Middle East and North Africa 17, where everything is what it seems

[Darzin]

Perhaps not treating Palestinians as subhumans in the build up to the conflict would have been a solution?

Oh no disagreement there if their conduct towards the Palestinians was less appalling and they actually gave some concessions then their could be peace.

Mr. Fixit the fact that one sides weapons suck excuses nothing. Hamas is firing these rockets at civilians. If they are ineffective so what the intent is still there. Also Hamas could stop firing them and there goes the Israeli excuse for war.

[Shryke]

Oh no disagreement there if their conduct towards the Palestinians was less appalling and they actually gave some concessions then their could be peace.

Mr. Fixit the fact that one sides weapons suck excuses nothing. Hamas is firing these rockets at civilians. If they are ineffective so what the intent is still there. Also Hamas could stop firing them and there goes the Israeli excuse for war.

Please. Look at what happened to the West Bank.

[The Reckoner]

I'd lay the blame for the casualties at Ham Ass's doorstep. They knew that they would trigger the IDF, and frankly given that we are on a forum where many, myself included, are self-identified Social Justice Warriors and SJ Advocates, I find it hard to accept that so many would be callously ignorant toward Israel's triggers. Especially since Ham's Ass didn't include a Trigger Warning.

[Darzin]

Please. Look at what happened to the West Bank.

Well yeah the Israeli government are hypocrites who knew? I'm not defending Israel from everything else they've done I'm just saying the have the right to respond to an attack on their country the same as everyone else. But the missiles don't do much of anything anyway, and if they did would that be better? Their fired at civilians after all. So what is the point of Hamas firing them? Nothing except a need to do something.

[Guest]

Leaked cables show Bibi's Iran bomb claim was directly contradicted by his own intelligence agency.

I don't get exactly what Bibi's deal is.

He wants everyone to believe that he is the defender of Israel against an existential threat from a Persian bomb. Maybe. I'm sure Livni doesn't want Iran to get the bomb either, but when you hear Mossad doesn't even think it's anywhere near as threatening as Bibi says, it makes you wonder.

What are some alternative hypotheses?

-he's a power-hungry prick, hence his close association with Republicans in the US

-he's a politician who has perhaps miscalculated who thinks the cause of Greater Israel, both with the settlements and anti-Iranian rhetoric, is his raison d'etre

(these two potentially cross over a bit)

-he's delusional and is harboring some serious apocalyptic visions

-he's stared into the abyss too long and has been convinced by his GOP friends to try to stick it to Obama because

Any others?

[Mr Fixit]

Bibi's whole political idea amounts to finally forming Greater Israel with West Bank firmly in its borders and Palestinians driven away by any means necessary. In order to accomplish that with some kind of international support, he has to paint Iran, Syria and others as eternal bogymen that are going to DESTROY THE WORLD!!1!11! unless stopped, preferably by a strong Israel as a bulwark of civilization. As that pretty closely aligns with the larger Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East as well Western strategic interests in the region, Israel is allowed to do more or less what it wants.

In the same vein, you get these silly rationalizations about "defense" where it's appropriate to kill 1,200 children because Palestinians kill something like a zillion time less Israelis than die in car crashes every year. For example, in 2012 if you count West Bank, 290 people died in traffic-related accidents. That same year, Palestinians killed people in the single digits.

Let's not even count the number of Palestinians who die every year (that aren't included in statistics) because of the inability to receive medical aid because of roadblocks and the like. There are hundreds of horror stories of pregnant women giving birth in cars or sick dying by the road though medical facilities are only miles away because Israeli forces wouldn't let anyone pass their countless checkpoints for hours upon hours for no reason at all. And that has been going on for almost 50 years now.

[The Iceman of the North]

Well yeah the Israeli government are hypocrites who knew? I'm not defending Israel from everything else they've done I'm just saying the have the right to respond to an attack on their country the same as everyone else. But the missiles don't do much of anything anyway, and if they did would that be better? Their fired at civilians after all. So what is the point of Hamas firing them? Nothing except a need to do something.

You keep forgetting what happened in the months before the war. The IDF was on a rampage in the West Bank, blowing up random buildings. There were a lot of internal pressure on the Palestinian leadership to do something, they just didn't have that many options as far as response goes. In the West Bank the authorities is totally impotent faced with the IDF, while in Gaza, all they had was their missiles.

