derp test. Or at least, it doesn't pass the derp test nearly as well as the idea that Aegon died in King's Landing, Young Griff is a fake and that Jon was the only baby at the Tower.

All the more reason to think this is a weak idea. It's one thing to successfully switch a year-old baby during the chaos of the Sack. It's another thing entirely to switch out a baby and have it stay under wraps for weeks or months.

Not only that, but in a series so densely packed with clues and symbolism, we really ought to be able to find one or the other indicating Aegon's presence at the ToJ. If you can't find any hints for your theory anywhere in the story, it's probably not an actual mystery in ASoIaF.

[Alia of the knife]

Whose clothing was Tyrion borrowing when staying with Illryio?

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Whose clothing was Tyrion borrowing when staying with Illryio?

I assume YG's

[Twinslayer]

I will add to the chorus of people who doesn't think that Aegon was hidden at the ToJ. As other posters have rightly pointed out, it would make no logistical sense to put all your eggs (heirs) into one basket - if they wanted to protect Aegon they would keep both boys separate. Look to examples in history for that. We were discussing the parallels between ASoIaF and Star Wars recently, in particular Luke Skywalker and Jon Snow - and looking at the twins scenario, Leia and Luke are separated at birth in order to protect them from the Emperor. It is much easier to hide one baby than it is two. Who would have been expected to be responsible for both these babies in the event that worst case scenario occurs?

I realise that Rhaegar expected or hoped to return from the Trident alive, but it cannot be denied that he had a 50-50 chance of getting out alive. He must have considered the worst case scenario if Robert won and if the rebels advanced thereafter. Holling Lyanna and co at the ToJ must have been a short-term solution and he probably thought that if the worst happened, Elia and the children would have been allowed to go to Dragonstone with Viserys and Rhaella. Ergo, I think that this is what he had in mind for Aegon - not sending him to the ToJ.

Ned laments the fate that befell the two Targeryan children quite clearly in his POVs. I think that if there was a possibility that Aegon would have been at the ToJ, there would be some foreshadowing of it. Do we have any (apart from the baby swapping thing)? I'm not aware of anything but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Let me add that I am in the camp that has serious doubts (now, post-ADWD) that Aegon was at the TOJ when Ned got there, but in the spirit of continuing to explore the possibility let me pick up on a few points you and others have raised.

First, putting Aegon and Jon at the TOJ isn't putting all your treasures in one purse. When Rhaegar died at the Trident, so far as he knew there were 5 or 6 Targs left with claims to the Iron Throne (depending on whether Jon was legit). Putting two at the TOJ (Aegon and the son or daughter Lyanna was expecting); two in KL (Aerys and Rhaenys); and two on Dragonstone (Viserys and Rhaella) would make a lot of sense. It is not the only course that makes sense, but it is not illogical. Also, not knowing what Jon's gender would be, the only question was whether Lyanna's baby would be third in line (after Aerys and Aegon but before Viserys, Rhaenys and Rhaella) or fifth in line (after Aerys, Aegon, Viserys, and Rhaenys but before Rhaella).

Second, if Jon was illegitimate, there would only be one heir at the TOJ. So that's only one treasure in that purse.

Third, I am not convinced that Ned thought Aegon was dead. Sure, he thinks about the "red ruin" of Aegon's skull, but he's remembering what he believed at the time, and possibly worrying about what will happen if Robert finds out that Aegon is not really dead.

Also, the other thing he remembers doing on the day he supposedly saw the "red ruin" of Aegon's skull was to leave KL to fight the last "battles" of the war, but so far as we know he fought in no "battles" after that day. This seems to be a memory of something he thought on the day itself but which he knows in hindsight did not really happen.

It has been suggested in the past that Ned left KL believing that he was on his way to fight battles that would never actually happen. Applying the same logic, he may remember believing that he saw Aegon dead while he in fact knows this is not what actually happened.

[MtnLion]

By no means. Rhaegar didn't want Aerys to use Aegon as a hostage, and his staunchest men were at ToJ.

