Meereenese Blot discussion of Dany and Jon, Part II (Concluding Jon essay up)

[Adam Feldman]

Here is my concluding Jon essay, in which I ask how Jon will deal with the fallout at the Wall, what his apparent newfound trust in Melisandre's sorcery and prophecy means, and whether Ghost's consciousness could potentially affect Jon's own if he has a prolonged stay there. Thank you all for reading!

[Jerry Drake]

Expanding the thought that Jon's ultimate goal as a Lord Commander is that the Others are no longer a threat, isn't it safe to think that his efforts to get as much wildlings, giants, mammoths south of the Wall is the mirror tactic of armies torching the Riverlands to starve the opponents. Wights being the "arrow fodder" of the White Walkers, I think that by getting as much people safe down south potentially reduces the amount of 'recruits' the Others can muster for their attack on the Wall. I don't think that Jon ever mentions or hints at this as the reason for his actions.

By same token, getting 'Arya' safe from Ramsay's grasp is similar to the idea above. He does call him "creature" at one point in the Shieldhall speech. Still, this doesn't affect the legallity (or lack of it) of his actions and bad judgement in not thinking through (or at all) what kind of reaction he can force from his enemies. His bad judgement goes back even more back in gradually sending away all of his friends away from him, to various outposts, leaving himself almost completely alone and eventually at the mercy of the conspirators.

But then again, this too can be reflection of Danaery's arc where at first reading her actions seemed erroneous as well.

Anyway, excellent blog, I enjoyed reading it.

[Jô Maltese]

(...)

I don't think that Jon ever mentions or hints at this as the reason for his actions.

(...)

Yes he does:

[Jon to Bowen Marsh, re Hardhome] Are you so blind, or is it that you do not wish to see? What do you think will happen when all these enemies are dead? (...) The dead will rise again, in their hundred and their thousands (...) and they will come for us.

It's Jon's lack of psychology / pedagogy / interaction skills toward Marsh (and other key subordinates) rather than his strategic judgement that lets him down. The opposite of Dany in a way.

[Mithras]

“He is not you. He made his vows and means to live by them. The Night’s Watch takes no part.”

This quote is very important. Both Stannis and Mel was seeing Jon as an unyielding man of the NW, who will keep his oath until the bitter end. There are other quotes too (like each time he refused the offer of Stannis about Winterfell).

"I could give you guides.”

“Could?” Stannis missed little. “Or will?

Here we learn how careful Stannis is. That will be important when he questiones Theon about "Abel" and the women he brought. Abel does not wear glamor anymore so his description is the same as Mance. Theon will recall at least one of the women that came with him was a wildling raider.

Theon glanced at Squirrel. They are almost of a size. It might work. “And how does Squirrel get out?”

Squirrel answered for herself. “Out a window, and straight down to the godswood. I was twelve the first time my brother took me raiding south o’ your Wall. That’s where I got my name. My brother said I looked like a squirrel running up a tree. I’ve done that Wall six times since, over and back again. I think I can climb down some stone tower.”

Stannis never heard the inner thoughts of Jon as we do. So this is how Stannis will learn that Mance was sent to a mission with spearwives to save Arya and Jon is not the oathkeeper he seems to be. I think this point is very critical.

Jon was also fighting his nature as a wolf. Among the "Stark" children, we have numerous quotes for Jon and Robb saying "I am not a wolf". Arya and Bran on the other hand say "I am a wolf" quite often. I think this point is also very important. Jon is fighting his nature. He is heavily influenced by the insults to him although he tries to hide it. These are the ones I can find and I feel like the list is not complete.

Thorne staggered back, rubbing the marks Jon’s fingers had left on his neck. “You see for yourselves, brothers. The boy is a wildling.”

Boy was not the worst of the things that Jon Snow had been called since being chosen lord commander.

The king was unmoved. “I have knights and lords in my service, scions of noble Houses old in honor. They cannot be expected to serve under poachers, peasants, and murderers.”

Or bastards, Sire?

“Some of your own Sworn Brothers would have me believe that you are half a wildling yourself. Is it true?”

“I am no lord, sire.” Jon rose. “I know what you have heard. That I am a turncloak, and craven.

“What everyone knows is that Ser Alliser is a knight from a noble line, and trueborn, while I’m the bastard who killed Qhorin Halfhand and bedded with a spearwife. The warg, I’ve heard them call me. How can I be a warg without a wolf, I ask you?”

“Greyguard’s a good place for the likes of you, I’m thinking. Well away from decent godly folk. The mark of the beast is on you, bastard.”

