Shryke Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How frightenig should this be for Post-Soviet states with large Russian minorities, like the Baltics? Heck, Poland has a non-trivial Russian minority, doesn't it? This "protect" Russians in other nations tack is fairly reminisant of the Nazis' attitude toward Austria and the Sudetenland. This is bad any way it falls out. It does indeed seem to be scaring alot of their neighbours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A quick wiki check suggests Latvia has the largest Russian population with 34%. I was wrong about Poland their last census had only about 11,000 Russians in Poland.Will NATO act premetively to reinforce the Baltics to forstall a Russian move like this one in Ukraine. What's frightening is that we all figured Georgia was a one time event in response, in part, to Western recognition of Kosovo's independence from Serbia. This seems like a long term foreign policy shift to try to expand Russia's bondaries and assert Hegemony over former Soviet States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jurble Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Reddit claims this Facebook post is news of a Ukrainian draft or a mobilization. Can someone translate or confirm or say what I'm looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring Bass Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This sounds like South Ossetia and Abkazia all over again. Once they get the "provocation" they need, the Russian military will swoop in and grab much of eastern and southern Ukraine (where the large Russian minorities and Russian-speaking populations like), and then sit on them once things settle down. They might be nominally "independent" while being recognized by no one except Russia, but Russia will control them and prop them up with funding if necessary. I expect they'll also take Kiev, just to get the symbolic re-installation of Yanukovych. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleath56 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UPDATE:The escalation continues...Canada is recalling its ambassador to Russia for consultations about the crisis in Ukraine and is freezing preparations to take part in the Group of Eight summit in Sochi, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Saturday.Harper, who talked earlier in the day with U.S. President Barack Obama, said Canada condemned Russia's intervention in Ukraine in the strongest possible terms."Canada has suspended its engagement in preparations for the G-8 Summit, currently planned for Sochi, and the Canadian ambassador in Moscow is being recalled for consultations," Harper said in a statement issued after an emergency cabinet meeting.http://news.yahoo.com/canada-says-recalling-ambassador-russia-consultations-003958694--business.htmlCanada has taken action to Russia's movements in the Crimea by recalling their ambassador to Russia.It should be note that Canada has the third largest population of ethnic Ukrainians aside from Russia and Ukraine itself.The Duma, Russia's parliament, has proposed to Putin to withdraw the ambassador to the United States earlier today to inconclusive results.It seems things are starting to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkaggCannibal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How frightenig should this be for Post-Soviet states with large Russian minorities, like the Baltics? Heck, Poland has a non-trivial Russian minority, doesn't it? This "protect" Russians in other nations tack is fairly reminisant of the Nazis' attitude toward Austria and the Sudetenland. This is bad any way it falls out. The Baltics are part of the EU and invading them would trigger a backlash which Russia wouldn't be able to handle. Every EU-country is obliged to help another EU-country in such a matter, so really there is no risk. Crimea is something totally different, with all the Russians in it, their own little revolution of independence and asking Russia for help... It really isn't comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinsdale! Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How frightenig should this be for Post-Soviet states with large Russian minorities, like the Baltics? Heck, Poland has a non-trivial Russian minority, doesn't it? This "protect" Russians in other nations tack is fairly reminisant of the Nazis' attitude toward Austria and the Sudetenland. This is bad any way it falls out. Very frightening. Poland has a very long history of conflict with Russia. If a war starts here, than a worse war will follow. The Crimea is not South Ossetia. The only nation that really cared about that were the Turks, and they care far more about the Crimean Tartars. Russian borders extending marginally into the Caucasus were not a big concern for Poland and the Baltic States. Russia expanding west is. But Eastern Ukraine is not the Crimea. Eastern Ukraine is full of Ukrainians who happen to speak Russian. Crimea was taken from the Ottomans in 1800 and populated with Russians. There have never been Ukrainians living there. It was never a part of Kievan Rus. It is only in Ukraine because of the whim of Khruschev. I do not think Russia will move into East Ukraine, as it will be difficult to hold and truly inflame the rest of Eastern Europe into militarization and eventual war. I think the Russians want a negotiated settlement, but they would like to do so from a position of strength. Putin is also trying to make up for the failure of his Ukraine policy over the last several months. No doubt his supporters are not thrilled about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How frightenig should this be for Post-Soviet states with large Russian minorities, like the Baltics?This depends on how much faith one has in NATO. Ukraine is not a member so while Western countries might boycott the G8 meeting in Sochi or impose sanctions, they are highly unlikely to actually fight for it. On the other hand, all of the Baltic states as well as Poland are NATO members and thus, in theory, all NATO countries would be obliged to come to their defense. Would they actually do it? I don't know. I live in the US and I've visited a lot of the European countries that would be expected to contribute the most (the UK, France, Italy, Germany) and none of these countries strike me as particularly eager for this kind of war. It wouldn't