You lost sight of when Aerys decides to use Elia as hostage, and are transferring that action to Aegon, which is not a supported line. Rhaegar left for the Trident fully expecting to return in triumph. No need to do anything silly beforehand, he even leaves Jaime as his father desires.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

You lost sight of when Aerys decides to use Elia as hostage, and are transferring that action to Aegon, which is not a supported line. Rhaegar left for the Trident fully expecting to return in triumph. No need to do anything silly beforehand, he even leaves Jaime as his father desires.

Yeah, I think that's a situation where Rhaegar, even if — maybe even especially if — he's planning to get Aerys to abdicate, is not going to rock the boat any more than he has to. Trying to sneak Aegon out of the capital isn't rocking the boat, it's sinking it.

[MtnLion]

I'm lost. Jaime kills Aerys. Darry flees with Viserys. Nothing to do.

If you want to apply your analysis to the conversation at the tower, make sure that you do all of the lines, not just the ones that you have your own personal answer for. They earlier int he passage espouse complete support for Aerys, that does not coincide with the words you are putting into their mouths in your selected transcription.

[MtnLion]

With all respect, MtnLion, this is nonsense. I've shown why it makes all the logical sense in the world for Rhaegar to want his son removed from his father's control. Aerys freaking threatens Aegon's safety. The man is nuts and has shown himself to be murderously so. What kind of "logical sniff test" are you applying here? One where what you don't want to be obviously true is dismissed? Kindly deal with what I've written.

Does he? I don't recall that. I know that Aerys is holding Elia hostage.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

Does he? I don't recall that. I know that Aerys is holding Elia hostage.

That includes the children as well. Which is why they also remained at KL instead of going to Dragonstone with Rhaella.

[MtnLion]

Also, the other thing he remembers doing on the day he supposedly saw the "red ruin" of Aegon's skull was to leave KL to fight the last "battles" of the war, but so far as we know he fought in no "battles" after that day. This seems to be a memory of something he thought on the day itself but which he knows in hindsight did not really happen.

It has been suggested in the past that Ned left KL believing that he was on his way to fight battles that would never actually happen. Applying the same logic, he may remember believing that he saw Aegon dead while he in fact knows this is not what actually happened.

Not all of the battles are chronicled, and the road to Storm's End could have had battles that Ned does not reflect on. There is the final battle for Dragonstone that Ned charges Stannis with, too. Logically saying that there are no battles because they are absent in the text is not a good argument, because Ned said there were more battles, just obviously not significant enough to worry about.

[MtnLion]

That includes the children as well. Which is why they also remained at KL instead of going to Dragonstone with Rhaella.

That is after the Trident. Big difference in the argument that Rhaegar (who btw died at the Trident) would have had motive to move the children, and wouldn't have wanted all three safe. Also, it is not specific that the children were being held, but that Elia was being held and the children stayed with her.

[Twinslayer]

Not only that, but in a series so densely packed with clues and symbolism, we really ought to be able to find one or the other indicating Aegon's presence at the ToJ. If you can't find any hints for your theory anywhere in the story, it's probably not an actual mystery in ASoIaF.

I don't follow this point. The first big hint is the clue that he is probably still alive -- in ASOIAF, people who aren't confirmed dead are usually still alive. If he is still alive, he must have been hidden somewhere that wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. There aren't a lot of other places that might be.

The second is that we know that Rhaegar thought Aegon was the PWWP. When Rhaegar left for the Trident, he knew that Tywin wasn't coming to help. So if he lost, there would be nothing standing between the rebels and KL -- nothing standing between the rebels and the PWWP -- except a few Gold Cloaks and the Mud Gate. We also know that Aerys was explicitly threatening Aegon's life. He "gracelessly" reminded Lewyn Martell that he "held" Elia n-- which means by implication that he held Elia's children -- as hostages against Dorne's behaviour. He did it openly enough that Jaime knew about it. Then Lewyn and Rhaegar marched together to the Trident. I call all of that a clue that Rhaegar had every reason to get the PWWP out of King's Landing. The question is where Rhaegar would send the PWWP? There aren't a lot of good possibilities, and we know that it wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. Again, this is a clue that he might have been at the TOJ.

