Tywin and the Westerlings' wedding setup?

[Chaircat Meow]

Oooh, you think Shae was planted?

No, I just think Varys knew she was there. Another example would be Robb's plan in GoT. He didn't know Jaime was going to be really reckless when he set out, but his plan ended up working because of that. Sometimes stuff goes your way.

Wrt Jeynegate I also think people overestimate how hard it would be to get Robb to sleep with an attractive young noblewomen after a battle. Yes, as it happened, it was all to do with the wound and the grief, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened another way.

[Snark_Tamer]

I find it likely that Tywin planned alternative routes to bring Robb down than defeating him on the battlefield. I also find it likely that he involved various Houses under his domain on various schemes. He couldn't have planned the details of everything leading up to the Westerling marriage, obviously, but he could have viewed Sybelle's special talents and knack for scheming quite beneficial. Is that so unlikely? One doesn't need to "go all the way" and think Tywin all-knowing and all-powerful at all. It's just an interesting thought, that he somehow premediated it, to a bigger or lesser degree, and to see to what extent he did, if he did at all.

Ah--now HERE I can get on board--Tywin sharing details about Robb and how he might be taken advantage of--he grew up with an absurd level of honor--seducing him would lead to marriage--in the case of houses with eligible daughters. Maybe some other form of strategy suggested to other sorts of houses. I couldn't buy this being a specifically plotted thing, but a set of suggestions sent to many of his bannermen's houses... THAT makes good Tywin-quality sense.

[Mithras]

No, I just think Varys knew she was there. Another example would be Robb's plan in GoT. He didn't know Jaime was going to be really reckless when he set out, but his plan ended up working because of that. Sometimes stuff goes your way.

Wrt Jeynegate I also think people overestimate how hard it would be to get Robb to sleep with an attractive young noblewomen after a battle. Yes, as it happened, it was all to do with the wound and the grief, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened another way.

“She was more than that. Half of Lannisport used to go to her for charms and potions. She was mother to a petty lord, a wealthy merchant upjumped by my grandsire. This lord’s father had found her whilst trading in the east. Some say she cast a spell on him, though more like the only charm she needed was the one between her thighs. She was not always hideous, or so they said. I don’t recall the woman’s name. Something long and eastern and outlandish. The smallfolk used to call her Maggy.”

“Maegi?”

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

The plus side of this is if the rumors are true we'll maybe get some answers to this in the epilogue or prologue of the next book.

[ravenegg]

Ah--now HERE I can get on board--Tywin sharing details about Robb and how he might be taken advantage of--he grew up with an absurd level of honor--seducing him would lead to marriage--in the case of houses with eligible daughters. Maybe some other form of strategy suggested to other sorts of houses. I couldn't buy this being a specifically plotted thing, but a set of suggestions sent to many of his bannermen's houses... THAT makes good Tywin-quality sense.

I'm not trying to crack anyone's pot, you know :) - there are questions, which can be worth exploring, and then there are theories, which can come after such exploring. I do like a good theory, even some of the crazier ones. But mostly, just trying to see if there's more to some detail - in this case, Tywin's words.

(But speaking of crackpot, I saw some REALLY crazy ones the other day. Hilarious. "Roose Bolton is a vampire" and "Varys is a fish creature". Love'em. Crazier than fifteen barrels of monkeys, but also funnier.)

The plus side of this is if the rumors are true we'll maybe get some answers to this in the epilogue or prologue of the next book.

Indeed!

[roxWolfox]

^

The crackpots can be fun to read as we wait, but some of them are just :ack: . My favourites are on the oldest threads, so I haven't as yet caught up to the newer ones. Hodor+Catelyn=Rickon was the last one I read. It did my head in.

[ravenegg]

I think "Varys is a fish" must be on my all-time favourite list. I saw it, fittingly enough, on cracked.com http://www.cracked.com/article_21478_6-insane-but-convincing-game-thrones-fan-theories_p2.html

(The Roose Bolton one is perhaps not *as* crackpot, since he easily could be suspected of being at least not an entirely ordinary human. But I still love the squisher 'theory'.)

[TheCrannogDweller]

"His father's son" obviously refers to always being so darn honorable, even if it kills you.

