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Kat

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Most timelines place Stoney Sept at no more than three months into the Rebellion. The siege of Storm's End lasted almost a year, which means Gulltown, Summerhall and Ashford all occurred relatively quickly. The movements of the rebels suggests that Stoney Sept was the objective after Ashford, with the intent of joining up with the Stark and Tully forces.

You wouldn't happen to know where to find one of those timelines you're talking about in short notice, by any chance? :)

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You wouldn't happen to know where to find one of those timelines you're talking about in short notice, by any chance? :)

The Citadel is a decent summary. I disagree with it on a couple of minor points, which I just alluded to in SQ. There's another resident on my hard drive, sadly still lacking references and thus not yet suitable for sharing.

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Robellion Timeline excerpt... Robellion starts with Jon Arryn at the Eyrie. Message (or even Robert) from the Eyrie has to reach Storm's End. Troops have to assemble and be moved from Storm's End to Summerhall to win three battles there. Robert brings the captives back to Storm's end, where he goes hunting with them and plays some games with them. He takes his new friends and army to Ashford next, where he lays siege only to be hit by Tyrell's vanguard led by Tarly who make Robert's forces flee, apparently to Storm's end, but feigning and turning north instead.

From Ashford Robert moves to Stoney Sept, while Tarly and Tyrell move to Storm's end. Both places are nearly the same distance from Ashford, it is worth to note. So abouth the time the siege of Storm's End is laid, the Battle of the Bells may happen (let's forget possible Connington attacks to speed it up). The FAQ says this is 4-5 months after the Stark deaths at King's Landing.

Two weeks later Robb may be on the way. It is about 8 months more since Aegon was born. He had to be born first, then Lyanna abducted. Message had to reach Brandon who had to go to King's Landing to rot in the dungeons. Message form King's Landing had to Reach Lord Rickard Stark who had to assemble his bannermen and move 200 Northerners to King's Landing in order to get roasted or burnt.

Dilemma:

Now we have only 6 months left for the Sack or Aegon will be older than 14 moons at his death. Which should be the time for Jon to be born.

On the other hand the siege of Storm's End is 2 weeks old. There should be more then 6 more months to call it "nearly a year".

Which should be the time for Jon to be born.

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Hello @Rhaegar I Targaryen,





Now I would hate to derail the thread with this next question if it doesn't belong here, especially considering things are moving along nicely for the moment (Jon's birthdate and all)





That would depend of what kind of supernatural. Dragons and prophesies for sure.





I was wondering have these threads considered the possibility that supernatural forces influenced Rhaegar into eloping with Lyanna?





A prophesy? Love? The prophesy is of "The Prince that was promised". There is some about it in the House of the Undying Ones visions Daenerys has in A Clash of Kings 48 Daenerys IV. "The Dragon has Three Heads" is a part in the puzzle.





We know that there are transcendent forces at play in GRRM's universe, and the whole thing seems so out of character for Rhaegar..





Do you think so?


Rhaegar is that emo youth who read everything he could and became obsessed with that stuff... and had thought he was that prince himself for some time, until he found it must be his son (Aegon)


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Hello @Rhaegar I Targaryen,

That would depend of what kind of supernatural. Dragons and prophesies for sure.

A prophesy? Love? The prophesy is of "The Prince that was promised". There is some about it in the House of the Undying Ones visions Daenerys has in A Clash of Kings 48 Daenerys IV. "The Dragon has Three Heads" is a part in the puzzle.

Do you think so?

Rhaegar is that emo youth who read everything he could and became obsessed with that stuff... and had thought he was that prince himself for some time, until he found it must be his son (Aegon)

Rhaegar the emo youth was obsessed with the prophecy... sadly like most emo's he could not manage to get things right, He thought he was the prince that was promised. Then he thought it was his son because he thought that the bleeding star was the comet,

His best friend Ser Arthur Dayne, lord of starfell (who said all knights must bleed it is a sign of our devotion) died protecting his son Jon.

