Update on the "Winds"

[Nerevanin]

I'm disappointed 

If it would be released before the show finishes, I'd wait, but does not seem the case. If I don't watch it I would spoiled by the media. Damn.

 

The biggest dilemma tbh. I eventually decided to watch the show and to force myself to think after each episode that the plot in the show has nothing to do with the book. Before season 5 I thought that I'd be okay because local medias didn't seem much interested in GOT but then, as season 5 was progressing, articles about Sansa's wedding night, Jon's ambiguous end, Cersei's walk of shame and other things started to pop up in local medias as well! I'd rather have the story spoiled by myself than by stupid articles...

[ssls6]

A Dance With Dragons is much slower then what you have.  He had a lot of the book written when he released AFFC.

That's ominous

[Littlefinger of the Hand]

I am actually surprised that so many people here look surprised!!! 

 

And guys don't quit internet because of the show  . No one is supposed to read the books unspoiled. The show is now so much more profitable that it is the heart of the story, not the books. Maybe wow will write " based on HBO tv show a game of thrones "  

 

Not to mention that the two of them have taken a different turn. Mark my words. The story will have two completely different endings. One for the show, one for the books.

[rondo has three heads]

 

Not to mention that the two of them have taken a different turn. Mark my words. The story will have two completely different endings. One for the show, one for the books.

A lot of people, George himself, say this. But let's be real... if a person were to watch S6 (and possibly S7) and then sit down to read TWOW, there are going to be countless occasions where a scene in the book begins, and the reader will immediately think "Oh yeah I remember this scene." Maybe some different dialog, but it's basically the same.

And I know some people don't mind spoilers, but I despise them. I managed to go the last few years without hearing a single bit of news or seeing any of the trailers/commercials for new Star Wars. That's just how I am, I like going in fresh. Watching a 10+ hour adaptation of a book before reading it, however divergent the two may be, is just not palatable. 

As for the news on TWOW, I'm not surprised, and not all that disappointed. I considered summer 2016 very optimistic and Christmas 2016 pretty reasonable, but not a definite. That seems to be right where we are at.

[sperry]

Well, that's really disappointing. Thought he had actually buckled down and gotten things done.  End of 2017, early 2018 sounding likely for WoW, with the 7th book being a total pipe dream at this point.

[honeyed chicken]

Most interesting... He's still writing THEON .  So much for an execution!  

Reading between the lines, I feel he'll have the book's last chapter done by early March ..  Likely we'll have a book in June or July 

I've been predicting for a year that this book would come out right after s.6 in time for the summer reading season like the Harry Potter books did so successfully for a while.

To me it appears the tone here is because he really wanted to beat the show, and he failed at his goal.  

Could well be.

Or . . .

As a sports fan, I'm well aware that people (head football coaches in particular) will look you right in the eye and say things like, "I'm staying here in Miami". "I have zero interest in the Alabama job." And yes, I'm picking on Nick Saban, here, but they all do it. When there's a business decision that involves a ton of money and the timing is important, people will say anything no matter how untrue. For example, maybe when Martin signed his deal with HBO they had a clause in the contract about when the books could be released if the show proved to be successful - which it has (the #1 show on TV worldwide, as GRRM pointed out in his post). I would guess that the success and the amount of money HBO is paying Martin gives them a lot of say in things. You may see this as unfortunate, but it's how the world works. Or maybe the publisher really wants the book to come out after s.6 and they don't care about Martin's feelings and that's why he's depressed.

Admittedly, it is not impossible that he and his publishers are being 100% honest . . . but I doubt it. 

 

If you like.  But that disappointment gives him all the more reason to find a silver lining in the cloud, so his loyal fans don't get too discouraged.  The closest we have to a real progress update is that he has "dozens" of chapters written.  Which I suppose means at least 24 chapters. Which probably means at least 500 pages.  If it is substantially more than that, he has not told us.  I'm pretty sure, at least, that he has not crossed the 1000 page mark yet, otherwise he would not be giving his accomplishments in such vague terms as "I've got hundreds of pages written". 

I take those pages written reports well salted (see above).

Here is my little cheat sheet...I slowed him down by 10% for winds and another 10% for dreams (ChillyPolly's comments)...

