Heresy 71

[JonNonRegis]

(1) I'm not sold on this either, but mance being a blackfyre does fit. It would help explain why GRRM has talked about the blackfyres so much, and would make the history which has been worked into ASoIaF more relevant.

This would also be true if more probable candidates are eventually revealed as Blackfyres... Aegon, Varys, someone like that.

(2) What if Mance was never sent beyond the wall. What if he was sent to the wall and the story about him being found with wildlings was just a cover story.

Then a Blackfyre child would have to been allowed to live by the Targaryens just when they were on exceptionally poor terms (the end of the most recent Blackfyre Rebellion). And the Watch would have made up a story about Mance for no apparent reason, when they could just have told the truth.

Another question: If you support the Blackfyre cause, presumably you want to stage another rebellion, if you can, in the hope of winning the Throne. That's what the Blackfyre cause is all about.

How is sending a Blackfyre baby to the Wall, and persuading the Watch to lie about his identity, going to improve the odds of another rebellion?

[Black Crow]

This would also be true if more probable candidates are eventually revealed as Blackfyres... Aegon, Varys, someone like that.

Then a Blackfyre child would have to been allowed to live by the Targaryens just when they were on exceptionally poor terms (the end of the most recent Blackfyre Rebellion). And the Watch would have made up a story about Mance for no apparent reason, when they could just have told the truth.

Another question: If you support the Blackfyre cause, presumably you want to stage another rebellion, if you can, in the hope of winning the Throne. That's what the Blackfyre cause is all about.

How is sending a Blackfyre baby to the Wall, and persuading the Watch to lie about his identity, going to improve the odds of another rebellion?

I agree up to a point, largely because simply sending him to the Wall under an assumed name or not would have no point. Instead I think that he was indeed being taken North of the Wall by a determined party of loyal supporters, but the cunning plan went pear-shaped when they and the local hired help were intercepted by the Watch. Mance then grows up as a model ranger right up until that meeting with the woods witch's daughter, when he starts wearing Blackfyre colours, deserts and far from roaming free and easy as a bird, fights to become King Beyond the Wall with all the worries and cares that entails - and that's before the blue-eyed lot start working themselves.

[LynnS]

True. It would be a Popsicles-only weapon, completely ineffective against wights, men, etc.

Except that I don't think glass candles are garden variety obsidian. They aren't just frozen fire. It seems to me that additional magics are infused in the candles for them to burn with fire, ice, light and dark. The candles at the Citadel were gifts from Volantis if we are to believe it.

If the Wall has fallen and there must be a Stark in Winterfell; then I wonder if Jon's dreams of defending the walls places him at the Wall or the walls of Winterfell and if Mance has to go North.

[Black Crow]

Really don't see Mance as the one to go north. Whatever the truth of his parentage and his present purpose he's still only a second line character, not one of the principals.

[LynnS]

Really don't see Mance as the one to go north. Whatever the truth of his parentage and his present purpose he's still only a second line character, not one of the principals.

Perhaps, but that makes Euron a second line player also. ;)

[GoldenVale]

Let's assume for a moment that Mance rayder is, in fact, a Blackfyre. How would mance have come to be found at the wall as an infant/baby? We can take the books story for gospel and assume Mance was somehow transported into the hands of wildlings were the watch discovered him and raised him, though I tend to think that is a far more complicated explanation than the following simple one. Mance Rayder (as a baby/infant) was purposefully sent to the wall toward the end of the war of the ninepenny kings. Mance could have been sent by the blackfyres to protect their lineage and make sure an heir survives. Or mance may have been sent north by whomever defeated the blackfyres The people who defeated the blackfyres may have been unwilling to kill a baby, so instead they sent the child to the wall where the child's heritage could be forgotten and the child wouldn't be a threat. The story of mance being discovered when attacking wildlings could have just been the cover story used to explain why the watch suddenly had a baby in their ranks.

I personally don't see how Mance being a secret Blackfyre smuggled across the wall is the simpler explanation. The NW wouldn't have to find a cover story to explain the baby because they wouldn't be asked to explain the baby anyway. The NW was already starved for recruits at that point and IIRC raising children to be brothers wasn't exactly uncommon for them.

