Did the North *ever* stand a chance?

[RainGhost]

The North most certainly had a chance but Robb became overconfident and thought he was above the law. If he had kept his promise with the Freys... and not beheaded Lord Karstark... and communicated his battle plans to Edmure Tully... and not trusted the irrational Balon Greyjoy to make a rational decision. Pretty much, if he would have just listened to his counselors, he could have won.

Of course, blame it all on one person because that's not oversimplifying. What makes you think that Robb thought he was above the law? What a bizarre thing to say. I agree that Robb should never have trusted Balon, should have kept his promise to the Freys and should have told Edmure the plan if they had a clear plan when they went West. However, if he had not beheaded Karstark he would have completely lost control of his men and looked weak. Also, other than Catelyn's advice not to let Theon go, what good advice did Robb ignore? And you're completely glossing over the Blackwater here as though that had no impact whatsoever.

[devilish]

Roose didn't have to fight a battle. All he had to do was stay close enough to Tywin to keep Tywin coming northward. That said, a battle is not unreasonable, and I don't think the overnight march was a horrible, horrible gamble.

That said, I think it's fairly obvious why Tyrion doesn't see a single Bolton banner anywhere on the field. GRRM basically says no one expects him to win a battle, but he looks great if he does. Well he also gets the chance to deliberately weaken his neighbors and rivals for influence and power in the North. He obviously couldn't get men like Hornwood and Cerwyn killed automatically, but he can put them in a position to die or be captured.

If Roose wanted Robb Stark's head on a platter he would have pulled his army immediately and allow the old lion to rip the wolf apart. There's no way Robb could have won a battle on two ends (Jamie's forces on one side and Tywin's forces on another). It may be the case that Roose wanted Horewood dead. However at that point he was certainly not planning to backstab Robb.

[Universal Sword Donor]

If Roose wanted Robb Stark's head on a platter he would have pulled his army immediately and allow the old lion to rip the wolf apart. There's no way Robb could have won a battle on two ends (Jamie's forces on one side and Tywin's forces on another). It may be the case that Roose wanted Horewood dead. However at that point he was certainly not planning to backstab Robb.

If Roose had done that, he'd have been strung up by the rest of the bannermen there for leaving Robb to rot. I never said he wanted Robb's head (at that point), just that he isn't missing the chance to weaken his rivals.

[Balerion the kitten]

I really cannot think their the life of a slave has improved at all. If you are a slave, then one moment you are taking care of the family that owns them and Dany pops in and frees you, so now you are taking care of a whole army. If they are not slaves, then how does she pay them? By taking care of them I guess, but who is taking care of who? She is now ordering them around to take care of herself, her army and themselves. That is an awfully lot of work. It seems that slavery would have been easier with the one family. Now Dany does give them the option to leave or follow her, but what choice do the really have. Where would they go to get food and shelter except back to their owners? It's not like she offered them 40 acres and a mule. Their choice is following her army and digging latrines or going back to their owners.

I would agree with you if the slaves didn't view her as their mother and saviour, but they do. Sure one slave might have had a nice life with their masters, but the others were whipped, beaten, abused and mistreated.

Edit- spelt whipped as wiped (I know insanley stupid)

[Blackfish Tully]

If the entire plan hinged on Tywin being lured westwards, not telling Edmure was criminally stupid. So really, it depends on whether you consider the Blackfish (and Robb) stupid or dishonourable. Pick your poison.

When they left Riverrun Edmure had let all of his troops go home to defend their own lands so all he had left at Riverrun was a large garrison. The thought that he would call all his banners including the ones at the Twins and enter a full scale battle with Tywin seemed to be inconceivable to Robb and the Blackfish . Sending a message to Edmure about the plan was risky and they obviously decided against it and that was a mistake but it was understandable.

