[spoilers] The North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. Summary/continuance of the Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, Pink Letter Threads.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

To start thanks to everyone who posted to the original Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, and Pink Letter threads for having already highlighted most of this information. You are to numerous to mention but you know who you are, and though you are not cited by name you deserve the credit for having already pointed much of this out.

What follows is my effort to synthesize much of the information available in the Northern Lords Conspiracy Thread, the Hooded Man Thread, and the numerous Pink Letter Threads. Hopefully this post, along w/ edits and additions to the thread, can help clarify how things currently stand in the North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. There are a couple of things I’ve missed and no doubt there are some things that are incorrect. Any feedback, edits, or additions (like the current status at the wall, which I have not included) would be greatly appreciated.

The Leech Lord, The Bastard, and Pie Meat.

Roose Bolton

Title: Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North

Men-at-arms: 5,000 – 6,000

5,000 to 6,000 total within Winterfell (theon sample chapter). Roose marched north w/ an estimated 3,600 Northmen mostly form the Dreadfort and 1,000 Frey men (Reek/Theon p.266 aDwD) putting his Numbers around 4,600.

If this is correct than Roose added approximately 400-1400 additional forces upon returning to the North putting his strength in Winterfell at 5,000 to 6,000.

Traits: Known for being cunning, skilled, and ruthless commander.

Last Seen: In the Great Hall of Winterfell.

Notes: Roose indicates to Theon that he knows “Manderly plots betrayal” (Reek p.430)

Ramsay Bolton

Title: Lord of Hornwood, Lord of Winterfell, Castellan of the Dreadfort

Men-at-arms:

Unknown but Theon estimated the combined forces of Ramsay, the Freys and Manderlys was half of Roose’s total force of 5-6,000. If Manderly and Frey both have 1,000 men Ramasy would have no more than 500-1000 men producing a combined force of 2,500 to 3,000.

Traits: Cruel, cunning, and sadistic. His fetishes overwhelm his intelligence.

Last Seen: In the Great Hall of Winterfell

Notes:

Ramsay is disliked by essentially all of the Northern Lords. Roose indicates to Theon that Ramsay is a poor fighter and an unskilled swordsman.

Hosteen Frey

Title: Ser.

Men-at-arms: 1,000

Theon estimated the Freys had 1,000 men as they marched north with Roose Bolton. This included 100 knights and a plethora of bowman, spearman, freeriders.

Traits: Know for being strong, and capable fighter, he’s also thought of as stupid.

Last Seen:

Leaving the Great Hall of the Winterfell after revealing the death of Little Walder and stabbing Wyman Manderly to amass the Frey forces at the main gate of Winterfell.

Last Reference:

Hosteen and Aenys Frey reportedly fell into Mors Umber’s pit trap outside the main gate of winterfell. Hosteen’s horse died and Aenys broke his neck joining Hosteen’s horse in death.

Notes:

The North Remembers, Frey. In the Theon sample chapter form AWOW it’s reported to Stannis by Tycho and confirmed by Theon that the Freys exited Winterfell, falling into a trap set by Mors Umber. Aenys Frey is reported to have fallen and died from a broken neck, Hosteen Frey survived but his horse didn’t. It is unknown what the Freys did after falling into Mors trap.

“Arya Stark”

It is repeatedly noted that Arya Stark is key to the Bolton claim to Winterfell and the allegiance of the Northern Lords.

It’s know throughout Winterfell that “Arya” is being mistreated, Lady Dustin mentions that “Lady Arya’s sobs do us more harm than all of Stannis’ swords and spears” (“The Turncloak” aDwD p.545).

“Arya” has escaped and there is no longer a “Stark” in Winterfell.

Theon makes a huge issue about her eyes, and Arya is said to have looked the most like her father and thus the most like a Stark. There are numerous individuals that likely recognize “Arya” is a fake. Mance for one. In in aSoS he knew who Jon was because he attended the feast for King Robert. While Jon stood out for having made a bit of a fool of himself, and talking to Benjen Stark, he was not w/ the rest of the Stark children and he notes that he was on the opposite side of the hall away from the singer/musicians (i.e. Mance). “A singer was playing the high harp and reciting a ballad, but down at this end of the hall his voice could scarcely be heard above the roar of the fire, the clangor of pewter plates and cups, and the low mutter of a hundred drunken conversations.” (Jon 1 aGoT p.31)Thus even though Jon was isolated away from the other Starks and on the opposite side of the Great Hall, Mance still recognized who he was and remembered him nearly 2 years later (estimate based on the awesome timeline thread). The Cerwyns because of their proximity to Winterfell should recognize “Arya.” Theon also seems to think Lady Dustin knows “Arya” is a fake.

Northern Lords known to oppose the Boltons

Wyman Manderly

Title:

Lord of White Harbor, Warden of the White Knife, Shield of the Faith, Defender of the Dispossessed, Lord Marshal of the Mander, A Knight of the Order of the Green Hand.

Men-at-arms:

Unknown. It seems safe to assume that the Manderlys have a force of comparable strength as the Freys, near 1,000.

Traits: jolly, fat old man who is believed to be craven.

Last seen:

Blubbering on the floor of the Great Keep of Winterfell after having been stabbed through many of his numerous chins. He was being assisted by lord Locke and Measters Medrick formerly of Hornwood in Winterfell. Wyman’s health is unknown. Roose commanded the Manderly to collect his forces at the Eastern Gate of Winterfell to strike the first blow at Stannis. There has been no confirmation whether or not Manderly’s men have left Winterfell.

