A black crow and a pink letter

[Mithras]

I don't think it does.

You propose, that the letter has been edited. Earlier in this thread, I questioned how that would be possible. You provided the explanation, that blood ink can be easily erased => Fair enaugh, that might be possible.

But there are other inconsistencies you haven't addressed.

Case 1: The letter has been tempered with. First of all, Jon doesn't notice a change in handwriting, so there's that. But let's ignore this for a second. So, parts were erased, other parts added. Question is: Why? What could they have erased and added, and to what end? The letter Jon reads is aggressive from beginning to end. It's not as if it starts out diplomatic, and then suddenly the tone switches to blunt threats and insults. Every single passage is aggressive. So, what did they do? Did they insert a few "bastards" to make him more angry or what?

Jon does not notice a change in handwriting because he is not thinking good at that time. It is clearly noted how both letters from Ramsay shook him. Besides, Ramsay is not an artist with a quill. His handswriting (huge and spiky) should not be difficult to copy, which will evade a shocked eye at first glance. So GRRM can well give us the difference in handwriting in the next book. He already gave the possibility. Nobody has the right to call such a thing as bad writing (if it happens this way).

The reason for this editing the letter is mentioned in some other threads too. Yes the insults and the bastars are added for further messing the head of Jon. Have a look at the following quotes and tell me Jon does not give shit to what people say about him:

Thorne staggered back, rubbing the marks Jon’s fingers had left on his neck. “You see for yourselves, brothers. The boy is a wildling.”

Boy was not the worst of the things that Jon Snow had been called since being chosen lord commander.

The king was unmoved. “I have knights and lords in my service, scions of noble Houses old in honor. They cannot be expected to serve under poachers, peasants, and murderers.”

Or bastards, Sire?

“Some of your own Sworn Brothers would have me believe that you are half a wildling yourself. Is it true?”

“I am no lord, sire.” Jon rose. “I know what you have heard. That I am a turncloak, and craven.

“What everyone knows is that Ser Alliser is a knight from a noble line, and trueborn, while I’m the bastard who killed Qhorin Halfhand and bedded with a spearwife. The warg, I’ve heard them call me. How can I be a warg without a wolf, I ask you?”

“Greyguard’s a good place for the likes of you, I’m thinking. Well away from decent godly folk. The mark of the beast is on you, bastard.”

Marsh hesitated. “Lord Snow, I am not one to bear tales, but there has been talk that you are becoming too … too friendly with Lord Stannis. Some even suggest that you are … a …”

A rebel and a turncloak, aye, and a bastard and a warg as well. Janos Slynt might be gone, but his lies lingered.

Mully cleared his throat. “M’lord? The wildling princess, letting her go, the men may say—”

“—that I am half a wildling myself, a turncloak who means to sell the realm to our raiders, cannibals, and giants.”

I am not the trusting fool you take me for … nor am I half wildling, no matter what you believe.

“These are godless savages,” said Septon Cellador. “Even in the south the treachery of wildlings is renowned.”

“It’s us that keeps you safe, the black crows you despise.”

“So the bastard boy sends me out to die.”

“The bastard boy is sending you out to range.”

The list might not be complete because I wasn't done rereading. So the content and the manner of the letter is quite capable of shocking Jon. It actually did. Tormund's observation of Jon after reading the letter tells us something.

“Snow?” said Tormund Giantsbane. “You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’ that paper.”

In short, Jon is in a condition such that missing the inconsistencies in the handwriting or in the content is very possible.

There something which is openly said in the text but not noticed by Jon as well. The letter Ramsay sent to Asha and the previous letter he sent to Jon (declaring the fall of Moat Cailin, marriage with fArya etc.) are said to be exactly sealed with a button of hard pink wax whereas the pink letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. According to you, Jon should have noted this. What I say is that he didnot notice this either .because he was shaken.

Case 2: The whole letter has been switched at the wall. Then all the arguments about the blood ink, how it can be erased, how Stannis has the means to write something like this etc. are meaningless. It doesn't even matter that an original letter was ever sent. So you might as well just propose, that there never was an original letter by Ramsay, Mance, Stannis, Moonboy or anyone. Bowen Marsh just faked the whole thing. Somewhere else you said, that this thing has Thorne's handwriting all over it, but he's still on his ranging beyond the Wall as far as we know. I'd like to see some strong evidence... So far, the hints you've provided are weak at best and make zero sense at worst.

The original latter absolutely matters, otherwise how could the editors would get the information in the letter? I said Thorne secretly returned from ranging and he is the mastermind behind all this conspiracy. There is not much direct textual evidences for Thorne's return but he is the only person who could design such a conspiracy. The Black Gate is not a secret. Thorne said he would return dead or alive. Dywen was the leader of that ranging. He is the best ranger alive. Jon reflected Thorne was in better hands than he deserved. There is the secret chamber which bemused pointed out.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

There is the secret chamber which bemused pointed out.

