The Inevitable Return of the Middle East and North Africa Thread (aka MENA 15)

[Fez]

What do people think could happen if the US did withdraw it's support, either financially or politically?

It might be bad that they are propping them up but at least someone has a small amount of control over them. If they were going it alone who knows what sort or shit the Israeli government would try.

If the US truly withdrew their support, and said "nope, you're on your own now." and couldn't be wooed back, I'd imagine Israel would try to renew its old alliances with either the UK or France, who conveniently both also have vetoes on the UN security council. If it could be done, I'm sure either would force Israel to make some changes, but probably not too many, particularly for the French, who, considering their frequent interventions in Africa, seem to be particularly anti-Islamist.

[DanteGabriel]

If the US truly withdrew their support, and said "nope, you're on your own now." and couldn't be wooed back, I'd imagine Israel would try to renew its old alliances with either the UK or France, who conveniently both also have vetoes on the UN security council. If it could be done, I'm sure either would force Israel to make some changes, but probably not too many, particularly for the French, who, considering their frequent interventions in Africa, seem to be particularly anti-Islamist.

Or the Russians. They've played footsie in the past.

[Fez]

Or the Russians. They've played footsie in the past.

True. And there's about a million ex-Soviet Jews in Israel, so there's certainly a cultural connection there.

[Shryke]

Out of curiosity, why was the wall built in the first place? Why does Israel require to check papers before crossing the border of the West Bank? Because when I look at what happened between 1994-2004, I see a lot of suicide bombings in major civilian areas that killed or injured a lot of people. And I don't see much of that anymore once they started taking their border security seriously.

I get your point, I agree about accountability, but lets not act like they just threw up this barrier for the hell of it or to screw over everyone in the West Bank. They did it to protect their citizens from the multiple suicide bombings a year that hit cafes, buses, populated squares over a period of 10 years. I completely disagree with the settlements and I wish they'd move towards a two state solution. I think the current leadership in Israel are way too war hungry and think they're horrible leaders who are just going to make everything worse which they have. But I also fully recognize that constantly having terrorist suicide bombers with a mantra to destroy Israel, kill or injure civilians is no way to live and that something had to be done.

That something had to be done does not mean that what was done was the right thing.

[ljkeane]

If the US truly withdrew their support, and said "nope, you're on your own now." and couldn't be wooed back, I'd imagine Israel would try to renew its old alliances with either the UK or France, who conveniently both also have vetoes on the UN security council. If it could be done, I'm sure either would force Israel to make some changes, but probably not too many, particularly for the French, who, considering their frequent interventions in Africa, seem to be particularly anti-Islamist.

Even if the US stopped automatically vetoing all Security Council Resolutions on Israel I doubt there'd be enough will to put through anything that'd put real pressure on Israel. They'd probably be on the receiving end of some embarrassingly critical Resolutions but they've ignored those before.

If the US stopped subsidising the Israeli defence budget that'd probably have a bigger impact. Israel is wealthy enough that they could afford to maintain their current level of spending if they wanted to but it'd certainly be something of a hardship.

[Samalander]

That started to change only in the last few years, as I started to learn more about the policies of Netanyahu's government. I don't believe Netanyahu is at all interested in any peaceful solution, I don't trust him to act in good faith, and I am pretty pissed about how blatantly disrespectful he is towards the government of the country that floats him billions of dollars in aid every year.

Say what you will about the man, he really doesn't like wars. Of all Israeli PMs in recent years, he has been the most reluctant to actually use brute force.

It wasn't the British who set the borders in Palestine, they were opposed to partition. Partition was largely driven by the US through the UN, which did set the borders of two states but that was superseded by the Jewish side winning the subsequent conflict.

You somehow managed to skip a step or two there...

Partition driven by US, yada yada yada, Jewish side winning subsequent conflict.

All you have to do is look at the casualty statistics.

Under a dozen israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed.

THOUSANDS of Palestinian men women and children have been seriously wounded or killed.

How are the ruling powers if Palestine even ok with extending this conflict? Or Israel for laying the hammer down on schools and areas they know are high in population.

Just look at the Time coverage if it so far, Palestinians holding their dead children family and babies, seriously wounded, and then it goes to the Israeli side and it's just pictures of the funerals of the soldiers. This conflict is so one sided its not even funny

Casualty statistics are simply the result of asymetrical might (and yours, as had already been stated, are wrong). But just as might does not make right, neither does weakness. When you have a life-affirming Democracy on one hand and a Jihadist death-loving, terror spreading cult on the other, it's really supposed to be a no-brainer. We are in the moral right of this conflict.

Tunnels originally created so they could get goods into Palestine since Israel locked them out from any kind of free trade.