Notes:

Manderly and Ramsay have beef:

Ramsay killed Lady Hornwood in a most aweful manner. Lady Hornwood was Wyman’s cousin, a women he wished to marry – never mind the whole cousin thing. His offer seems to be the only one that wasn’t based on greedy self-interest, seeing as he’s plenty wealthy without the Hornwood claim.

Manderly Knows:

He knows that Roose lies about his role in the Red Wedding, and Ramsay lies about his role in the sacking of Winterfell (Davos aDwD p.392).

Manderly is plotting betrayal:

Manderly, Davos and Robett Glover have conspired to locate Rickon on Skagos and return him to White Harbor/Winterfell.

Wex:

Manderly and Glover somehow received Theon’s former squire an Iron Born boy named Wex. Though he lacks speech, he knows yes and no, he also witnessed what happened during the sacking of Winterfell. Robett is teaching him to learn more of what actually transpired in Winterfell.

Umber Connections:

Wyman and the Umbers (both Whoresbane and Crowfood) were put to work building a fleet for Robb (Bran aCoK p.255-256). There is also a possible link based on how Robett tells Davos of how Wex had come to them (Davos aDwD p. 392).

Northern Lords and Ladies of questionable allegiance

Lady Barbary Dustin

Title: Lady of Barrowtown.

Men-at-arms:

Unknown. She indicates that she did not send many men south with Robb. Her personal strength is likely augmented by her Ryswell relatives’ forces. Harwood Stout is also a bannerman of loyal to House Dustin.

Traits: Stern, bitter and known to nurse a grudge.

Last seen:

the Solar of Winterfell during the interrogation of Theon (in “A Ghost in Winterfell”)

Notes:

Lady Dustin hates Ned Stark and Catelyn Tully. She also hates Ramsay Bolton. Oh and maesters.

Rodrik Ryswell

Title: Lord of the Rills.

Men-at-arms: Unknown. It is known that his cousins are also present in Winterfell.

Traits: He and his cousins are known as quarrelsome.

Last seen:

I’m not sure. The wiki says he was present at the interrogation of theon in the “A Ghost in Winterfell” chapter, but when I checked the text it refers to Roger Ryswell not Rodrik. I think the last time Rodrik is seen at the wedding in “The Prince of Winterfell” chapter and even then I’m not certain he is specifically referenced.

Notes:

The Ryswells were the first Northern Lords to declare for Roose Bolton. Roose was married to a Ryswell who gave birth to his heir, Domeric Bolton. It is believed that Ramsay killed him. This probably doesn’t sit well w/ the quarrelsome Ryswells.

Hother Whoresbane Umber

Title: Co-Castellan of Last Hearth

Men-at-arms: The few remaining grey beards at Last Hearth.

Traits:

disemboweling those he doesn’t like. See for example his namesake and Lady Dustin’s comment to Aenys Frey, “If you did not hold the GreatJon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them.”

Last seen: The Great Hall of Winterfell.

Notes:

GreatJon Umber is held captive at the Twins, it is well known this is the only reason Whoresbane has declared for the Boltons. At the harvest in aCoK the Umbers and Manderlys set about clandestinely building a fleet of ships for Robb.

Lord Ondrew Locke

Title: Lord of Old Castle

Men-at-arms: Unknown

Traits: Old and toothless.

Last seen:

calling for a Maester to assist Lord Wyman after he was stabbed by Hosteen Frey.

Notes:

An unknown Locke expressed a distaste for Ramsay at White Harbor. He seemed to care for Wyman’s health, so he’s got that going for him.

Wild Cards

Mance Rayder (and the Spearwives)

Title: King Beyond The Wall.

Spearwives: Rowan, Holly, Squirrel, Fryena, Myrtle, and Willow Witch-eye.

Traits: His appearance is unremarkable, he’s skilled at combat and persuasion.

Last Seen:

Mance is last seen sitting cross-legged on the high table in the Great Hall of Winterfell playing a sad soft song that theon didn’t recognize.

Rowan, Myrtle and Willow were last seen heading back toward the Great Keep of Winterfell to regroup w/ Mance.

Fryena was last seen fighting half a dozen guards on the drawbridge between the inner and outer walls of Winterfell.

Holly was last seen falling from the battlements of the outer wall of Winterfell after being hit by two crossbow quarrels one in the stomach the other in the chest.

Squirrel was last seen in the bedchambers of the Great Keep of Winterfell.

Last Referenced:

Mance and the spearwives are last referenced in the Pink Letter, the Letter is however shrouded in mystery. Taken at face value Mance is in cage in the yard of winterfell wearing the skins of the 6 spearwives. I find this head to believe.

Notes:

Mance selected the spearwives specifically for his ploy. Freyna was able overpower a guard, disarm and kill him, as well as take on half a dozen Men-at-arms with only a spear. Mance is a skilled swordsman he neutralized Jon’s Valyrian Steel advantage in the yard of Castle Black. He defeated 5 rivals for the title of King Beyond The Wall. 3 he killed in combat and he persuaded the other 2 (Tormund Gaintsbane and Styr, the Magnar of Thenn) and he still had to convince tens of thousands more to become King Beyond the Wall.

Arnolf Karstark

Title: Castellan of Karhold

Men-at-arms: 400 spearmen, two score archers, dozen mounted lances.