(1) I'm not sold on this either, but mance being a blackfyre does fit. It would help explain why GRRM has talked about the blackfyres so much, and would make the history which has been worked into ASoIaF more relevant.

(2) What if Mance was never sent beyond the wall. What if he was sent to the wall and the story about him being found with wildlings was just a cover story.

(1) We already have a much more relevant character for the Blackfyre story line, Aegon (Young Griff). The foreshadowing, visions, suspicious comments by characters etc.all point to him as being a Blackfyre and as he's a much more important character (or about to be anyway) I don't see GRRRM's need to make Mance one.

(2) Then why keep it secret? For it to be a cover story the LC at that time, Aemon, probably Mormont, Qhorin Halfhand have either all been duped, or are all in on it.

I also think a lot of stock is being put on this woods witch for this theory. A woods witch we know jack all about.

[Warged_Nightstalker]

I love the theory that Mance is a secret Blackfyre. I don't think that the whole NW knew about Mance's ancestry. As someone who wanted to hide Mance at the Wall, you probably only needed a few rangers that were Blackfyre supporters. You meet them, give them the child and when they get back to their Castle, they tell the tale that the child is the only survivor of a band of Wildlings they ambushed and killed. Mance's Blackfyre roots could maybe also explain why he deserted. Maybe he let something slip and he feared that Aemon would suspect him being a Blackfyre?

[LynnS]

I love the theory that Mance is a secret Blackfyre.

Me too. On the grounds that it's unexpected, counter-intuitive and completely against orthodoxy. ;)

[redriver]

I love the theory that Mance is a secret Blackfyre. I don't think that the whole NW knew about Mance's ancestry. As someone who wanted to hide Mance at the Wall, you probably only needed a few rangers that were Blackfyre supporters. You meet them, give them the child and when they get back to their Castle, they tell the tale that the child is the only survivor of a band of Wildlings they ambushed and killed. Mance's Blackfyre roots could maybe also explain why he deserted. Maybe he let something slip and he feared that Aemon would suspect him being a Blackfyre?

Can't get behind this at all.Aside from the colour of silk used to mend his cloak,there is nothing to suggest Mance is a Blackfyre,and even if he was,there's nothing to suggest he knows it or is acting on a Blackfyre agenda.

The Mance is the Mance.

[JonNonRegis]

I agree up to a point, largely because simply sending him to the Wall under an assumed name or not would have no point. Instead I think that he was indeed being taken North of the Wall by a determined party of loyal supporters, but the cunning plan went pear-shaped when they and the local hired help were intercepted by the Watch. Mance then grows up as a model ranger right up until that meeting with the woods witch's daughter, when he starts wearing Blackfyre colours, deserts and far from roaming free and easy as a bird, fights to become King Beyond the Wall with all the worries and cares that entails - and that's before the blue-eyed lot start working themselves.

Well, first, I approve of any use of the phrase "cunning plan" and only suggest working in a turnip in future. Perhaps the plan could be said to go "turnip-shaped," for instance.

(Could House Blackadder be distantly related to House Blackfyre?)

Second, if Mance is a Blackfyre and wants to stage a rebellion... are you suggesting his strategy is to use the free folk as his foot soldiers?

Becoming KbtwW for this purpose seems an awful lot of work that could easily get him killed, especially given most of the free folk are lousy, undisciplined warriors who in any event will probably struggle to make it past the Wall at all.

If he has any sort of proof he is a Blackfyre, beyond the colors of his cloak, he might find a better class of warriors available to him in Essos. Like the Golden Company.

It seems to me that additional magics are infused in the candles for them to burn with fire

No question of that. However, it's not clear that said magic improves the physical durability of the obsidian enough to make it battle-capable.

If the Wall has fallen and there must be a Stark in Winterfell; then I wonder if Jon's dreams of defending the walls places him at the Wall or the walls of Winterfell and if Mance has to go North.

The Wall is identified as such in the dream.

