The Ukraine II: Oof, яight in the bяeadbasket!

[sleath56]

Pictures:
Map of territory given to Ukraine over the centuries.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhqX1pYIUAA-TKf.jpg:large

Map of troop movement in Crimea as of March 1/2014 16:00 GMT+1.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gNS2J2kt0nQ/UxImUT1nPLI/AAAAAAAAA1I/Sq8_diFLnOw/s1600/CRIMEA.png

[snake]

Do they really want or care about any of that though? What is that assumption based on?

There's no reason Russia won't just decide to take this further and gobble up some eastern Ukraine as well.

Of course they care. Stability is Putins motto. And I'm only going on what I read and the statements coming out of the Kremlin. Plus, while Russia likes it's sphere of influence they have been careful and about getting overly involved in the squabbles of other nations. Sure they hammered Georgia but Georgia attacked Russian troops. They're foolish mistake.

[Fez]

So more "empty words" by your definition.

Yeah, but words that always empty and everyone knows it; not words that can have meaning behind them in other circumstances.

[williamjm]

The majority of the Crimea is ethnic Russian, and much of Eastern Ukraine is too

Is this true? I don't know much about Ukrainian demographics, but from what I've read Crimea is the only region with a majority Russian population (and even there they're only about 60% of the population).

Turkey is upsetting the applecart here, because if I recall correctly they ARE part of Nato, although it beats me why Nato allowed them in.

You really can't imagine why Cold War NATO might have thought having a land border with the southern Soviet Union and control of the entrance to the Black Sea within a NATO country might be a bit beneficial?

Damn it, i've been staring at that for a full minute, trying to come up with a DS9 joke, and i've got nothing.

The whole "set up a puppet state pretending that you're just looking after the population's best interests" scenario seems more like Dominion tactics than Romulans.

Of course they care. Stability is Putins motto. And I'm only going on what I read and the statements coming out of the Kremlin.

I think some people are underestimating how hard it would be for the Russians to invade Ukraine. Of course they would probably win, but it would still be painful for them if the Ukrainians decide to resist them, but just because you can win a war doesn't mean that it's going to be a pleasant experience for the winners, look how painful the Chechen war was for Russia even if they were victorious and Ukraine is orders of magnitudes larger.

[Fez]

I think some people are underestimating how hard it would be for the Russians to invade Ukraine. Of course they would probably win, but it would still be painful for them if the Ukrainians decide to resist them, but just because you can win a war doesn't mean that it's going to be a pleasant experience for the winners, look how painful the Chechen war was for Russia even if they were victorious and Ukraine is orders of magnitudes larger.

Speaking of, here's a chart that The Guardian linked to, comparing both countries' economies and militaries. Russia's military is a lot bigger, but Ukraine definitely has enough forces to put up a fight; particularly since its not like Russia would be putting its entire force into Ukraine.

[Lummel]

...I think some people are underestimating how hard it would be for the Russians to invade Ukraine. Of course they would probably win, but it would still be painful for them if the Ukrainians decide to resist them, but just because you can win a war doesn't mean that it's going to be a pleasant experience for the winners, look how painful the Chechen war was for Russia even if they were victorious and Ukraine is orders of magnitudes larger.

and it took two wars in Chechnia to achieve the present level of devastation, it wasn't an easy conquest.

[snake]

I like reading RT.com. Very biased but they do give some quotes from Russian officials.

From Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Federation Council,

"Russia did not interfere in the situation in Ukraine for a very long time and showed restraint, assuming that the Western states, which became backers of the agreements, would see that strict compliance with the deal is observed"

"Not seeing an adequate reaction from the West, we could no longer maintain status quo"

[sToNED_CAT]

I think some people are underestimating how hard it would be for the Russians to invade Ukraine. Of course they would probably win, but it would still be painful for them if the Ukrainians decide to resist them, but just because you can win a war doesn't mean that it's going to be a pleasant experience for the winners, look how painful the Chechen war was for Russia even if they were victorious and Ukraine is orders of magnitudes larger.

Not if half of Ukraine army and population joins them. And the problem in Chechenya was guerilla war and terrorism. Somehow I don't think Ukrainians would go that route.

[sToNED_CAT]

Not the Balkans, the Baltic states. They also have huge Russian minorities as a result of the Communist insanities of the last century.

Baltic states are part of NATO, Ukraine isn't.

[Datepalm]

Ukrainian nationalism has a long, proud and extremely gory tradition of guerrilla war, terrorism and ethnic cleansing to its name. There is someone in a suburb of Lvov gleefully planning to fall back into the forests as we speak.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I doubt anyone is gleefully planning for guerilla warfare. That generally means you've lost the first fight.

[Datepalm]

I feel like you have a dodgy grasp of how romantic nationalism works in people's heads.

[sToNED_CAT]

Ukrainian nationalism has a long, proud and extremely gory tradition of guerrilla war, terrorism and ethnic cleansing to its name. There is someone in a suburb of Lvov gleefully planning to fall back into the forests as we speak.

