The Ukraine II: Oof, яight in the bяeadbasket!

[Horza]

Ukrainian units in Crimea: outnumbered, outgunned, outmanoeuvred

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Ukrainian nationalism has a long, proud and extremely gory tradition of guerrilla war, terrorism and ethnic cleansing to its name. There is someone in a suburb of Lvov gleefully planning to fall back into the forests as we speak.

And how:

Russians and other enslaved peoples of Russia! Now your fate is being decided in Ukraine. We have fought not only for our freedom, but yours! Now you also have a chance to fight for your freedom against the Chekist [KGB] regime of Putin.

Hold mass actions of protest! Create partisan divisions! Block the roads. Destroy the military infrastructure. Support us, and we will support you! There is NO other way!

Don’t believe the Putin Goebbels! We are not Russophobes. We are not agents of the USA. We are soldiers of freedom!”

Central Headquarters
Right Sector

and as if that wasn't enough these morons also called on Doku Umarov to join forces with them.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Snopes law? So Ukraine's already lost?

[sleath56]

Timothy Snyder, the author of Bloodlands, also has a piece in New Republic here.

We cannot look at it as just East vs. West. There are other countries not directly involved and we have to consider their reactions.

The EU's biggest trading partner is China, but we have to remember that biggest trading partner =/= biggest ally. The Chinese share very close relations to the Russians and will not allow such a powerful ally independent of Western influence to fall.

If sanctions are held to Russian, they will simply direct their oil lines to the Chinese who will support them and also gain all of the Eurasian gas reserves.

No, hopes of EU putting on a economic sanction of any sort on Russia is a pipe dream, especially with such economic stress in Europe.

The People's Daily, the Communist Party supported newspaper has published an article on Ukraine for those wondering about China's stance so far.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA1Q06J20140227?irpc=932

[slim da reaper]

Yanukovich was also impeached. Basing an assessment of his popularity on an almost 4 year old election is not a good idea.

What did he say to get elected? The impeachment which is as rare as anything in 'honest' UK, heck I can't even think who has ever been impeached says a lot for out glorious democracy. In the US impeachment is over inappropriate i.e bullshit acts like cheating on your partner (I know it was for perjury and obstruction of justice but the criminal act was a bullshit one.) Zippergate lol.

[Horza]

Ukraine calls up military reserves, moving to full combat readiness.

The big split in opinion on a Russian invasion hinges on where people think Putin's head is at. Is he a pragmatist looking to gain as much advantage for the least risk or are his dreams of Russian imperium and fears of Western intrigue potent enough to tip over any risk/reward calculus?

[Lummel]

Gallotti's point about the troop numbers is good. 2000ish are too few to maintain a constant military presence over time - it doesn't allow for leave or injury. For a permanent presence the Russians would have to substantially increase that number and bring in the necessary support infrastructure.

I suppose with Ioffe it is a question of whether you think that Moscow want to be in a position to bully and potentially intervene 'to protect its "interests"' among its near neighbours or if it wants territorial annexations. Annexations seem a bit 19th century to me and once you've occupied or swallowed up neighbouring Russian majority regions then you've incorporated the testicles which you could have otherwise have squeezed. Doesn't Russia have enough decayed infrastructure, declining rural provinces, pensioners and industries dependent on limited markets of its own or does Moscow have an insatiable appetite for junk assets?

The risk I imagine is things getting out of hand on the ground.

[Werthead]

Forbes's analysis here is interesting.

Something that has gone under-reported: Obama interrupted a meeting between Biden and Georgian Prime Minister Garibashvili and expressed American support for Georgia's eventual move to join NATO.

That's a significant shot across Putin's bows, though clearly not a vital one right now. The US has been lukewarm on Georgia joining NATO since the war, so this change of heart is designed to send a message.

This is insane. It's crazy how peaceful protests escalated all the way to a major world crisis. It just goes to show that history will always repeat itself. While I am against military intervention, I feel that if Putin isn't stopped what's to stop him from going after the rest of the Baltic states? Remember WWII people, appeasement doesn't work!

The Baltic States are members of NATO. An attack on any one member of the alliance is an attack on all of them. Or, to invade Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia, Russia would be effectively declaring war on the United States, Germany, France, Turkey, UK, Italy etc. It's not going to do that, ever, as in a conventional shooting war Russia loses (though probably only after initial early successes). Nukes are the only real force-leveller that Russia has. Its other technology looks good on paper, but in practice is of doubtful quality (Georgia, not exactly a military powerhouse, shot down almost 20 Russian aircraft in just a few days during the 2008 crisis, which is more aircraft lost to enemy fire than the USA has suffered in 35 years). It'll never come to it, of course, as even Putin is not that stupid.

