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What if Robb took Casterly Rock?


Abdallah

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Ok so say during the battle of the blackwater Robb decides to attack Casterly Rock? say he wasn't wounded or he has greatjon or brendan lead the troops, and either Edmure or Roose came to the westerlands to aid Robb. Now if Robb attacked and took Casterly Rock, how would that effect the war against the Lannisters?

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There is absolutely no way Robb could have accomplished that. Robb would probably need to subdue Lannisport first, and even that would be unlikely, I think. Visenya on dragonback doubted her ability to take Casterly Rock.

If, somehow, he managed to do it (which there's no in story reason to believe he could), the Lannisters would obviously be in a very weak position. He'd probably have many Lannisters hostage, which would work very well for him. 

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For one, it would've gone a long way to help with the northerners' morale. It would have been a huge, huge, victory, akin to Aegon taking Storm's End, even more so because Casterly Rock hasn't fallen in centuries. 

The Red Wedding, of course, doesn't happen. With CR, retaking Deepwood Motte and the other couple of northern castles becomes a less pressing issue. In any case, assuming Robb takes control of Lannisport and its fleet as well he can use that to go North. He can even send help to aid the NW against Mance, which means Stannis goes another route instead of heading to the Wall, maybe trying to get Dornish support after Oberyn's death, as Tywin thought. 

Robb would have control of the coffers of CR and the main budget of the crown. Presumably he can use it to send envoys to Essos to hire sellswords.

Then there's the Greyjoy front. Balon would've the mother of all "Duh!" moments, and after his death, Asha's proposal to work with the northerners would look more tempting. 

I guess Joffrey and Tywin would've died anyway, so then the surviving Lannisters would have their hands full, to say the least. They'd be facing: 

- Storm's End

- Dragonstone

- Winterfell

- Riverrun (and this time, since the Freys don't switch sides outright, the Lannisters would be facing full armies rather than just sieges)

- Pyke

- Casterly Rock

- A potential Stannis-Dorne alliance

They'd spread themselves thin and Robb would be alive in the current timeline

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I don't know if it's impossible to take CR. It's a strong fortress. If both Edmure's 11K and Roose's 12 K join Robb's 6 K he'd have 27K to take Casterly Rock. Thing is Grey Wind would find any secret passage which might lead to stark infiltration. 

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4 minutes ago, Abdallah said:

I don't know if it's impossible to take CR. It's a strong fortress. If both Edmure's 11K and Roose's 12 K join Robb's 6 K he'd have 27K to take Casterly Rock. Thing is Grey Wind would find any secret passage which might lead to stark infiltration. 

So Edmure abandons the Riverlands and how do Roose's forces get pass Tywin at Harrenhall? This all is a very big IF...

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1 minute ago, Lord Wraith said:

So Edmure abandons the Riverlands and how do Roose's forces get pass Tywin at Harrenhall? This all is a very big IF...

Not Abandons, Tywin's forces withdrew to fight Stannis. Tywin's forces are farther south when he went to bitterbridge. They wouldn't be in each other's way. 

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1 minute ago, Abdallah said:

Not Abandons, Tywin's forces withdrew to fight Stannis. Tywin's forces are farther south when he went to bitterbridge. They wouldn't be in each other's way. 

Right still the part about Edmure abandoning the Riverlands makes no sense. Why spent all this time at Casterly Rock when the North has already been attacked by the Ironborn. It won't change anything if they take it. The North is still lost and the Tyrell Lannister alliance is still formed.

Maybe its just because I am tried of all this "what if's" :P

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Impossible scenario, bigger armies fell below Rock, but lets assume he somehow managed to take it.

Tywin assures Tyrells it is temporarly and they take Stannis, Robb masses entire army in the Rock because he will need it to take it. Tywin terorises RL because no one can stop him, takes all castles and waits, after a while shows below Rock with 80k men and starves Robb. War was lost in that moment when Tyrell-Lannister pact was sealed.

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Even if somehow Robb took CR (which I am 100% in agreement with those saying he could not under any circumstances), he would lose so many men that holding it against any Tywin reprisal would be a difficult position.

While Robb would have the strategic position, he'd also be facing a powerful insurgency within a fortress he doesn't know, and his forces would be picked off bit by bit. Even if he had a ton of Lannister hostages, Tywin wouldn't give two shits and would easily sacrifice them all. The war would take a bit longer, but the result would be the same.

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1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

Right still the part about Edmure abandoning the Riverlands makes no sense. Why spent all this time at Casterly Rock when the North has already been attacked by the Ironborn. It won't change anything if they take it. The North is still lost and the Tyrell Lannister alliance is still formed.

Maybe its just because I am tried of all this "what if's" :P

ok Edmure would leave a portion of his armies to hold the castles. 