[Biglose]

@Triskan

I think neither.

Just make a thought experiment. What would have happend if the Shah would have stayed in power.

Where would Iran be today?

Look, the only female winner of the equivalent of the math nobel price is from iran. (Add the gender oppression in Iran into the equation and you know how great their potential for science and progress is. In case you do not own a history book. If you do, just read about the persian empire)

Now imagin this country not be hold back on sanctions (and in addition also not be religious fanatics).

It probably would have turned out like "Germany with oil" (and I am talking 90ies here not somewhere 2020, the past).

Even lifting the sanctions would be a major relief.

And thats what the israeli right is afraid of. Iran is not an ally of israel. It sponsors a lot of actors who are in a direct conflict with Israel.

Imagine a german like industry and economy without the idiocracy which is the general german leadership (last 20 years) (wasting resources on sensles projects showing no sign of thinking ahead).

Thats a threat, and a big one at that.

With or without nuclear weapons.

Your way of rationalizing is way off from my point of view. (I guess partisan affiliation has something to do with it)

If you look at Bibis entire political career and all calls he made in his time as prime minister, you realize one thing:

He is cautious. He waits until he can't wait anymore, he goes back and forth until he has to move. (I guess the only politician who could match him at that would be Merkel)

Your analysis would paint him as an proactive guy. "Taking the fight to them". He is definitly not (I do not mean that in a negative way. Like in a fight Netanyahu would probably wait for the other guy to throw the first punsh. It is a risk but if you are confident in your abilities it can help you big. A striktly reaktive bush might have gotten the world involved in Afghanistan but never in Iraq. So a curse or a blessing...It depends...). Yeah, people can change, but they can't change their core. It is not about cowardice (this can change a coward can become couragous), he is a guy who wants to know what he is doing.

The other point is, things are shifting in the middle east and in general. The problem with shifts in the middle east for israel should be obvious.But I guess it has also something to do with the fact that support for israel is becoming a Republican issue (and no, it is not because of Obama(who is also not a muslim ploting against israel). It is a development which is ongoing since Carter. (Or maybe even longer)

So in general I think he made this call because (like with all other calls he has made in the past) he probably did not have much of a choice left.

So my guess is his play is to prevent an Iran with nuclear weapons (or with enought conventional means to become a thread to israel).

Thats what I am sure of.

Less certain am I with the idea, that it might also aim at denying democrats the ability to drop israel without a sound. And make it clear to them.

[aceluby]

Well yeah the Israeli government are hypocrites who knew? I'm not defending Israel from everything else they've done I'm just saying the have the right to respond to an attack on their country the same as everyone else. But the missiles don't do much of anything anyway, and if they did would that be better? Their fired at civilians after all. So what is the point of Hamas firing them? Nothing except a need to do something.

Why does Israel get to respond to an attack on their country, but Palestine does not? Or is your argument that Israel isn't 'attacking' when they force people out of their homes at gunpoint?

[Samalander]

Oh no disagreement there if their conduct towards the Palestinians was less appalling and they actually gave some concessions then their could be peace.

Mr. Fixit the fact that one sides weapons suck excuses nothing. Hamas is firing these rockets at civilians. If they are ineffective so what the intent is still there. Also Hamas could stop firing them and there goes the Israeli excuse for war.

The Hamas rockets are very effective. It's just that Iron Dome is more effective.

[Suttree]

The Hamas rockets are very effective. It's just that Iron Dome is more effective.

Uhhhmm no.

Israel’s claims about the anti-rocket shield’s effectiveness, specifically that it is able to intercept 90 percent of the rockets that Hamas has sent into Israel, are tantamount to fraud according to MIT science, technology and national security expert Ted Postol....

His paper shows that given low engagement rate, low warheard destruction rate and issues of missing data, the actual success rate for the Dome falls much closer to a miserable 5 percent.

It's a combination of Israel's solid civil defense effort(shelters, early warning systems) and how ineffective Hamas rockets are.

[Fez]

Why does Israel get to respond to an attack on their country, but Palestine does not? Or is your argument that Israel isn't 'attacking' when they force people out of their homes at gunpoint?