[Universal Sword Donor]

When they left Riverrun Edmure had let all of his troops go home to defend their own lands so all he had left at Riverrun was a large garrison. The thought that he would call all his banners including the ones at the Twins and enter a full scale battle with Tywin seemed to be inconceivable to Robb and the Blackfish . Sending a message to Edmure about the plan was risky and they obviously decided against it and that was a mistake but it was understandable.

It was still a dumb idea not to tell him. They didn't even have to tell him the entire plan, just "Whatever you do, do not oppose Tywin's crossing. We need him going west."

[thelittledragonthatcould]

When they left Riverrun Edmure had let all of his troops go home to defend their own lands so all he had left at Riverrun was a large garrison. The thought that he would call all his banners including the ones at the Twins and enter a full scale battle with Tywin seemed to be inconceivable to Robb and the Blackfish . Sending a message to Edmure about the plan was risky and they obviously decided against it and that was a mistake but it was understandable.

What plan?

They didn't know that the Tyrells were now on the Lannisters side.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

It was still a dumb idea not to tell him. They didn't even have to tell him the entire plan, just "Whatever you do, do not oppose Tywin's crossing. We need him going west."

"But if he turns back east then do oppose him."

[The Wolves]

They did fine when it was multiple kingdoms. When its a United South against the North it is a different story..

The Starks held it fine as one United kingdom and they spent thousands of years holding off the multiple southern kingdoms.

Also why would the South unite to take it? They know the multiple armies that have died trying to take it, it's savage people, deadly winters, and practically vast unusable lands. What would the south get from taking the North but death and a waste of their time.

[Blackfish Tully]

I'm sorry but they didn't have a plan as they had no way of knowing that the Tyrells would even join the Crown. That partnership was not even on Robbs radar, he says as much to his mother on the way to the Twins.

He and the Blackfish have no idea what the Tyrells (who were already out of the Reach and on the Blackwater) would have done, Edmure just seems to be the easy scapegoat. They needed someone to blame and as anyone who has worked in a large organization knows the shit trickles down. It is also notable how they dont lambast him infront of more experienced commanders such as Bracken and Blackwood who could pull them up on this 'plan'.

And if Edmure s supposed to stay inside the Riverrrun what is stopping a messenger from the Golden Tooth riding to inform Tywin that Stannis has left Srorm End and Tywin turning around or even a rider from Tarly. The Battle of the Fords lasted 3 days, we know from Jaime that Riverrun to the Golden Tooth is only 2 days ride.

There is still time for Tywin to make it to Kings Landing with or without Edmure acting.

You cannot say for sure that they did not have a plan just like I cannot say for sure they did but I believe in Brynden Tully and i do not believe he would just lie about something so important.

Why would they not have a plan to deal with Tywin if he came west . They knew that there was a pretty good chance he would be coming , Tywin could not just sit there forever and let Robb tear apart the Westerlands without responding . It would be insanely stupid of Robb and the Blackfish to stay in the Westerlands and not have a plan to deal with Tywin.

[Lord Damian]

Robb did not offer Ser Jaime in the negotiations with reasonable terms. Robb forsake his sisters to a degree. Cat, more than Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling sealed their fate by releasing Ser Jaime. Ser Jaime's wellbeing was Tywin Lannister's one weak spot.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The Starks held it fine as one United kingdom and they spent thousands of years holding off the multiple southern kingdoms.

Also why would the South unite to take it? They know the multiple armies that have died trying to take it, it's savage people, deadly winters, and practically vast unusable lands. What would the south get from taking the North but death and a waste of their time.

When the North is defending itself from the Vale, the Ironborn or one of the many smaller Riverland kingdoms it has advantages such as knowing the enemy has to keep enough military at home just in case one of their Southern neighbours attacks. A united South can focus on taking the North without worrying about other threats.

Plus its coming up to a long winter, the last long winter the North was dependent on the South for food and the previous long Winter before that there was a lot of famine in the North.