Another big clue is the fact that when they meet at the TOJ, neither Ned nor the KG suggest that Aegon is somewhere else. There is a lot of emphasis on this thread on the idea that they are hinting that there is a reason they aren't with Viserys. Why don't the KG say anything about why they aren't with Aegon?

Then there is the idea that the dragon has three heads. That is a hint that there may be three "dragons" out there. There is only one confirmed dragon and that is Dany. So we are supposed to be looking for two more dragons. (Note, this is not to say that there will be two other dragons, or that dragons have to be legitimate Targs rather than Blackfyres or other Targ bastards, but it is a cluet that there may be other Targ descendents out there).

Finally, if you believe that the KG were at the TOJ because they were guarding Aerys' heir -- which I don't believe -- how is that not a clue that Aegon is in the tower? If that can be construed as a hint that Jon is legitimate, why isn't it an even stronger hint that Aegon (who comes before Jon in the succession any way you look at it and who is unaccounted for in the Ned/KG discussion) is at the TOJ?

[MtnLion]

I don't follow this point. The first big hint is the clue that he is probably still alive -- in ASOIAF, people who aren't confirmed dead are usually still alive. If he is still alive, he must have been hidden somewhere that wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. There aren't a lot of other places that might be.

The second is that we know that Rhaegar thought Aegon was the PWWP. When Rhaegar left for the Trident, he knew that Tywin wasn't coming to help. So if he lost, there would be nothing standing between the rebels and KL -- nothing standing between the rebels and the PWWP -- except a few Gold Cloaks and the Mud Gate. We also know that Aerys was explicitly threatening Aegon's life. He "gracelessly" reminded Lewyn Martell that he "held" Elia n-- which means by implication that he held Elia's children -- as hostages against Dorne's behaviour. He did it openly enough that Jaime knew about it. Then Lewyn and Rhaegar marched together to the Trident. I call all of that a clue that Rhaegar had every reason to get the PWWP out of King's Landing. The question is where Rhaegar would send the PWWP? There aren't a lot of good possibilities, and we know that it wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. Again, this is a clue that he might have been at the TOJ.

I forget, how does the conversation between Jaime and Rhaegar go, as Rhaegar is leaving for the Trident? "When I fall at the Trident . . ."?

"He "gracelessly" reminded Lewyn Martell that he "held" Elia" means the children, too, because you want Rhaegar to have a motive before he leaves, convinced that he will return victoriously? Naw, come on.

[Twinslayer]

Anything is possible, but if we are talking about reasonable inferences, I personally think it's more reasonable to believe that the KG found out about Aegon's fate, as there was plenty of time for them to receive that information, from presumably the same presently unknown source that let them know about what happened at KL. ;)

You may very well be right. If the message left KL after Ned did, then it would include information about the death of Aerys and the supposed death of Aegon. Or, there could have been two separate messages sent to the TOJ from KL a few days apart, the first saying that Aerys was dead and the second one saying that Aegon was dead too.

However, if there was only one message and it left KL after Aerys died but before Tywin revealed the supposed death of Aegon, then the KG would have no reason to know about Aegon.

We don't know how much time passed between the death of Aerys and the revelation of the supposed death of Aegon, but it was probably a few days. Remember, Ned raced to KL with the vanguard right after the Trident. Robert, who was wounded, followed later. Tywin unveiled the childrens' bodies after Robert arrived. I would think that whoever in KL was providing the TOJ with information would send a message as soon as the city fell and Aerys was dead. They would not wait a few days to do that.