Traits: Treacherous.

Last seen: Being taken away by Stannis’s to await the King’s Justice.

Notes:

Karstark declared for Stannis but it is known that he intended to turn cloak for the Boltons. Karstark’s treachery was discovered by Jon Snow because of Alys Karstark. Jon sent word via Tycho Nestori to Stannis. Stannis has Karstark and his men under guard awaiting justice. As far as we know the Bolton’s don’t know that their plot w/ Alford has been found out.

Mors Umber

Title: Co-Castellan.

Men-at-arms: The few remaining greenboys left at Last Hearth.

Traits: Big, old, badass w/ only one-eye and a huge bears pelt that wears about town.

Last seen: Outside the walls of Winterfell Grinning at the prospect of getting to kill some Freys.

Notes:

When Stannis asks Jon if Mors can be trusted Jon’s response is “Your Grace should have him swear an oath before his heart tree.” (Jon aDwD p.223)

Mors declared for Stannis on the basis that Stannis deliver Mance’s Skull a pardon for Whoresbane (Jon aDwD p.223).

Mors has declared for Stannis. Mors made it to Winterfell by “The Ghost in Winterfell” chapter having been mistaken by those inside Winterfell for being Stannis. Mors uses storm cover to dig a pit trap in front of the Main Gate of Winterfell and starts sounding his war horn and drums. Mors captures Theon and “Arya” beneath the outer walls of Winterfell. Mors gets word that the main gate is opening, we learn later that the Freys exited Winterfell only to fall into Mors trap. Aenys Frey fell and broke his neck dying form his injuries, Hosteen Frey survived but lost his horse. At some point after this time Tycho Nestori arrives outside Winterfell and meets with Mors, who sends the Braavosi Banker to Stannis. The exact chronology is hazy. It’s not clear what happened between the Freys exiting Winterfell and Tycho’s arrival.

Tycho Nestori

Title: Representative of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

Men-at-Arms: 2 men of the Nights Watch, 6 Iron Born.

Traits: Tall, graceful.

Last Seen: Preparing to leave Stannis camp in the unknown village by the lake.

Notes:

At the Wall Tycho met w/ Jon who sent him with 2 men of the Watch to find Stannis, Jon also sent Stannis word of Karstarks treachery. Tycho made it to Deepwood Motte after Strannis has Departed for Winterfell. He ransomed the Iron Born hostages Lady Glover held and sett out for Winterfell. Tycho made it Winterfell where he met w/ Mors Umber. Received Theon and “Arya” and word that the Frey’s had fallen into Mors trap and continued onto Stannis. Tycho reached Stannis delivered the hostages and information and treated with him until they came to terms on some outstanding debts held by the Throne and some new ones incurred by Stannis. Tycho is preparing to leave for home by way of the wall accompanied by Ser Massey, “Arya” and Alysane Mormont.

Surviving Stark Children.

Bran, Bloodraven and the old gods beyond the Wall.

Sansa and Littlefinger in the Vale.

Arya in Braavos w/ the Faceless Men.

Rickon, Osha and Shaggydog on Skagos.

The King at the Wall/Unknown Village:

Stannis Baratheon

Title: Lord of Dragonstone, Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, King of Westeros.

Men-at-Arms: 4000-6000

The majority of Stannis’ host is comprised of Northerners. There are an estimate 3000-4000 form the Mountain Clans (Flints, Liddles, Wulls, and Norreys). Big Bucket Wull has a passion for verse and a lyrical desire to split the heads of Boltons (p.562 aDwD). The Glovers, Mormonts, Tallharts, Cerwyns, Hornwoods all have men in Stannis’s host. The Karstarks have 400 men of questionable loyalty. The rest of Stannis host is comprised of the southern knights from the Stromlands who have remained loyal to Stannis.

Traits: Lacks people skills. A great Commander, tactician, known to be cautious.

Last Seen:

Stannis is still in the unknown village 3 west of Winterfell (Theon aWoW sample chapter).

Timeline:

According to Asha’s and Theon’s POV’s Stannis’ host has been marching from Deepwood Mote to Winterfell for 53/54 days(Asha “Sacrifice” ends on the night of the 53^rd day of the trek, Theon’s aWoW sample chapter takes place during the next morning). Asha brakes it down into 34 days of marching (p. 560-562 aDwD), and 19/20 days camping (p.815aDwD, Theon Sample Chapter aWoW). Asha indicates Karstark had been w/ Stannis for 8 days (p.817), on the night that Tycho et al. arrive at the unknown village (p. 826). This means that Mors has been outside of winterfell for at least 8 days by the time Theon and “Arya” escape, even though he had only announced his presence the night before (Theon “A Ghost in Winterfell” p.614). This also means that the Karstarks had been w/ Stannis for 5 days by the time Theon and “Arya” escaped which is the same morning that Karstarks raven/map was received at Winterfell.

Notes:

The Unknown Village: Stannis is located in an unknown village next to a lake w/ an island. The Island has a godswood. The village is a Three day ride from Winterfell.

Tycho Nestori: Treats w/ stannis delivering information that the Karstarks plan treachery, he all also brings Theon and “Arya.” The Stannis and the Banker agree to terms and he prepares to return to the Wall. The fact that Tycho is w/ Stannis means 3 days have elapsed since Theon and “Arya” escaped at the end of aDwD.

