R+L=J v 58

[MtnLion]

I completely agree, we all speculate. But I don't understand why the poster who replied to me seemed to tell me his speculations were facts? Maybe I misunderstood but that is how I read his/her posts, because it seemed to contain "truth" that are actually pure speculations as well (like saying Ashara was Elia's best friend etc).

But if some of these things are facts that I've missed, by all means tell me, that's useful :)

Sorry that you don't know. It is an SSM where GRRM says that Elai and Ashara were close through the early years of Elia's marriage. Rhaenys was "2 or 3" when she was killed, and Elia had been bedridden "for half a year" after Rhaenys' birth. Also, Aegon was a year old when killed.

[SFDanny]

If Aegon was at the tower, why would Ned continue to think that he is dead? (Now you have to figure out how he was hidden, then you have to figure out where he went.)

And the author has never given us examples of how a Targaryen or someone with Targaryen features could be hidden? Aegon "Egg" Targaryen the Fifth of his name ring any bells? Or how Young Griff is hidden in A Dance with Dragons? We are talking about an approximately one year old child who could easily be disguised to pass as the child of a wet nurse. Where did he go? To Starfall with Ned, Jon, Howland, and Wyllla - and possibly others. Why would Ned concern himself of the fate of Wylla's "child" after he leaves Starfall? He has no reason to think on the child again, and as soon as Ned is gone Aegon could be on the next ship to the Free Cities and out of the hands of the usurper's forces. So, why would Ned continue to think Aegon is dead? Because he doesn't know the child he brings with him to Starfall is Aegon.

Sorry, this whole line is just plain wrong. There is no logical reason for Aegon to be at the tower, Aerys wants him as a hostage to keep Dorne in line. The argument that you want to separate heirs loses value when you are moving Aegon to the same location as Jon, and then we have no one that is going to make that call, especially against Aerys' wishes.

Aerys has no reason to send him to the Tower, but Rhaegar and Elia have every reason to do so. You allude to it yourself - Aerys wants him as a hostage. His parents want to get their child out from under the threat of harm every hostage faces, and, in this case, a threat from a lunatic and murderous grandfather. Getting Aegon out of King's Landing and into the hands of men Rhaegar trusts makes all the sense in the world. So, no, the reason for Rhaegar to do so is not only logical, but obvious.

Now, Rhaenys is a different case. She can't be "swapped" and unnoticed at her age for long. Splitting the two children makes sense because one is possible to carry out, and the other is almost impossible for any length of time.

These are the logistics that make the "Aegon at the Tower of Joy" theory possible. The question of if it is likely is another point entirely. I think there are reasons, as I stated above to doubt it. But your points in no way rule this scenario out. I likened it to Ashara or Wylla as Jon's mom and I meant it. We can't rule these things out because we have characters saying each of the two women are, in fact, Jon's mom, and we know that if, some how, either of them could be in proximity to Ned at the right time of the war (highly unlikely but possible) then there is a chance the story moves in that direction. With Aegon being switched and smuggled out via the Tower of Joy the chances are similar, imo.

[Ygrain]

And the author has never given us examples of how a Targaryen or someone with Targaryen features could be hidden? Aegon "Egg" Targaryen the Fifth of his name ring any bells? Or how Young Griff is hidden in A Dance with Dragons? We are talking about an approximately one year old child who could easily be disguised to pass as the child of a wet nurse. Where did he go? To Starfall with Ned, Jon, Howland, and Wyllla - and possibly others. Why would Ned concern himself of the fate of Wylla's "child" after he leaves Starfall? He has no reason to think on the child again, and as soon as Ned is gone Aegon could be on the next ship to the Free Cities and out of the hands of the usurper's forces. So, why would Ned continue to think Aegon is dead? Because he doesn't know the child he brings with him to Starfall is Aegon.

Aerys has no reason to send him to the Tower, but Rhaegar and Elia have every reason to do so. You allude to it yourself - Aerys wants him as a hostage. His parents want to get their child out from under the threat of harm every hostage faces, and, in this case, a threat from a lunatic and murderous grandfather. Getting Aegon out of King's Landing and into the hands of men Rhaegar trusts makes all the sense in the world. So, no, the reason for Rhaegar to do so is not only logical, but obvious.

Now, Rhaenys is a different case. She can't be "swapped" and unnoticed at her age for long. Splitting the two children makes sense because one is possible to carry out, and the other is almost impossible for any length of time.

These are the logistics that make the "Aegon at the Tower of Joy" theory possible. The question of if it is likely is another point entirely. I think there are reasons, as I stated above to doubt it. But your points in no way rule this scenario out. I likened it to Ashara or Wylla as Jon's mom and I meant it. We can't rule these things out because we have characters saying each of the two women are, in fact, Jon's mom, and we know that if, some how, either of them could be in proximity to Ned at the right time of the war (highly unlikely but possible) then there is a chance the story moves in that direction. With Aegon being switched and smuggled out via the Tower of Joy the chances are similar, imo.

