Stannis Pink Letter Confirmed?

[Griffin's Roost]

possible spoilers if you didn't read Theon tWoW chapter

in this chapter if you have read it. Stannis says something along the lines to one of his men that he should go look for aid to there cause and don't stop even if he should hear that Stannis has been killed.

I have not been a huge believer in the stannis being the author theory. I personally thought it was Mance. but does this almost confirm stannis wrote it? my reasoning being that it is an odd thing to tell someone that and it happened the same time that we hear stannis is "dead" from the letter. maybe he is faking his death. why? I don't know

[Poppa Chase]

Because Stannis knows that Jon knows that he can't defend castle black. So sending this letter will draw him to winterfell. Where he will serve as reinforcements for Stannis.

Only thing is he didn't expect Jon to read a top secret letter out loud to the entire class. He assumed he would lead the wildlings himself into battle. But Jon Snow knows nothing so...

[Chaircat Meow]

No, the 'Stannis wrote it' theory is bollocks.

It was Rams, maybe with some help from Mance.

[Vikingkingq]

I don't think this confirms the Pink Letter being written by Stannis at all.

I think it confirms that Stannis will fake his death - which makes it more likely the Pink Letter was written by Ramsay.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

So basically...no, not confirmed, lol. Still very much up for debate. :-)

I think Stannis and Asha wrote the letter in secret cahoots.

[yankee211]

it makes sense Stannis faking his death and Ramsey writing the letter. But my thing is, how does Ramsey knows about Val and Mances son. I refuse to believe that Mance was captured by Rooses men, he is too clever and it was not confirmed in ADWD in Theon's last chapter.

I can't wait until TWOW comes out.

[Hippocras]

At the very least, GRRM wants us to consider that Stannis might have influenced the letter.

Why?

- Comments to Massey - even if you hear rumours of my death.

- Stannis's capture of ravens for Winterfell from Karstark traitors. ie. he had ravens.

What I think happened is this:

Stannis did not write the pink letter, Ramsay did.

But Ramsay wrote it based of false information. Stannis faked his death by sending a raven pretending to be from the Karstarks declaring that Stannis was defeated.

As for Mance, I don't know how much of an ally he actually is. Stannis may be fine with it if Mance never made it out of Winterfell. But assuming for some reason he does care - then the bit about flaying Mance and the spearwives remains a bit of a mystery. Hard to tell the truth of it.

[Monctonvike]

I think Ramsay may have wrote with false info or intel from Mance

I also believe Mance may have written it. He cares nothing about Stannis and wants to access the crypts of winterfell

I think it is possible Stannis or Asha wrote it but they are my less likely scenarios

[Sword of the Morgan]

I think it was most likely Stannis. With what he says to Massey and the fact that he views Jon as the key to gaining the loyalty of the northern lords it makes sense to me.

[aFeastForDragons]

I think it could have been Mance aswell, when he fights Jon in the yard at castle black he keeps calling him bastard and how else would want him dead the most.

Its my favourite plot in ADWD and I can't wait to see how it all unravels or comes together in the next book.

[The Drunkard]

It doesn't confirm anything. Not that he wrote the Pink Letter, not that he plans to fake his death. I think he intends the latter, but lines like this aren't proofs for anything.

[Urien the Ragged]

Stannis knows that Massey will hear rumors in Essos, he just wants to make sure that he'll return with the army no matter what.

[JLE]

My view:

(1) The TWOW preview "Theon" chapter dates to BEFORE Jon's final chapter from ADWD - not all the timelines are advancing equally.

(2) The "Theon" chapter should therefore logically have been in ADWD, not TWOW, but it would have robbed Jon's last ADWD chapter of much of its impact if we, the readers, knew or guessed that Stannis was going to attempt a trick like faking his own death.

(3) Therefore GRRM, for literary purposes, had to tell part of the story ahead of another part (Tolkien does the same in Lord of the Rings).

So...

At the writing of the "Theon" chapter, Stannis was alive. He is giving instructions that involve preparing for his reported death: instructions which state that it "may even" be true, implying that this is however NOT the intention - Stannis knows there is a chance of being falsely reported dead, and may even be counting on this.

He "does not know" Ramsay, as Theon points out. He does not even know Ramsay's real face, and Ramsay has used disguise as part of his treachery before.

However, as Stannis points out in return, "No more than he knows me". Ramsay does not know Stannis - he does not know him to look at, and Stannis believes that Ramsay will also not know how Stannis is thinking.