A Chamber of Secrets? Read that long ago. But you know what? I've always wondered what had beridden Grrm to name two characters, Salador Saan and Septon Cellador after a "cellar door".

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Lamprey, forgive me if I'm wrong but your evidence seems mainly to support the theory that Ramsay did not write the letter. What I'm not seeing is any evidence that the letter was written by Ramsay and then re-written. The change in handwriting, lack of blood ink, incorrect seal and wildling phrases all support the OP that Mance (or some other unknown party, for that matter) wrote the letter. Why introduce the "edit"? Other than your own conviction, is there anything in the text to indicate this to be the case? Ftr, I read all your posts on the subject, including the linked ones. I'm just not seeing it.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Hi all, I've been lurking since this thread started - great analysis all around. I've always been partial to the theory that Mance authored the pink letter, this certainly adds a lot fuel to that fire. (sorry for the formatting issue below)

Quote

Ravencraft is a science. I even think after a certain level, it is mostly a gift. You cannot just tie a parchment to a raven's feet and expect it to fly. I think the maesters have a universal command system for each castle in Westeros. A random maester can inspect a random raven and can tell where it was taught to fly. Without any training in Old Town or attending to a maester for some time, I dont think anyone can send a raven.

I think Maester Luwin's offer to teach bran "the speech of ravens" would have been the type of training Mance would have received at CB under Maester Aemon (assuming that's where he was raised or under one of the Maesters at the other keeps along the wall). In his youth (8) Mance's future as a gifted ranger wouldn't have been established, but he could still be trained in ravencraft, which would be of great utility for the watch regardless of his future job detail. Maesters also cost money (SSM), so it makes sense for the Watch to train non-maesters in ravencraft, which clearly happens (the Septon, Sam, Chett). So I really don't see any reason why the Watch would waste a perfectly good opportunity to save some cash and cover all bases when raising the Mance into a man.

Furthermore the phrasing "the speech of ravens" seems to indicate voice commands are involved in ravencraft. And we know from Bloodraven that all ravens have "singers" (aka: CotF) inside of them and it was the "singers" who taught the First Men how to communicate directly w/ ravens and who were thus able to send messages without any parchment at all:

Then he realized he was not alone. “Someone else was in the raven,” he told Lord Brynden, once he had returned to his own skin. “Some girl. I felt her.”

“A woman, of those who sing the song of earth,” his teacher said. “Long dead, yet a part of her remains, just as a part of you would remain in Summer if your boy’s flesh were to die upon the morrow. A shadow on the soul. She will not harm you.”

“Do all the birds have singers in them?”

“All,” Lord Brynden said. “It was the singers who taught the First Men to send messages by raven ... but in those days, the birds would speak the words. The trees remember, but men forget, and so now they write the messages on parchment and tie them round the feet of birds who have never shared their skin.”

It's possible Mance's knowledge of the Old Tongue, which the CotF seem to know even if their True Tongue predates that of the Old Tongue, means he might know "the speech of ravens" and thus have the ability to communicate w/ them via voice commands without any need of a maester to identify a specific raven destined for a specific location.

As to the theory that the letter was edited at the Wall, I find this to be the least convincing explanation. I read both of the links above, and I know bemused has also theorized along similar lines, but I'm still not convinced. The only support for this argument is that blood ink can be erased, Theon told Stannis that Ramsay wants his "Reek and his bride", and Jon's final PoV mirrors Kevan's Epilogue, none of which is very convincing IMO. We don't know if blood ink is erasable, just because some of it flakes off that doesn't mean there is no remaining trace of blood soaked into the parchment. If the letter was written in more than one hand Jon likely would have noted as much, because he does so when he receives the last letter from Stannis and GRRM even uses a different font to denote the change in penmanship. If the letter was written in blood or both blood and ink, it likely would have been noted. And Mance knows what Ramsay wants and how he speaks much better than Stannis who's never met him, plus there is much stronger textual analysis beyond this minor detail that points to Mance (black crow, bastard, red witch, false king, reference to heart eating as opposed to flaying/burning - Manderly also uses the later two phrases in reference to Mel and Stan, and he's engaged in a bit of cannibalism...just sayin'). I think you've drawn some interesting parallels between the Jon and Kevan chapters (daggers in the dark, false letters/summons) but I don't see how Kevan's chapter demonstrates that the pink letter was edited.

[Nittanian]

A Chamber of Secrets? Read that long ago. But you know what? I've always wondered what had beridden Grrm to name two characters, Salador Saan and Septon Cellador after a "cellar door".