The problem is: who and how would smuggle Aegon out of KL to ToJ? What faithful associates did Rhaegar have in KL, and how did they prevent Varys from finding out? And, if Varys did find out, why not tell Aerys, when we have seen him acting against Rhaegar?

And, actually, if smuggle Aegon out, why put him in the same basket with Lyanna and not make an arrangement with Doran to hide him?

[Floris]

now i don't speculate with hidden undead Targs,but i have noticed that evrytime we get to be introduced to some Targ like egg or someone else GRRM begin to write the same thing for every one of them - he had silver hair,his eyes were dark,but in the light(or in fact) they purple or dark blue,for each and evy one Targ the description is the same.I know,i know the Daynes and other houses have the same lookbut just see how he writes

[Maxpey]

You are right, there is plenty of time for them to learn of Aegon's "death." However, it is widely believed that communications between the TOJ and the outside world were poor. Otherwise, why didn't Lyanna try to communicate with Ned and Robert after Rickard and Brandon were killed?

It is clear that Aerys death was public knowledge before Aegon's "death" was. Ned saw Aerys' dead body on the floor of the throne room a short time after it happened, but he did not know that Aegon was "dead" until later, when Tywin presented the body to Robert. So it is possible that a message went immediately from KL to the TOJ saying that Aerys was dead but that there was never a second message saying that Aegon was "dead" too.

Anyway, it seems strange to me that in his fever dream, Ned never says anything about Aegon and the KG never ask. It is as though Aegon's fate -- whether he is alive or dead, where he is, everything -- is completely irrelevant to whatever those KG are doing at that tower. Or Aegon is there, and that is why no one says that he is or was somewhere else.

Anything is possible, but if we are talking about reasonable inferences, I personally think it's more reasonable to believe that the KG found out about Aegon's fate, as there was plenty of time for them to receive that information, from presumably the same presently unknown source that let them know about what happened at KL.

As to your second point, IMO Ned's failure to specifically reference Aegon is not surprising, as neither does he mention the fates of Elia and Rhaenys (I mistakenly called her Rhaella in my post - my bad!).

Personally, I think that the Aegon being present at the TOJ is a theory in search of facts (as opposed to R + L = J). As such, Ned's failure to mention Aegon in his fever dream only becomes suspicious in that context. However, I am the first person to say that I have been known to be wrong about a lot of things. ;)

[Zupoleon]

Getting Aegon out of King's Landing and into the hands of men Rhaegar trusts makes all the sense in the world. So, no, the reason for Rhaegar to do so is not only logical, but obvious.

In retrospect, that is absolutely correct. But at the time, Rhaegar had no idea that Aerys had gone THAT FAR off the deep end, and therefore I don't think he felt Aegon was in danger. Furthermore, Elia his Aerys' hostage. That's all he needs for leverage against Dorne. Aegon is / should be just as important to him as Rhaegar is, as he is the continuation of the line.

[Ygrain]

now i don't speculate with hidden undead Targs,but i have noticed that evrytime we get to be introduced to some Targ like egg or someone else GRRM begin to write the same thing for every one of them - he had silver hair,his eyes were dark,but in the light(or in fact) they purple or dark blue,for each and evy one Targ the description is the same.I know,i know the Daynes and other houses have the same lookbut just see how he writes

Perhaps you would like to make acquaintance with Baelor Breakspear :-)

"His short-cropped hair was dark and peppered with grey"

Or his nephew Daeron, not-quite-so-desirable to acquaint with:

"sandy brown hair, and blond stubble"

[Floris]

i know that there are exceptions,but still,you got the idea :)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The problem is: who and how would smuggle Aegon out of KL to ToJ? What faithful associates did Rhaegar have in KL, and how did they prevent Varys from finding out? And, if Varys did find out, why not tell Aerys, when we have seen him acting against Rhaegar?

And, actually, if smuggle Aegon out, why put him in the same basket with Lyanna and not make an arrangement with Doran to hide him?

This is generally why I find the idea of Aegon at the Tower of Joy to be bunk. The logistics don't really add up. Ned thinks very explicitly that Aegon is dead — he saw the body. If anything it's one of the biggest reminders that he did the right thing by hiding Jon, because if he didn't, it'd be Jon's infant skull in red ruin. I don't think Egg or Young Griff are really comparable here — there's no way that another baby was at the Tower without Ned knowing it. And, what, they gonna shave an infant's head or dye it blue? And even assuming that the kid was there and then moved, or even if they ended up shipping him to Doran, that doesn't explain why all three surviving/still-loyal Kingsguard were still at the Tower.