Karstrak: Stannis learning of Arnolf’s treachery, has the Karstarks taken captive. Arnolf his son and grandsons are being held to face the Kings Justice. Stannis is told the Karstark men-at-arms claim to lack any knowledge of a plot, he is also told that the camp

Ser Massey: Stannis commands Massey to escort Tycho, “Arya” and Aly Mormont to the Wall, he is then to continue w/ Tycho across the Narrow Sea to raise an army of 20,000 sellswords. Preferably the Gold Company (oh the Irony). Stannis tells Massey that he may hear of Stannis’ untimely demise but that he is to carry on w/ his mission raising an army to place Shireen on the Iron Throne.

Asha: Asha meets w/ Stannis to plead mercy for her brother. Asking that if he must kill theon that he do it by his own sword at the godswood on the island of the lake next to the unknown village. The ravens concur.

The Northerners: Stannis indicates that the mountain clans wish to meet w/ him to discuss theon’s head and vengeance for their “precious Ned.” Stannis appears to be dismissive and contemptuous of them. They were last to get an audience w/ stannis and we don’t know if they ever do w/ the chapter ending w/ asha and the ravens.

Clayton Suggs: Suggs shows a good understanding of Northern heraldry for a southerner from flea bottom (p.223 aDwD).

Other Northern Houses

Glovers:

House Glover has refused to ally w/ the Boltons. They’re keeping their options open.

Robett Glover: is conspiring w/ Wyman Manderly and Davos Seaworth to locate Rickon Stark and Shaggydog believed to be in Skagos. Robett is last known to be in White Harbor teaching Wex to figure out more about Rickon and what happened to Winterfell.

Galbart Glover: is believed to be somewhere in the Neck searching for Greywater Watch and Howland Reed to deliver a message form Robb Stark. Maege Mormont is on a similar mission.

Lady Sybelle (Locke) Glover (Robett’s wife): has been reinstated as the Lady of Deepwood Motte, by Stannis who took it from Asha Greyjoy. She has sent “many” Glover men w/ Stannis according to her Wiki page. She also ransomed 6 Iron Born captives to the Braavosi banker Tycho Nestori.

Mormonts:

The Women of House Mormont, the She-Bears, remains fiercely loyal to the Starks.

Maege Mormont: is believed to be somewhere in the Neck searching for Greywater Watch and Howland Reed to deliver a message form Robb Stark. Galbart Glover is on a similar mission.

Alysane Mormont: Is currently w/ Stannis and is likely preparing to leave w/ “Arya” Ser Massey, Tycho Nestoi and their escort back to the Wall.

Tallharts:

The surviving Tallharts are being held captive at Torrhen’s Square by the Iron Born.

There are Tallharts in Winterfell among the Bolton host as well as w/ Stannis.

Cerwyns:

Jonella Cerwyn is the Lady Cerwyn following the death of her father Medger Cerwyn. Jon notes Lady Cerwyn’s signature accompanied Ramsay’s letter inviting Northern Lords to his wedding to “Arya.” (p.377 aDwD) There are Cerwyn men w/ Stannis and within Winterfell.

Hornwoods:

It is noted that Hornwood men are inside Winterfell. Though Hornwood men are now sworn to House Bolton it is also noted in the text that they are not likely to be loyal to the man who kidnapped, raped, forcibly married their liege Lady before locking her in a tower and starving her to death. There are Hornwood men w/ both the Boltons and Stannis.

Flints:

The Flints of Flint Fingers:

Theon notices (in the “The Prince of Winterfell”) the Banner of the House of Flint of Flint’s Fingers on the walls of Winterfell during the feast at winterfell after the wedding of Ramsay and “Arya.” There are no known members of this branch of the family.

The First Flints:

The First Flints are a mountain clan, according to Old Nan the Starks and First Flints are related. The First Flints are w/ Stannis.

The Flints of Widow’s Watch:

Lady Lyessa Flint wasn’t present at the Harvest fest (pregnancy) nor is there any sing of the Flints of Widow’s Watch at Winterfell. Robin Flint the grown son of Lyessa was killed in the RW as one of Robb’s bodyguards and he accompanied Catelyn when she met with Renly – suggesting a closeness to the Starks.

Reeds:

House Reed has been conspicuously absent. Meera and Jojen appeared at the Harvest Fest at Winterfell in aCoK and led Bran north to Bloodraven. Galber Glover and Maege Mormont were both sent by Robb to find Howland Reed at Greywater Watch. They both are traveling w/ documents from Robb believed to address his succession as King of the North and Jon’s legitimacy as a Stark. Little is known about the Reeds but they have remained largely on the sidelines during the War of Five Kings.

Thenn:

House Thenn is the creation of Jon Snon, formed out of the marriage of Alys Karstark (one of the most awesome characters in the entire series) and Signor the Magnar of Thenn. Signor has 200 Thenns, and 2 of Cregan Karstarks men who upon making it to Castle Black swore their fealty to Alys. Jon indicates to Cregan that Alys believes she can get Karhold to yield to her.

The Hooded Man

There are many theories swirling around about the identity the Hooded Man (“A Ghost in Winterfell” aDwD p.610-611).

Davos

The case for Davos:

He’s part of Manderly’s conspiracy. He could recognize Theon based on his clothing, and having lost some fingers it may explain why Theon willingly exposed something he otherwise hides form everyone. And if Davos is the hoodedman it might explain why he left Theon to Ramsay instead of killing him.