The point is, if Russian take just Russian and sympathetic provinces and don't go further, who will wage guerilla war against them? You need to have majority of population opposing occupying force for that. Soldiers (or people generally) who do something like this http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/ won't be running to the forest, and if they will it would be to drag those guerilla fighters out of there.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

The point is, if Russian take just Russian and sympathetic provinces and don't go further, who will wage guerilla war against them? You need to have majority of population opposing occupying force for that. Soldiers (or people generally) who do something like this http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/ won't be running to the forest, and if they will it would be to drag those guerilla fighters out of there.

I think history has shown that even if a majority of a region wants to be part of one country, there can still be quite a bit of violence if the minority feels strong enough.

[Linsox]

Apologies for taking a slightly lighter tone for a moment, but to me the Russians are rather similar to the fictional Romulan Empire.

Utterly driven by self interest, masters of Machiavellian intrigue and propaganda, and with a nose that can smell weakness like a bloodhound.

And always ready to exploit said weakness by backing their gambits with overwhelming force, if necessary.

No room for idealistic claptrap. Just sheer pragmatic self interest at play.

In the past they have had some buffoons in charge, but when you have a master player like Putin pulling the strings, they are a force to be reckoned with.

Damn it, i've been staring at that for a full minute, trying to come up with a DS9 joke, and i've got nothing.

American foreign policy resembles a drunken Klingon. You're welcome.

[sleath56]

UPDATE:

Defection to Russia?

Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.

There has been conflicting information on where exactly the vessel is, but a Russian senator has confirmed to Izvestia daily that the frigate defected to the Russian side.

“Ukraine’s Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew’s flag,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia daily.

He said the flagship is on its way back to the Black Sea after drills in the Mediterranean. “The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Viktor Yanukovich,” he added.

The move comes after the Navy command resigned Friday. Self-appointed President Aleksandr Turchinov made Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky the new Navy Chief, a statement published on the President’s website Saturday said.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Prime Minister Ukraine’s self-imposed government, had earlier asked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to let the frigate through the Bosporus strait, according to the Kiev Times. The ship captain and the head of Ukraine’s contingent in the operation, Rear Admiral Andrey Tarasov disobeyed orders from Kiev.

The Hetman Sahaidachny returns to Sevastopol, Crimea after taking part in a joint counter-piracy operation with NATO and the EU off the Horn of Africa, reported UNN on Friday, citing Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. On February 26, after crossing the Suez Canal, the ship entered the Mediterranean Sea and was expected to be in Sevastopol in early March.

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

According to RT, the state-run Russian news network, the flagship has defected to Russia.

I will keep you informed of any Ukrainian confirmations if this is true or not.

[sleath56]

UPDATE:

Is Crimea just the appetizer? Kremlin confirms Russia's ability to expand out of Crimea possible.

The Kremlin website said Putin told Obama that Russian troops may send its troops not only to Crimea but all of predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine due to “the existence of real threats” to Russian citizens in Ukrainian territory.

“Vladimir Putin emphasized that, in the case of a further spread in violence in eastern regions and Crimea, Russia maintains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population that lives there,” the statement on the website said.

Pro-Russian protests were reported Saturday in the eastern cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk and the southern port of Odesa. In Kharkiv, 97 people were injured in clashes between pro-Russia demonstrators who flushed supporters of the new Ukrainian government out of the regional government building and hoisted the Russian flag on top of it, according to the Interfax news agency.

Trenin, of Moscow’s Carnegie office, said that Putin could be seeking to “include Crimea within the Russian Federation and eastern and southern regions of Ukraine forming a separate entity integrated with Russia economically and aligned with it politically.”

“It is not clear at this point whether Kyiv will be left to build a rump Ukraine with the western regions or whether it will be swayed to join the eastern regions,” he wrote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/pro-russian-leader-of-ukraines-crimea-claims-control-of-military-police/article17185557/?page=3

Interesting. That the Kremlin has posted this, tells us they indeed may not intend to settle just for Crimea .

[Free Northman Reborn]

UPDATE:

According to RT, the state-run Russian news network, the flagship has defected to Russia.

I will keep you informed of any Ukrainian confirmations if this is true or not.

Oh boy, now things are getting interesting.

It bears remembering that this Yanukovich fellow was democratically elected. So a large part of the country obviously don't agree with the new guys who are in office. A much larger part than just the 20% Russian population of the Ukraine as a whole.

A lot of the non-Russian citizens of Ukraine also believe that they are better of with close ties to Russia, given their strong economic links to Russia.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

How frightenig should this be for Post-Soviet states with large Russian minorities, like the Baltics? Heck, Poland has a non-trivial Russian minority, doesn't it? This "protect" Russians in other nations tack is fairly reminisant of the Nazis' attitude toward Austria and the Sudetenland. This is bad any way it falls out.

[Shryke]

Oh boy, now things are getting interesting.

It bears remembering that this Yanukovich fellow was democratically elected. So a large part of the country obviously don't agree with the new guys who are in office. A much larger part than just the 20% Russian population of the Ukraine as a whole.

A lot of the non-Russian citizens of Ukraine also believe that they are better of with close ties to Russia, given their strong economic links to Russia.

Yanukovich was also impeached. Basing an assessment of his popularity on an almost 4 year old election is not a good idea.