Untangling Cersei's Small Council

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

The thing is, if GRRM wanted to bring Aurane back to Stannis, why take him to the Stepstones and establish him as a new pirate king?

he is conveniently on Dany´s way... and we know aurane was the first to hear rumours of dragons.. he later tricks Cersei into building him a fleet, and goes rogue at the first chance he has.

And house Velaryon is historcally just too close to house targaryen. I don´t see him siding with Stannis against any of the targaryen faccions.

besides Stannis has the manderly fleet.

[Mithras]

The thing is, if GRRM wanted to bring Aurane back to Stannis, why take him to the Stepstones and establish him as a new pirate king?

he is conveniently on Dany´s way... and we know aurane was the first to hear rumours of dragons.. he later tricks Cersei into building him a fleet, and goes rogue at the first chance he has.

And house Velaryon is historcally just too close to house targaryen. I don´t see him siding with Stannis against any of the targaryen faccions.

besides Stannis has the manderly fleet.

Stannis is currently an unknown. He has to shine again before Aurane decides to rejoin him.

[Hippocras]

The thing is, if GRRM wanted to bring Aurane back to Stannis, why take him to the Stepstones and establish him as a new pirate king?

he is conveniently on Dany´s way... and we know aurane was the first to hear rumours of dragons.. he later tricks Cersei into building him a fleet, and goes rogue at the first chance he has.

And house Velaryon is historcally just too close to house targaryen. I don´t see him siding with Stannis against any of the targaryen faccions.

besides Stannis has the manderly fleet.

It really depends just how badly he wants Dragonstone. The point made was that Stannis is the most likely to actually give it to him.

As for house Velaryon - we should not automatically assume his interests, as a bastard, align with his father's house. He has nothing to inherit from them.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

It really depends just how badly he wants Dragonstone. The point made was that Stannis is the most likely to actually give it to him.

As for house Velaryon - we should not automatically assume his interests, as a bastard, align with his father's house. He has nothing to inherit from them.

I dont know. Dany thinks she is barren, so why not give him the seat of her impossible heir?

[Hippocras]

I dont know. Dany thinks she is barren, so why not give him the seat of her impossible heir?

I suppose.

[Petyr Patter]

It really depends just how badly he wants Dragonstone. The point made was that Stannis is the most likely to actually give it to him.

As for house Velaryon - we should not automatically assume his interests, as a bastard, align with his father's house. He has nothing to inherit from them.

"Most likely" is still pretty far from anywhere near likely. Dragonstone is the ancient seat of Targaryens and still holds a great deal of prestige, to say nothing of the traditional vassal houses. Aurane Waters has done nothing for Stannis to earn such an honor except briefly captain a boat for him, serve his enemy, betray her, and live as a pirate. If Aurane were to show up at Eastwatch with his three big boats and offer their service for Dragonstone, Stannis would laugh him all the way to Braavos. If he gives Dragonstone away, it will be to a man who fought with him after the Blackwater. More likely, Stannis would want to keep Dragonstone in the royal house. Stannis was Robert's heir when he received the title of Lord of Dragonstone.

Still, if Aurane is willing to lower his expectations, there is only one pretender who has elevated a non-noble born sailor to lordship in exchange for service. It is easy to see Stannis giving Aurane a minor holding, perhaps more if Aurane does something truly heroic for him. But not Dragonstone.

[Hippocras]

"Most likely" is still pretty far from anywhere near likely. Dragonstone is the ancient seat of Targaryens and still holds a great deal of prestige, to say nothing of the traditional vassal houses. Aurane Waters has done nothing for Stannis to earn such an honor except briefly captain a boat for him, serve his enemy, betray her, and live as a pirate. If Aurane were to show up at Eastwatch with his three big boats and offer their service for Dragonstone, Stannis would laugh him all the way to Braavos. If he gives Dragonstone away, it will be to a man who fought with him after the Blackwater. More likely, Stannis would want to keep Dragonstone in the royal house. Stannis was Robert's heir when he received the title of Lord of Dragonstone.