The case against Davos:

I don’t see Davos laughing at someone being tortured by Ramsay even someone like Theon. It would make more sense for Robett Glover to make the trip considering it’s winter and he’s a northerner and Davos isn’t.

Robett Glover

The case for Robett:

He’s part of Manderly’s plot. He knows the north and would be able to travel to Winterfell more easily than Davos.

The case against Robett:

He could likely send someone form Manderly’s court w/ out any need for all the secrecy. Hiding in the open would also reduce the risk of traveling clandestinely through the north in winter in essentially enemy territory.

Galbart Glover,

The case for Galbart

He’s been searching for Greywater watch for a long time. The fact that he’s unaccounted for seems to be the primary argument for his inclusion as a possible candidate.

The case against Galbart

It’s hard to believe Galbart wouldn’t kill Theon on the spot.

An Unknown Liddle

The case for Liddle

Bran, Hodor, and the Reeds came across a Liddle on their travels north. Not all all of the Liddles are w/ Stannis. A Liddle knowing that Theon hadn’t actually killed Bran might show him the mercy of leaving him to Ramsay instead of killing him on the spot.

Ryswell Scout

The case for a Ryswell scout

Roose Ryswell mentions the scouts keep going missing in the chapter in which the Hoodedman appears (“A Ghost in Winterfell”). A scout is more likely than most of the options to be admitted into Winterfell. Ryswells may have reason to plot treachery w/ the Umbers other Northern Lords.

Unknown Umber-man

The case for a unknown Umber-man

Mors is outside of Winterfell. Hother is inside Winterfell. It’s reasonable to assume that they are communicating in some way, an unknown person inside Winterfell might be the means of communication between the two Umbers. It also would explain why Theon’s description of the Hoodedman and Mors seem to be of two different people. And I picture Mors as a Tall man that’s at least a head taller than Theon thus they would come face to face. Therefore if the Hoodedman is an Umber I doubt it’s Mors himself.

Blackfish

The case for Blackfish

He’s related to the Starks via Cat and is still loyal to Robb. He escaped Riverrun. It’s plausible he might try and save his niece’s daughter from Ramsay.

The case against Blackfish

He’d kill theon on sight. It’s hard to see how see how he made all the way to Winterfell traveling through the Riverlands crawling w/ Lannisters and Freys, The Neck/Moat Calin held by the Iron Born or Boltons, and Barrowlands, Cerwyn lands and Stark lands all crawling w/ Boltons.

Raynald Westerling

The case for Raynald Westerling

He escaped the Red Wedding. Appeared to be loyal to Robb and Greywind. It’s plausible he would try and save Robb’s sister and exact some revenge on the Freys and Boltons.

The case against Raynald

Is the same as the case against Blackfish. If he traveled all that way for vengeance why let Theon live and how’s it even possible for him to have made the trek, injured as he was when he escaped the RW.

Benjen Stark

The case for Benjen Stark

He’s a Stark that’s not accounted for and who would be able to access any secret passage. I think that’s the only reason given.

The case against Benjen

Theon would not live if he were to pass in front of Benjen Stark. His vows and his being north of the Wall all cast doubt on his candidacy.

Alliser Thorne

The case for Alliser Thorne

He’s off ranging which means he could be anywhere, he hates Jon Snow and seems loyal to Lannisters therefore he could be meeting w/ Bolton to plot some treachery at the Wall.

The case against Alliser Thore

He’s beyond the Wall, his ranger brothers would presumably stop him if he were to head south. It’s hard to explain how he would have anyway of knowing what’s going on in Winterfell if he’s ranging.

The Pink Letter

Ramsay

The Case For:

Ramsay is the obvious first option, the letter appears to be from him. He has motive: Reek, “Arya.” He has the means: he’s in Winterfell w/ three maesters and bunch of ravens one must go to Castle Black. He also has the ability to access all the information referenced in the letter.

The Case Against:

Wasting time flaying 6 women and sending a letter announcing to entire realm that “Arya” has escaped instead of just hunting her down and capturing her doesn’t make much sense. It doesn’t seem like something Roose would allow, it’s an unnecessary admission and a waste of time. Roose would keep something like this quite not announce it to the realm. If Ramsay were the author/alive it would seem like a.) there would have been some sign of Ramsay pursuing them and there would have been some confirmation that Ramsay had actually left Winterfell as opposed to just Theon’s assumption that he would be coming for him and “Arya.” And b.) why would ramsay assume they could make it to Jon before he could capture them, he’s a good hunter and knows that it would take a long time to travel north form Winterfell to Castle Black during Winter. Again why waste the time and admit she’s gone?

Stannis

The Case For:

Motive: He needs back up. He has some ploy concocted w/ Mel for which the letter is a piece.

Means: he’d have to know about Mance, he’d have to have access to some ravens, hoping either the Karhold birds are trained to go to Castle Black or that the Night’s Watchmen who escorted Tycho have a bird w/ them.

The Case Against:

Many question his motive and if he would be as underhanded and deceptive w/ Jon Snow. There’s also the question of whether or not he has any ravens that would fly to Castle Black or if he knows about Mance and the Spearwives.

Mance and Northern Lords

The Case For: They have the Motive and the Means as I’ve argued elsewhere. See the Mance FTW thread: http://asoiaf.wester...2869-mance-ftw/, there is also a good case for the Northern Lords authoring the Pink Letter based on many of the same arguments but without Mance.