So we have three plausible scenarios: (1) the KG had no idea whether Aegon was dead or alive, (2) the KG believed Aegon was dead but they just never mentioned it in their discussion with Ned, or (3) the KG knew Aegon was alive, possibly because they had him. None of these possibilities can be either proven or ruled out based on the information that is currently available.

[MtnLion]

So we have three plausible scenarios: (1) the KG had no idea whether Aegon was dead or alive, (2) the KG believed Aegon was dead but they just never mentioned it in their discussion with Ned, or (3) the KG knew Aegon was alive, possibly because they had him. None of these possibilities can be either proven or ruled out based on the information that is currently available.

That Ned labeled Viserys Prince pretty much spells it out for me. That the group acknowledges that Willem is not Kingsguard also confirms it, and that they have knowledge of Aegon's death.

[J. Stargaryen]

I don't follow this point. The first big hint is the clue that he is probably still alive -- in ASOIAF, people who aren't confirmed dead are usually still alive. If he is still alive, he must have been hidden somewhere that wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. There aren't a lot of other places that might be.

For the third time recently, Aegon being alive does not =/= Aegon being at the ToJ.

The second is that we know that Rhaegar thought Aegon was the PWWP. When Rhaegar left for the Trident, he knew that Tywin wasn't coming to help. So if he lost, there would be nothing standing between the rebels and KL -- nothing standing between the rebels and the PWWP -- except a few Gold Cloaks and the Mud Gate. We also know that Aerys was explicitly threatening Aegon's life. He "gracelessly" reminded Lewyn Martell that he "held" Elia n-- which means by implication that he held Elia's children -- as hostages against Dorne's behaviour. He did it openly enough that Jaime knew about it. Then Lewyn and Rhaegar marched together to the Trident. I call all of that a clue that Rhaegar had every reason to get the PWWP out of King's Landing. The question is where Rhaegar would send the PWWP? There aren't a lot of good possibilities, and we know that it wasn't Dragonstone or Sunspear. Again, this is a clue that he might have been at the TOJ.

We think that Rhaegar thought Aegon was the PtwP when he was born, according to the HotU. Beyond that, you're speculating.

Also, why are you assuming Rhaegar had a contingency plan for losing? He seemed awfully confident that he was going to be victorious against the rebels. AFfC, Jaime I:

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime’s shoulder. “When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return.”

Another big clue is the fact that when they meet at the TOJ, neither Ned nor the KG suggest that Aegon is somewhere else. There is a lot of emphasis on this thread on the idea that they are hinting that there is a reason they aren't with Viserys. Why don't the KG say anything about why they aren't with Aegon?

As I already explained, the conversation focuses on locations. Since Aegon was supposed to be KL, his location was covered by the "When King's Landing fell..." line. There is no need to ask about Aegon and Rhaenys since the answer is the same as it is for Aerys; the KG were "Far away."

The logical continuation of Ned later asking about Viserys is that he's considering the Targaryen succession, which means he thinks Aegon is dead.

Then there is the idea that the dragon has three heads. That is a hint that there may be three "dragons" out there. There is only one confirmed dragon and that is Dany. So we are supposed to be looking for two more dragons. (Note, this is not to say that there will be two other dragons, or that dragons have to be legitimate Targs rather than Blackfyres or other Targ bastards, but it is a cluet that there may be other Targ descendents out there).

And yet again, even if the real Aegon is alive, that does not in any way place him at the ToJ. I'm going to ask nicely: please stop conflating the two.

Finally, if you believe that the KG were at the TOJ because they were guarding Aerys' heir -- which I don't believe -- how is that not a clue that Aegon is in the tower? If that can be construed as a hint that Jon is legitimate, why isn't it an even stronger hint that Aegon (who comes before Jon in the succession any way you look at it and who is unaccounted for in the Ned/KG discussion) is at the TOJ?

Because the KG believed that Aegon was dead, as per reports from KL.

Remember, Ned saw the dead children, so there is plenty of time for that news to reach the ToJ. There's no reason to think that whatever communication the ToJ was receiving wouldn't have passed along news of Aegon's death. That's an unnecessary complication introduced to try and explain why this (non)theory could possibly be viable, when it appears at every turn that it isn't. Good, viable theories don't require these kinds of inventions.