"Snow," an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again.

[LynnS]

Second, if Mance is a Blackfyre and wants to stage a rebellion... are you suggesting his strategy is to use the free folk as his foot soldiers?

No question of that. However, it's not clear that said magic improves the physical durability of the obsidian enough to make it battle-capable.

The Wall is identified as such in the dream.

"Snow," an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again.

How do we know that Mance is staging another Blackfyre rebellion? Perhaps, he is more wildling than Blackfyre and their livlihood is his main concern. How do we explain the existence of a dragonhorn in a grave he dug up? And a glass candle? Who would bring that north of the wall? Someone who couldn't control a dragon without one? Was Mance looking for the grave of his ancestor? Craster's father?

I realize these questions can't be answered. But I don't think Mance's red and black cloak is the only evidence we have been given.

Jon's dream does place him at the wall.

[Jojenpaste]

I believe Sam is suggesting that the baby takes after (ie, shares qualities of) both his father (Mance) as well as his imposter mother (Gilly and her husband/father, Craster) BUT NOT Sam, himsel, who is a craven.

That's my understanding anyway...

Here's the actual quote (from Feast For Crows Sam IV). For some context Sam and Gilly are talking about the situation they are in and how they got there (chiefly the switcheroo, why it was necessary, and master Aemon's recent passing etc.) and Gilly says:

“The night before he [Mance] died, he asked if he might hold the babe,” Gilly went on. “I was afraid he might drop him, but he never did. He rocked

him and hummed a song for him, and Dalla’s boy reached up and touched his face. The way he pulled his lip I thought he might be hurting him, but it only made the old man laugh.” She stroked Sam’s hand. “We could name the little one Maester, if you like. When he’s old enough,

not now. We could.”

“Maester is not a name. You could call him Aemon, though.”

Gilly thought about that. “Dalla brought him forth during battle, as the swords sang all around her. That should be his name. Aemon Battleborn. Aemon Steelsong.”

A name even my lord father might like. A warrior’s name. The boy was Mance Rayder’s son and Craster’s grandson, after all. He had none

of Sam’s craven blood. “Yes. Call him that.”

Make of it what you will, but I will say that it is oddly worded. Not saying it means anything but it certainly makes you look twice.

It's been speculated on threads dedicated to this subject that Euron molested Aeron and that's why he's so fearful around him. With the memory of someone coming into his room tat night, the better to be despised by Balon than "loved" by Euron and Euron's personality and history we know of (i.e Victarion's wife) it does certainly fit.

Although I admit your theory is interesting and not at all impossible.

That's quite a curse though. And quite the screw up. I'd find it hard to believe that a not too long after the Long Night that someone would try and unleash the very forces that they supposedly just barely stopped. At least not deliberately. Perhaps he tried to use the magic of the Children (with their help?) and just unwittingly unleashed them but I think we'd hear more about this than the ambiguous story Bran recalls.

Considering this was supposedly done from the ever spooky Nightfort. I think maybe the Nightfort, being the first castle raised at the Wall IIRC, was some sort of hub of Children magic, where a lot of magic is probably still let. Much more than the Black Gate at least.

[Black Crow]

Well, first, I approve of any use of the phrase "cunning plan" and only suggest working in a turnip in future. Perhaps the plan could be said to go "turnip-shaped," for instance.

(Could House Blackadder be distantly related to House Blackfyre?)

Second, if Mance is a Blackfyre and wants to stage a rebellion... are you suggesting his strategy is to use the free folk as his foot soldiers?

Becoming KbtwW for this purpose seems an awful lot of work that could easily get him killed, especially given most of the free folk are lousy, undisciplined warriors who in any event will probably struggle to make it past the Wall at all.

If he has any sort of proof he is a Blackfyre, beyond the colors of his cloak, he might find a better class of warriors available to him in Essos. Like the Golden Company...

...The Wall is identified as such in the dream.

"Snow," an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again.