The tunnels we are demolishing are tunnels into Israel. They were not created to get goods into Gaza (those are the tunnels into Egypt). Tunnels into Israel are built with one thing in mind - getting militants across the border to kill, maim, murder, spread fear and abduct soldiers. Thus far, tunnels found are extensive and numerous, making this humble board member wonder - what other useful civilian things could all this concrete have been used for?

Looks like the Israeli people are really afraid of the Hamas rockets. So afraid, in fact, that many got within rocket range just so they could get a closer look at Israel killing Palestinian civilians.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/israelis-watch-bombs-drop-on-gaza-from-front-row-seats.html?smid=fb-share

Disgusting.

Don't judge lest you be... No, that can't possibly be right. First walk a mile in a... No, not good either.

Here is what I have to say on the matter:

1) People who live in constant fear need some form of release that lets them show they are not afraid.

2) Humans just like watching things go boom. For the same reason they go outside to watch Iron Dome blow rockets out of the sky, when they should be holed up in bunkers and safe rooms. One such person got seriously injured by a Hamas rocket the other day, because he wanted to watch it get shot down.

And since a few others have done it, I'll give my background as well. I used to be ill-informed and mildly on the pro-Israel side, since that's all I ever saw. Mostly I just didn't care, but my grandpa is Jewish, so I leaned towards pro-Israel.

Almost two years ago my mother in law got a short term teaching job, living in Israel and travelling to the West Bank. The stories she told me about the things she saw really made me go and research this more. Concentration camps, the necessity of 'papers' or else you go to jail, controlling of the roads so that certain people were forced to go 4 hours out of their way around the fence instead of the 20 min it takes to go straight through, that you couldn't look at an Israeli soldier because they could throw you in jail for no reason, people starving on one side of the fence, people living lavishly on the other, and the general bigotry towards any Palestinians. It was shocking to hear and she basically said that everything we've been told about Israel is a lie.

There was a very different reply here, but I deleted it.

All I have for you is :crying:

I could see bombing rocket sites as making sense but of those sites are next to schools or shelters it should be pretty obvious to hold your fire and find another way.

There is no other way. In such cases, you give people sufficient warning and time to leave and then you bomb. If people take shelter in a school that is supposed to be abandoned/vacant, and we don't know they decided to take up residence there, we will bomb. That's how we later get accused of bombing populated UN schools.

[Mexal]

That something had to be done does not mean that what was done was the right thing.

No shit, however, the right thing is subjective depending on what angle you're viewing from. If you're an Israeli citizen who was scared to even ride the bus for 10 years because of fear of being blown up by a terrorist who didn't believe you had a right to exist, then you're bound to think the right thing was upping border security which drastically dropped the suicide bombings down to none from several a year. If you're looking from the outside in, you're likely to think the right thing is a different solution given the humanitarian issue in the West Bank, some of which may or may not be realistic. It's a matter of perception.

[DanteGabriel]

Netanyahu reluctant to use brute force? That is some selective definition of brute force. I'd say missile strikes are pretty brute forcey.

If you'd like to say he doesn't like to commit ground troops to the task of killing Palestinians, I'd agree with that.

[ljkeane]

No shit, however, the right thing is subjective depending on what angle you're viewing from. If you're an Israeli citizen who was scared to even ride the bus for 10 years because of fear of being blown up by a terrorist who didn't believe you had a right to exist, then you're bound to think the right thing was upping border security which drastically dropped the suicide bombings down to none from several a year. If you're looking from the outside in, you're likely to think the right thing is a different solution, some of which may or may not be realistic. It's a matter of perception.

You seem to be skipping over a bit of why the Wall is viewed as illegal. If Israel is concerned enough about terrorism they are free to build a wall on the Israel side of the green line. It's building a wall through the middle of and, even in some cases, surrounding Palestinian communities in the West Bank that presents a bit of an issue.

[Samalander]

Netanyahu reluctant to use brute force? That is some selective definition of brute force. I'd say missile strikes are pretty brute forcey.

Which he really really didn't want to deploy. He was sort of dragged into this conflict, and gets lots of flak from his ministers for not being sufficiently aggressive (they are all thinking about the next elections. He has to think about the Americans, soldier body counts and international legalities). The Left-Wing Opposition has actually praised Netanyahu for his moderation and good sense.

[Shryke]

Which he really really didn't want to deploy. He was sort of dragged into this conflict, and gets lots of flak from his ministers for not being sufficiently aggressive (they are all thinking about the next elections. He has to think about the Americans, soldier body counts and international legalities). The Left-Wing opposition has actually praised Netanyahu for his moderation and good sense.

Ahh, so when you say "Bibi is reluctant to use force" you mean it in the same way that people say "Obama is a ultra-left socialist".