Aesthetics?

[mrlukeduke]

IMO the Mance theories require a LOT of maybes and speculations as posted just previously. It could be Mance is the author, I just find that there are fewer anomalies and stretches of imagination with Ramsay (or even Roose). It's really a great mystery either way.

[Mithras]

Ser Brynden laughed again. “Much as I would welcome the chance to take that golden sword away from you and cut out your black heart, your promises are worthless. I would gain nothing from your death but the pleasure of killing you, and I will not risk my own life for that... as small a risk as that may be.”

It was a good thing that Jaime wore no sword; elsewise he would have ripped his blade out, and if Ser Brynden did not slay him, the archers on the walls most surely would.

“He never took it. He slipped around it in the night. It’s said the direwolf showed him the way, that Grey Wind of his. The beast sniffed out a goat track that wound down a defile and up along beneath a ridge, a crooked and stony way, yet wide enough for men riding single file. The Lannisters in their watchtowers got not so much a glimpse of them.” Rivers lowered his voice. “There’s some say that after the battle, the king cut out Stafford Lannister’s heart and fed it to the wolf.”

“I have a knife myself. Captain Khorane made me a gift of it.” He pulled out the dirk and laid it on the table between them. “A knife to cut out Melisandre’s heart. If she has one.”

Styr scowled. “His heart may still be black.”

“Then cut it out.”

The prince smiled. “Do all dwarfs have tongues like yours? Someone is going to cut it out one of these days.”

“You are not the first to tell me that. Perhaps I should cut it out myself, it seems to make no end of trouble.”

“Cutting out the eyes, that’s the Weeper’s work. The best crow’s a blind crow, he likes to say. Sometimes I think he’d like to cut out his own eyes, the way they’re always watering and itching. Snow’s been assuming the free folk would turn to Tormund to lead them, because that’s what he would do. He liked Tormund, and the old fraud liked him too. If it’s the Weeper, though … that’s not good. Not for him, and not for us.”

“A year later this same wench had the impudence to turn up at the Dreadfort with a squalling, red-faced monster that she claimed was my own get. I should’ve had the mother whipped and thrown her child down a well … but the babe did have my eyes. She told me that when her dead husband’s brother saw those eyes, he beat her bloody and drove her from the mill. That annoyed me, so I gave her the mill and had the brother’s tongue cut out, to make certain he did not go running to Winterfell with tales that might disturb Lord Rickard. Each year I sent the woman some piglets and chickens and a bag of stars, on the understanding that she was never to tell the boy who had fathered him. A peaceful land, a quiet people, that has always been my rule.”

The bolded phrase is not specific to wildlings.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Ser Brynden laughed again. “Much as I would welcome the chance to take that golden sword away from you and cut out your black heart...

The bolded phrase is not specific to wildlings.

Ahah, so the blackfish wrote that dreaded letter :)

ETA: of course he didn't. For lack of a motive and more.

[milkofthepoppy]

I'm sure it's been mentioned before (though I can't find it anywhere) but my major qualm with the "take it at face value: Ramsey wrote the letter" theory, is that there are no pieces of skin accompanying it.

If, indeed, the spearwives were all flayed, why not include a tiny bit of skin-- as is Ramsey's MO?

[Petyr Patter]

I'm sure it's been mentioned before (though I can't find it anywhere) but my major qualm with the "take it at face value: Ramsey wrote the letter" theory, is that there are no pieces of skin accompanying it.

If, indeed, the spearwives were all flayed, why not include a tiny bit of skin-- as is Ramsey's MO?

I'm not sure you'll find anyone who says take the letter at completely face value, meaning everything in the letter is true. The question is what are lies and what are truths.

And while Ramsay has attached skin to letters in the past, that hardly means he is going to do it every single time. He specifically used pieces of Theon's skin as a way to intimidate the Iron Born who he sent the letters to. He was also showing off his cruelty. Plus, I think he just liked the alliteration in "a piece of prince." "Wildling Skin" just doesn't have some resonance.

If the letter was a rush job done under stressful circumstances, he probably didn't have time to get some skin that wouldn't mean much to Jon Snow.

[Mithras]

Ahah, so the blackfish wrote that dreaded letter :)

No, it was Tyrion :drunk:

That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime’s good as dead, so I’m all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said.

[oursisthefury69]

I'm not sure how people who still think it was Ramsay

1. Think Mance got caught by him.

2. Ramsay somehow removes whatever Glamour or disguise Mance was wearing to find his true appearance.

3. He somehow unthinkably recognizes Mance for Mance (honestly who in WInterfell would even know who he is even if he was fully discovered?)