Agreed on the Wall, but as for the cunning plan the point is that like all of Blackadder's cunning plans this one went pear shaped - or if you prefer turnip shaped. What I'm suggesting is that he was being spirited away in an unlikely direction to throw off any pursuit, when his protectors, whether loyalists, local hired help or whoever, were mistaken for wildling raiders - an easy assumption on finding a heavily armed gang of men moving fast out there in a free-fire zone - and wiped out by the Watch. Just a random act of chance. The small boy survives and perhaps any women who were not obvious spear-wives.

Boy is brought up by the Watch, but then one fine day he meets another survivor of the ambush - or her daughter - learns that he's a Blackfyre, displays his colours and sets about carving out a kingdom of his own; you know, King's blood, destiny, that kind of thing. Then Craster's boys come knocking and its time to come south - a necessary outcome in the circumstances but not necessarily the one he started out to achieve.

Now OK I'll cheerfully admit the evidence is circumstantial, but its there. His apparent age fits with him being picked up at the time of the Ninepenny Kings, we've got this very strange cloak which isn't really a repair job but a means of displaying his colours, and we've got his ambitions which spring from the same encounter - and he's up to something.

Just on a general level, and bearing in mind the way the Blackfyres feature in the broader story, I also thinks it makes sense for Mance to be "family", a part of the Game of Thrones, rather than a random outsider

[Black Crow]

OK, its past my bed-time and as things have gone a little quiet, I think its probably a good time to lauch Heresy 72. Please redirect all correspondence accordingly and I'll see you there in the morning.

Good night all.

[HannibalStark]

T

And most tellingly in my opinion Jaime's Dream in Storm of Swords:

Naked and alone he stood surrounded by enemies with stone walls all around him pressing close. The Rock he knew. He could feel the immense weight of it above his head . He was home. He was home and whole.

He held his right hand up and flexed his fingers to feel the strength in them. It felt as good as sex. As good as swordplay. Four fingers and a thumb. He had dreamed that he was maimed, but it wasn’t so. Relief made him dizzy. My hand, my good hand. Nothing could hurt him so long as he was whole.

Around him stood a dozen tall dark figures in cowled robes that hid their faces. In their hands were spears. “Who are you?” he demanded of them. “What business do you have in Casterly Rock?”

They gave no answers, only prodded him with the points of their spears. He had no choice but to descend. Down a twisting passageway he went, narrow steps carved from living rock, down and down. I must go up, he told himself. Up, not down. Why am I going down? Below the earth his doom awaited, he knew with the certainty of dream; something dark and terrible lurked there, something that wanted him. Jaime tried to halt but the spears prodded him on. If only I had my sword nothing could harm me.

The steps ended abruptly on echoing darkness. Jaime had the sense of vast space before him. He jerked to a halt, teetering on the edge of nothingness. A spear point jabbed at the small of his back, shoving him into the abyss. He shouted, but the fall was short. He landed on his hands and knees, upon soft sand and shallow water. There were watery caverns deep below Casterly Rock, but this one was strange to him. “What place is this?”

maybe this is a complete shot in the dark, but I can't help but recall the scene in ADWD with Doran talking to the Sand Snakes and one of them saying this will not be over after they "...crack open Casterly Rock to shine the light on the maggots inside (or beneath?)

Sure many people can have spears, but I can't help wondering if the 12 people with spears has something to do with Dorne...and the fact that Doran has already sent the Sand Snakes forth to KL to start stirring shit up for the Lannisters...how much are they behind any of the events currently taking place in KL?

Is the number 12 significant? If I remember correctly, the last hero that goes North to fight the Others had with him 12 companions.... in the TV episode Oathbreaker, the "Nights King" (who I really hope is not the NK, but I digress) I believe there are 12 White Walkers watching the Icing of the Baby ceremony...also, I know this is very random, but I believe that when Bran sets off on his journey North, he originally sets off with 6 companions (not the 12 the first hero has) IS he half a person, half a hero, so only has half of the 12 companions? But then if my count is not off, I believe in total, there are 12 people (and an additional 6) between Sam, the Liddle in the cave etc. that end up helping him on his journey. Maybe this part is way off, but again, the number 12 seems to be coming up.