Books	Pages	Publication Date	Delta Days	Pages/Day	Age
A Game of Thrones	694	08/06/1996	0		48
A Clash of Kings	768	11/16/1998	832	0.92	50
A Storm of Swords	973	08/08/2000	631	1.54	52
A Feast for Crows	976	11/08/2005	1918	0.51	57
A Dance with Dragons	1040	07/12/2011	2072	0.50	63
The Winds of Winter	1000	08/11/2017	2222	0.45	69
A Dream of Spring	1000	04/15/2024	2439	0.41	76

 

I only post this to show (without knowing any time frame for book 1) that he has written much faster but not on the last two books.  I do think the last two will be slower still.  I am not a writer but I do manage engineering teams and predicting when a project gets finished is best done by looking at the rate of progress....not exactly rocket science.

 

D&D have said "we don't want the show to go on so long that people say "thank god it's over"" and that "we think 7 seasons are to restrictive".  So if they do 8 seasons (2 more than Sopranos), the final season would be in 2018.  We should have book 6 by then I think but book 7 would still be years and years away.  

 

My own personal belief is that GRRM is endangering his own legacy with the spoils of success.  Sad but very common throughout history.  I'm sure he would violently disagree I think it's pretty clear that the books are now at best a part time job and at worst the real distraction from all that comes with success.  

 

I hope he has laid out enough broad strokes for HBO that their story somewhat matches his grand vision of the story.  I also hope by removing all pretenses of "staying ahead of HBO" he feels more relaxed.  Extra stress from the fandom won't help at all.

While I love the level of nerdism on display here (I "may" have put out a chart of my own at some point) I would strongly dispute the AFFC  & ADWD numbers based on the AFFC postscript (appears on p.977 of the pprbk edition):

MEANWHILE, BACK ON THE WALL . . .

"Hey, wait a minute!" some of you may be saying about now. "Wait a minute, wait a minute! Where's Dany and the dragons? Where's Tyrion? We hardly saw Jon Snow. That can't be all of it . . . "

Well, no. There's more to come. Another book as big as this one.

I did not forget to write about the other characters. Far from it. I wrote lots about them. Pages and pages and pages. Chapters and more chapters. I was still writing when it dawned on me that the book had become too big to publish in a single volume . . . and I wasn't close to finished yet. To tell all of the story that I wanted to tell, I was going to have to cut the book in two.

The simplest way to do that would have been to take what I had, chop it in half around the middle, and end with "To Be Continued". The more I thought about that, however, the more I felt that the readers  would be better served by a book that all the story for half the characters. So that's the route I chose to take.

Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Stannis and Melisandre, Davos Seaworth and all the rest of the characters you love or love to hate will be along next year (I devoutly hope) in A Dance with Dragons, which will focus on events along the Wall and across the sea, just as the present book focused on King's Landing. 

- George R.R.Martin  June 2005

I print all of this to avoid the appearance of cherry picking. For instance, I bolded the part where he says he has "pages and pages" "chapters and chapters" of ADWD already written - as of June 2005, mind you - but I also bolded the line, "I wasn't close to finished yet" which I need to remember because I often feel like he had ADWD done in 2005.

I'm rambling on here. The gist of what I'm trying to say is that you all underestimate/fail completely to consider is the degree to which the release date is a business decision.

[The One And Only]

Actually, if you do the math, GRRM probably has written the equivalent of one book in the last decade.  Which is the final parts of ADWD & the majority (hopefully) of TWOW.

As for the ending, even GRRM has said they will basically end up at the same places.  They might take different roads to get there, but the end game is going to be basically the same.  An example of this is how Arya was with Tywin instead of Roose at Harenhall, but she still got to Braavos.

I believe TWOW will be released in 2017.  I'm not sure what month.  I don't think he will ever release ADOS. He might be better of just completing the Dunk & Egg Novelas instead....

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

 

As a sports fan, I'm well aware that people (head football coaches in particular) will look you right in the eye and say things like, "I'm staying here in Miami". "I have zero interest in the Alabama job." And yes, I'm picking on Nick Saban, here, but they all do it. When there's a business decision that involves a ton of money and the timing is important, people will say anything no matter how untrue. For example, maybe when Martin signed his deal with HBO they had a clause in the contract about when the books could be released if the show proved to be successful - which it has (the #1 show on TV worldwide, as GRRM pointed out in his post). I would guess that the success and the amount of money HBO is paying Martin gives them a lot of say in things. You may see this as unfortunate, but it's how the world works. Or maybe the publisher really wants the book to come out after s.6 and they don't care about Martin's feelings and that's why he's depressed.