Its gota be Mance or Stannis, there the only ones who knew Mance was there, and both stand the most too gain. Mance gets his wildlings south of the Wall, and Stannis gets what he wanted the whole book, Jon in WInterfell

[Mithras]

2. Ramsay somehow removes whatever Glamour or disguise Mance was wearing to find his true appearance.

Mance does not wear glamor in Winterfell. Refer to his original description made by Jon and how Theon describes him.

[Julia H.]

I have just found this thread and read all of it. I really like how the OP is based on research work and textual evidence and the way the theory is presented. After reading the pink letter chapter (and especially the pink letter itself) for the first time, I thought that was a part of the book I'd never read again – but now I have read it, lots of times, thanks to this and other threads.

What I have to add is just impressions I had and observations I made while reading this discussion.

1. The black crow thing is just fascinating. It would be a weird sort of coincidence if it turned out to be just a coincidence... But it is also the kind of clue that only a very dedicated reader can find. Well done!

2. Ramsay (“Ramsay”) calling Jon a bastard is the one thing I find very believable about the style of the letter, precisely because his bastard status is such a sore point with Ramsay – now that he is officially a Bolton, he would be just too happy to use the term to insult someone else with it. I can see him doing it. It does not mean this is proof the letter was written by Ramsay though. It can just be a clever touch used by someone who knows a few things about Ramsay and probably someone with a dark sense of humour.

What I've noticed is that Jon certainly reacts to the insult as he has never done in five books before.

I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

Jon has obviously never used the word as an insult before, and even a little while ago, he just shook off the insult when Cregan Karstark threw it in his face, but this time it seems to have hit home.

3. We don't know whether Mance can read and write or not, but I can imagine that he learned it in the NW as a child from Maester Aemon or from the maester in the Shadow Tower. He was a bright kid and he is also an inquisitive and imaginative guy. His interest in songs is also an interest in stories, so I can imagine that the chance to read stories of kings and heroes and conquerors and beautiful ladies would appeal to him. But I agree that this is only speculation until we have real proof.

4. The letter is absolutely written in a way to provoke Jon. After mentioning the six flayed spearwives, it goes on to demand Ramsay's bride back as well as four other women currently under Jon's roof and protection (Selyse, Shireen, Val and Melisandre) and the wildling babe. That's altogether six people (five women and a baby) to match the number of the spearwives – it is hardly difficult to surmise what “Ramsay” means to do with them. So the author is definitely someone who knows Jon's protective nature, and Mance is certainly one of those people, and so is Melisandre. Stannis may have noticed it, too... Theon will probably know that of him as well since he grew up with Jon, although they were never close. Ramsay is the least likely character to know or even understand such a thing.

5. One of the spearwives is described by Theon as “an older woman, deep-voiced, with grey streaks in her hair”. Are we absolutely sure that this one is not a man in disguise? If that were so, it would give the lie to “Ramsay's” letter at once. After the flaying, the real Ramsay wouldn't speak of six women.

I'm not sure how people who still think it was Ramsay

1. Think Mance got caught by him.

2. Ramsay somehow removes whatever Glamour or disguise Mance was wearing to find his true appearance.

3. He somehow unthinkably recognizes Mance for Mance (honestly who in WInterfell would even know who he is even if he was fully discovered?)

Its gota be Mance or Stannis, there the only ones who knew Mance was there, and both stand the most too gain. Mance gets his wildlings south of the Wall, and Stannis gets what he wanted the whole book, Jon in WInterfell

When does Stannis learn that Mance is in Winterfell? Mance doesn't introduce himself to Theon. He can give a description of “Abel” to Stannis, but is that enough for Stannis to recognize him with absolute certainty?

If he does recognize him, he will know that Melisandre must be involved because Mance could not have escaped from Castle Black without her consent.

[DigitalCount]

Unsure if this has been asked, but:

Why didn't Mance send a piece of skin with the letter, if it was so crucial? If he could copy Ramsey's style of handwriting so perfectly as to render it absolutely unnoticeable, knew exactly what buttons to push on Jon to provoke him out, and knew what demands to make that would be impossible to follow, why would he not go whole hog and flay a corpse to get a scrap of skin if he really wanted to make the masquerade airtight? Or better yet, flay an enemy who was still alive so as not to risk degradation or uneven curing of the skin?

And as for motive, it seems incomprehensible.

[redriver]

I have just found this thread and read all of it. I really like how the OP is based on research work and textual evidence and the way the theory is presented. After reading the pink letter chapter (and especially the pink letter itself) for the first time, I thought that was a part of the book I'd never read again – but now I have read it, lots of times, thanks to this and other threads.

What I have to add is just impressions I had and observations I made while reading this discussion.

1. The black crow thing is just fascinating. It would be a weird sort of coincidence if it turned out to be just a coincidence... But it is also the kind of clue that only a very dedicated reader can find. Well done!