Sure, Robb sticking to his father's notion of honor was one of his defining characteristics, but I would take that statement with a grain of salt. After all, Ned did ostensibly have a bastard - and for all we know a lot of people (and certainly Tywin) would be aware of the speculation that Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne.

So, no, Eddard Stark's son having sex with a noblewoman does not necessarily equal marriage.

Your speculation is correct. A careful reading of the text, and especially the scene in Tyrion SoS, suggests Tywin orchestrated the event. This is also stated in the Asoiaf app. On Robb Stark's page we are told Rolph and Sybelle plotted the marriage with Lord Tywin before it took place.

I'd like to see that quote from the app, please.

My own take is that it's highly unlikely that Tywin could've plotted this from the start. I believe Sybell made the first contact and Tywin just applied his talents from there.

From what we've seen of Tywin (and Robb, for that matter), there are just too many leaps of logic you have to take in order for this theory to make sense.

[Biter the Gallant]

It is right that Tywin was mocking Jeyne by stating that she is her mother's daughter, but that does not mean that Tywin was right. Tywin is a man with always the most selfish and malicious intentions in his mind, who assumes the same about everyone else.

From what we have seen about Jeyne, it seems she really loved Robb. Otherwise, why should she act the way we have seen her in AFFC? Why the conflict with her mother? If she was just pretending it, to whom did she want to lie with it? To Jaime? For what reason?

I think Jaime is right, Jeyne worths much more than her mother. Tywin was wrong.

And planning the whole Jeyne affair was simply impossible on Tywin's part, for several reasons.

1. He did not know that Robb will move with his main army from the Riverlands, and attack the Westerlands. Actually, that was a huge surprise and the fall of Tywin's overall military strategy.

2. He could not know beforehand that the Northerners will attack the Crag, neither that Robb will personally take part in the attack.

3. He could not know that Robb will be wounded.

4. He could not know that the news about the deaths of Bran and Rickon (which he was not aware of) will arrive just in time to make Robb a sad and grieving teenager, who fells in love with the first girl around.

5. And last but not least: Jeyne is a pretty girl, but not the beauty queen of Westeros. What were the chances that Robb will find her attractive? Ok, they were horny teens, but it is not something you can build your schemes on. And what were the chances that Robb will marry her after fucking? Living a sexual life before marriage or even making some bastards with another woman was not something in itself what Lord Frey might consider as a stain on Robb's honour, and a reason to betray him.

I accept the possibility that Sybell Spicer could have used a "love potion" to get Jeyne and the King of the North into making sex, but if she did, then her intentions originally might have been simply to make her daughter a queen. (The Lannisters seemed to lose the Wo5K back then.) Then later when the political situation has changed, Sybell contacted Tywin.

[Anythingatall]

On my latest re-read I began to think that it was indeed a set up from the beginning. I don't think the Red Wedding was the end goal, just a 'happy' bonus.

My 'theory' is that Tywin came up with this plan after Robb was installed with the Westerlings. Jeynes Mum set her and Robb up most likely manipulating Jeyne. Although Jeyne may have been consciously involved but fell for Robb later.

I am not against the idea that magic was used, after all it had just started working again. Jeynes Mum may have employed it not realising how powerful it would be.

[LongRider]

Once they had sex, Jeyne, the daughter of minor lord was now 'spoiled' by an enemy king and this could have had serious consequences for the girls future advantageous pairings. This would be a concern to Sybelle she may have insisted that Robb must marry her. Once that was done, then perhaps Tywin entered the picture.

[roxWolfox]

quoting TheCrannogDweller

Sure, Robb sticking to his father's notion of honor was one of his defining characteristics, but I would take that statement with a grain of salt. After all, Ned did ostensibly have a bastard - and for all we know a lot of people (and certainly Tywin) would be aware of the speculation that Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne.

So, no, Eddard Stark's son having sex with a noblewoman does not necessarily equal marriage.

On the other hand, Robb lived his entire life knowing:

-- how high-born bastards are treated/looked upon by the 'true-born' (e.g., Jon was not allowed to mingle with the royal family),

-- his own father, as noble as he was, impregnated a girl/woman during a war (RR) when he was already married.

We know Robb loved Jon fiercely, so who can say that he chose to marry Jeyne to prevent the occurrence of another Stark bastard being raised at Winterfell. A 16-17 year old could be convinced to think it easier to break a betrothal than a marriage if manipulative advisors gave him just cause (e.g., Jeyne's mother or father).