[Mayura]

Sorry that you don't know. It is an SSM where GRRM says that Elai and Ashara were close through the early years of Elia's marriage. Rhaenys was "2 or 3" when she was killed, and Elia had been bedridden "for half a year" after Rhaenys' birth. Also, Aegon was a year old when killed.

Sorry, MtnLion, but the SSM you're referring to is actually never stating Elia and Ashara were close. It just states that Ashara was Elia's lady in waiting, it doesn't qualify their relationship as being "BFFs" or even just "friends" as you said. Here is the precise quote:

I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

The rest I will save for the books.

So, yes, she was a lady companion of Elia, but it is absolutely never stated anywhere in a SSM or even in the books that they were "BFFs" as you stated so strongly ;) hence I think you're speculating a friendship (which might be true or not) that is actually never stated anywhere. But anyway, it is not really important, I just wanted to understand where the things you were presenting as "facts" were coming from. PS: actually, any indication of an Elia + Ashara's real friendship stated anywhere would help me lots about another theory I like, but I had indeed looked for it about a week ago and I didn't find anything.

About Aegon, I am pretty much convinced he died in KL and that Varys presented us with a fake. Aegon being at the TOJ doesn't ring of truth imo, even though we don't have any real clue that can allow us to discard the theory. As for Aegon being at the TOJ, I doubt Ned would let him "walk away". Clearly, we can assume Ned saved Jon because he was Lyanna's son. However, even though Ned wants to protect children, he wouldn't be oblivious to the fact that leaving Rhaegar's heir out there with people who know who he is is an open door to a later rebellion against his friend Robert's reign. Ned kept Jon and decided to raise him himself so he could see the child grow up and also probably to make sure he was under his own watch. But Aegon and Elia's son, aka the heir everyone knows about, would be too much of a dangerous wild card to be left alive by Robert's men.

[DrunkSister]

Hi, long time lurker, still can't believe I actually caught up *falls breathless into an untidy heap*

I want to add my 2 c:

About Ashara's mysterious suitor:

Jon Snow calls Bran by name, but calls Robb 'Stark'. Could it be because as the eldest son of lord Eddard Stark, Robb is refereed to by the family name? This could be a clue for which Stark Barristan thinks of.

I don't have time to check right now if there is any other heir that is being referred to by family name only, so I'll put it here just in case anybody else gets any ideas, and will look for it later.

The second is that Jaime could be a witness for Jon being a Targaryen, just as much as Barristan. During Robert's visit Jon was kept away from the princes and the head table, so I doubt Jaime ever gave him more than a passing glance, but if he ever got a good look at him, especially now that Jon is all grown up, it might be a whole different story.

Providing they ever meet, of course, but it is equally uncertain in Barristan's case.

*goes back to lurking*

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Hi, long time lurker, still can't believe I actually caught up *falls breathless into an untidy heap*

I want to add my 2 c:

About Ashara's mysterious suitor:

Jon Snow calls Bran by name, but calls Robb 'Stark'. Could it be because as the eldest son of lord Eddard Stark, Robb is refereed to by the family name? This could be a clue for which Stark Barristan thinks of.

I don't have time to check right now if there is any other heir that is being referred to by family name only, so I'll put it here just in case anybody else gets any ideas, and will look for it later.

The second is that Jaime could be a witness for Jon being a Targaryen, just as much as Barristan. During Robert's visit Jon was kept away from the princes and the head table, so I doubt Jaime ever gave him more than a passing glance, but if he ever got a good look at him, especially now that Jon is all grown up, it might be a whole different story.

Providing they ever meet, of course, but it is equally uncertain in Barristan's case.

*goes back to lurking*

Those are both excellent points!