Marsh hesitated. “Lord Snow, I am not one to bear tales, but there has been talk that you are becoming too … too friendly with Lord Stannis. Some even suggest that you are … a …”

A rebel and a turncloak, aye, and a bastard and a warg as well. Janos Slynt might be gone, but his lies lingered.

Mully cleared his throat. “M’lord? The wildling princess, letting her go, the men may say—”

“—that I am half a wildling myself, a turncloak who means to sell the realm to our raiders, cannibals, and giants.”

I am not the trusting fool you take me for … nor am I half wildling, no matter what you believe.

“These are godless savages,” said Septon Cellador. “Even in the south the treachery of wildlings is renowned.”

“It’s us that keeps you safe, the black crows you despise.”

“So the bastard boy sends me out to die.”

“The bastard boy is sending you out to range.”

“I see what you are, Snow. Half a wolf and half a wildling, baseborn get of a traitor and a whore. You would deliver a highborn maid to the bed of some stinking savage. Did you sample her yourself first?” He laughed. “If you mean to kill me, do it and be damned for a kinslayer. Stark and Karstark are one blood.”

“My name is Snow.”

“Bastard.”

“Guilty. Of that, at least.”

I think these insults are effecting his decision making.

[Jerry Drake]

Yes he does:

It's Jon's lack of psychology / pedagogy / interaction skills toward Marsh (and other key subordinates) rather than his strategic judgement that lets him down. The opposite of Dany in a way.

My bad.

[Clariana]

To Adam:

I love your essays, I've downloaded them on my Kindle to read before now. I particularly liked your essays on the Mereense knot where you basically highlightrd the themes on the nature of power and rulers that they introduced, they shed a good light on what has been a very unfavourably reviewed part of the novels.

All I can say is... More please!

[Mark Antony]

Saw that the westeros.org Facebook posted that GRRM stamped his approval on the Mereen essays. Well done Adam :cheers:

[Lady Darry]

https://twitter.com/westerosorg/status/614443544300912641

Elio (on reddit):

No, but he (GRRM) referred very specifically to the Meereenese Blot website and the knot essays. He said he was told about them, read them, and was very pleased that someone was able to get his difficulties and his intentions perfectly.

[Kyrion]

Oh, the Schadenfreude is strong in me over the various Dany fans thought the peace was never real and that the Meereenese were just dicks plotting betrayal heh heh...

[SeanF]

If Adam Feldman has unravelled everything correctly, then:-

1. The peace (with the Harpy at least) was real.

2. The Shavepate poisoned the locusts.

3. Daenerys will be set on a more dark and ruthless path in TWOW.

4. Barristan is being manipulated by the Shavepate, like Ned Stark was manipulated by LF.

[SeanF]

Oh, the Schadenfreude is strong in me over the various Dany fans thought the peace was never real and that the Meereenese were just dicks plotting betrayal heh heh...

My view is that the Slavers are not a monolith. Ideally, the Sons of the Harpy want Daenerys dead, or gone, and slavery reinstituted. But, they'll settle for the Great Masters retaining their vast wealth and influence, and for one of their number being married to Dany. The intelligent ones know very well that if the Slaver Coalition took the city by storm, they'd suffer as well.

Some of the Yunkish lords will settle for Dany ruling Meereen, provided they receive reparations, and slavery continues at Yunkai and Astapor. Others wish to destroy her. The peace party just about has the upper hand until Danzakh's pit. At the same time, mercenaries like Bloodbeard would like nothing more than to sack the city and enslave the inhabitants. Some of the Yunkish and other contingents would no doubt also be happy to destroy the city, and finish off a commercial rival.

Finally, there's the invasion from Volantis. The Ghiscari turned to them in desperation, but some of them must be nervous about the regional superpower sending an army to Slavers Bay that decides to stay. The Volantenes are clear that Dany is an existential threat who must be destroyed.

[Lady Darry]

If Adam Feldman has unravelled everything correctly, then:-

3. Daenerys will be set on a more dark and ruthless path in TWOW.

I think he did a great job showing us Dany's internal struggle, how much she sacrificed for peace and how much she wanted do the right thing for Meereen. And how her turn to a more ruthless path will come organically and in character. Some say this is a sign Dany will become a mad queen or a destructive villain or something like that. But she needs to be dark and ruthless for Westeros invasion, war with Others etc. She needs to be more Tywin or Aegon I and less Dany form AGOT. But I am afraid that at the end of the series, fans will see her as a villain number 1 (ok, maybe Others will take number 1). Tywin can get away with being ruthless, but not her.