The Case Against:

It’s hard to believe the North would ally w/ Mance. The letter says the Mance is in a cage. Many doubt that Northern Lords would call on Jon Snow in such a manner. How he responds to the letter is pretty unpredictable and if they really wanted him to come on down they could have come up w/ something better than – “hey f-you bastard, wanna die? Meet my crazy demands or else.”

Nights Watch Conspiracy

The Case For:

There are clearly a number of “Sworn Brothers” who take their vows a little less seriously than others, they also happen to hate Jon Snow. They could have the knowledge of Mance and the spearwives and the means to carryout such a plot.

The Case Against:

The conspirators against Jon don’t really gain much. They already have plenty of proof that he’s letting wildlings through the Wall, and they don’t have anyway of predicting he would break his vows and run off to save his sister. And if they were going to go to the trouble of setting him up creating a legal pretext for his removal as Lord Commander and arrest/beheading for breaking his vows why stab him in the back?

[E-Ro]

Great job. Looks pretty good to me.

[RenlyIsNotRight]

Reeds:

House Reed has been conspicuously absent. Meera and Jojen appeared at the Harvest Fest at Winterfell in aCoK and led Bran north to Bloodraven. Galber Glover and Maege Mormont were both sent by Robb to find Howland Reed at Greywater Watch. They both are traveling w/ documents from Robb believed to address his succession as King of the North and Jon’s legitimacy as a Stark. Little is known about the Reeds but they have remained largely on the sidelines during the War of Five Kings.

I'm anticpating Howland Reed becomes the ace in the hole for Team Stannis. He has Galbart and Maege with him, both of whom have declared for Stannis, and we know based on the Moat Cailin chapter that he has no love for Roose or the Boltons in general. Not to mention there's some evidence to suggest that Manderly and Robett Glover have been in contact with Greywater Watch, I think he's big in on the conspiracy.

Great thread btw. My most anticipated storyline in TWoW is easily the Siege of Winterfell.

[Dornish Hen]

Thank you for such a thorough summary of where all the players are at the end of DWD! :bowdown:

If Roose blamed Ramsay for all the chaos at Winterfell, he might have Ramsay locked away and that's why he couldn't pursue Reek and "Arya". Maybe Ramsay snuck the letter out somehow. I don't think Roose would allow a letter with that information out of Winterfell. :dunno:

[Black Wolf Smith]

Wow, you did a lot of work. I am too tired right now to go over it all, but I will be back.

[King Jonboy]

No one would kill theon as it would draw too much attention, however much the hooded man may hate him

[Tagganaro]

Fantastic post. Will have more to talk about later. Great work, very comprehensive and well-researched.

Just wanted to make a correction: I'm pretty sure Jon is not using Longclaw/Valyrian Steel in the practice yard duel with Mance. Jon explicitly thinks "This fight would be going differently if I had Longclaw" or something along those lines. I believe he is using blunted tourney steel that was one of the last things Donal Noye forged.

[Tagganaro]

Another piece of speculation- As you said, I doubt Roose would let Ramsay write such a letter. There's not much sense to it, Roose is all about logical moves and would not allow this impulsive letter that could have no positive effect for the Boltons to be written. Which leads me to believe that Ramsay either sent this without Roose's knowledge (which strikes me as unlikely based on Roose having several inside men in Ramsay's inner circle and just his general intelligence level and diligence), or that Roose is somehow out of commission/injured/dead and Ramsay has taken control.

Don't really have much evidence supporting either one- Based on what we know about Mance (being a total badass and the most awesome character in Westeros), I doubt he'd go down without a fight and take several lords with him if it came to it. We know he was last seen playing singing for Roose, might be that Mance has done something to take Roose out of commission.

[Mother of Dragons]

“Arya Stark”

It is repeatedly noted that Arya Stark is key to the Bolton claim to Winterfell and the allegiance of the Northern Lords.

It’s know throughout Winterfell that “Arya” is being mistreated, Lady Dustin mentions that “Lady Arya’s sobs do us more harm than all of Stannis’ swords and spears” (“The Turncloak” aDwD p.545).

“Arya” has escaped and there is no longer a “Stark” in Winterfell.

Theon makes a huge issue about her eyes, and Arya is said to have looked the most like her father and thus the most like a Stark. There are numerous individuals that likely recognize “Arya” is a fake. Mance for one. In in aSoS he knew who Jon was because he attended the feast for King Robert. While Jon stood out for having made a bit of a fool of himself, and talking to Benjen Stark, he was not w/ the rest of the Stark children and he notes that he was on the opposite side of the hall away from the singer/musicians (i.e. Mance). “A singer was playing the high harp and reciting a ballad, but down at this end of the hall his voice could scarcely be heard above the roar of the fire, the clangor of pewter plates and cups, and the low mutter of a hundred drunken conversations.” (Jon 1 aGoT p.31)Thus even though Jon was isolated away from the other Starks and on the opposite side of the Great Hall, Mance still recognized who he was and remembered him nearly 2 years later (estimate based on the awesome timeline thread). The Cerwyns because of their proximity to Winterfell should recognize “Arya.” Theon also seems to think Lady Dustin knows “Arya” is a fake.

I think Mance would have recognized Arya for a fake. My logic stems from not only his remark to Jon in ASOS as recognizing him once, but for the second time when he was with Robb. Mance remembered the Stark children faces even after the long hiatus. He was probably staking out the family. He said he wanted to check out the King, and he would of seen the children when they were walking down the banquet hall arm in arm with the Lannister chitlins.