2. Ramsay (“Ramsay”) calling Jon a bastard is the one thing I find very believable about the style of the letter, precisely because his bastard status is such a sore point with Ramsay – now that he is officially a Bolton, he would be just too happy to use the term to insult someone else with it. I can see him doing it. It does not mean this is proof the letter was written by Ramsay though. It can just be a clever touch used by someone who knows a few things about Ramsay and probably someone with a dark sense of humour.

What I've noticed is that Jon certainly reacts to the insult as he has never done in five books before.

I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

Jon has obviously never used the word as an insult before, and even a little while ago, he just shook off the insult when Cregan Karstark threw it in his face, but this time it seems to have hit home.

3. We don't know whether Mance can read and write or not, but I can imagine that he learned it in the NW as a child from Maester Aemon or from the maester in the Shadow Tower. He was a bright kid and he is also an inquisitive and imaginative guy. His interest in songs is also an interest in stories, so I can imagine that the chance to read stories of kings and heroes and conquerors and beautiful ladies would appeal to him. But I agree that this is only speculation until we have real proof.

4. The letter is absolutely written in a way to provoke Jon. After mentioning the six flayed spearwives, it goes on to demand Ramsay's bride back as well as four other women currently under Jon's roof and protection (Selyse, Shireen, Val and Melisandre) and the wildling babe. That's altogether six people (five women and a baby) to match the number of the spearwives – it is hardly difficult to surmise what “Ramsay” means to do with them. So the author is definitely someone who knows Jon's protective nature, and Mance is certainly one of those people, and so is Melisandre. Stannis may have noticed it, too... Theon will probably know that of him as well since he grew up with Jon, although they were never close. Ramsay is the least likely character to know or even understand such a thing.

5. One of the spearwives is described by Theon as “an older woman, deep-voiced, with grey streaks in her hair”. Are we absolutely sure that this one is not a man in disguise? If that were so, it would give the lie to “Ramsay's” letter at once. After the flaying, the real Ramsay wouldn't speak of six women.

When does Stannis learn that Mance is in Winterfell? Mance doesn't introduce himself to Theon. He can give a description of “Abel” to Stannis, but is that enough for Stannis to recognize him with absolute certainty?

If he does recognize him, he will know that Melisandre must be involved because Mance could not have escaped from Castle Black without her consent.

I'm very much of the persuasion that Myrtle is a man,The Liddle,to be specific.I've posted this in various Mance threads,but I will post it as a separate thread soon.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Unsure if this has been asked, but:

Why didn't Mance send a piece of skin with the letter, if it was so crucial? If he could copy Ramsey's style of handwriting so perfectly as to render it absolutely unnoticeable, knew exactly what buttons to push on Jon to provoke him out, and knew what demands to make that would be impossible to follow, why would he not go whole hog and flay a corpse to get a scrap of skin if he really wanted to make the masquerade airtight? Or better yet, flay an enemy who was still alive so as not to risk degradation or uneven curing of the skin?

And as for motive, it seems incomprehensible.

Obviously the skin wasn't all that crucial considering there wasn't any, yet Jon still thinks Ramsay is the author. The flap of skin is only mentioned in Asha's (Wayward Bride) PoV where it's stated by Ramsay that he's sent a "piece of a prince" to each recipient. Considering that no such flap of skin is mentioned in Jon's PoV it's possible that this is just bluster on Ramsay's part meant specifically for the Iron Born/Greyjoys, who as far as we know are the only recipients of a piece of skin. If this is the case there would be no reason for Mance or Jon to presume that skin would have to be included in a letter from Ramsay. This is really just an assumption made by the readers who have taken the inclusion of a piece of skin in 1 letter (the one to Asha) to be a norm despite the lack of reference to the inclusion of skin in the 2 other letters (the two to Jon).

As to motive Mance has quite a bit of motive to win the release of his son, Val, the remaining Free Folk held at the Wall; he also has reason to try and gain some valuable captives in the form of Stannis' wife, daughter, as well as Mel; some believe he is part of the GNC in which case they could be trying to get Jon to Winterfell to be named KitN as per Robb's will; there's the whole Bael the Bard aspect which could be motivating his desire to see a Stark returned to Winterfell; it's been argued that Mance is motivated by a desire to turn Jon from the Nights Watch either out of revenge as a means of undoing his honor and placing him in peril, or, out of a belief that Jon can accomplish more without the fetters of the Watch. Clearly if Mance is the author he's using deception as a means of manipulating Jon to accomplish his own objective which seem pretty obvious - survive, without assimilating into a culture of kneelers.

[dbunting]

Ok, i have read about 8 pages of this and couldn't do more.

