Jeor Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yep, from a team and individual tactics pov there is no real point in aggressively chasing down a breakaway from a non contender. I'd someone in the likely top ten were to try and go they will usually be reeled in sharpish. It also makes sense to conserve your energy and finish well behind in the other stages until you want to use it all up on a breakaway. I imagine a lot of these breakaway riders would have pinpointed a particular stage and done their homework scouting it in advance. Going to be a good one today, first real mountain stage. Time to see who can stick with Contador on the climbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Going to be a good one today, first real mountain stage. Time to see who can stick with Contador on the climbs.Proper mountain stage, but not the biggest finish. I'm going to stick my neck out and say contador takes 45-60 seconds out nibali, Porte somewhere near nibs, everyone else out the backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Contador's just crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Contador in trouble! Cat amongst the pigeons now. He's losing big time. EDIT: Crash cost him 4 minutes off the peloton. He'll probably make it back but it'll be a big effort for him to gain time on the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 He's about to abandon I think, he's going backwards. As I type that, he's getting into the car. Nibali vs Porte? Or can Kwiatkowski stay away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redriver Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Pity that.Apparently it was some sort of frame failure that caused the crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Wow. Contador gone. The two massive favourites Froome/Contador both out due to crashes. Nibali definitely looks good now, Porte possibly, but I think a darkhorse is Kwiatkowski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tony Martin is ridiculous. He has to get tired soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tony Martin is ridiculous. He has to get tired soon. I think him and Kwiatkowski will benefit from Cavendish being out. If all three of them were still in, OPQS would be all over the shop - having to protect a white/GC contender, while saving energy for sprint/stage wins on other days, and Martin would be out in the cold. Given the multiple goals OPQS would have been chasing, and the team riders being stretched thin over all of these goals, Martin would have to have doubled as a domestique for Kwiatkowski in the mountain stages. As it is, Kwiatkowski will now have the team much more focused on his GC aspirations, and Martin is probably freed up to do whatever he likes, which is what time triallists like best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like Nibali has it. Unless he crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 3 years in a row now the tour has been a procession. you can't blame nibali but it is not going to be interesting, unless porte is riding into form during the tour and smashed the time trial at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 It's a shame everyone except Porte seems happy to ride for second, just following him up the hill and attacking when he's tired, rather than going after Nibali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 When was the last Tour with no previous winners present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 3 years in a row now the tour has been a procession. you can't blame nibali but it is not going to be interesting, unless porte is riding into form during the tour and smashed the time trial at the end.My sentiments exactly. So incredibly disappointed to hear of Contador's fall.This Tour has been completely beheaded. A great as Nibali clearly is, he could have had a good fight with Froome an Contador, but not with what is left.Valverde is clearly the same climber he always was and will be lucky to fnish at the podium. There is no challenger here for Nibali and quite frankly, even if there was, with Contador and Froome both out, my interest in this Tour has plummeted to near-zero.What a blow.I guess I can hope that the Vuelta will be very big this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It is a bit of a shame that we don't have a challenger for Nibali. But a crash or some other misfortune for him would make it really interesting, and with Froome and Contador both out due to unforeseen circumstances and the weather looking terrible, there's always the chance something could put the cat amongst the pigeons again. Maybe a forlorn hope. As for the rest of the contenders, Porte is the most likely. Some of the others like Van Garderen and Kwiatkowski might be able to do something but they're still probably a bit young. I guess I can hope that the Vuelta will be very big this year. Vuelta will be massive if Contador, Froome, Wiggins all go in for it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redriver Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm a bit of a noob to this game.Do any of you have any thoughts on what strategies or tactics Porte and Team Sky could use or is Nibali and his team just too strong?Try and stay in some sort of touch and conserve energy for the time trial?Take a risk and try and get involved in an early breakaway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm a bit of a noob to this game.Do any of you have any thoughts on what strategies or tactics Porte and Team Sky could use or is Nibali and his team just too strong?Try and stay in some sort of touch and conserve energy for the time trial?Take a risk and try and get involved in an early breakaway? It would be very rare for any contender to gain time via breakaways. The only reason breakaways are allowed to initially separate from the pack are because they're filled with people who aren't threatening to the main contenders. If, for instance, Porte tried to get himself involved in an early breakaway, Nibali would immediately close the gap and chase him down and vice versa. In those cases the breakaways would not eventuate, it is rare for the main contenders to separate themselves in the first parts of a stage. Plus even if a contender did get away in a breakaway, they would be burning up a whole lot of energy for conceivably not much benefit since most breakaways do get caught up in the end. The usual method for the major contenders is to have all the main men in the peloton, and then towards the end of the race try and drop them in an attack. So on the mountain stages, Porte or Nibali would probably stick with the main field for most of the stage, conserve their energy, and then go for a solo dash on the final climb or two to gain a few minutes. The time trial is a bit of a mixed bag and you never really know what will happen in those. Fairly sure that Nibali is a better time trialler than Porte though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redriver Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It would be very rare for any contender to gain time via breakaways. The only reason breakaways are allowed to initially separate from the pack are because they're filled with people who aren't threatening to the main contenders. If, for instance, Porte tried to get himself involved in an early breakaway, Nibali would immediately close the gap and chase him down and vice versa. In those cases the breakaways would not eventuate, it is rare for the main contenders to separate themselves in the first parts of a stage. Plus even if a contender did get away in a breakaway, they would be burning up a whole lot of energy for conceivably not much benefit since most breakaways do get caught up in the end. The usual method for the major contenders is to have all the main men in the peloton, and then towards the end of the race try and drop them in an attack. So on the mountain stages, Porte or Nibali would probably stick with the main field for most of the stage, conserve their energy, and then go for a solo dash on the final climb or two to gain a few minutes. The time trial is a bit of a mixed bag and you never really know what will happen in those. Fairly sure that Nibali is a better time trialler than Porte though. Thanks,I appreciate the reply.Yes it's looking good for Nibali but I hope it remains some sort of contest for as long as possible. I gather the next stage on Wednesday is fairly flat until one steep climb/descent at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Vuelta will be massive if Contador, Froome, Wiggins all go in for it now. Quintana too isnt it? The stage he took the Giro on seemed a perfect demonstration of sneaking away from the other contenders, although I'm not sure if the initial break on the descent caught them napping or they didn't think he was actually a threat, either way he buried them on the climb as well. Really wishing he was in the tour as captain rather than Valverde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Oh yes, Quintana will be very good too. I must confess I don't really know much about the Vuelta, Le Tour is pretty much the only race I properly follow, maybe a couple of the Classics if they're on at convenient times. Is the Vuelta roughly equivalent to the Tour? More mountains, or more flats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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