Why should the US care if Russia takes over Ukraine? It doesn't affect US interests. Let Putin do what he likes.

Ukraine is a future potential member of NATO, which increases American military capabilities worldwide and in the region. Ukraine also acts as an effective buffer between Russia and NATO members and EU allies in Eastern Europe. It's also extremely destabilising, and would likely rise to increased tensions between Europe and Russia which could lead to conflict down the line.

Unfortunately it seems internet and telephone was cut off from the Crimean island.

Putin has turned the Crimea into an island? Did he get the Children of the Forest to drown the neck of the peninsula?

[broken one]

The idea of a war with Russia is terrifying, but at the same time I wish someone would kick their shit.

The nuclear razor prevents everyone from doing anything. As long as gas flows west thru the pipes nothing will change.

[Talleyrand]

My passports up for renewal in a couple months and I can't be arsed for it so fuck it lets give WW3 a go

[Datepalm]

If Russia conquers Eastern Ukraine, I wonder if I can get Russian citizenship? I don't know what i'd do with it, but it's a question.

[Lummel]

If Russia conquers Eastern Ukraine, I wonder if I can get Russian citizenship? I don't know what i'd do with it, but it's a question.

I hear that Russian citizenship is very attractive to ageing French film stars who wish to become tax exiles. There's got to be a way to leverage that Madame de Datepalm.

[Datepalm]

Exile would suit me.

[Werthead]

The BBC are reporting a surprisingly polite stand-off at a Ukrainian army base near Simferopol. Russian troops amassed outside the base and the Ukrainians got into their tanks. There was a brief stand-off, followed by a meeting and the Russians agreeing to do nothing more if the lead tank moved slightly so its gun was no longer pointing at them.

Hopefully more of that sort of thing, and no shooting.

[The Monkey]

How important is Crimea to Ukraine? Does it contain natural resources, or is it's value more of a strategic value, as a port on the Black Sea? Because if they're willing to give up Crimea, there's a big chance they can avoid an all-out war with Russia. There has been much speculation that Putin would want to have all of eastern Ukraine as well, but seeing as how ethnic Russians are in a minority in those regions, he would have to expect a much fiercer partisan resistance there than they face in Crimea.

I highly doubt that the Russians want a war if they can gain some advantages "peacefully". Sure, Russian would inevitability defeat Ukraine, but what prize are they willing to pay? 50,000 dead Russian soldiers in exchange for the eastern half of Ukraine? I wonder if Putin thinks it's worth it.

[Datepalm]

It's mostly known for military bases and tourism.

[Werthead]

Russia lost about 13,000 lives in Chechnya, and you'd have to assume that a Ukrainian conflict would be more costly. The question is whether Putin regards that as acceptable or not, and what impact that would have at home. There is a small but growing dissident movement against Putin's rule as well, and avoiding inflaming that to much larger levels has to be a priority for him.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Have the armed men who seized that airport been confirmed as Russian soldiers or not?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Sleath,

That article calling on the west to throw off "cold war shackles" was rife with irony as the issue with Ukraine is about much more that mere "Russia is bad" Cold War style politics (thus making the gross oversimplification implied in the article seem a lot like the gross oversimplifications of cold war style reporting). The question in Ukraine is wether the world should stand by and allow a large nuclear armed Nation-State to threaten, bully, then outright force its smaller non-nuclear neighbor to surrender territory to the larger neighbor. As others have noted that's a very 19th century attitude and opposing that kind of imperial action has nothing to do with "cold-war shakles".

I'm also surprised because I thought the Russians and Chinese didn't get along because of their own border problems. Souldn't Russian imperialist moves make them nervous about their own borders or is this just a reminder that having nukes and strong delivery systems means never having to say you're sorry?

[The Marquis de Leech]

The Baltic States are members of NATO. An attack on any one member of the alliance is an attack on all of them.

In theory, yes. In practice it'd be a nightmarish game of chicken, where Moscow gambles that Washington, London, et al wouldn't start a Third World War over an invasion of Estonia. Naked realism trumps treaty obligations in such situations.

[Ser Reptitious]

Generally it seems to me that the word "appeasement" and analogies to the 1938 Munich conference get thrown around far too often, but this whole debate about whether the Ukraine should give up the Crimea in order to maintain peace with Russia is downright chilling in its similarity, imo.