be like fighting Afghanistan or Iraq where we bomb them at will and their retaliation is limited to the forces we sent there. Russia has the means to attack NATO bases near enough to reach it as well as the cities of many NATO states. And of course there's always the apocalyptic specter of WWIII. All of that said, it is highly unlikely that Russia will make a play for the Baltic states. The first reason is that I doubt they are interested in risking the above mentioned war either. The second is that the potential gains are much lower. The population of Estonia is about 1 million people, Latvia has 2 million and Lithuania 3 million. Ukraine has 45 million (2 million in Crimea alone) and a non-trivial amount of heavy industry in the pro-Russian regions. Thus, the Baltics would be a game with much higher risk for much lower winnings -- I don't thin Russia will play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It bears remembering that this Yanukovich fellow was democratically elected. So a large part of the country obviously don't agree with the new guys who are in office. A much larger part than just the 20% Russian population of the Ukraine as a whole. A lot of the non-Russian citizens of Ukraine also believe that they are better of with close ties to Russia, given their strong economic links to Russia.I think it's a bit of a stretch to say that just because someone voted for Yanukovich or feels more affinity with Russia than the EU that they're automatically going to welcome a Russian invasion of their country with open arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gneisenau Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Unfortunately it seems internet and telephone was cut off from the Crimean island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghjhero Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Reddit claims this Facebook post is news of a Ukrainian draft or a mobilization. Can someone translate or confirm or say what I'm looking at?As far as I Google translate can help yes that does seem to be what it's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Putin doesn't appear to be letting uphttps://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/439947534077661184@KevinRothrockhttp://gordonua.com/news/politics/Na-granice-u-propusknogo-punkta-Senkovka-skoplenie-rossiyskoy-tehniki--12342.html … Ukrainian reports that Russian troops amassing at border near Senkovka, 143 miles outside Kiev pic.twitter.com/aTcxamRnZW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleath56 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Putin doesn't appear to be letting up https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/439947534077661184Don't worry, the Russian military has responded and says it's just their annual military wilderness camping trip. ;) UkraineBreaking @UkraineBreaking 2m Reports that Russian troops are amassing at the border near Senkovka, Ukraine. Russian military says it is just part of training exercises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghjhero Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Don't worry, the Russian military has responded and says it's just their annual military wilderness camping trip. ;)"Training Excerises" heh heh. Why does he bother concealing it anymore? We all know what he's really doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is Putin going to make a play for all of Ukraine and claim he's restoring the proper government? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is Putin going to make a play for all of Ukraine and claim he's restoring the proper government?I think its possible that he could try to restore Yanukovich. If successful he would be even more of a Russian puppet than before. It would also not be surprising for him to scede significant portions of the Ukraine in "gratitude". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleath56 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think its possible that he could try to restore Yanukovich. If successful he would be even more of a Russian puppet than before. It would also not be surprising for him to scede significant portions of the Ukraine in "gratitude".Yanukovich is unlikely to be in power again or at least not for a significant time from my analysis.While restoring Yanukovich would bring credibility to the Russians as restoring the democratically-elected leader,there is no love lost between Yanukovich and Putin.Yanukovich is also universally hated in Ukraine for his corruption, and a great many ethnic Russians in the East protested alongside the protesets until the protests became violent and more significantly focused on joining the EU and Putin, who is a man of internal PR, would not want to alienate the people in E.Ukraine, I would think. I would say that it really could go either way though. There's no solid predicting the Kremlin's overall goal for the area at this point and where Yanukovich is in that game plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 from The Onion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleath56 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 from The Onion I think Europe regrets not listening to ol' Bushie. In other related seriousness, Al Jazeera has their own thoughts on the US's warnings and possible US intervening in Ukraine. http://images.scribblelive.com/2014/3/1/c6b0a850-8b56-41a0-83d4-d4e73c932c3b.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linsox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 sleath has the right of it on Yanukovich with the nitpick that the first protests were about the EU before the focus turned to corruption and then to Bandera and Pravyi Sektor and whatever else.Russian media are taking great pains to stress the illegitimacy of the interim government because their supporters had no say in its formation and (my analysis) they aren't going to let Ukraine go the way of the Baltic states everyone here is fretting about. They've stepped up calls for a federation-type agreement to give more power to local authorities. I see the end game as a referendum wherein each oblast can decide its fate, not just Crimea... and if they can spook Kiev into doing something stupid by putting a boot to its throat, the better to galvanize people with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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