I agree that Brandon Stark was most likely the one Barristan referred to. For the record, Jaime Lannister is called "Lannister" on more than one occasion. And IRL, in polite society elder children used to be called Master Last Name or Miss Last Name. Younger siblings were called Master or Miss First Name.

As for Jon's looks, I believe he was purposely kept away from anyone who might have known Rhaegar. This makes me wonder if Ned, who would have met Rhaegar at Harrenhal, didn't see something there which made him nervous. Lannisters aside, there are still people alive who would have known Rhaegar and one of them has spent quite a bit of time with Jon already. When he returns to the Wall, if he can peel his eyes away from from Mel and her nightfires, maybe Stannis Baratheon will see something that surprises him ;)

[the_one_who_was_promised]

Let me add that I am in the camp that has serious doubts (now, post-ADWD) that Aegon was at the TOJ when Ned got there, but in the spirit of continuing to explore the possibility let me pick up on a few points you and others have raised.

First, putting Aegon and Jon at the TOJ isn't putting all your treasures in one purse. When Rhaegar died at the Trident, so far as he knew there were 5 or 6 Targs left with claims to the Iron Throne (depending on whether Jon was legit). Putting two at the TOJ (Aegon and the son or daughter Lyanna was expecting); two in KL (Aerys and Rhaenys); and two on Dragonstone (Viserys and Rhaella) would make a lot of sense. It is not the only course that makes sense, but it is not illogical. Also, not knowing what Jon's gender would be, the only question was whether Lyanna's baby would be third in line (after Aerys and Aegon but before Viserys, Rhaenys and Rhaella) or fifth in line (after Aerys, Aegon, Viserys, and Rhaenys but before Rhaella).

Second, if Jon was illegitimate, there would only be one heir at the TOJ. So that's only one treasure in that purse.

I don't think that even as Rhaegar might have been contemplating worst case scenario, his main concern was just that there were enough Targeryan heirs littered across the kingdom to survive the purge. Jon and Aegon were also his children - he'd want them to be safe as much as he'd want the Targeryan dynasty to survive.

But supposing for one minute that it'd make perfect sense from Rhaegar's perspective to house Aegon and Jon at the same location, then why not do a swap-over with Rhaenys and bring her over to the ToJ too?

By this analogy, Rhaegar wants as many heirs as possible to survive - Aerys and Rhaenys are in Kings Landing, but Aerys is unstable. True, Rhaegar might not have appreciated how unstable he was, but if you were contemplating your potential demise, would you really leave your daughter alone in the care of this man? And, if Jon is a bastard (and hence, no treasure), it would make more sense from my POV to bring her over to the ToJ too - after all she is second in line to the throne.

Therefore this theory would make more sense to me if he'd tried to move both children rather than leaving his daughter in Kings Landing.

Third, I am not convinced that Ned thought Aegon was dead. Sure, he thinks about the "red ruin" of Aegon's skull, but he's remembering what he believed at the time, and possibly worrying about what will happen if Robert finds out that Aegon is not really dead.

Also, the other thing he remembers doing on the day he supposedly saw the "red ruin" of Aegon's skull was to leave KL to fight the last "battles" of the war, but so far as we know he fought in no "battles" after that day. This seems to be a memory of something he thought on the day itself but which he knows in hindsight did not really happen.

It has been suggested in the past that Ned left KL believing that he was on his way to fight battles that would never actually happen. Applying the same logic, he may remember believing that he saw Aegon dead while he in fact knows this is not what actually happened.

I accept that Ned's memory may be somewhat faint due to the lapse of time and the possible trauma of what he witnessed that day in Kings Landing. I agree that he believes that the red ruin he saw was that of Aegon, but if Aegon was alive at the ToJ when he went to seek out his sister, he wouldn't lament about Aegon in this way surely, because he'd know that Aegon had gotten out alive.

Knowing how ambiguous Ned can be (saying that Jon is his "blood" for instance rather than calling him his son), I doubt that his recollections would mention Aegon specifically when mentioning the slaughter of Elia and the Targeryan children.