R + L = J v 74

[COYStars]

Do you mind explaining? Why would R+L=J have anything to do with developmental "speed?" Is there a theory behind the idea?

Because R+L=J would have Jon older than he is supposed to be.

I can't remember the timeline, but IIRC if Jon is Lyanna's child, recently born at the ToJ, then Jon could be Robb's elder by a month or so. As opposed to the established thinking, which is that Robb was conceived before Ned went to war and (as Ned told Robert) Jon was conceived afterwards, while Ned was at war.

[Black_Paradiso]

We like to focus on the positive aspects of Reagar but he had to be a little full of himself! People born to privilege usually are.

Well, we know from what Jaime Lannister remembers of the last time he spoke to him that Rhaegar was at least confident that he would return to King's Landing after the battle.

[Ygrain]

Well, we know from what Jaime Lannister remembers of the last time he spoke to him that Rhaegar was at least confident that he would return to King's Landing after the battle.

Given the setting of the dialogue, though, it really wasn't a time to show doubts, even if he had any, so that is a bit inconclusive.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Yes, and I certainly wouldn't use it as being evidence of Rhaeger 'being full of himself'.

Riding into battle thinking you're going to lose is something best not done.

Also, for being 'full of yourself', don't you need an audience? Rhaegar was a very private person, no one really knew him (same with Jon), so that's in contrast to that.

[Alia of the knife]

Maybe a bit off topic with this, but I always wondered if Rhaegar rode out to face Robert 1 on 1 to give him a chance to explain the situation. Everything written about Rhaegar, it doesn't seem like his character to drop everything(if Lyanna and him were truly in love), leave all of his best men, and face one of the more ferocious warriors of the time in open battle.

I imagine if this has any truth, once his attempts failed and Robert relentlessly assaulted him he gave it all he had, but still facing Robert like that is nigh insanity.

Rhaegar gave the Tower of Joy its name. I think not only at this point did he expect to win,I think he wanted to defeat Robert and actually did almost succeed in killing him.

[Black_Paradiso]

Yes, and I certainly wouldn't use it as being evidence of Rhaeger 'being full of himself'.

Riding into battle thinking you're going to lose is something best not done.

Also, for being 'full of yourself', don't you need an audience? Rhaegar was a very private person, no one really knew him (same with Jon), so that's in contrast to that.

Well, I didn't mean to agree that he was "full of himself" per se, but rather that I think that someone of his position would certainly have had a certain amount of self confidence. Especially considering he excelled at almost anything he did.

[MtnLion]

Because R+L=J would have Jon older than he is supposed to be.

I can't remember the timeline, but IIRC if Jon is Lyanna's child, recently born at the ToJ, then Jon could be Robb's elder by a month or so. As opposed to the established thinking, which is that Robb was conceived before Ned went to war and (as Ned told Robert) Jon was conceived afterwards, while Ned was at war.

Robb was conceived just before or just after the Battle of the Bells. There is some ambiguity about Jon Arryn's need, and Hoster participating in the battle. Jon Arryn and Ned were married to the Tullys at the same wedding, and after a suitable period Catelyn reflects that Ned rode off to war. Ned sent for Catelyn to go to Winterfell at the end of the war, and she makes the trip with a newborn Robb, and arrives to find Jon and his wetnurse already present. Catelyn is not a complete idiot, and can only be jealous if Jon indeed appears younger than a newborn Robb. If he appears in anyway older, or can be represented to be older, then Ned can apologize for his pre-marital slip and things should be much easier around the Stark household. Jon is younger than Robb by at least a fortnight, maybe a month.

[MtnLion]

I would be amazed if there is a single other person who read The Princess and the Queen who believes that Aegon gave those orders. It says: "Lord Larys decreed" and then describes the orders in great detail. It also describes the vow the King's guard swore as he and the only other King's guard present left the king without King's guard protection.

"I swore a vow (to leave the king with no King's guards protecting him so I could go do something else I was ordered to do).

I didn't see any such thing. Care to cite page and give the entire quote, not just for the Kingsguard's pledge, but for the supposed lack of command from the king?