The number of armies coming to meet Stannis is two, not three: the Freys and the Manderlys. Theon rates Ramsay as the greatest threat of all: but Ramsay has no army, and even if he had an army, no military expertise. His only victories in battle have come by treachery - the betrayal of Rodrik Cassel in the battle outside Winterfell, and the sacking of Winterfell itself in which he massively outnumbered the half-dozen remaining ironmen and had only civilians to slaughter. Therefore, Ramsay would be stupid to attempt to meet Stannis with an army: so either he is coming to attempt some treachery, or he is not coming at all.

But how could Ramsay get into Stannis's camp by treachery? As a single man, coming on his own, he would be taken and questioned, and probably recognised by Theon. His only hope is to sneak in with a large number of defecting soldiers, and hope that Stannis cannot personally check and interrogate every one separately (since he knows that if Theon has reached Stannis, then Theon may even assist Stannis in forcing Ramsay to show his face, and point him out.)

The Freys have no hope of defecting - they will be slaughtered to the last man even if they try to surrender, their only hope is to win in battle, and I think they will not even *reach* Stannis, Roose has sent them out to die, to rid himself of some thousands of useless mouths whose presence divides his forces. Therefore Ramsay is with the Manderlys - who are, in fact, entirely free to defect, even though Wyman is left behind: Wyman is useless as a hostage against the behaviour of his son, because if Wyman dies, Wylis is alive and free and becomes the new Lord Manderly. (This is why a son should be kept as hostage against the father, rather than the other way around. Greatjon Umber's captivity at the Twins is also useless to the Freys, since his other under-age sons are safe under the guardianship of Mors, who has no sons of his own and therefore no motive to supplant the Greatjon's line.) Wylis, moreover, is in on Wyman's plans, and knows where Davos has been sent: and will thus be able to talk his way into Stannis's good graces (a thing Ramsay does not know, but which will fit in with his plans to get into Stannis's camp as a defecting Manderly soldier after the slaughter of the Frey army.)

Stannis, unfortunately for Ramsay - and forewarned by Theon that Ramsay is more dangerous even with no army than the Manderlys or Freys with one - is expecting some kind of treachery from Ramsay, and is surely intelligent enough to have worked out this far, that Ramsay's only way into the camp is as a defecting Manderly soldier. However, they will be in numbers too great to all be given more than a cursory search. And since Stannis still wants the numbers, he cannot simply reject the Manderlys and slaughter the lot to let the gods sort it out (losing more of his own men in the process, and having even less chance of getting into Winterfell.) So he needs a plan to smoke out Ramsay from his disguise or hiding place, in which Ramsay will be tricked into revealing *himself*.

Stannis may have learned a few things himself from Melisandre about "glamour" in the changing of appearance - or prepared them before he went, with her assistance - or he may achieve it by more mundane means of finding a lord who most resembles him and can copy his manners and style, wear the crown, wield the red sword and generally act well enough to convince someone who has been told what the real Stannis looks like but has never seen him in person. Anyway, the idea, presumably with the consent of the man in question, is to set him up as the target for an assassination attempt, and keep watch from the sidelines hoping to foil it. At least, that's as far as the impostor knows. Stannis may or may not be thinking a good deal further than that.

- If Ramsay tries to kill the impostor, and fails, and is captured or killed, then the treachery is uncovered. Ramsay dies at once. Stannis and his army still have to besiege and take Winterfell the hard way, and Roose still has both the numbers and the position against him: however he has a chance.


- If Ramsay *succeeds* in killing the impostor - possibly stealing the red sword Lightbringer as well - then this is in fact best of all worlds for Stannis. Ramsay escapes back to Winterfell, with the aid of what he believes to be his own supporters in the camp - the Karstarks. Ramsay believes he has killed Stannis and taken Lightbringer, and can write the Pink Letter believing it to be true. BUT, the Karstark soldiers are Stannis's own northern supporters wearing Karstark colours, ready to open the Winterfell gates from the inside when the real Stannis comes calling.

- If Ramsay tries to kill the impostor and fails, but escapes, then he is uncovered: his value as a traitor and master of disguise is useless since enough people will get a look at him. Same scenario as above, except Ramsay will be with Roose in Winterfell when the siege happens. It may therefore be necessary for Ramsay to be "allowed" to "escape" after a failed assassination attempt - or possibly even "rescued" by the "Karstarks" - so that Stannis can get himself some fake "Karstark" supporters in Winterfell ready to open the gates when he arrives.

So, my guess is that's exactly what has happened: Stannis, through use of an impostor using either disguise or glamour, has faked his own assassination, allowed Lightbringer to be stolen, and allowed much of his army to enter Winterfell disguised as Karstarks, while he himself directs the remainder pursuing Ramsay at a safe distance, and Ramsay has fallen for it, hook, line and sinker and written the Pink Letter: and the Boltons are about to experience a swift and total reversal of fortunes (especially if, having finally "killed Stannis", Ramsay also finally loses patience and murders his father to take over the North himself.)