Still, if Aurane is willing to lower his expectations, there is only one pretender who has elevated a non-noble born sailor to lordship in exchange for service. It is easy to see Stannis giving Aurane a minor holding, perhaps more if Aurane does something truly heroic for him. But not Dragonstone.

This is a pretty skewed spin IMO. Aurane hasn't done much for anyone so far. He has played his cards close. It would be hard to claim he truly served any of Stannis's enemies ever. He served on the Small Council only long enough to appoint admirals and steal ships.

If Stannis needs ships and Aurane brings them, he has a reasonable chance at Dragonstone because Stannis abhors the place and wants nothing to do with it. As long as Stannis has the Iron throne and eventually Storm's End, he would gladly give away Dragonstone to someone with the vaguest of claims who came with substantial help when he most needed it. He would say "good riddance".

[Petyr Patter]

This is a pretty skewed spin IMO. Aurane hasn't done much for anyone so far. He has played his cards close. It would be hard to claim he truly served any of Stannis's enemies ever. He served on the Small Council only long enough to appoint admirals and steal ships.

If Stannis needs ships and Aurane brings them, he has a reasonable chance at Dragonstone because Stannis abhors the place and wants nothing to do with it. As long as Stannis has the Iron throne and eventually Storm's End, he would gladly give away Dragonstone to someone with the vaguest of claims who came with substantial help when he most needed it. He would say "good riddance".

I'm not trying to skew anything. I'm not sure what you would call agreeing to serve on a Small Council run by Cersei except serving Cersei. He also was a key figure in the siege of Dragonstone which took it from his control to a Lannister/Tyrell force. The fact he betrayed her doesn't necessarily improve his worth for Stannis. Why would he believe Aurane will serve him better than he served Cersei? The moment things looked bad he bolted and became a pirate.

Plus, I need to repeat again that Dragonstone's historic value exceeds Stannis's own opinion of it, which is a fact that that Stannis himself is well aware. Sure he needs boats, but Dragonstone for three boats? You know who also has ships? Manderly. And Redwyne has even more. Rodrick the Reader also puts forward a large on his own. It wouldn't surprise me if a Braavosi merchant captain would be willing to fight a foreign war for an ideal naval base and the perks for being a Westerosi Lord. Stannis has options if he wants to give away Dragonstone, which I doubt.

He sees himself as an not just a genetic descendent but an intellectual heir to Aegon the Conqueror. One king, one kingdom. He does like that painted table. I'm pretty sure he'd rather Dragonstone stay a package deal with the royal family. Plus, Aurane Waters doesn't have a "vague claim." He has no claim. Maybe a hundred years ago or more a Targaryen princess wed a Lord of House Velaryn. That doesn't make him less a bastard or a winning boon to Stannis's cause.

[Monctonvike]

First:

interesting topic, well researched.

Second:

I always felt Qyburn was loyal to himself only - and his "research" specifically.

He's a "mad scientist" kinda guy, and Cersei is most likely the closest to a sympathetic patron he's had since getting kicked out of the Citadel.

You do make a good point that Qyburn gives bad advice regarding the Freys, but it's possible that it's simply bad advice because he doesn't know/care too much about the implications.

In the second instance he's fulfilling his role as Master of Whisperers, something he's much less capable at than his predecessor Varys - this could easily account for the level of "half-truths", a practice Varys often used for his own purposes - it's likely that some of Qyburn's sources are still in Varys' pocket after all. In the end it doesn't matter: Cersei dismisses it all (because she's nowhere near the capable ruler she considers herself to be).

:agree: I agree with this very much :)

Also kudos to you an an awesome thread/ subject well thought out. One of the best I have seen in awhile!

They all seem to be playing her for a fool ( save for Pycelle)

[Lost Melnibonean]

Could this be a hint that Aurane will join Aegon...

"The damned Volantenes are so eager to be rid of us they are dumping us ashore on any bit of land they see," said Franklyn Flowers. "I'll wager you that we've got lads scattered all over half the bloody Stepstones too."

The Griffin Reborn

Jon needs ships to gather his men off the stepstones. And three top of the line ships fully crewed would be a nice augmentation. Not sure that would be worth Dragonstone though.