If nothing else, he would remember how much Jon loathed being a bastard, and how much Catelyn loathed having to house Ned's bastard in her own home -- this knowledge alone may have been the primary reason for him chosing to marry Jeyne.

In the end, we'll never know, and any of the characters claiming that the entirety of the plots/plans were instigated by Tywin ( Robb having sex with Jeyne, and the following marriage) are just doing so to save their own skin, much like the Freys told Manderly's court that Robb and his northmen became wolfmen and Wyman's son was killed protecting the Frey's from said wolfmen.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

quoting TheCrannogDweller

Sure, Robb sticking to his father's notion of honor was one of his defining characteristics, but I would take that statement with a grain of salt. After all, Ned did ostensibly have a bastard - and for all we know a lot of people (and certainly Tywin) would be aware of the speculation that Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne.

So, no, Eddard Stark's son having sex with a noblewoman does not necessarily equal marriage.

On the other hand, Robb lived his entire life knowing:

-- how high-born bastards are treated/looked upon by the 'true-born' (e.g., Jon was not allowed to mingle with the royal family),

-- his own father, as noble as he was, impregnated a girl/woman during a war (RR) when he was already married.

We know Robb loved Jon fiercely, so who can say that he chose to marry Jeyne to prevent the occurrence of another Stark bastard being raised at Winterfell. A 16-17 year old could be convinced to think it easier to break a betrothal than a marriage if manipulative advisors gave him just cause (e.g., Jeyne's mother or father).

If nothing else, he would remember how much Jon loathed being a bastard, and how much Catelyn loathed having to house Ned's bastard in her own home -- this knowledge alone may have been the primary reason for him chosing to marry Jeyne.

In the end, we'll never know, and any of the characters claiming that the entirety of the plots/plans were instigated by Tywin ( Robb having sex with Jeyne, and the following marriage) are just doing so to save their own skin, much like the Freys told Manderly's court that Robb and his northmen became wolfmen and Wyman's son was killed protecting the Frey's from said wolfmen.

It's classic tragedy: Robb dies a result of choices he's made under the (self-imposed) pressure to fill his father's shoes. Marrying Jeyne is Robb overcompensating in an attempt to not repeat his father's mistake [which, of course Ned never actually made, he just told everyone he made it]. He has to marry her, for the same reason he has to lead his armies personally, has to behead Rickard Karstark personally, and has to apologize to Walder Frey face-to-face. And thus he has to die for it.

If Sybelle Spicer is as much the ambitious schemer Tywin may have (and Jaime certainly) thinks she is, I can certainly see her being caught between chasing the carrot of the ultimate trade up (quick marrying her daughter to King Robb, who clearly is gallant and chivalrous because look how kindly he's treating us in defeat) vs. the stick of "Oh Shit I have double-crossed Tywin" -- doubly ominous when, as Tyrion points out, they're the next door neighbors to the still-vacant Castamere, and even more so once the Tyrell alliance and the defeat of Stannis puts Tywin back on top and makes him the likely eventual winner. I'll bet she was very eager to then get in touch with Tywin to see if there were any way to prove she was still down with the lion. Assuming she didn't write Tywin when Robb was on the way asking for orders which Tywin sent back in the form of "infiltrate, use Jeyne as a honeypot if possible" in the first place. And of course now that Tywin is dead and thus much less intimidating to defy :) and Sybelle is upset both about her son Reynald dying at The Twins as unwitting collateral damage, and she's been "dissed" by only getting bastard Joy Hill as a marriage match for her surviving son, she may well be playing both sides again [Jaime seems to think so, since he's still so aware of how dangerous/valuable Jeyne could still be for the other side]

[of man and wolf]

I can believe this theory as a means of perhaps diminishing Robb's army and in effect drawing the ire of Walder Frey who is known for being a fence sitter, but the red wedding was just mere luck and a bonus for Tywin, as he could not foresee Robb choosing to ever marry the girl.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Assuming she didn't write Tywin when Robb was on the way asking for orders which Tywin sent back in the form of "infiltrate, use Jeyne as a honeypot if possible" in the first place.

That's one of the parts that don't make sense to me. How would they know that Robb was coming to the Crag?