[SeanF]

I think he did a great job showing us Dany's internal struggle, how much she sacrificed for peace and how much she wanted do the right thing for Meereen. And how her turn to a more ruthless path will come organically and in character. Some say this is a sign Dany will become a mad queen or a destructive villain or something like that. But she needs to be dark and ruthless for Westeros invasion, war with Others etc. She needs to be more Tywin or Aegon I and less Dany form AGOT. But I am afraid that at the end of the series, fans will see her as a villain number 1 (ok, maybe Others will take number 1). Tywin can get away with being ruthless, but not her.

What Martin shows is that while war has plenty of horrors, peace can result in injustice. A peace that allows the Great Masters to pay their former slaves a pittance and lets the Yunkish reinstate slavery is one that sticks in Dany's throat. Is such a peace better than war? Martin leaves it for us to decide.

[bemused]

I agree with SeanF, above..but as to Feldman's conclusions.. hold it.. I beg to differ..

To say that he's pleased someone "got" his (GRRM's) difficulties and intentions is absolutely not the same thing as saying that Feldman's interpretations of the story and all the characters' motivations are correct.

I detect another cagey answer.

[SeanF]

I agree with SeanF, above..but as to Feldman's conclusions.. hold it.. I beg to differ..

To say that he's pleased someone "got" his (GRRM's) difficulties and intentions is absolutely not the same thing as saying that Feldman's interpretations of the story and all the characters' motivations are correct.

I detect another cagey answer.

I read it as Martin endorsing Feldman.

[Lady Darry]

What Martin shows is that while war has plenty of horrors, peace can result in injustice. A peace that allows the Great Masters to pay their former slaves a pittance and lets the Yunkish reinstate slavery is one that sticks in Dany's throat. Is such a peace better than war? Martin leaves it for us to decide.

One of Feldman's conclusion was:

But now she wants to go to Westeros. And that’s particularly interesting because, so far in the series, Dany’s violent methods and ignoble tactics have often been palatable to the reader because they were used against brutal and murderous slavers, for seemingly noble ends. But there are no slaves to free in Westeros. It seems that Martin started off by giving Dany a seeming moral justification for her violence, that he always later planned to undercut. Now, Dany’s in it for herself — for her own power, for her own throne, and for becoming who she’s made to be, and woe to anyone who gets in her way.

This is the tragedy of Dany. She achieved peace. And then she decided war felt better to her.

I definitely think she is going to do, and be pushed to do, some very dark things, once she lands in Westeros (“everywhere the dragons danced, the people died”). That’s not necessarily the end of her story, though.

Which indicates a very violent, destructive path. And while it will make sense in SB, it will be perceived differently in Westeros. Especially if Aegon conquers 7K and restores peace to same extend and then she comes with dothraki (who are bound to rape and pillage) and starts Dance of the Dragons 2.0. She will as Feldman said started with 'morally justifiable' wars but will end with “everywhere the dragons danced, the people died” (but then perhaps Others will attack, and she will lead a charge against them, so she will actually end with an justifiable war).

I am a huge Dany fan, but I am starting to think that GRRM will write her in a negative way (and perhaps finished her story arc in ADOS in a positive way). She already has the largest hate club and this will make everything even worse. I don't think GRRM intended her to be hated so much. But if he did, then I feel cheated.

[Lady Darry]

To say that he's pleased someone "got" his (GRRM's) difficulties and intentions is absolutely not the same thing as saying that Feldman's interpretations of the story and all the characters' motivations are correct.

Another comment form Elio: http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3b75fu/spoilers_all_grrm_on_the_meereenese_knot/csjwr7m?context=3

Yes, I think it was clear from George that be meant that you clearly understood why the Knot was so difficult for him but at the same time you understood what he was trying to say in the narrative. He was bit commenting on plot, but father the characters and themes.

[Dofs]

If Adam Feldman has unravelled everything correctly, then:-

1. The peace (with the Harpy at least) was real.

2. The Shavepate poisoned the locusts.

3. Daenerys will be set on a more dark and ruthless path in TWOW.

4. Barristan is being manipulated by the Shavepate, like Ned Stark was manipulated by LF.

I am really fond of the Sahvepate theory. I myself noticed that some things Shavepate was saying to Barristan were really misleading and manipulative and that he is probably a huge power hungry cunning liar. It was nice to see someone expand on that and it is, again, nice to hear that Martin kinda (we don't know for sure) confirmed it. As much as I hated Dany's chapters in Meereen, once Skahaz came into the picture I started to really like Meereenese plotline. And if Skahaz is really the guy I think he is, than I am looking forward to Meereen a lot in WoW.