 

Yeah i feel u. Theres been alot of these what ifs. still just wondering. 

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5 hours ago, dread wolf said:

if robb took the castle instead of holding a foriegn castle with no knowledge of it he should empty the coffers and get away as soon as possible

It's impossible to rob the Lannisters of all the gold in Casterly Rock. Apparently there are still a bunch of veins that haven't been mined yet even after so many years.

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First of all I can’t see how Robb would have managed to do that. The Westerlands are heavily fortified and CR is Fort Knox.  CR could have easily resisted a siege up until Tywin could regroup (possibly aided by the Tyrells) and crush Robb once and for all.

However lets say Robb manages to capture CR. Well, it will all depend on the Tyrells. If they decide that Tywin had lost it, then they would probably pull the plug from their alliance with them and Robb would have stood a good chance of winning. If not, well, the young wolf would have ended up holed in CR, with hordes of Tyrell and Lannister soldiers around him until he finally surrenders. Gold means nothing if you are given the opportunity to buy and sell stuff with it.

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I am not going to speculate on what would have happened had he taken CR, but I 100% believe that this should have been his goal.

Robb knew that the Lannisters were going to have to fight Renly and Stannis at King's Landing, and Robb was not trying to take the Crown for himself, so he had no need to join that fight.

By attacking the Westerlands he would have forced Tywin to choose either King's Landing or Casterly Rock, essentially giving one of them up. Either way it ends in the Lannisters losing.

If Tywin chooses to defend Casterly Rock, then Stannis/ Renly take King's Landing and become the new King. The new King can not let the Lannisters continue to be LP of the Westerlands so they join in against CR.

If Tywin chooses King's Landing, then CR is ripe for the picking and now Robb holds the North, The Riverlands and the Westerlands, has no enemy (at least yet) to his south (The Reach) or to his north-east (the Vale) and only to his south-east (the Crownlands), so now he can focus on holding the Riverlands (and eventually taking the Iron Islands) and keeping the Lannisters bottled in and let the Baratheons take King's Landing.

 

And if Robb holds the Riverlands, The North and the Westerlands, he has plenty of bargaining power to either make a sweet deal to kneel to the new King or to negotiate Independence for the North (and maybe Riverlands) if that is what he wants.

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Casterly Rock was not going to happen.

Lord Balon grunted. "Casterly Rock has never fallen."

Lannisport may have been possible if either Robb had the Ironborn support or had Roose and Edmure join him in the West leaving the Riverlands wide open and vulnerable to Tywin or any rebels. And of course they would have had to get past the Golden Tooth to join Robb which would weaken their force.

The trouble is was the Riverland Lords ready to make that sacrifice?

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I actually think Robb taking Casterly Rock is not as insane as other people here but we know there must be air vents and that there are sewers etc etc.  It is hypothetically possible that Greywind could find a less defended/ non defended entrance to the fortress.  Robb used his foot very poorly throughout the war.  If Roose followed him into the Westerlands he could have had the power to take Lannisport, if he took Lannisport and CR things would change very rapidly. 

Once Joffrey and Tywin die, Jaime, Cersei, and Kevan would be the only adult lannisters left and the Tyrells would be asserting a lot more power than they did in the existing timeline, which would antagonize Cersei even more.  Cersei would've ordered the Redwyn fleet to Lannisport/ CR rather than Dragonstone, so Stannis is in a better position as well.

Basically the Lannisters would be forced to march their entire strength back to the Westerlands while the Tyrells moved into the Riverlands and to Storms End.  What happens next is anyone's guess.

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13 hours ago, dariopatke said:

Impossible scenario, bigger armies fell below Rock, but lets assume he somehow managed to take it.

Tywin assures Tyrells it is temporarly and they take Stannis, Robb masses entire army in the Rock because he will need it to take it. Tywin terorises RL because no one can stop him, takes all castles and waits, after a while shows below Rock with 80k men and starves Robb. War was lost in that moment when Tyrell-Lannister pact was sealed.

Pretty much this.

Taking Lannisport might be a more reasonable scenario, though one that is still extremely unlikely/risky. Casterly Rock was not going to fall to Robb's full strength, if he even manages to get it all in the same place at the right time, which is also extremely unlikely.

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36 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Pretty much this.

Taking Lannisport might be a more reasonable scenario, though one that is still extremely unlikely/risky. Casterly Rock was not going to fall to Robb's full strength, if he even manages to get it all in the same place at the right time, which is also extremely unlikely.

unless of course Greywind found a forgotten pass. remember greywind is a good scout. 

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31 minutes ago, Abdallah said:

unless of course Greywind found a forgotten pass. remember greywind is a good scout. 

Just because characters and creatures in a fantasy novel have supernatural attributes, that doesn't mean there aren't limitations on their abilities.

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