[COYStars]

Robb was conceived just before or just after the Battle of the Bells. There is some ambiguity about Jon Arryn's need, and Hoster participating in the battle. Jon Arryn and Ned were married to the Tullys at the same wedding, and after a suitable period Catelyn reflects that Ned rode off to war. Ned sent for Catelyn to go to Winterfell at the end of the war, and she makes the trip with a newborn Robb, and arrives to find Jon and his wetnurse already present. Catelyn is not a complete idiot, and can only be jealous if Jon indeed appears younger than a newborn Robb. If he appears in anyway older, or can be represented to be older, then Ned can apologize for his pre-marital slip and things should be much easier around the Stark household. Jon is younger than Robb by at least a fortnight, maybe a month.

I think we can make too much of babies' sizes - yes they grow quickly, but they start off at very different sizes to begin with. My girls were both 10lbs+ at birth; a 6lb baby might not reach 10lb until 2-3 months have passed. I very much doubt that Cat would have travelled with a literally newborn Robb (and the journey would take some time anyway), similarly Ned... and I doubt that Cat would have given Jon any detailed inspection whatsoever. So they very easily could be of equivalent age, with Jon's age being underestimated to suit the notion that Ned was unfaithful after he left for battle.

I'm not convinced that Jon being a week or two older than Robb would make it easier for Ned to explain away his slip.

Anyway, little rides on this except potentially to explain the clues about Jon developing quicker than Robb.

[Jackson5tributeband]

Because R+L=J would have Jon older than he is supposed to be.

I can't remember the timeline, but IIRC if Jon is Lyanna's child, recently born at the ToJ, then Jon could be Robb's elder by a month or so. As opposed to the established thinking, which is that Robb was conceived before Ned went to war and (as Ned told Robert) Jon was conceived afterwards, while Ned was at war.

We have no idea of Jon's real age, just what Ned decided to tell folks when he got back from Dorn. And as he was their High lord with a rep for impeccable honesty who was going to question?

[Jackson5tributeband]

I think we can make too much of babies' sizes - yes they grow quickly, but they start off at very different sizes to begin with. My girls were both 10lbs+ at birth; a 6lb baby might not reach 10lb until 2-3 months have passed. I very much doubt that Cat would have travelled with a literally newborn Robb (and the journey would take some time anyway), similarly Ned... and I doubt that Cat would have given Jon any detailed inspection whatsoever. So they very easily could be of equivalent age, with Jon's age being underestimated to suit the notion that Ned was unfaithful after he left for battle.

I'm not convinced that Jon being a week or two older than Robb would make it easier for Ned to explain away his slip.

Anyway, little rides on this except potentially to explain the clues about Jon developing quicker than Robb.

Yep 100% agree. Remember also that Jon would have been fed a mix of goats milk with the occasional wet nurse, he had no mothers milk for obvious reasons, logic dictates he may have been underfed and small when he got to WF.

[Ygrain]

Yep 100% agree. Remember also that Jon would have been fed a mix of goats milk with the occasional wet nurse, he had no mothers milk for obvious reasons, logic dictates he may have been underfed and small when he got to WF.

The wetnurse might have been present at ToJ already.

We have no idea of Jon's real age, just what Ned decided to tell folks when he got back from Dorn. And as he was their High lord with a rep for impeccable honesty who was going to question?

We do - per GRRM, Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany, which makes it about the time of the Sack or within a month since.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

I think we can make too much of babies' sizes - yes they grow quickly, but they start off at very different sizes to begin with. My girls were both 10lbs+ at birth; a 6lb baby might not reach 10lb until 2-3 months have passed. I very much doubt that Cat would have travelled with a literally newborn Robb (and the journey would take some time anyway), similarly Ned... and I doubt that Cat would have given Jon any detailed inspection whatsoever. So they very easily could be of equivalent age, with Jon's age being underestimated to suit the notion that Ned was unfaithful after he left for battle.

I'm not convinced that Jon being a week or two older than Robb would make it easier for Ned to explain away his slip.

Anyway, little rides on this except potentially to explain the clues about Jon developing quicker than Robb.

If you have children or have spent time with infants, you understand it's not about size so much as development. You couldn't pass a six month old off as a three month old, for instance, and vice versa, no matter which babe is larger.

Cat's POV and the timeline both support Robb being older.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

If you have children or have spent time with infants, you understand it's not about size so much as development. You couldn't pass a six month old off as a three month old, for instance, and vice versa, no matter which babe is larger.

Cat's POV and the timeline both support Robb being older.