Jon Snow was born under the protection of (the bleeding) Arthur Dayne of Starfell.

Depending on Jon's time of birth (bed of blood does seem to make it very close to the battle or very unsanitary) Arthur may have been bleeding at the time Jon was born.

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Question,

How does Dany being conceived the night that Brandon and Rickard were killed affect things?

it does not.fit. As far as I know, Dany was born in Dragonstone 9 moons after the battle of the Trident. Brandon and Rickard were killed before the rebellion.

Perhaps it was another burning.

Dany has burned a few people on her own though. Perhaps it is as much as a family trait as hair and eyes.

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Question,

How does Dany being conceived the night that Brandon and Rickard were killed affect things?

The effect of that would be that Rhaella would have been pregnant for almost 2 years :p

It's quite possible that Dany was conceived the night Lord Chelsted was burned. He was Hand of the King before Lord Rossart, and Rossart was only Hand for a fortnight. Aerys did always visit Rhaella at night when he had a man burned, and Chelsted was burned because he resigned his office when he learned about the Wildfire Plot and did not manage to convince Aerys to stop the wildfire plot.

But with a Rebellion lasting close to a year and Dany being born 9 months after the rebellion has ended, it's impossible for her to have been conceived on the night of Brandon and Rickards deaths.

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Is there a better (/different) source for this information that this SSM quote?:

And I wonder how much we really know about the timing of Dany's birth? Sounds like Rhaella became pregnant right around the time Aerys died... but it could conceivably have happened just after his death. Might Rhaella have taken some newfound liberty after Aerys' death?

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Is there a better (/different) source for this information that this SSM quote?:

Well, in the text it is stated that Rickard and Brandon were killed, and that that sparked the rebellion. The rebellion, as said by GRRM, lasted close to a year. Dany's birth, compared to the rebellion took place:

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart.

That places Dany's birth 9 months after the Sack.

So it's not one source, it's several put together.

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Robellion Timeline excerpt... Robellion starts with Jon Arryn at the Eyrie. Message (or even Robert) from the Eyrie has to reach Storm's End. Troops have to assemble and be moved from Storm's End to Summerhall to win three battles there. Robert brings the captives back to Storm's end, where he goes hunting with them and plays some games with them. He takes his new friends and army to Ashford next, where he lays siege only to be hit by Tyrell's vanguard led by Tarly who make Robert's forces flee, apparently to Storm's end, but feigning and turning north instead.

From Ashford Robert moves to Stoney Sept, while Tarly and Tyrell move to Storm's end. Both places are nearly the same distance from Ashford, it is worth to note. So abouth the time the siege of Storm's End is laid, the Battle of the Bells may happen (let's forget possible Connington attacks to speed it up). The FAQ says this is 4-5 months after the Stark deaths at King's Landing.

Two weeks later Robb may be on the way. It is about 8 months more since Aegon was born. He had to be born first, then Lyanna abducted. Message had to reach Brandon who had to go to King's Landing to rot in the dungeons. Message form King's Landing had to Reach Lord Rickard Stark who had to assemble his bannermen and move 200 Northerners to King's Landing in order to get roasted or burnt.

Dilemma:

Now we have only 6 months left for the Sack or Aegon will be older than 14 moons at his death. Which should be the time for Jon to be born.

On the other hand the siege of Storm's End is 2 weeks old. There should be more then 6 more months to call it "nearly a year".

Which should be the time for Jon to be born.

Simple. The FAQ estimate is off: two months from Aegon's birth to Stark deaths, three months pass from calling the banners to Stoney Sept, nine months from Stoney Sept to Sack= Aegon is 14 months old at Sack. Robb is born just before or around the Sack, while Jon is born a fortnight later.

Sorry for abbreviated version and no references, typing on phone!

Remember GRRM eschews things like figuring out travel times and distances. We can piece the details from the text together like a jigsaw puzzle, but should not get sidetracked by details like those that he is well known for ignoring.