[Fire Eater]

I liked your essays, and I found myself in agreement with the Skahaz plot. I agreed with your bit on the Martells except about future predictions in the last with the exception of Arianne marrying Aegon and a bloody battle at the Water Gardens.

Here is where I disagreed:

1. Dany telling the GG about not killing the hostages was a politically stupid move. She ended up undoing her endgame with the Harpy by telling the Harpy to her face the hostages were a bluff. The GG might have been reluctant to make another move given she could risk members of the Great Masters ratting her out out of fear for their kids' lives. That is without mentioning that she would be putting the lives of her niece and nephew at stake. On top of that, the Harpy's actions didn't bring Dany's downfall any closer, so for the Great Masters it would be a big sacrifice for a very small gains. Of course, to be fair Dany doesn't know the GG is the Harpy, but still following what Doran once told Arianne about why he kept her marriage confidential, who would have the GG confided in with this info and who would they confide in? The news would eventually reach the Harpy.

2.

Could his sister truly have escaped such captors? How would she do that? Arya was always quick and clever, but in the end she's just a little girl, and Roose Bolton is not the sort who would be careless with such a prize of great worth.

Jon didn't send Mance to WF, Melisandre did. Jon thought Mance was just picking Arya up along the kingsroad after she escaped the Boltons by herself. As for his decision to deal with Ramsay, he had not other choice. He didn't have Theon and "Arya" so he couldn't meet Ramsay's demands even if he wanted to. If he ignored the letter, Ramsay would eventually come to Castle Black, and endanger everyone there. Who knows how many people Ramsay would have sent to the grave with Jon? Fighting Ramsay was the only option. Any competent general would tell Jon not to wait for the Boltons to come to Castle Black, which has no defenses to the south, but to bring the battle to them.

3.

Indeed, I would go so far as to speculate that he agrees with the Green Grace in Barristan’s final chapter. As she desperately begs Barristan to restore the peace by freeing Hizdahr, she tells him that the decision to discard peace is a tragedy, because:

“In return he gave her peace. Do not cast it away, ser, I beg you. Peace is the pearl beyond price.”

The problem with the quote from ADwD to argue your case is that they're coming from the mouth of someone who publicly called for peace, but privately, it was just a cover for a guerrilla war against Daenerys and former slaves.

4. Marsh's attack on Jon wasn't spontaneous, but planned. In the two meetings Marsh had in Jon's quarters, he refused hospitality from Jon. In the last meeting, he didn't even touch the wine Jon gave him. Marsh's complaint wasn't Jon's neutrality, but from his own words "being on the wrong side." Marsh didn't try to assassinate Jon earlier, because he never got the chance, and he needed to do it without risking being caught.

[teej6]

One of Feldman's conclusion was:

Which indicates a very violent, destructive path. And while it will make sense in SB, it will be perceived differently in Westeros. Especially if Aegon conquers 7K and restores peace to same extend and then she comes with dothraki (who are bound to rape and pillage) and starts Dance of the Dragons 2.0. She will as Feldman said started with 'morally justifiable' wars but will end with everywhere the dragons danced, the people died (but then perhaps Others will attack, and she will lead a charge against them, so she will actually end with an justifiable war).

I am a huge Dany fan, but I am starting to think that GRRM will write her in a negative way (and perhaps finished her story arc in ADOS in a positive way). She already has the largest hate club and this will make everything even worse. I don't think GRRM intended her to be hated so much. But if he did, then I feel cheated.

I don't think GRRM writes his characters with the mindset that his readers will hate them or love them. He always quotes Faulkner's "The only thing worth writing about is the human heart in conflict with itself," implying he wants readers to understand why people make the choices they do and what those choices eventually costs them.

So Dany turning darker and all fire and blood will be a consequence of her prior experiences and decisions as well as her inherent nature. And I don't see how anyone could think that Westeros (nobility and commoners alike) would see her initially as a saviour, considering her army of Dothraki, sellswords, unsullied, and plunderring Greyjoys (Victarion/Euron will join forces with her). Judging from the Arianne chapter in WoW, I doubt Dorne will back her either. And it's not like people in Westeros tell their kids bedtime stories about dragons being magnificient and noble creatures. Dany's dragons will cause destruction and devastation in Westeros. Dany, I feel will go all fire and blood on all her opposition in Westeros initially and might eventually (in ADOS) come to realize that she has become what she most feared. GRRM may then end up giving her a glorious end by saving humanity as we all know how much he likes redemption arcs.