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Stormking902

What does Robert do if the Tyrell siege cost Stannis and his Garrisom there lives???

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Everything happens as cannon accept Davos doesnt reach Stannis in time and Stormsend and its Garrison all starve to death. Stannis before his own death is forced to put most of his Garrison to the sword for conspiring to open the gates to save themselves. What is Roberts punishment for the Tyrells and do the Tyrells even try and bend the knee after what has happened? 

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7 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Everything happens as cannon accept Davos doesnt reach Stannis in time and Stormsend and its Garrison all starve to death. Stannis before his own death is forced to put most of his Garrison to the sword for conspiring to open the gates to save themselves. What is Roberts punishment for the Tyrells and do the Tyrells even try and bend the knee after what has happened? 

I'm not sure Robert was in a position to punish the Tyrells, and in any case Stannis died as a casualty of war. I don't think Robert, who was never fond of his brother, would've been that wroth. He'd have given either Storm's End or Dragonstone to Renly, and kept the other, possibly as a gift for his crown prince.

The most he'd realistically do is transfer some border vassals to the Stormlands and Crownlands. Anything else would be suicidal.

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Renly was there, so he would be dead aswell...

Robert's love was dutiful to his brothers but he did loved them... he would pardon the rest, it's war, but Jon would need a miraculous persuasive deed for Robert not to kill mace and tarly himself 

 

Edited by Laughing Storm Reborn

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Robert never really loved Stannis or Renly, he said he would rather be Ned's brother, he chose Ned to be his brother, not Stannis or Renly. He was dutiful towards them, but that was it, I really doubt he would flip and attack the Tyrells, that would cause even more war and the realm would be really tore apart.

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If Stannis dies, it's most likely of starvation. Would Renly be dead as well? If so, Robert's whole family would have died during the siege, as well as pretty much everyone he knew there from his childhood. I think he would be pissed. 

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Robert would not be mad at all that both of his brothers died a horrible death of starvation.

 

Nay. He would forget about it quickly and welcome Mace with open arms.

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I imagine he'd want to continue the war, and the Tyrells would understandably not want to surrender to someone whose family they just killed. Robert and co. would probably win (seeing as they have the resources of the North, Riverlands, Crownlands, Stormlands, Vale and Westerlands at their disposal) and Mace would almost certainly face some disloyalty from his vassals. Things might change if Dorne jumps in on Mace's side, but given his attitude toward the Dornish I doubt it'd be an effective alliance. 

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The Tyrells would have been done.  Robert would have been angry, and also need to make a show, at least, of giving a damn about his brothers

The Tyrells were stewards until the Field of Fire.  There are families in the Reach who believe that they by right of closer kinship to the Gardeners are the rightful lords of the reach, most notably the Florents.  If Robert came down with a big enough army, Mace might have had real problems keeping the loyalty of his bannermen.

There's also the small matter of historical disputes between the Reach and the Rock.  Tywin might have seen it as an opportunity to expand his lands.

 

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12 hours ago, Daenerys Targaryen's slave said:

Robert would not be mad at all that both of his brothers died a horrible death of starvation.

 

Nay. He would forget about it quickly and welcome Mace with open arms.

This x100

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Posted (edited)

11 hours ago, PrinceHenryris said:

The Tyrells would have been done.  Robert would have been angry, and also need to make a show, at least, of giving a damn about his brothers

The Tyrells were stewards until the Field of Fire.  There are families in the Reach who believe that they by right of closer kinship to the Gardeners are the rightful lords of the reach, most notably the Florents.  If Robert came down with a big enough army, Mace might have had real problems keeping the loyalty of his bannermen.

There's also the small matter of historical disputes between the Reach and the Rock.  Tywin might have seen it as an opportunity to expand his lands.

 

This.

The Tyrell's might not be completely destroyed, though, given that; as has been mentioned; Robert's love for his brothers is more dutiful than anything, so he might not be as vengeful as he was against the Targaryen's. That being said, Mace Tyrell would have been killed/exiled/dispossessed and his sons taken as hostage's.