[Mexal]

You seem to be skipping over a bit of why the Wall is viewed as illegal. If Israel is concerned enough about terrorism they are free to build a wall on the Israel side of the green line. It's building a wall through the middle of and, even in some cases, surrounding Palestinian communities in the West Bank that presents a bit of an issue.

This is fair. I don't mean to skip over it. Just saying it was an untenable situation that lead to it in the first place and that it wasn't just thrown up to fuck over the Palestinians in the West Bank but to protect Israeli citizens from terrorists. That's really all my point was since that part of it was glossed over to focus on the humanitarian issues in the West Bank and without ever mentioning why it was built in the first place by a previous poster.

[Shryke]

There is no other way. In such cases, you give people sufficient warning and time to leave and then you bomb. If people take shelter in a school that is supposed to be abandoned/vacant, and we don't know they decided to take up residence there, we will bomb. That's how we later get accused of bombing populated UN schools.

Except they told the IDF many times it wasn't:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/30/us-mideast-gaza-idUSKBN0FV04A20140730

[Shryke]

You seem to be skipping over a bit of why the Wall is viewed as illegal. If Israel is concerned enough about terrorism they are free to build a wall on the Israel side of the green line. It's building a wall through the middle of and, even in some cases, surrounding Palestinian communities in the West Bank that presents a bit of an issue.

Also the fact that they are occupying and controlling the area while doing this.

This isn't like building a border wall, it's like building a wall around a few bad blocks in Chicago to keep the crime out of downtown and then making people go through checkpoints to buy groceries or the like.

[aceluby]

Also the fact that they are occupying and controlling the area while doing this.

This isn't like building a border wall, it's like building a wall around a few bad blocks in Chicago to keep the crime out of downtown and then making people go through checkpoints to buy groceries or the like.

And then arresting people as they see fit for being outside the wall for really any reason.

[aceluby]

Which he really really didn't want to deploy. He was sort of dragged into this conflict, and gets lots of flak from his ministers for not being sufficiently aggressive (they are all thinking about the next elections. He has to think about the Americans, soldier body counts and international legalities). The Left-Wing Opposition has actually praised Netanyahu for his moderation and good sense.

Sorry, but this and your previous post are simply delusional. You aren't living in the same reality here. Israel orders air strikes when one single rocket is fired and doesn't hit anything, but it's good enough to drop bombs on Palestinians. Dozens over the last few years, while at the same time occupying land that isn't theirs which has had the international community in an uproar for a decade. They have turned from the victim to the aggressor, there is no 'morally right' side to this. Just victims and oppressors and the Israeli govt is an oppressor.

[Galactus]

Sorry, but this and your previous post are simply delusional. You aren't living in the same reality here. Israel orders air strikes when one single rocket is fired and doesn't hit anything, but it's good enough to drop bombs on Palestinians. Dozens over the last few years, while at the same time occupying land that isn't theirs which has had the international community in an uproar for a decade. They have turned from the victim to the aggressor, there is no 'morally right' side to this. Just victims and oppressors and the Israeli govt is an oppressor.

Sami's point is that this isn't neccessarily Bibi personally chomping at the bit, but rather the fact that he has a coalition to keep together. He's a prime minister of a coalition government, not a dictator.

[Shryke]

Sami's point is that this isn't neccessarily Bibi personally chomping at the bit, but rather the fact that he has a coalition to keep together. He's a prime minister of a coalition government, not a dictator.

That just makes Bibi's personal preferences rather irrelevant then.

[Errant Bard]

If the US truly withdrew their support, and said "nope, you're on your own now." and couldn't be wooed back, I'd imagine Israel would try to renew its old alliances with either the UK or France, who conveniently both also have vetoes on the UN security council. If it could be done, I'm sure either would force Israel to make some changes, but probably not too many, particularly for the French, who, considering their frequent interventions in Africa, seem to be particularly anti-Islamist.

I'd say that it would be a cold day in hell when France, as it is working right now, would support Israel. You'd see most suburbs burn first, at least. Not even the rightmost-wing supports jews right now, you would need the moderate right to be in secure power, unworried by centrists, leftists or extreme right. Not going to happen... I think.

[Fez]

I'd say that it would be a cold day in hell when France, as it is working right now, would support Israel. You'd see most suburbs burn first, at least. Not even the rightmost-wing supports jews right now, you would need the moderate right to be in secure power, unworried by centrists, leftists or extreme right. Not going to happen... I think.

Wasn't it just a few years ago that Sarkozy said that he'd refuse to meet the head of state from any country that refused to recognize Israel's existence? Considering that Bush and Obama meet with Saudis, etc., that's a stronger stance than even the US has.

ETA: Granted he's out of power now, but I don't think those two facts are related.