EDIT TO ADD: Not that it matters anymore, unless Mance told someone important about it.

I'm a latecomer to this conversation, so I'm sure it's already been covered, but the part that makes me believe that the lords know Arya is a fake is because of the quote above from Lady Dustin when she mentions how poorly Arya is being treated. There's no way these Northern bannermen who loved their Stark overlords so much, respected a family descended from a line of kings 8,000 years old, would sit back and allow the abuse of Ned's youngest daughter. No effing way. There's no way they'd of allowed the "real" Arya to get married and have her give her virginity to the Bolton Bastard, and subsequent sexual abuse. I don't see it. As bad as this sounds, I'm sure they're sitting back and letting the Boltons develop a false sense of security while letting them think they're onboard with this wedding.

EDIT TO ADD: they're sitting back and letting the Boltons think they're onboard with the wedding because it's not really Arya. They might not know it's Jeyne Pool, but they probalby figure it's some "girl of inconsequence" or not stepping in because for the greater good, it's better that the Boltons think they Northeners believe it's Arya vs. helping that poor girl they don't even know.

Can't wait to see (or read) the look on Bolton's face when he ends up getting flayed alive. You know something terrible is going to happen to him or to Ramsey, or both. Even though not everyone gets their just desserts in this series, the ones that do, get it BAD. Like Jaime lost his sword hand....Theon...as much as the readers hated him, after his ordeal in ADWD, I'd wager it would be hard to find anyone who DOESN'T feel sorry for the poor bastard. I have a feeling Martin is going to save the worse villains for the end and give them a really shocking ending.

I believe I remember reading in a SSM thing on the Citadel that Martin mentioned that sometimes he's afraid to kill off the villains because they may prove to be useful later. (??) I'm pretty sure I read that, but I'm not going to go searching for the quote. In any case, it makes me think of Pillars of the Earth. The bad guys got theirs, you just had to wait a hell of a long time till the end of the story to enjoy it. But boy, did they get it! I'm pretty sure Martin will give us some satisfaction on that front. I hope good old Roosey and Ramsey do receive such a horrible demise that I end up feeling sorry for them like I did for Theon. Now that would be gratifying in my book. Them and Cersei. I liked her walk of shame, but I'm still not satisfied with that. I WANT BLOOD!! :tantrum:

[The Sunset King]

Excellent and very comprehensive compilation of so much information.

The behavior of the hooded man seems too different from the methods of operation displayed by Davos and the Blackfish to be either of them. An Umber seems to be one of the more likely, although some of the scouts and other individuals mentioned from either houses also would fit well.

A large amount of events happened off-screen from the time that Stannis reached a position of a three days' march from terfell to the time at which the Pink Letter was delivered to the Night's Watch. Some of the issues as to what Ramsay's rationales might be for authoring the letter could perhaps be made explicable once these events are revealed through certain POVs in early TWOW. If Roose is dead at some point after Ramsay returned to Winterfell, there are a various possible scenarios which might have led to him penning this abomination.

Although other options are in the realm of possibility, each of the alternatives seem to face formidable obstacles that make them unlikely. Stannis seems to have some kind of complex ploy ready for his next few moves, however it seems improbable that as a result of certain reasons. One is that he appears to be expecting a battle very imminently, so if they came it would be more for breaking into Winterfell. Additionally, as noted, it seems highly questionable that Stannis would act so out of character by engaging in extensive impersonation and deception when communication with Jon.

It seems quite likely that the weirwood at the snowed-in village will play some kind of important role very early in the chain of events connected to the Battle of Ice.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

No one would kill theon as it would draw too much attention, however much the hooded man may hate him

I don't know. Ramsay's squire Little Walder Frey was killed, as was Ramsay's man Yellow Dick. Roose clearly thought it was possible that whoever was doing the killing around Winterfell might also kill Theon, hence his warning to theon at the end of the interrogation in the solar. I don't think it's Benjen Stark, but if it were there is no way he would let theon live. Theon sacked the castle he grew up in and is the reason it's in ruins. I think a number of people would kill Theon based simply on principle.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Just wanted to make a correction: I'm pretty sure Jon is not using Longclaw/Valyrian Steel in the practice yard duel with Mance. Jon explicitly thinks "This fight would be going differently if I had Longclaw" or something along those lines. I believe he is using blunted tourney steel that was one of the last things Donal Noye forged.

you're totally right. my bad.

Really good posts all around. Thanks for the feedback. After I read each post i'm all like "yeah that too."

[Ragnorak]

Here is a bit I posted in the Learning to Lead reread but it fits here. Primary point is that I suspect everyone in Winterfell knows Jeyne is a fake.

Alys Karstark

I think this tells us a tremendous amount about the North and the Winterfell wedding.

Jon is being presented with a fake Arya. The first thing he notices before even seeing her face is

But she was too old, far too old. This girl is almost of an age with me.

Then after he sees her face

She does look a bit like Arya, Jon thought. Starved and skinny, but her hair’s the same color, and her eyes.

“I was not sure you would remember. I was six the last time you saw me.”

This is a girl he saw once when he was six and he still recognizes her. He also notes her eyes which Theon is always fixating on with his fake Arya. Arya is one of the most desirable marriage opportunities in the North if not the most-- she looks and acts like Lyanna. Every visitor to Winterfell would note both Sansa and Arya's eye color as part of their assessment and musings of who Ned Stark's daughters might marry. This strikes me as Martin letting us know that everyone in Winterfell knows Jeyne is a fake.