And even if they knew, why would they ask for instructions? It seems to me that it's fairly obvious what they have to do when an enemy commander is attacking them - defend themselves and try to kill him.

And in so far as premeditation goes - the Crag was never said to be strategically important (or rich, for that matter) so why would anyone assume that Robb would strike there of all places?

Then there is the supposition that Tywin sent a raven (or ravens) with the plan "Throw your daughters at Robb and make one of them marry him" to at least the Westerlings, if not to all his lords in that part of the Westerlands. I buy that even less, considering that Tywin trusts only Kevan with his council - IMO he is not the man to put such a sensitive scheme in writing and send it to not only Lords who might not deserve his trust, but also in an area, when one such raven could be easily shot down and the message discovered.

My opinion is that once he had taken the Crag, Robb would've taken control of their ravens - meaning that until the point they swore fealty to him and he married Jeyne, Sybelle wouldn't have had a way to communicate with Tywin.

[RainGhost]

The textual evidence appears to point towards Tywin having a hand in Jeynegate. Therefore, I would liken it to Cersei's plan to have Robert killed (perhaps Cersei is more like Tywin than we thought). In both cases, the Lannisters threw a seed into the wind and it unexpectedly grew into a huge tree. There is no way that Tywin can somehow influence Jeyne to want to sleep with Robb and Robb to sleep with Jeyne. Yes, they are both teenagers but they are also both virgins at this point and they have minds of their own. The only way this works is if both Robb and Jeyne were given love potions.

When Tywin says "Robb Stark is his father's son" he's right. There was always a good chance that Robb would marry any highborn girl he deflowered. However, when Tywin says "Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter" he's wrong, as Jaime finds out.Tywin basically thinks of Sybelle as a whore (like Tysha) and thinks Jeyne will be the same. Jeyne says to Catelyn "I don't feel like a grace", which suggests that she married Robb for him, not for the crown. What are the chances of Jeyne falling for Robb? Remember, he stole her castle, killed some of their men and is holding her father captive. It's a real shame Tywin's matchmaking skills weren't so good when making matches for his own children.

In conclusion, if Tywin was behind this, it only worked because the stars (and GRRM) were very firmly lined against the Starks and in favour of the Lannisters. The chances of this plot working were as slim as the chances of a boar killing Robert and a shadowbaby killing Renly.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

In conclusion, if Tywin was behind this, it only worked because the stars (and GRRM) were very firmly lined against the Starks and in favour of the Lannisters. The chances of this plot working were as slim as the chances of a boar killing Robert and a shadowbaby killing Renly.

I agree.Jeyne marrying Robb and the Red Wedding were not planned together.Tywin managed (with a lot of Lannister lack) to destroy the Frey-Stark wedding but the Frey-Bolton betrayal was something else.Lannisters were extremely lucky that Robb had such treacherous banners.And the Jeyne plan could not go as well as he planned because Tywin himself said people in this age care for lust,passion,honour and not logic.Westerlings could change sides if Robb's wins continued.

[UnFit Finlay]

My own feeling is that the Red Wedding would've happened whether Robb had married Jeyne or not. The only difference is that it would've been Robb's wedding, not Edmure's.

Walder Frey might be a fence sitter but he knows when to pick a side. The Iron Born taking the North, Stannis' defeat on the Blackwater and the Lannisters alliances with Highgarden and Dorne were enough to convince Roose Bolton that Robb's cause was hopeless and it was time to switch sides, I really doubt his father in law took much convincing to avoid the wrath of Tywin Lannister.

I think the marriage to Jeyne was simply a happy accident (well, not really "happy" as such) in that it provided the Freys with a way to lure Robb to the Twins as well as giving them an excuse for their actions. The Westerling's part could've been as simple as making sure that Robb got there without no suspicion and that Jeyne didn't get pregnant.

[roxWolfox]

^

Interesting thought. I guess it all depends on whether Lord Walder wanted a daughter as a queen or not.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

My own feeling is that the Red Wedding would've happened whether Robb had married Jeyne or not. The only difference is that it would've been Robb's wedding, not Edmure's.

I'm not sure something on the scale of the Red Wedding would have happened, but I do agree that Walder would have eventually turned on Robb in some capacity. He's just mad Robb beat him to the punch.