All the South has to do is blockade the White Harbour, refuse to send food and wait for the North to come crawling back.

You cannot say for sure that they did not have a plan just like I cannot say for sure they did but I believe in Brynden Tully and i do not believe he would just lie about something so important.

Why would they not have a plan to deal with Tywin if he came west . They knew that there was a pretty good chance he would be coming , Tywin could not just sit there forever and let Robb tear apart the Westerlands without responding . It would be insanely stupid of Robb and the Blackfish to stay in the Westerlands and not have a plan to deal with Tywin.

You are ignoring what I'm saying. Robb and the Blackfish had no idea about the Tyrells.

It does not really matter where Tywin is, it is the Tyrells who won the battle of Blackwater.

[Blackfish Tully]

It was still a dumb idea not to tell him. They didn't even have to tell him the entire plan, just "Whatever you do, do not oppose Tywin's crossing. We need him going west."

I cannot argue that it was not a good idea to tell Edmure the plan but does Edmure not bear any responsibility in the matter. Shouldn't he have known that Tywin was staying at Harrenhall to defend Kings Landing when Stannis attacks and couldn't he read a map and realize that cutting Tywin off from Kings Landing was best for the overall war effort? Isn't that why Edmure asked to be in the van of the next battle and agreed to marry the Frey girl . He knew he screwed up.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I cannot argue that it was not a good idea to tell Edmure the plan but does Edmure not bear any responsibility in the matter. Shouldn't he have known that Tywin was staying at Harrenhall to defend Kings Landing when Stannis attacks and couldn't he read a map and realize that cutting Tywin off from Kings Landing was best for the overall war effort? Isn't that why Edmure asked to be in the van of the next battle and agreed to marry the Frey girl . He knew he screwed up.

He didn't screw up.

Robb is all the way on the coast. There is nothing stopping Tywin from turning around, there is nothing stopping the Tyrells from attacking Stannis.

[Ser Creighton]

I am not sure I understand the question? If the question is in fact did the North ever stand a chance, the answer is no, 100% no. Martin always had them losing, they are not real, they are just part of Martins story and from the begining they were losing that war, there was never the option for victory.

If the question is can fans make things up in there head to create a scenerio in which the north wins? Then yes, fans can make up a lot of things. You see little does Tywin know that beneath Winterfell are five giant robotic dire wolves. When piloted by 5 Stark children they are capable of combining to form the giant robot Volstark, defender of the realm. What chance could the Lannisters have against Volstark? None that's what chance they would have had.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I am not sure I understand the question? If the question is in fact did the North ever stand a chance, the answer is no, 100% no. Martin always had them losing, they are not real, they are just part of Martins story and from the begining they were losing that war, there was never the option for victory.

If the question is can fans make things up in there head to create a scenerio in which the north wins? Then yes, fans can make up a lot of things. You see little does Tywin know that beneath Winterfell are five giant robotic dire wolves. When piloted by 5 Stark children they are capable of combining to form the giant robot Volstark, defender of the realm. What chance could the Lannisters have against Volstark? None that's what chance they would have had.

I know GRRM is usually loathe to use fanfiction but this story has legs. This could be the anime version that opens the series to a whole new continent.

[The Wolves]

When the North is defending itself from the Vale, the Ironborn or one of the many smaller Riverland kingdoms it has advantages such as knowing the enemy has to keep enough military at home just in case one of their Southern neighbours attacks. A united South can focus on taking the North without worrying about other threats.

Plus its coming up to a long winter, the last long winter the North was dependent on the South for food and the previous long Winter before that there was a lot of famine in the North.

All the South has to do is blockade the White Harbour, refuse to send food and wait for the North to come crawling back.

The North would have the main advantage of fighting on their home base, I doubt they would go out looking for a fight the only thing they would have to worry about is their east and west coast borders they can stop multiple armies at Moat Cailin.