[Maid So Fair]

Re Stannis/Aurane: If there is one claimaint that most decidedly does NOT need more ships, it's Stannis. Not only does he have Salladhor Saan, but he's also allied with the Iron Bank of Braavos. He's also the man who cut off Davos's fingers for smuggling food to him during a siege and thus saving his life - he's not going to look kindly on a thief, traitor and a pirate.

[Hippocras]

Plus, Aurane Waters doesn't have a "vague claim." He has no claim. Maybe a hundred years ago or more a Targaryen princess wed a Lord of House Velaryn. That doesn't make him less a bastard or a winning boon to Stannis's cause.

Stannis's own claim to the throne, and Robert's before him, comes through his Targaryen grandmother. The conquest argument is BS, because Robert was chosen, of the allies who fought Aerys, precisely because because he had the better claim - ie. Targ ancestry.

Velaryons are the family that inter-married most often over generations with the Targs. They have huge amounts of female line Targ blood which gives them as much of a claim of Dragonstone as Robert had of the Throne itself, via the female line.

As for your claims on Manderly - there is not the slightest guarantee at this point that Manderly will side with Stannis. He is as much of a wild card as Aurane. So your claim that Stannis has options is based on assumptions. We don't know if he will in the end. Manderly may have quite a different agenda.

Finally, Stannis has a very solid record of rewarding people who have served him well. Aurane, if he shows up with the Royal Fleet and maybe even a collection of Golden Company sellswords who were dropped on the Stepstones, will have done just that. Davos had no claim on anything and was made Lord of Rainwood. Contrary to what you say, a Velaryon bastard does have a vague and remote claim on Dragonstone, and may prove to have been loyal to Stannis all along, finally bringing him significant help in a moment of need.

[Hippocras]

Re Stannis/Aurane: If there is one claimaint that most decidedly does NOT need more ships, it's Stannis. Not only does he have Salladhor Saan, but he's also allied with the Iron Bank of Braavos. He's also the man who cut off Davos's fingers for smuggling food to him during a siege and thus saving his life - he's not going to look kindly on a thief, traitor and a pirate.

Saan abandoned him remember?

The IB backs him, yes, but that needs to be turned into ships which is not automatic. and as pointed out, believing Manderly will side with Stannis is pure assumption at this point. He might, or he might have a very different agenda.

Finally, there is no evidence at all that Aurane is actually a pirate. Just some rumours that are as unreliable as those about Dany. Stannis would certainly punnish Aurane for stealing, but that would not prevent him from rewarding his as well, as we saw with Davos.

[Mithras]

Re Stannis/Aurane: If there is one claimaint that most decidedly does NOT need more ships, it's Stannis. Not only does he have Salladhor Saan, but he's also allied with the Iron Bank of Braavos. He's also the man who cut off Davos's fingers for smuggling food to him during a siege and thus saving his life - he's not going to look kindly on a thief, traitor and a pirate.

He does not have Saan anymore. Saan dumped Davos and abandoned Stannis. He also does not have the support of the IB yet. It is not certain that Tycho will make it back to Braavos.

[Maid So Fair]

Saan abandoned him remember?

The IB backs him, yes, but that needs to be turned into ships which is. ot automatic.

Finally, there is no evidence at all that Aurane is actually a pirate. Just some rumours that are as unreliable as those about Dany. Stannis would certainly punnish Aurane for stealing, but that would not prevent him from rewarding his as well, as we saw with Davos.

IIRC he abandoned him because Stannis couldn't pay up - his loan from the IB has solved that problem.

Even if Stannis would be tempted to reward a man like Aurane, which is unlikely (he's much more likely to seize the ships as just his property anyway as the One True King of Westeros ), why would be reward him so handsomely? He only gave Davos a knighthood for a much bigger and more important service. He's not going to give Aurane Dragonstone for just showing up with three ships.