I believe Ramsay did not write the letter. I believe Stannis did not write the letter. I tend to believe Mance authored the letter.

The black crow phrase seems carefully chosen as pointed out. I am not saying no one else could use it, but it seems chosen for a reason.

There are items that are in the letter that could only be known by some one recently at the wall, so it was written by that person, or information was gotten from them.

It is well documented that wildlings will not speak under torture.

It is well documented that flaying is the ultimate torture.

If the wildlings were flayed they may have broken. But if that was the case why didn't Ramsey send skin from Mance? We have seen that he does this, so why not this time?

There is the question of Reek, or my Reek. I believe the author of the letter truly doesn't know where Reek is or if he is even alive. Adding Reek to the letter could just be to lend credibility to the letter in case Reek shows up at the Wall. Reek- Theon would absolutely comfirm to Jon that is what Ramsey calls him.

The wax seal, why is it not done properly? Every other letter we have seen Ramsey send has been sealed properly, why change now? 1. He didn't send it. 2. He sent it and for some strange reason decided not to use his house seal, of which he has just been made a member of and we know how important that is to him.

IMO Mance is the author, motives to be made clear in the next book.

[bemused]

Julia H... since you've magically made this topic reappear...

I've spouted on the pink letter in so many places , I can't believe I missed his thread.. I've just cherry picked around the thread, so this is in reply to various points and posters along the way ...anyway here goes..

I think a plausible case can be made that the letter was originally penned by Mance , Ramsay or Stannis. I like Stannis , myself, but wouldn't be surprised if it was either of the others. However, I too believe it was intercepted and altered by the conspirators at the wall , including Thorne..

On a side note - that AFfC "mouse" chapter of Sam's is so brimming over with clues , possible future parallels and potential foreshadowing for Jon's storyline that it's really quite stunning. These include Val's interest in Jon and partial possible outcome , possible foreshadowing of the assassination attempt and yes, the introduction of the cell as a hideout for Thorne.

Apart from the cell itself as a hint ( Sam never mentions it to anyone ), Sam thinks..

I could hide, he told himself. I could hide in the vaults amongst the books. I could live down there with the mouse and sneak up at night to steal food. Crazed thoughts, he knew, as futile as they were desperate. The vaults were the first place they would look for him. The last place they would look for him was beyond the Wall, but that was even madder. The wildlings would catch me and kill me slowly. They might burn me alive, the way the red woman means to burn Mance Rayder.

.. Later, in ADWD, when Jon sends Thorne out, it's after "Mance" has been burned , and Thorne might reasonably have those same fears about the wildlings .. Beyond the wall would be the first place anyone would look for Thorne, while hiding in the vaults at CB would likely be the last.. and unlike Sam, Thorne would have Bowen & co. to help steal food and meet other needs. ..Thorne has been at the wall for years, but it's quite likely that he wouldn't know about the cell in the book vault. However, it's very likely that Bowen would, or could. It's apparent from Jon's inspection of the stores, that the stewards know the wormways like the backs of their hands, and are already using them regularly well before their brothers would find it necessary.

Setting that aside for now and looking at the Pink Letter... I assume that the letter was copied with various edits being made... but that wouldn't automatically lead to Rooseman's assessments by any means.

I think too much is made of Ramsay's handwriting and penchant for writing in blood. Because Ramsay signed both , we're led to assume that Jon's first letter is very similar to Asha's letter which later leads us to assume too much about the pink letter. Over time, I've come to think that each of the three letters is unique.

1. Besides the pink letter, Jon has recieved one other letter bearing Ramsay's signature. There can be a range of variations in a person's signature depending on the circumstances under which they made it.. As long as it was reasonably similar , Jon wouldn't question it. One other example wouldn't be enough to judge by. Unless it looked wildly different at first glance , he probably wouldn't even think to compare the two. ...I think it's far less reasonable to suggest that Mance ,who was present, but didn't have a close look at the first letter, could gain a clear mental image of Ramsay's signature, remember it and fashion a passable duplicate later. This doesn't seem plausible to me. ...And we should remember that any maester available to assist Mance at WF is not a Dreadfort maester and may not have seen any more examples of Ramsay's signature than Jon or Mance. (Stannis actually would have more help in this regard.. both Theon and Asha have seen Ramsay's signature and Stannis has the Dreadfort maester captive). But if , as I suppose, the letter was copied and altered at the wall , none of that would matter anyway.

2. When Jon notes the blood "ink" flaking away on the first letter , it's mentioned in direct relation to the signature.

Only the Dreadfort uses pink sealing wax. Jon ripped off his gauntlet, took the

letter, cracked the seal.When he saw the signature, he forgot the battering Rattleshirt had given him.

Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. Beneath Bolton’s signature, Lord Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own marks and seals. A cruder hand had drawn the giant of House Umber. “Might we know what it says, my lord?” asked Iron Emmett.

We don't know what substance the main body of the letter was written in. It isn't mentioned. It isn't mentioned when describing the other signatures either , but I believe it's safe to assume they didn't sign in blood. ... Jon doesn't hand the letter to anyone. (While he does, in the case of Tormund and the pink letter.)

I think there's good reason to doubt that the body of the first letter was written in blood ... Asha's letter was , in order to be more threatening. .. Jon's letter may contain a much more veiled threat in the bloody signature ( flaunting the fact that his sister is to be married to someone widely known to be cruel and bloodthirsty ) ...but I think the purpose of the first letter was primarily to tempt Stannis into leaving the wall.

" Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son’s wedding to …" - It wouldn't be Roose's style to write in blood, but he doesn't mind letting the world know that Ramsay is bloodthirsty, and everyone would know that the following deeds ... “Moat Cailin is taken. The flayed corpses of the ironmen have been nailed to posts along the kingsroad. ".. were Ramsay's work - otherwise, Roose wouldn't be back in the North. So it would suit Roose to let Ramsay sign in blood.

Roose wouldn't want to challenge Stannis directly and provoke him into a head on attack , either by writing the letter personally or risking that Ramsay might be too inflammatory , he'd just want to help lure Stannis into attacking the Dreadfort while Roose was apparently busy elsewhere.. At the same time ," Roose Bolton summons" is a third person voice and very impersonal. From Ramsay , we might expect, "My Lord father , Roose Bolton summons" ... or something like that. ..Why " his son's wedding" and not "my wedding" ?

Because it is so impersonal ( completely unemotional ), it seems like Jon is just reporting the gist of this letter. (I know I've been taking it that way until recently ).. But it may be that it's written very close in style to what Jon says. He may even be reading it out , verbatim.( As he does with the pink letter) If that's the case , it sounds like it was written by a maester. (Just the facts)

3. The conspirators have the personnel and the opportunity to be able to steal the first letter from Jon's quarters while he's away and produce the final version of the Pink Letter ... Mully to take the letter (possibly) and at a minimum, Bowen and Thorne (if he's there) are literate, possibly Wick, as Bowen's second, and Clydas ( if he's more than a forced letter carrier ).. ETA: They could also simply have copied the signature on the letter they recieved - whoever wrote it originally.

4. Many people have called Jon "Bastard" but none in quite the same sneering , goading way as Alliser Thorne ( except for Slynt , who we know was being led and fed what to think by Thorne) . Mance's use has simply been sarcastic, recalling that Jon gave his treatment as a bastard as his reason for joining Mance. Thorne's use has always been full of contempt , meant to wound and provoke... and the pink letter replicates Thorne's usage and tone very closely.

5. I think the conspirators, alone would actually want Jon to "come to Winterfell". No-one at or around WF could know that Jon might now be able muster up to 1000 fighters.. Stannis has written that he needs Jon at the wall , and I think Mance would feel the same. We know Mance's opinion of Marsh is low and he'd probably feel the free folk at the wall ( including the baby and Val ) would be safer under Jon's command. I don't think Ramsay ( or Roose ) would simply ask for ( or demand) the hostages , or give Jon advance warning . They'd just turn up and force the issue. (Hoping to eliminate one more potential Stark claimant in the process.)

6. Both Stannis and Mance would want to warn Jon if they knew Ramsay was on his way , so Jon could try to mount a defense. Both of them would no doubt agree with Jon's earlier assessment , that the best defense would be to surprise any attacker from the south en route.

All through Jon's thoughts during what we're given of his consderation and reading of the letter. there are things that can initially be construed as self accusation, which on closer inspection, are exact recollections of what other people have said.. an awareness of what accusations they're likely to make (e.g. What you propose is nothing less than treason). By the same token, this .

I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

..may be a direct reversal of and reply to what Jon takes to be the main import of the letter, the message needing immediate attention ... I (Ramsay) am coming for you , Bastard (Jon).

So. .. I think the "editors" would have added many "bastard"s , some threats , the demands for hostages other than "my bride" and "my Reek" ,but left in whatever they didn't understand as well as any revelations , such as Mance, the spearwives , Stannis' death, etc.

I didn't come to espouse this theory just because it's a different option , or just because it's possible . For some time I've been unable to think that Bowen & co were taken completely by surprise by the letter. The events of the assassination attempt make much more sense if Bowen & co had foreknowledge, than if they didn't. There've been plenty of hints at motives both political (Bowen) and personal (Thorne) for Jon to be killed on the Hardhome mission (Thorne has orchestrated at least 3 scenarios intended to bring about Jon's death - possibly more) .. Even Selyse ,probably through contact with Bowen, shows signs of at least having been groomed to see the probability that Jon would not survive as overwhelming.