Theon Stark was able to fight the Andals, Ironborn, Wildlings, Boltons and the Vale in his time and win. Again whoes going to unite to take on the North? Dorne? The Vale? The Riverlands? Most houses in the South doesn't think the North is worth taking.

And yeah the throne helped the North but that was like twice in a few winters the North had suffered through worse winters they will be okay.

[Blackfish Tully]

You are ignoring what I'm saying. Robb and the Blackfish had no idea about the Tyrells.

It does not really matter where Tywin is, it is the Tyrells who won the battle of Blackwater.

I wasn't ignoring what you said but it's just that that is a totally different argument then what we were discussing. If the Tyrells would have won the battle on their own then it does not matter what Robb or the Blackfish or Edmure did so there is no point point in blaming any of them.

I personally believe that you are wrong about the Battle of the Blackwater. First off I do not think it's a slam dunk that the Tyrells attack Stannis without Tywin there and I do not believe that it's guaranteed that they would win . Tywin brought 20,000 battle hardened troops with him and that's a lot of soldiers to not have during the battle . Losing Tywin's experience and his soldiers has to affect the battle plans. Also the Tyrells have shown a incredible amount of caution during the wars we have seen , attacking Stannis on their own may be to risky for them.

[Tyrell_like_Squirrel]

Are you kidding me? The North nearly won the war, Robb's strategy had basically debilitated the Westernlands. It was Edmure Tully, Walder Frey, and Tywin Lannister that ended up bringing him down. Theon and the Ironborn are a real thorn, but if Robb could have defeated Tywin in the field by luring him into the west, that would butterfly away the red wedding, it wouldn't matter if he reneged on his oath to the Freys, and he could have made some sort of deal with Stannis, who most certainly would have taken King's Landing.

So to answer the question, no the North was not doomed from the start. The Lannister's are LOSING the war of the five kings for most of ACOK.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1. Robb declares himself King after the Whispering Wood.

2. Balon is not batshit crazy and joins Robb (the only ally that would give him his heart's desire - independence for the Iron Isles). The Iron Fleet descends on the Westerlands with a vengeance, with 20k Ironmen laying waste to the countryside, making it unnecessary for Robb to go West.

3. Instead, Robb goes East, to meet Tywin's 20k men with his own Northern/Riverland army of around 40k. Tywin is cut off from his supply lines, his homeland is being burned to the ground by the Ironborn, and Robb has him outnumbered 2-1. There is no food in Harrenhal to feed 20k men for any length of time, so Tywin is defeated. Either he makes a desperate attempt to attack Robb's superior army, or he hightails it to King's Landing, to try and defend it from Stannis. Either way, Robb now rules all the Riverlands, and large parts of the West is under Ironborn control. Tywin has no hope of reinforcement or resupply.

Whether at King's Landing against Stannis, or in the Riverlands against Robb, Tywin is defeated, or is forced to surrender.

4. Meanwhile, Bran is in charge of Winterfell. Robb now has a consolidated realm stretching from the Wall to the Trident, and from the Golden Tooth to the Gates of the Moon. He has a Northern/Riverland army of around 40k men. And an Ironborn fleet of 500 warships. Even if Stannis wins at the Blackwater, Robb can command Rodrik to raise another 10k Northmen, while a united Riverlands can start tapping into its full strength, easily raising another 10k Riverlanders from the populous Riverlands, bringing Robb's strength up to around 60k men, excluding the Ironborn.

That leaves Robb ruling the northern half of Westeros, with 60k men (excluding the Ironborn) under his command. This while Stannis has an uneasy alliance with half of the Reach, and while the Vale and Dorne are neutral - though both more likely to side with Robb than with the Tyrells.

In short, Robb is more than powerful enough to enforce a stalemate against Stannis. Goal achieved.

EDIT

In short, it all hinged on Balon being sane. The fact that he took the batshit crazy route led to Robb's downfall. Change that one decision by Batshit Balon, and everything changes.