And if one of the reasons for not also smuggling out Rhaenys was to keep the kids separated, bringing Aegon to the same keep in which Lyanna is giving birth to Jon makes no sense. They contradict each other.

No, one baby was there. It was Jon. The Kingsguard who were there were operating on the assumption that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon were dead, and Jon was thus the king. Not Viserys. Anything else is just overcomplicating it.

i know that there are exceptions,but still,you got the idea :)

You could have just stopped right here.

[SFDanny]

The problem is: who and how would smuggle Aegon out of KL to ToJ? What faithful associates did Rhaegar have in KL, and how did they prevent Varys from finding out? And, if Varys did find out, why not tell Aerys, when we have seen him acting against Rhaegar?

The who? Ashara tops the list of candidates for taking Aegon to the tower. Perhaps this is also when Wylla enters the picture and gets to the tower.

How did they prevent Varys from finding out? My guess is, as I stated above, that Varys does find out, but after Aegon is gone. Varys is not all powerful. When Varys does find out, I think he does put it to some use. Young Griff is the outcome of his finding out.

And, actually, if smuggle Aegon out, why put him in the same basket with Lyanna and not make an arrangement with Doran to hide him?

Because Doran is not loyal to Rhaegar, even if the Martells are far more preferable than Aerys concerning Aegon's personal health and safety. Doran is pissed at Rhaegar because of his dalliance with Lyanna, and his treatment of Elia. Martin has told us so. The Kingsguard trio are there following Rhaegar's orders and unless there is some way of Aerys getting a personal order to them there is little doubt they will continue to do as Rhaegar tells them to do. Even then Rhaegar has reason to believe some of them at the least might do as Rhaegar commands. All in all the best place Rhaegar could put Aegon, at least in the short run.

Again, doesn't mean this happened. Only there are means, motive, and hints that if might have happened. Probably one of Martin's red herrings, but a good one in my opinion.

[finger]

I'm having problems with communications again and I'm not sure what I'm being able to send away. Please forgive any inconvenience.

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.

He did well fleeing with the remnants of Targ familly

“But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”

Our duty is other. We're not to flee in disguise. Ours is dying for our king.

“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

Should we'd been with Viserys, or covering Aegon, as we're now

“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

Killing some of you doesn't make us happy, but we must.

Ned’s wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.

They're making themselves killed and he loaths to execute the deed.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

Sick of talk, let's die.

“No,” Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.”

Daynes and Starks had a good thing going, but now it's going to the dogs.

[finger]

I'm having problems with communications again and I'm not sure what I'm being able to send away. Please forgive any inconvenience.

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.

He did well fleeing with the remnants of Targ familly

“But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”

Our duty is other. We're not to flee in disguise. Ours is dying for our king.

“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

Should we'd been with Viserys, or covering Aegon, as we're now

“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

Killing some of you doesn't make us happy, but we must.

Ned’s wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.

They're making themselves killed and he loaths to execute the deed.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

Sick of talk, let's die.

“No,” Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.”

Daynes and Starks had a good thing going, but now it's going to the dogs.

[the_one_who_was_promised]

I will add to the chorus of people who doesn't think that Aegon was hidden at the ToJ. As other posters have rightly pointed out, it would make no logistical sense to put all your eggs (heirs) into one basket - if they wanted to protect Aegon they would keep both boys separate. Look to examples in history for that. We were discussing the parallels between ASoIaF and Star Wars recently, in particular Luke Skywalker and Jon Snow - and looking at the twins scenario, Leia and Luke are separated at birth in order to protect them from the Emperor. It is much easier to hide one baby than it is two. Who would have been expected to be responsible for both these babies in the event that worst case scenario occurs?

I realise that Rhaegar expected or hoped to return from the Trident alive, but it cannot be denied that he had a 50-50 chance of getting out alive. He must have considered the worst case scenario if Robert won and if the rebels advanced thereafter. Holling Lyanna and co at the ToJ must have been a short-term solution and he probably thought that if the worst happened, Elia and the children would have been allowed to go to Dragonstone with Viserys and Rhaella. Ergo, I think that this is what he had in mind for Aegon - not sending him to the ToJ.

Ned laments the fate that befell the two Targeryan children quite clearly in his POVs. I think that if there was a possibility that Aegon would have been at the ToJ, there would be some foreshadowing of it. Do we have any (apart from the baby swapping thing)? I'm not aware of anything but please correct me if I'm wrong.

[MtnLion]

I'm having problems with communications again and I'm not sure what I'm being able to send away. Please forgive any inconvenience.

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.

He did well fleeing with the remnants of Targ familly

Let's stop right here. How does that jibe with the comment that they would see Jaime roast in Seven Hells before allowing him to take Aerys' life?

[Ygrain]

The who? Ashara tops the list of candidates for taking Aegon to the tower. Perhaps this is also when Wylla enters the picture and gets to the tower.