[Mal Malenkirk]

The big picture looks like this:

Queen Regent - Queen Cersei Lannister - Dumb

Hand of the King - Ser Harys Swyft - Dumber

Grand Maester - Pycelle - The one and only Lannister pet

Master of Coin and Lord Treasurer - Lord Gyles Rosby - Dead

Master of Laws and Justiciar - Lord Orton Merryweather - Team fAegon (we still have friends in the Reach)

Master of Ships and Grand Admiral - Aurane Waters - not in the Team fAegon nor in team Doran, he has his own mind (perhaps he is getting prepared for Dany)

Master of Whisperers - Qyburn - This one is a mystery. Certainly not in Team Lannister.

That's interesting and well thought out.

I only disagree about Qyburn. He really serves Cersei, IMO. His advice might not always be sound, but so what? The guy is Dr Franknestein, his primary specialty is not political advice, where would he have developped the expertise? With Vargo Hoat?

Why I believe he is what he seems is that his trajectory is too random to be that of a planted spy. Expelled from the citadel, he worked with the brave companion. Because Jaime got his hand chopped, Roose had him care for the injury and accompany to King's Landing and further impredictible development got him on the council. And at no step is he the primary agent of his change in position. Vargo decided to chop Jaime's hand. Roose decided to send him to King's Landing. Oberyn used a wildly rare poison that gave Qyburn a chance to consult and interact with Cersei. Jaime decided to free Tyrion. Tyrion decided to murder Tywin. Without these events that he did not create or control, he does not rise. It's too random for a spy.

Who would have recruited and developped Qyburn as a spy, thinking that this dishonoured maester serving the worst scum in Westeros was going to reach the small council (or anything of importance)? So I don't think he is a spy. But if he is, the one who controls him has already won the game of throne on account of being omniscient.

[Hippocras]

^It was Qyburn's choice to go to KL, not Roose's. Qyburn pretended Jamie's hand needed more care but we actually saw it was pretty much healed by then and anyone could have tended to it.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think we can assume that Aurane still wants Dragonstone. He has betrayed the Iron Throne and stolen its ships. That is a vile crime, and he can only reenter society if he joins one of the pretenders fighting against King Tommen. But Aegon VI will never grant him Dragonstone, that is going to Aegon's heir, whoever that will be (hopefully, in his opinion, his son).

But he certainly would get some rewards, if his ships helped get the Golden Company across the Blackwater.

And Stannis has also no reason to give Dragonstone to Aurane, even if he should win the Iron Throne.

Considering that Aurane has not yet joined Aegon, and has set himself up as a pirate-king, I'd not be surprised if he ends up joining Euron.

[Hippocras]

Did anyone pick up on my suggestion above that Aurane might indeed pick up the Golden Company people who ended up on the Stepstones, but he might bring them to Stannis, not Aegon?

Aegon is pretending to be a Targ. The Golden Company has always fought for Targ bastards, but not Targs. So the Golden Company might not be too happy about fighting for Aegon unless they are made aware he is actually a Blackfyre or Bittersteel descendant of some sort.

This may happen too late though to reach the ones on the Stepstones. Those ones might decide that Aurane is as good of a Targish bastard as any to fight under. And Aurane may in fact be somwhat loyal to Stannis. It can't be ruled out. Alternately he may have some deal with Littlefinger.

So lets say he brings with him, to whoever he joins, not just ships but a large chunk of the Golden Company and forces and/or supplies from the Vale? This is not implausible given that Littlefinger could not care less about birthright and would have no qualms making deals with supposed pirates.

There are really some substantial potential ways he could help whatever cause he choses to help.

With that in mind it is really just about figuring out if he intends to help anyone at all or if he serves himself. He is quite hard to read, but actual loyalty to Stannis throughout is in fact one reasonable option. He might have learned from Davos's knighthood long ago and decided to serve Stannis in this risky way from the beginning.

Otherwise, he might have a deal with Littlefinger that involves some candidate other than Stannis also. But Dany and Aegon would be bad bets if he wants Dragonstone. Euron is an interesting idea and more likely to give him Dragonstone, but it is hard to see why Aurane would chose to back Euron. Euron is pure evil. Aurane is just an opportunist.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think Aurane joining Euron should get a little more attention based simply off the logistics of the Ironborn becoming the huge threat they are being made out to be. The plot seems to demand that the Redwyn fleet be destroyed, but there doesn't seem to be any really likely way to make this happen.