Admittedly, it is not impossible that he and his publishers are being 100% honest . . . but I doubt it. 

 

Makes total sense. The negotiations probably went something along those lines:

HBO guys: And here's the catch: we want Season 6 of the series to go unspoiled.

GRRM: Season 6? That's it?

- Yeah. We're already too late for Seasons 1 to 5, and you're gonna be too late with your final book to spoil our Season 7. But Season 6 is the only one we really care about. So either you delay finishing your beloved series by several years, to make an unspoiled Season 6 possible, or we don't want your stinking series at all.

- Huh? But what's so important about Season 6?

- What a silly question. Haven't you heard the saying "sixth season is where all the money is"?

- Frankly, no.

- Huh. Lemme check that up, then. For now, let's say we're just evil this way, OK?

[Cas Stark]

HBO has no reason to want to delay his book.  That is nuts.  People need to remember that when they inked the deal with him the expectation was that A Dance with Dragons was going to come out ..any day now....I'm sure they never anticipated that Dance wouldn't see the light of day until 2011.

The reason the book isn't out is because he hasn't finished it.  IMO

[The Fattest Leech]

This news is disappointing but not surprising.

[mormont]

Let's stay on-topic for the forum, please: that means the book, not the series (and particularly not speculation about what GRRM might, or might not, think about the series, which is a pointless guessing game anyway).

[zoidstark]

you guys talk like he didn't have time to finish the book... c'mon guys dance with dragons was released 5 years ago.. 5 years... thats a lot of time to write another book or finish the series... we all know by now that he wont even finish the story

[honeyed chicken]

HBO has no reason to want to delay his book.  That is nuts.  People need to remember that when they inked the deal with him the expectation was that A Dance with Dragons was going to come out ..any day now....I'm sure they never anticipated that Dance wouldn't see the light of day until 2011.

The reason the book isn't out is because he hasn't finished it.  IMO

Not HBO - Bantam. The books sold more after the series came out.

I'm not pessimistic about GRRM finishing the story as so many here are. He writes plenty fast and has written all kinds of other material that is ASOIAF related and some not.

[TaenaOfMyr]

The book and show are not going to have completely different endings. GRRM told D&D the ending so they could make the show storyline move in that direction. So the only way they would be different is if GRRM then decides to change the ending to his books. Which I don't see happening. What author sets things up in a certain direction for 5 books, only to change it around that late? Whatever changes he decides upon are unlikely to be as good as the original concepts he is building up to. He's not going to do it. If he's really upset that the show has spoiled the ending, I would consider it more likely that he doesn't finish the books at all then he changes his ending.

Certainly there will be a lot of the details that are different, since by its very nature the show has had to cut certain storylines due to space and other storylines have been completely unfilmable. But the overall main ending? Who sits on the Iron Throne? The ending for storylines of major characters like Tyrion, Dany, Jon, etc..., the White Walkers, etc...? We'll get the same ending.

Second, this concept that HBO wants the show to beat the books makes no sense. Remember, when the show got established, everyone expected that the books would be finished long before the end. GRRM then went 10 years during which he released only one book, resulting in the situation we are in today. The show has been spoiled by the books for ites entire run. That HBO would suddenly want that changed doesn't make any sense. While I do think that the show beating the books will negatively impact book sales, I do not think that the book beating the show would negatively impact the show's popularity. Remeember that it is an extremely small amount of show viewers who have read the books.

[TywinShitsGold]

 

Makes total sense. The negotiations probably went something along those lines:

HBO guys: And here's the catch: we want Season 6 of the series to go unspoiled.

GRRM: Season 6? That's it?

- Yeah. We're already too late for Seasons 1 to 5, and you're gonna be too late with your final book to spoil our Season 7. But Season 6 is the only one we really care about. So either you delay finishing your beloved series by several years, to make an unspoiled Season 6 possible, or we don't want your stinking series at all.

- Huh? But what's so important about Season 6?