Agreed. (I have children, too.) Though I'm interested that you think Robb is older, because my assumption has been that Jon was born first. Now I'm gonna need to look around to see where I got that impression... It may simply be the fact that Jon arrived in Winterfell before Robb - which doesn't have anything to do with age necessarily, but would certainly have irked Catelyn a bit. (:understatement:) And older or younger, that "first arrival" would take a kind of symbolic precedence as well, in terms of Jon being the first "son of Winterfell" in his generation. Hmm... (still thinking)...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

But if Robb was born before Jon (who was born around the time of the Sack, so Robb would have been born before the Sack), there is a large span of time of which we don't know anything, rebellion-wise. Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells, since Catelyn thinks of her wedding day being the same day as Lysa's wedding to Jon Arryn, and later she remembers than Jon Arryn's wedding to Lysa had been hastily arranged, and that Jon needed a fertile wife, since his last heir had died during the Battle of the Bells.

Ned stayed at Riverrun for a fortnight, but Catelyn is convinced that Robb was conceived on their wedding night. That would put more than 9 months between the Battle of the Bells and the Sack (or 9 months at the least), which is far too long, seeing as how baby Aegon died in between the age of 12 to 14 months, and so many things seem to have happened before the Battle of the Bells (Brandon going south, Rickard going south, Brandon and Rickard dying, raven of Aerys to the Eyrie, Jon Arryn calling the banners, fighting at Gulltown, Robert to Storm's End, Robert marching on Summerhall, Robert returning to SE with his prisoners, Robert marching on Ashford, Robert fleeing (with only a few to none men) north to meet up with Arryn, Stark and Tully forces -> Battle of the Bells).

[MtnLion]

But if Robb was born before Jon (who was born around the time of the Sack, so Robb would have been born before the Sack), there is a large span of time of which we don't know anything, rebellion-wise. Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells, since Catelyn thinks of her wedding day being the same day as Lysa's wedding to Jon Arryn, and later she remembers than Jon Arryn's wedding to Lysa had been hastily arranged, and that Jon needed a fertile wife, since his last heir had died during the Battle of the Bells.

Ned stayed at Riverrun for a fortnight, but Catelyn is convinced that Robb was conceived on their wedding night. That would put more than 9 months between the Battle of the Bells and the Sack (or 9 months at the least), which is far too long, seeing as how baby Aegon died in between the age of 12 to 14 months, and so many things seem to have happened before the Battle of the Bells (Brandon going south, Rickard going south, Brandon and Rickard dying, raven of Aerys to the Eyrie, Jon Arryn calling the banners, fighting at Gulltown, Robert to Storm's End, Robert marching on Summerhall, Robert returning to SE with his prisoners, Robert marching on Ashford, Robert fleeing (with only a few to none men) north to meet up with Arryn, Stark and Tully forces -> Battle of the Bells).

Storm's End is under siege for nearly a year. The initial battles and Robert's campaign moved along briskly. The deciding battles are all that we know about, though, I am sure. Travel time is what GRRM says that it is, not what we plot on the maps. For instance Rhaegar leaves for the Trident with his army, arrives and dies, and the opposing army, under Ned arrives at King's Landing all in less than a fortnight. The latest date for Jon to be born is a fortnight after the fall of King's Landing, and that is what I favor to have Ned arrive in time for Lyanna to succumb to Puerperal Fever.

ETA: It would have been nice if Catelyn had noted that King's Landing fell a month or so after Robb's birth, but we are stuck. ;)

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

But if Robb was born before Jon (who was born around the time of the Sack, so Robb would have been born before the Sack), there is a large span of time of which we don't know anything, rebellion-wise. Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells, since Catelyn thinks of her wedding day being the same day as Lysa's wedding to Jon Arryn, and later she remembers than Jon Arryn's wedding to Lysa had been hastily arranged, and that Jon needed a fertile wife, since his last heir had died during the Battle of the Bells.

Ned stayed at Riverrun for a fortnight, but Catelyn is convinced that Robb was conceived on their wedding night. That would put more than 9 months between the Battle of the Bells and the Sack (or 9 months at the least), which is far too long, seeing as how baby Aegon died in between the age of 12 to 14 months, and so many things seem to have happened before the Battle of the Bells (Brandon going south, Rickard going south, Brandon and Rickard dying, raven of Aerys to the Eyrie, Jon Arryn calling the banners, fighting at Gulltown, Robert to Storm's End, Robert marching on Summerhall, Robert returning to SE with his prisoners, Robert marching on Ashford, Robert fleeing (with only a few to none men) north to meet up with Arryn, Stark and Tully forces -> Battle of the Bells).