The Florents at least would jump on Robert's bandwagon at this point, probably along with several other smaller house's. The Hightower's I think stayed neutral in RR and would probably continue to do so along with their vassal's. So Mace wouldn't be able to call on the full manpower of the Reach. Combined with the fact that he's up against the fresh and undamaged armies of the Westerlands and the experienced armies of the Riverlands, Vale and North means the Tyrell's would be in a pretty poor situation. Their wealth couldn't even save them at this point, because the Lannister gold and treasury of King's Landing are also against them.

Really, the only advantage they have is the Redwyne fleet. While a Baratheon victory would be inevitable, Robert's lack of a fleet would cost him heavily. But even the threat of the Arbor is neutralized if Robert can get the Greyjoy's on side.

Edited by Adam Yozza

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Renly was what, eight? Chances are Renly dines on the soldiers killed for attempting to open the gates and is the one to open the gates to Tyrells.

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22 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Everything happens as cannon accept Davos doesnt reach Stannis in time and Stormsend and its Garrison all starve to death. Stannis before his own death is forced to put most of his Garrison to the sword for conspiring to open the gates to save themselves.

And, somewhere around that moment, the discipline, and Stannis' command, disintegrates. I mean, there's only so much his own soldiers he can kill because they start killing right back.

17 hours ago, Daenerys Targaryen's slave said:

Robert would not be mad at all that both of his brothers died a horrible death of starvation.

Nay. He would forget about it quickly and welcome Mace with open arms.

(Actually, it does sound like Bob...)

Neither Jon Arryn nor Ned would've supported Bob going medieval on the Tyrell asses.

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On 2016-12-31 at 9:51 PM, Stormking902 said:

Everything happens as cannon accept Davos doesnt reach Stannis in time and Stormsend and its Garrison all starve to death. Stannis before his own death is forced to put most of his Garrison to the sword for conspiring to open the gates to save themselves. What is Roberts punishment for the Tyrells and do the Tyrells even try and bend the knee after what has happened? 

I think everything changes. House Targaryen wins the battle of the Trident.

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25 minutes ago, BeastMaster64 said:

I think everything changes. House Targaryen wins the battle of the Trident.

If the scenario put forward in the op happens far enough before the Battle of the Trident for Mace to march his army to link up with Rhaegar, then yes, very likely. I'd think though that it would be more likely to happen somewhere around time of the battle, given that Davos' single shipment of food allowed the whole garrison to survive until Ned arrived. I'd say Davos only arrived in the last two/three weeks of the siege and so, as I said, it probably occurred shortly before/after the battle.

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Ok, I will assume same result at Trident and King´s landing.

Roberts army is tired of war, have witnessed siege of King´s landing and have ended the Targs as they wanted. They are not ready for this war - not against tens of thousands of Reachment, fresh and well fed. Even with that Oaf Mace, their training and skill are most likely second to none. In addition, that less than 40k army most likely took severe losses at the Trident themselves, despite winning.

In short, this would be a long and brutal war with the Ironborns, men of the Westerland and the rests of Roberts decimated and wartired army vs an enemy who saved most of their 100-110000 troops due to the modest assistance sent to Rhaegar. In addition, Dorne won´t help this alliance, even against their ancestral enemies, due to the whole "Elia situation". In addition, Ned, Jon and Robert himself most likely realize that these things happen at war and if Robert didnt want family-members killed, then maybe he shouldn´t have started the war in the first place - after all, he was a warrior back then. The Tyrells might not have cared that much for the dragons, but they do certainly care for their paramountship and houses like the Florent are more the exception than the norm. Especially if the threat comes from a newly crowned king who usurped the old, and in the Reach at least somewhat popular, dynasty.

I see nothing but the same peace, maybe with some harsher terms. Increased war contributions, even higher taxes, a ward sent to King´s landing and all that good stuff. If they push this too hard, the Tyrells might declare independence and if the Ironborn follow suit, anything can happen. The one with the greatest motive to fight this war might be Tywin - so he can redeem himself in the eyes of Robert and maybe get some pieces of land as well as weakening a rival.