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Simple. The FAQ estimate is off: two months from Aegon's birth to Stark deaths, three months pass from calling the banners to Stoney Sept, nine months from Stoney Sept to Sack= Aegon is 14 months old at Sack. Robb is born just before or around the Sack, while Jon is born a fortnight later.

Sorry for abbreviated version and no references, typing on phone!

Remember GRRM eschews things like figuring out travel times and distances. ...

Thanks for reminding me (I used to remind others).

It would be faster than the ravens, but I think it might work.

On Dragonback :)

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And I wonder how much we really know about the timing of Dany's birth? Sounds like Rhaella became pregnant right around the time Aerys died... but it could conceivably have happened just after his death. Might Rhaella have taken some newfound liberty after Aerys' death?

How long would she have taken to recover from his assault, both physically and psychically? I don't think there was a sufficient time window for that.

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it does not.fit. As far as I know, Dany was born in Dragonstone 9 moons after the battle of the Trident. Brandon and Rickard were killed before the rebellion.

Perhaps it was another burning.

Dany has burned a few people on her own though. Perhaps it is as much as a family trait as hair and eyes.

I don't think that fits either, but maybe I'm just confused. Someone help me out here.

If I'm remembering correctly, Ned went straight from the Trident to King's Landing. By the time he got there, Tywin held the city, Jaime had killed Aerys, and Viserys and his pregnant mother were had fled to Dragonstone. Granted, we don't know the exact dates of the Battle of the Trident and the Siege of KL, but it seems reasonable to say that it was a matter of days or weeks, rather than months, in between the two events. Queen Rhaelle was still on Dragonstone when she gave birth to Dany, so if Dany was conceived during the Battle of the Trident, then Viserys and Rhaelle stayed at Dragonstone for many months before Dany's birth. That strikes me as odd and hard to explain. Word surely would have reached them about the deaths of Rhaegar, Aerys, Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys, and they'd already fled the capital in fear for their lives, why would they stay on Dragonstone for that long?

It makes more sense to me that Dany was conceived earlier than the Battle at the Trident, meaning that Rhaelle was further along in the pregnancy when she and Viserys fled KL for Dragonstone, and shortening the amount of time they stayed there before fleeing for the Free Cities. But, again, maybe I missed something.

EDIT:

Right after posting, I saw the link to that SSM. Now, I'm even more confused.

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And I wonder how much we really know about the timing of Dany's birth? Sounds like Rhaella became pregnant right around the time Aerys died... but it could conceivably have happened just after his death. Might Rhaella have taken some newfound liberty after Aerys' death?

A very interesting thought, especially given the HOTU reference to Dany as "child of three." Could that mean her two acknowledged parents and then a third, unknown father?

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they'd already fled the capital in fear for their lives, why would they stay on Dragonstone for that long?

Because it was the seat of their House - Targaryen for 400 years. The only place they had.

And it was safe as long as the usurper had no fleet.

Why did it take Stannis 8 months to build a fleet and wait for the right wind to assault Dragonstone?

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Because it was the seat of their House - Targaryen for 400 years. The only place they had.

And it was safe as long as the usurper had no fleet.

Why did it take Stannis 8 months to build a fleet and wait for the right wind to assault Dragonstone?

Did it take eight months? I don't remember reading that, but that could be the answer right there.

As for Dragonstone being safe as long as Robert had no fleet, I guess I just assumed that once the Tyrells bent the knee to Ned outside Storm's End, the new king would have had access to the Redwyne fleet, but perhaps it was more complicated than that.

EDIT:

Actually, even if it did take Stannis that long, I'm not sure that explains it. Rhaelle had no way of knowing when the Usurper's forces would come after her, but she had to know it would happen. Dragonstone was both the most obvious place for her to be and very close to the recently taken capital. Wouldn't a mother fearing for her life and the lives of her children want to get the hell out of there as soon as possible? Or did she still hold out hope of victory after her entire family and all of the Seven Kingdoms had bent the knee? It doesn't really add up to me.

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