Palestine isn't a country and Israel's agreements with the PA gives them authority to conduct military and police actions in the West Bank.

Look, Israel's been incredibly shitty and shortsighted about this whole situation for at least two decades and are responsible for a lot (though not nearly all) of the causes behind the continued conflict. However, that does not negate their right to self-defense.

[Shryke]

Palestine isn't a country and Israel's agreements with the PA gives them authority to conduct military and police actions in the West Bank.

Look, Israel's been incredibly shitty and shortsighted about this whole situation for at least two decades and are responsible for a lot (though not nearly all) of the causes behind the continued conflict. However, that does not negate their right to self-defense.

What is it then?

If it's not a country, how do they have a right to self-defence against it?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Shryke,

By that logic the US was wrong to hit back at Al Queda after 9/11. Does statehood really matter with regard to a nation-state acting in self defense?

[Shryke]

Shryke,

By that logic the US was wrong to hit back at Al Queda after 9/11. Does statehood really matter with regard to a nation-state acting in self defense?

That depends on what Palestine is if it's not a country?

Does the US get to bomb Oklahoma because McVeigh blew up a government building?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Interesting. Is Gaza part of Israel in the same way Oklahoma is? Collective punishment is poor any way you slice it but warfare against a hostile State is generally prosecuted collectively.

[aceluby]

Shryke,

By that logic the US was wrong to hit back at Al Queda after 9/11. Does statehood really matter with regard to a nation-state acting in self defense?

You mean when we invaded a country and killed thousands of people that had nothing to do with it? Probably not the best example.

[Shryke]

Interesting. Is Gaza part of Israel in the same way Oklahoma is? Collective punishment is poor any way you slice it but warfare against a hostile State is generally prosecuted collectively.

Is it? Fez claims it's not a foreign country, so what is it?

If it's an occupied territory, well, collective punishment would be most definitely frowned upon.

[Clueless Northman]

I'd lay the blame for the casualties at Ham Ass's doorstep. They knew that they would trigger the IDF, and frankly given that we are on a forum where many, myself included, are self-identified Social Justice Warriors and SJ Advocates, I find it hard to accept that so many would be callously ignorant toward Israel's triggers. Especially since Ham's Ass didn't include a Trigger Warning.

That might not have been the official goal of the Hamas leadership at that moment, but obviously some people, more radical, wanted this exact outcome, because having IDF invading and killing civilians would radicalize even more Gaza population. There are some cases where attacks and terrorism aim to provoke the other side to overreact and come mess the place up as a big recruitment tool of extremists.

Of course, not reacting at all might not be a better reply, but at least be smart when countering that kind of threats and attacks.

[Arakan]

Israel is simply a scapegoat for all the bad things happening to "poor Arabs" (be aware of sarcasm). Of course without Israel, the Middle East in general and Palestine in particular would be the land of milk and honey. And the Israeli right is too stupid to realize that they are always always falling for the same trick, doing exactly what Hamas or PLO (first Intifada) want them to do.

Israel is most of the time governed by idiots nowadays, unfortunately.

Of course, Palestine would not be the land of milk and honey. Logic reasoning dictates it would be (with probability > 50%) just another ME state and to see how well that works, one just has to take a look around.

If Israel one day gets smart again, do the following:

1) give Palestine political and Economics independence

2) treat them with full diplomatic respect (like souvereign countries should treat each other)

3) relax and wait

4) see Palestine self-destruct like so many many ME countries or develop into brutal dictatorship...

5) show all those Western SJW hippsters the Middle Finger

Feel free to bash me but the reality is that with few exceptions none of the Arab states work. Unfortunately, the Persians or Turks always get into the the mix. But not the Middle East per se is the problem...

Of course some SJW hippsters will come now and tell me that I have no clue and it's all the fault of the West...Crusades, Britain, France, USA, Sovet Union, capitalism, communism, oil, Seven Sisters, CIA, KGB...bla bla bla

You know what's the difference between successfull people and losers? dont start problem-solving by blaming others but by looking at one's own mistakes and faults. But this is hard and painful. Blaming others is much easier...

The same logic btw applies fairly well for countries as well.

But hey, stupid me, of course all the miseries are the fault of the West due to, you know, crusades and such.