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19 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Things might change if Dorne jumps in on Mace's side, but given his attitude toward the Dornish I doubt it'd be an effective alliance. 

I agree. The Martells would just have lost 10k at the Trident, and we know that they are the least populous of the seven kingdoms. They would be in no shape to be a game changer for the Tyrells. Robert could just replace the Tyrells with the Florents if he wanted to.

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30 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Ok, I will assume same result at Trident and King´s landing.

Roberts army is tired of war, have witnessed siege of King´s landing and have ended the Targs as they wanted. They are not ready for this war - not against tens of thousands of Reachment, fresh and well fed. Even with that Oaf Mace, their training and skill are most likely second to none. In addition, that less than 40k army most likely took severe losses at the Trident themselves, despite winning.

In short, this would be a long and brutal war with the Ironborns, men of the Westerland and the rests of Roberts decimated and wartired army vs an enemy who saved most of their 100-110000 troops due to the modest assistance sent to Rhaegar. In addition, Dorne won´t help this alliance, even against their ancestral enemies, due to the whole "Elia situation". In addition, Ned, Jon and Robert himself most likely realize that these things happen at war and if Robert didnt want family-members killed, then maybe he shouldn´t have started the war in the first place - after all, he was a warrior back then. The Tyrells might not have cared that much for the dragons, but they do certainly care for their paramountship and houses like the Florent are more the exception than the norm. Especially if the threat comes from a newly crowned king who usurped the old, and in the Reach at least somewhat popular, dynasty.

I see nothing but the same peace, maybe with some harsher terms. Increased war contributions, even higher taxes, a ward sent to King´s landing and all that good stuff. If they push this too hard, the Tyrells might declare independence and if the Ironborn follow suit, anything can happen. The one with the greatest motive to fight this war might be Tywin - so he can redeem himself in the eyes of Robert and maybe get some pieces of land as well as weakening a rival.

I disagree. The Tyrells don't have nearly 100-110 men, not even the Tyrells and the Stormlands combined had 100k at Bitterbridge. The Reach is notoriously divided with many lords having a claim on the paramountship, so there would be a lot room for betrayal. Meanwhile, Robert's host would have been just strenghtened by the Freys and the Westerlands. The Westerlands alone can at least field something like 40k men, already half the number the Reach can field. Add to that the well over 30k seasoned soldiers directly under Robert's control, plus any number of men his four kingdoms can additionally field. Already we can conservatively estimate well over 70k, and that's not including any losses the Tyrells had during the Trident and due to betrayal by disloyal bannermen, or bannermen not willing to commit their whole power to such a risky war.

Financially, while the Reach is rich, Robert would be even better off, with the Lannister wealth and the combined wealth of the Vale, the North (especially the Manderlys), the Riverlands, the Stormlands and the capital (which at this point had a large enough royal treasury), so he even has the advantage there. 

And between Robert, Tywin, Brynden, and others, the king also has more seasoned commanders than the Reach.

How do you figure that their training and skill would be second to none? The knights of the Reach have a good reputation, but so do the knights of the Vale, the Westermen are generally the most well-trained and well-equipped due to the wealth of the Westerlands, the Stormlands have a long martial tradition, and the North is a rough place, thus probably producing tough soldiers as well. Plus, while the Reachmen set on their asses for their duration of the war (except for the van under Tarly's command), all men under Robert are veterans, except for the westermen. 

"Decimated" isn't really a good word, the Westermen took for all we know very little casualties and the casualties on the Trident are unknown, plus the Freys would most likely be a good substitute for the lost men. Meanwhile, the Reach host fighting at the Trident is described as "sizeable", so we can assume at least 10k. 

In short, it's five kingdoms vs one with divided loyalties. Mace has no chance and if he wishes to do so, Robert could easily replace him and offer the Reach to Florent, Rowan, Tarly, or even Hightower. It would not be a long war if Robert decided to get rid of the Tyrells.