Most timelines place Stoney Sept at no more than three months into the Rebellion. The siege of Storm's End lasted almost a year, which means Gulltown, Summerhall and Ashford all occurred relatively quickly. The movements of the rebels suggests that Stoney Sept was the objective after Ashford, with the intent of joining up with the Stark and Tully forces.

You are correct there is a lengthy time where we don't know exactly what was going on. Selmy and Darry were rallying the royalist forces, Hightower was journeying to the Prince's Pass to retrieve Rhaegar, Lewyn Martell heading to Dorne to take control of the Dornish forces, and then Rhaegar spending an unspecified amount of time in King's Landing which included the Handship and firing of Lord Chelsted, the wildfire plot and the final deployment of Targaryen troops to the Trident, Rhaegar's death and ultimately the Sack. It's completely reasonable all of that took nine months or more, which still leaves a couple of months at the beginning in between Aegon's birth and the calling of the banners to allow for Lyanna's disappearance and the deaths of her father and brother.

eta-- :ninja:'d by ML ;)

[stateofdissipation]

Because R+L=J would have Jon older than he is supposed to be.

I can't remember the timeline, but IIRC if Jon is Lyanna's child, recently born at the ToJ, then Jon could be Robb's elder by a month or so. As opposed to the established thinking, which is that Robb was conceived before Ned went to war and (as Ned told Robert) Jon was conceived afterwards, while Ned was at war.

RR started with the battle at summerhall. There was the battle of ashford and Ned joined in at the battle of the bells. Ned married Cat and knocked her up immediately before leaving for the battle of the bells. The sack of kingslanding, was one year after the rebellion started. Ned then went to lift the seige on storm's end and then to the ToJ. I can't seem to find how long it was between the start of the a rebellion and the battle of the bells. I do have rough dististances, Robert covered roughly twice the distance before the battle of the bells than he did after it.

The rough distance Ned covered between KL, Storms End and the ToJ were equal to or greater than what Robert covered before the battle of the bells.

If the question is only one of distances and time, Ned took over a year between knocking up Cat and arriving at the ToJ. Calculating the differences between travel times while factoring in troop movements friendly and enemy seems to be an impossible task. However it could very well be far quicker for Ned to make it from KL to ToJ than it was for Robert to take his path to KL.

The earlier Lyanna gave birth in relation to Ned's arrival, the more disgusting her living conditions were Ned found her in a bed of blood. Notably Ned did not return to find Cat in a bed of blood. He returned to find her with a son.

I will say that with some degree of certainty we can say Jon and Robb are within 3 months of eachother and the difference could go either way. That is hardly a sexy conclusion. It is the best i can figure with the given information.

Unknowns that would be helpful:

Time between Battle of the Bells and the Sack of Kings Landing

Time Robert took to get from Trident to KL (Robert sent Ned to Storm's End)

Time Ned's army took to get to Storm's End.

Time it took for Ned to find the location of ToJ

If Ned plus six rode from Storm's End or were they part of a larger group.

Time a larger or group of 6 takes to get from Storm's End to ToJ

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

ETA: It would have been nice if Catelyn had noted that King's Landing fell a month or so after Robb's birth, but we are stuck. ;)

That would have been soooooooo usefull :D But unfortunately.... :(

[Rhaegar I Targaryen]

Now I would hate to derail the thread with this next question if it doesn't belong here, especially considering things are moving along nicely for the moment (Jon's birthdate and all)

But I was wondering have these threads considered the possibility that supernatural forces influenced Rhaegar into eloping with Lyanna? We know that there are transcendent forces at play in GRRM's universe, and the whole thing seems so out of character for Rhaegar..

Stannis, for example, has based his entire campaign on the idea that he is AAR and is merely doing his duty. He was compelled to do so because of Melisandre, and she is proof of the power of the gods, therefore lending credence to the legitimacy of the prophecies and supernatural interference directed at the characters. Ironically, Stannis fans tend to bear no love for Rhay-Rhay and condemn him for shirking his duty to hang out with a hot 14 year old.

I can expand upon this if need be.