“Good. I was afraid … I begged my father to leave one of my brothers as castellan, but none of them wished to miss the glory and ransoms to be won in the south. Now Torr and Edd are dead. Harry was a prisoner at Maidenpool when last we heard, but that was almost a year ago. He may be dead as well. I did not know where else to turn but to the last son of Eddard Stark.”

Alys knelt before him, clutching the black cloak. “You are my only hope, Lord Snow. In your father’s name, I beg you. Protect me.”

After reading you this you get a real sense of why Roose cuts out tongues to prevent people from running to Ned.

Alys runs to a bastard son of Ned Stark in the Nights Watch for protection instead of the King. This scenes implications for the Stark legacy in general and Ned's specifically are tremendous. She is kneeling before Jon, a gesture to a King, after choosing not to go to Stannis who is a King. While kneeling she is clutching a black cloak of the NW and pleads-- In your father’s name, I beg you. Protect me. This is the Great Northern Conspiracy in one neat package.

[Catacombs]

Nice post.

It gets me thinking that a ADWD has given us a gathering of POVs around Winterfell that is like a Northern equivalent of the the Meereenese knot. I don't think every POV that will end up there has been revealed to be near or on their way towards Winterfell--yet. I can think of a few more that could be part of a Winterfell knot.

I think that it is clear that House Reed is more involve than we know from the POVs to date. Robb told Galbert Glover and Maege Mormont how to be found by Greywater Watch and a lot of time and events have occurred since then. It is unlikely that Howland Reed never found them. But we don't know because we do not have a POV character in Greywater Watch. I think we will in WoW and that there are three likely candidates:

• Davos: I think it makes some sense that the Glovers are in contact with each other and that Greywater Watch would be the safest place for Rickon. And if Manderly and the North are involved in a conspiracy against Bolton, I cannot see how House Reed would not be involved. A Davos POV in Greywater watch seems possible.
  
• Jamie and/or Brienne: In one of the Jamie POVs in AFFC, a Frey mentions that Lady Stoneheart and her men disappeared into the bogs and speculated that she is being protected by the frog men. Where ever UnCat is in the next book, there we will find Jamie and Brienne. They could still be in the Riverlands killing Freys, but there are Freys in Winterfell. More than that there are Boltons--including Roose whom Cat saw kill Robb. When last we saw her she was fingering Robb's crown. I Could see how her her sense of vengeance might drive her North, bringing Jamie, Brienne and their POVs along with her.
  

Thanks for all the work to pull this together.

Cheers

[Lady Flandrensis]

Great work, thank you for the summary!

[Lightstar]

What if the hooded man is somehow Jamie? Would make sense for him to kill Freys in some effort to help the BwB. Jamie has no hand. He wouldn't kill Theon and might call him kinslayer at the request of stoneheart.

[Toccs]

There's no mention of the theory that the Hooded Man is actually Theon hallucinating his own alter ego.

The evidence for it being Theon's well established fragile psychological state.

His incidence of missing time, in which a scene in the great hall goes from breakfast to the evening meal in the same sentence.

The Hooded Man and Theon's extreme familiarity with each other. Example being Theon's lack of hestitation removing his gloves for the HM, whereas in the very next scene he is reluctant to show his hands to the Lords.

The Hooded Man calls Theon a kinslayer. Nobody considers Theon to be a part of the Stark family except for Theon himself, "he wanted to be one of them".

[redriver]

Great summary and the work that went in to it is appreciated.There are so many ingredients involved that make this the cliff hanger of all time.

[Scarlet Seastar]

What if the hooded man is somehow Jamie? Would make sense for him to kill Freys in some effort to help the BwB. Jamie has no hand. He wouldn't kill Theon and might call him kinslayer at the request of stoneheart.

I think that there is only one way Jaime would work for UnCat, and that's if UnCat threatens to kill Brienne. I think it would add a twist not just to the story, but to the relationship/friendship Brienne and Jaime seemed to have developed.

My point is, it would bring many people together-if we're putting all of it into one basket, the Blackfish could be with her, and if the frog men are protecting her than we have been joined by Howland Reed, and if it's really true that Manderly and Glover are working not alone but with him, we have a large number of characters put in almost the same position. Which is why I think it's highly unlikely.

However, Brienne chose to kill Jaime to save Pod. I think she would feel pretty miserable if Jaime accepts a dangerous task just to save her life.

On another note, the Hooded Man cannot be Theon because it's too much cliche, imho. The Hooded Man could also be a perfect opportunity for GRRM to slip an important character under our noses without us realizing it.

[FittleLinger]

There's no mention of the theory that the Hooded Man is actually Theon hallucinating his own alter ego.

The evidence for it being Theon's well established fragile psychological state.

His incidence of missing time, in which a scene in the great hall goes from breakfast to the evening meal in the same sentence.

The Hooded Man and Theon's extreme familiarity with each other. Example being Theon's lack of hestitation removing his gloves for the HM, whereas in the very next scene he is reluctant to show his hands to the Lords.

The Hooded Man calls Theon a kinslayer. Nobody considers Theon to be a part of the Stark family except for Theon himself, "he wanted to be one of them".

Yes, this is one of the popular ones and deserves to be added. I don't like it though, I don't think it's Martin's style. He always indicates or even says straight away when someone is having a schizo-moment IMO.