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As many have said the Tyrells can be removed from power rather easily since the Reach vassals loyaltys are very questionable to say the least, only Hightower and Redwyn have strong blood ties and that didnt help when the hightowers constantly stay neutral and the Redwyns arnt gonna risk everything for Mace family or not. 

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16 hours ago, John Doe said:

In short, it's five kingdoms vs one with divided loyalties. Mace has no chance and if he wishes to do so, Robert could easily replace him and offer the Reach to Florent, Rowan, Tarly, or even Hightower. It would not be a long war if Robert decided to get rid of the Tyrells.

Yeah, but you are not fighting the war in 10 or 20 years when the losses for the rebels have been replenished. You need to fight it now. Even with your estimates we are talking 70k Rebels vs the Reach, who at the bare minimum should be able to field the same amount and can almost match the Ironborn by the sea as well. War is after all expensive and the Rebels have committed one for a pretty long time now, far away from their own territory in the case of the North and the Vale while the Reach has camped outside Storm´s End foraging of that land.

And that is where this model goes down. All these lords went out to stop the dragons. Now, you think all those would be willing to depose the Tyrells because Robert might be pissed and add a continuation of the war? Not only the Reach will have less than willing bannerman in such a scenario. Sure, the Reach might not want to assist the Tyrells THAT much, but they are still their overlord and when armies pop up on your territory you tend to dislike that. After all - if the Tyrells will be deposed what stops the other reachlords from suffering the same fate?

And considering that this will be a defensive war for the Reach it will mean they can get new troops easier and with shorter logistic. 100k is definitly a minimum number in this scenario, minus the losses they took in RR. Anything less for them than 70k is unrealistic.

This is a inconclusive war with a slight economical advantage for the revels in the long run. But no one would be willing fighting that long. And if Robert gives them the King´s peace, he really cant attack them later about the same issue. There is no way in hell the Tyrell will be removed easily in this situation, it will be a 50/50 war.

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Posted (edited)

12 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Yeah, but you are not fighting the war in 10 or 20 years when the losses for the rebels have been replenished. You need to fight it now. Even with your estimates we are talking 70k Rebels vs the Reach, who at the bare minimum should be able to field the same amount and can almost match the Ironborn by the sea as well. War is after all expensive and the Rebels have committed one for a pretty long time now, far away from their own territory in the case of the North and the Vale while the Reach has camped outside Storm´s End foraging of that land.

And that is where this model goes down. All these lords went out to stop the dragons. Now, you think all those would be willing to depose the Tyrells because Robert might be pissed and add a continuation of the war? Not only the Reach will have less than willing bannerman in such a scenario. Sure, the Reach might not want to assist the Tyrells THAT much, but they are still their overlord and when armies pop up on your territory you tend to dislike that. After all - if the Tyrells will be deposed what stops the other reachlords from suffering the same fate?

And considering that this will be a defensive war for the Reach it will mean they can get new troops easier and with shorter logistic. 100k is definitly a minimum number in this scenario, minus the losses they took in RR. Anything less for them than 70k is unrealistic.

This is a inconclusive war with a slight economical advantage for the revels in the long run. But no one would be willing fighting that long. And if Robert gives them the King´s peace, he really cant attack them later about the same issue. There is no way in hell the Tyrell will be removed easily in this situation, it will be a 50/50 war.

At the bare minimum? They lost a sizeable host at the Trident, from a force that, while being bigger than any other kingdom's hosts, must be considerably less than a hundred thousand. And to quote not only Catelyn as source, this is what Tyrion says in ASOS:

 

Quote

"Then take a good sniff, my lord. Fill up your nose. Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you'll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can't really say how many are left, but there's more than I care to count, anyway."

Notice how even when trying to impress Oberyn, where an exaggeration seems likely, seventy thousand is only the last and biggest number he states. So, given a fairly conservative of the rebell forces, they already easily match this number, while having more money, and a generally probably better leadership.

And, not to sound overly repetitive, they still had losses on the Trident which would have to be substracted from that number. 

Edited by John Doe

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