- What a silly question. Haven't you heard the saying "sixth season is where all the money is"?

- Frankly, no.

- Huh. Lemme check that up, then. For now, let's say we're just evil this way, OK?

First thing that crossed my mind a few months back once I started considering the fact that WoW won't be released before S6. Figure the publisher's before-S6-release was a ploy to get more viewership for the TV show.

[TaenaOfMyr]

First thing that crossed my mind a few months back once I started considering the fact that WoW won't be released before S6. Figure the publisher's before-S6-release was a ploy to get more viewership for the TV show.

The before S6 release goal was to help book sales and GRRM so the show wouldn't spoil TWOW before its release (ADOS is a lost cause at this point). It has no impact on TV viewership. You are not getting people who are new to the show solely because they discovered TWOW before season 6's airing. Likewise the number of people who are refusing to watch season 6 due to the book not being out is only the most hardcore fanatical fans, which is a completely insignificant amount of the TV viewership. Not to mention the fact that of said individuals, I would bet less than 5% of the fanatical fans are skipping the new season to be unspoiled, as most realize that the internet, media, news, etc... will spoil them anyway.

[TywinShitsGold]

The before S6 release goal was to help book sales and GRRM so the show wouldn't spoil TWOW before its release (ADOS is a lost cause at this point). It has no impact on TV viewership. You are not getting people who are new to the show solely because they discovered TWOW before season 6's airing. Likewise the number of people who are refusing to watch season 6 due to the book not being out is only the most hardcore fanatical fans, which is a completely insignificant amount of the TV viewership. Not to mention the fact that of said individuals, I would bet less than 5% of the fanatical fans are skipping the new season to be unspoiled, as most realize that the internet, media, news, etc... will spoil them anyway.

Yes, I stand corrected. I count myself among one of the 'hardcore' (as you put it) fans so it looks like I have to keep away from certain Internet spoilers. Fain a plug - in application which would block S6 spoilers.

[Mistress of Lemon Cakes]

Even if the endings are the same, it will be bare bones same. The show and the books will hit the major end game plot points of:

1. Who will sit the Iron Throne when all is said and done (assuming there is even an Iron Throne to be sat)

2. Who lives and who dies of the major characters.

3. The status of the varying "eight" kingdoms.

4. Who the major players will be to defeat the Others.

 

But even then ... they hit the "Tyrion kills his father" plot point but even the moments leading up to that moment (and by moments I mean in universe "minutes") were so vastly different that it doesn't even feel the same. Season 5 had such a huge divergence that literally the only things that remained the same were "Jon Snow is killed in a mutiny at the wall" and "The two Queens are imprisoned; Cersei does a walk of shame" and "Daenerys flies off on a dragon." I imagine the major plot points that may be "spoiled" in the show will be things we can already guess for ourselves: The Wall falls down, Jon Snow is resurrected ... Sansa Stark and the Vale Knights somehow become relevant to the Northern Storyline and the story at large. But it's not going to be truly spoiling things. Like Martin says "Yes. And no." So I'm not too worried about that. I went into the books with some of the major plot points spoiled from having read the internet and wiki but even as I was reading I forgot some of them (including Jon Snow's death, surprisingly enough) simply because the story is so gripping and what I had imagined in my head simply was not what occurred on page.

 

It's disappointing that Winds will not be out. Why people should say "I don't know why you guys are disappointed" is beyond me. Being disappointed that something isn't going to come out is not the same as "I'm completely and utterly surprised it's not coming out. I was willing to bet my mother's life that it'd be out before season 6." It's disappointing. I'm anxious to get my hands on the books because it will be the first time I will be reading it with the rest of the book fandom.

 

I'm mostly curious on what GRRM means by I have "dozens of chapters written." Is that ... 20 chapters? 40 chapters? 60? That's probably the biggest determining factor for how far along he is in the book. I guess only time will tell.

[The One And Only]

Dozens and dozens makes me think it is 2/3rds done... That is pure speculation.

[Littlefinger of the Hand]

For me dozens and dozens means tht both remaining books are almost finished but he has to wait for the best release dates agreed between HBO and the publishing firm. You know. To achieve the maximum profit and advertisement for both products.

 

When 8 digit money amounts are at stake , art can wait.