How did they prevent Varys from finding out? My guess is, as I stated above, that Varys does find out, but after Aegon is gone. Varys is not all powerful. When Varys does find out, I think he does put it to some use. Young Griff is the outcome of his finding out.

However, Ashara was not in KL during the Rebellion. She could have come visiting, but given that she was the sister of one Arthur known to be hiding with Rhaegar, wouldn't her movements be followed in order to find out what she might be up to? Wouldn't Aerys himself want her questioned to find out what she might know about Rhaegar? And how would Ashara pull the switch? Finding a child of the right age and colouring in KL would be time-consuming and I cannot imagine that it would escape the attention of Varys' spies.

Because Doran his not loyal to Rhaegar, even if the Martells are far more preferable than Aerys concerning Aegon's personal health and safety. Doran is pissed at Rhaegar because of his dalliance with Lyanna, and his treatment of Elia. Martin has told us so. The Kingsguard trio are there following Rhaegar's orders and unless there is some way of Aerys getting a personal order to them there is little doubt they will continue to do as Rhaegar tells them to do. Even then Rhaegar has reason to believe some of them at the least might do as Rhaegar commands. All in all the best place Rhaegar could put Aegon, at least in the short run.

Yes but acting against Rhaegar would harm Elia, so pissed as he might be, what would Doran do? He certainly cannnot take Aegon hostage against Rhaegar as he's not going to harm his sister's child, and he certainly wouldn't be sending him back to Aerys. What danger would come from Doran then?

[MtnLion]

Aegon being removed from the safety of King's Landing by Rhaegar or Elia before the Trident fails the logical sniff test. That is in spite of the awkward assumption that he would be sent to the tower, Dragonstone is much closer and firmly in Targaryen control.

[SFDanny]

In retrospect, that is absolutely correct. But at the time, Rhaegar had no idea that Aerys had gone THAT FAR off the deep end, and therefore I don't think he felt Aegon was in danger. Furthermore, Elia his Aerys' hostage. That's all he needs for leverage against Dorne. Aegon is / should be just as important to him as Rhaegar is, as he is the continuation of the line.

At this point in the story Aerys has murdered Rickard, Brandon, all of Brandon's companions except one, and all of those companions fathers. He has demanded the heads of Ned and Robert. He has launched a war on anyone who does not obey his wishes, including threatening the Martells with the safety of Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon, if they don't fully support him in his war. So, I think Aerys is pretty far gone towards the looney tunes side of mental health. For a normal, sane person threatening his grandson and heir would be unthinkable. That Aerys does this should be all we need to know about his mental state. Rhaegar has every rational reason to fear his father having control over Elia and their children, but has little he can do about it without open rebellion himself. It makes complete sense he would do what he could to get the one child away he could get away from Aerys's grasp.

[finger]

And still, if Jon is legitimate and Aegon dead (or even only believed dead by the KG), then these words can be equally applied to their case and Jon (save for covering his retreat and instead shielding him from the rebels)

I also don't have the impression that the KG see themselves as having failed. That is your modern interpretation. From their perspective, if they have stayed true to their vow, they have not failed. Yes, the King is dead, due to the actions of one of their brothers. But how could they have prevented this? They were fulfilling their duty here, and there was no contradiction to their vows at that time. And now there is a new king that needs protecting - Jon (or, if we assume your version, Aegon...)

WTF! I'd answered you pretty well, but I think the post is lost. From bad to worst, knowing what's happening, I'd written it as a text just to copy and paste, but I've erased it. Shit does happen.

The thing is the KG had no reason to fight Ned. In fact, Ned should and did protect Jon for kin's sake, not for some strange duty.

I recall. Look what Jaime says in ACOK about his duty as a KG: "Defend the king. Obey the king. Keep his secrets.Do his bidding. Your life for his."

The 3 KG gave up their lives just to hinder Ned and give those who were with Aegon the time to make him safe.

More on other posts, but I think the path is trod, unless we discover new pieces of information.

[finger]

Aegon being removed from the safety of King's Landing by Rhaegar or Elia before the Trident fails the logical sniff test. That is in spite of the awkward assumption that he would be sent to the tower, Dragonstone is much closer and firmly in Targaryen control.

By no means. Rhaegar didn't want Aerys to use Aegon as a hostage, and his staunchest men were at ToJ.

[J. Stargaryen]

Again, doesn't mean this happened. Only there are means, motive, and hints that if might have happened. Probably one of Martin's red herrings, but a good one in my opinion.

It's not even a red herring. Not to mention a good one. It's a mystery, or puzzle, enigma, conundrum, riddle, secret, problem, etc. Nowhere in the text is it indicated that Aegon is at the ToJ. That the KG are likely defending the heir in the tower is a secret since they have an official reason for being there; Rhaegar's orders.