The letter provides an opportunity to accomplish the same result without risking that more wildlings might be brought through the wall... and it's easier to sell the idea of Jon's "treason" if he marches south as opposed to north.( It must have been disconcerting to the conspirators , that although treason was floated in front of Flint and Norrey - over letting wildlings through- they didn't pick it up. They were more concerned with matters of logistics , and fairly accepting of Jon's proposals.)

If we ask ourselves who, among Jon's adversaries at the wall, has best demonstrated an ability to adapt to a changing situation ( obstacles) while continuing to aim for his goal .. it's Thorne , not Bowen. Jon has not been easily provoked for a long time , but the one person who has managed to do it (on more than one occasion) is Thorne ...and he's done it through a combination of insult, accusation and innuendo , much like what is found in the pink letter.

In spite of taking place in the midst of chaos, the assassination shows signs of planning. The attackers are not just stabbing willy-nilly. Each one strikes at a different target area .. any one of which is potentially lethal. There's a nifty parallel to be found in The Sworn Sword,

wherein a knight (Ser Bennis) schools non-fighters about these very targets in detail. Jon's attackers are non-fighters . Thorne is a knight.

... It seems they planned for each one to say "For the watch" as they struck (the better to sell the "treason" defense). ... It's not likely that this could all be sorted out in the few minutes they had between leaving the shieldhall and the attack ( And they would be trying to wrap their heads around the revelations in the letter, too). ... But there was easily time if the letter was recieved earlier. Wick, Lew and Alf were all off-page until the shieldhall ,while Bowen was only on-page intermittently... and of course , I think Thorne has been off-page but present for some time.

What turns the whole effort into something of a shambles is Wun Wun ( unforeseen interference) and the wildling response to Jon ( unintended consequences).

N.B. I buy redriver's ID of Myrtle/ the Liddle unreservedly ( though not all of what he sees as the implications , so far) and look forward to his new thread.

ETA: just for fun... It would be amusing if Stannis ,

who shows a willingness to sign his own name in blood

, wrote the letter , faked Ramsay's signature in blood only to have the conspirators duplicate it in ink.

[Julia H.]

Bemused...

I've cast a continuation spell on the rearead thread, too... I hope it will work. :)

I also went back to reread some of your earlier posts on this theory.

What strikes me now is the complex question of possible motivations and also who had access to various pieces of information.

I agree that Ramsay would not want Jon in Winterfell – at least not with an army; and if Jon does not have an army, it is unreasonable to suppose that he will just turn up there alone. (Although I do have a feeling that after receiving the pink letter Jon would have wanted to go there even if no wildlings had volunteered to follow him.) If Ramsay wants to attack Castle Black, he won't send a letter. Castle Black is indefensible from the south, which has been stressed several times in the novel. Still, why would Ramsay want to attack CB, especially while Stannis is outside Winterfell with an army – unless Ramsay knows that his bride was “stolen” at Jon's command? That would mean the wildlings were captured and they broke under torture...

Mance's motivation is the most obscure... Your suggestion is that the letter is a coded warning that either Ramsay or Bolton is coming to CB made indecipherable by the conspirators who altered it for their own purposes – is my interpretation correct?

It is true that Mance cannot know that Jon has a wildling army or that Tormund's wildlings have passed through the Wall. Nor does he know that Selyse and Shireen are in CB. Or he may know all of these if he is in communication with Melisandre, but I'm not convinced that Melisandre has a secret means of long-distance communication (other than visions, but that's not something she can control).

Actually if Mance doesn't know about Selyse and Shireen, then the real Ramsay wouldn't know about them either (not from Mance and the spearwives). That might give Jon pause in normal circumstances, but he is probably too shocked and too worried about Arya.

If Bowen Marsh wants to make Jon go south or at least announce his intention to go south, it means Marsh's motivation goes way beyond their differences concerning the management of affairs on the Wall. In this case, he may be consciously willing to sacrifice the Night's Watch to his purpose – the aftermath of the assassination (large-scale bloodshed) may well be the end of the Watch.

Thorne promised Jon he would return – as a wight if necessary, and it sounded every bit a threat. I think we can be fairly sure that we will hear from him again. I like the observation that Thorne knows how to provoke Jon, and Jon does react to the bastard label this time.

Still, the main provocation here is the flaying of women and the implicit threat concerning Arya. That is what makes Jon decide to ride south.

I wouldn't mind a complicated story behind the letter with multiple authors and several twists... (But not Clydas, please, I don't want him to betray Jon, it would be even worse than Mully being one of the conspirators.)

Redriver, I look forward to the Myrtle – Liddle thread, too.