[JLE]

In other words, I think it's evidence that Stannis plans to fake his death, and that the Pink Letter really was written by Ramsay because Stannis succeeded in deceiving him. Not conclusive beyond all doubt, but at least strong corroborative evidence.

[Hippocras]

^ The Boltons do have their own armies. Why do you say Ramsay has no men? The Boltons came away from the Red Wedding relatively strong.

I agree Stannis fakes his death, but I think the scenario is really quite a bit simpler. In your scenario, Manderly's men themselves would have to not recognize Ramsay, which would be false as they have been at Winterfell together. Manderly's men would not simply allow Ramsay to hide among them.

I think it goes like this:

1. Karstarks arrive with ravens trained for Winterfell, intending to send word on Stannis's position and strength. Stannis realizes they are traitors a d captures them, including the ravens.

2. Manderly's forces defect.

3. Stannis writes false report to Winterfell, pretending to be from the Karstarks saying Stannis was defeated.

4. Meanwhile inside Winterfell, Mance and Spearwives may have been captured by Ramsay perhaps when Theon escaped, but something isn't right about the details of the Pink Letter. Ramsay's normal way, if he has flayed someone is to use their skin to send messages. The Pink Letter was not written on human skin with blood. So it is quite unclear what really happened inside Winterfell, but regardless, Stannis used to ravens to pretend he had been defeated. Stannis did not himself write the Pink letter.

[adsf45ds]

I believe GRRM has confirmed that the Theon chapter takes place before the Pink Letter is read by Jon.

Anyone seriously thinking that the letter was written by Roose Bolton? If the goal was to draw Jon out of Castle Black....Roose seems to be the only person who is tactically astute enough to do so...

This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings.

[Jaime Laddister]

Based purely on speculation with no supporting evidence other than circular story telling and everyhting coming together quite nicely, does anyone else think it's possible that if Ramsay tries to sneak into the camp with some 'defectors' as Theon is the only one who'll recognise him we could get a Theon POV where he spots Ramsay and is psychologiclly torn between remaining silent as Reek or betraying his 'master' as Theon, and there'll be a painfully tense and dramatic few pages as Ramsay and his men get closer and closer to Stannis and Theon has to fight his emotions and decide how to act, with a probable outcome of at least 2 of the 3 ending up on the ever growing deceased list?

As i say nothing to support this other than it would complete Theon's arc and would add a twist to the Battle for Winterfell if Stannis and/or Ramsay are already dead before it commences.

Thoughts?

[Hippocras]

where on earth is the popularity of this notion Ramsay will sneak into Stannis's camp coming from? Why would he? Sure, he is treacherous, but as legitimized title holder for Winterfell he has no need for such tactics. And who are these "defectors" he would hide with? The Karstarks were caught. Manderly's men would not hide him and DO know him.

It simply makes no sense.

I could see Ramsay sneaking away from Winterfell if things are going bad inside, but not to Stannis's camp. He would head to the Wall.

[Jaime Laddister]

where on earth is the popularity of this notion Ramsay will sneak into Stannis's camp coming from? Why would he? Sure, he is treacherous, but as legitimized title holder for Winterfell he has no need for such tactics. And who are these "defectors" he would hide with? The Karstarks were caught. Manderly's men would not hide him and DO know him.

It simply makes no sense.

I could see Ramsay sneaking away from Winterfell if things are going bad inside, but not to Stannis's camp. He would head to the Wall.

I just jumped on the Ramsay sneak attack bandwagon in fairness, perhaps Roose would send him, but you just feel something has to happen prior to the confirmed big punch up. We're just playing on the idiosyncracies of the author and the characters i guess, it's the type of move both would pull.

Why, with whatever few men he would have left after the Winterfell assualt, would he head to the wall out of interest?

[Hippocras]

I just jumped on the Ramsay sneak attack bandwagon in fairness, perhaps Roose would send him, but you just feel something has to happen prior to the confirmed big punch up. We're just playing on the idiosyncracies of the author and the characters i guess, it's the type of move both would pull.

Why, with whatever few men he would have left after the Winterfell assualt, would he head to the wall out of interest?

To attacks Stannis's base, kill his wife and heir, get rid of Jon (who he doesn't know was stabbed) and get fArya back. And this would not take place after fighting Stannis, because either he would be escaping revolt inside Winterfell, or he would be assuming Stannis was defeated because Stannis gave him that impression through his false letter supposedly from the Karstarks.