Tywin's Plan?

[Ramsay Gimp]

Tywin is convinced he can do literally anything. He can't respect any limits to his power, a trait he passed on to his children, all three of them. So, yes, he was convinced that he can pull that insane plan off.

That it looked more and more like the Starks/Tullys/Renly/Stannis planned a coup against the Lannisters in KL made it only more urgent.

How was it insane, given that all evidence indicates they were planning a coup (as you admit)? Would it have been "sane" to do nothing while his enemies gathered?

[JoeyBanana]

The Tullys through Catelyn had just arrested his son.

All Tywin knew was that his family was threathened, at this point, there was absolutely no reason to believe the Starks and Tullys prepared some kind of coup. If he had such a worry, it should have been about Renly and the Tyrells, but he didn't make a move against them at all.

It was meant to provoke Hoster into retaliation, hence no banners. Then he could safely argue the Tullys attacked him after taking his son hostage and with Ned captured, he could have leverage over them and Robert aswell. A Ned-Tyrion swap is of course also an option.

The plan has a big, gaping hole, though. If he takes Ned, how is he going to explain his capture? He would have to admit that Clegane acted on his orders and even if Hoster strikes back, he can't be painted as the aggressor anymore. If Ned dies or an actual Lannister-Tully war breaks out, what would he do? Did he count on Baratheon or some other support?

It doesn't really make sense unless he was going after the Tullys (and their bannermen) from the very start and Tyrion's arrest was just an excuse to do so. He had enough influence at court and with Robert to resolve it without these extreme measures.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Don't forget that attacking the King's Hand riding under the King's own banner would be ...appreciated by Robert in a very special way. Unless he was dead.

Robert was a weakling when it came to his wife's family

[JoeyBanana]

How was it insane, given that all evidence indicates they were planning a coup (as you admit)? Would it have been "sane" to do nothing while his enemies gathered?

A coup? What kind of coup? I'd like to see these "plans" of Ned and Catelyn, please.

[Ramsay Gimp]

A coup? What kind of coup? I'd like to see these "plans" of Ned and Catelyn, please.

Catelyn kidnaps Tyrion, with Tully soldiers. Ned Stark denounces Joffrey as soon as Robert dies (convenient) and then is arrested for planning treason with Robert's brothers. Renly flees King's Landing.

Look at it from Tywin's POV: He had to crush the Riverlands, before they joined forces with the Starks, their treasonous kin and allies

[JoeyBanana]

Catelyn kidnaps Tyrion, with Tully soldiers. Ned Stark denounces Joffrey as soon as Robert dies (convenient) and then is arrested for planning treason with Robert's brothers. Renly flees King's Landing.

Look at it from Tywin's POV: He had to crush the Riverlands, before they joined forces with the Starks, their treasonous kin and allies

But that was after the first raids which were supposed to lure Ned into a trap, iirc.

I'll give you Renly's plot, Stannis' suspicious actions, Tyrion's arrest, and Jon Arryn's death. Does that imply a potential coup to you? Maybe Tywin thought so, it's possible. It's more likely he just saw his family's power and influence threathened.

My idea was that he decided for war vs Tully/Stark before Robert died and Ned denounced Joffrey, which sounds like a weirdly risky and rash move for a pragmatic political player like Tywin.

[Ramsay Gimp]

But that was after the first raids which were supposed to lure Ned into a trap, iirc.

I thought we were talking about the actual invasion, which was after Robert's death. As for the initial raids, there was no proof he ordered them. I also don't think Tywin would have been punished for trading Ned for Tyrion. Robert always gave in to the Lannisters, was deep in their debt, and the Starks were guilty of the exact same thing.

it's either that or you go with "Tywin was crazy and wanted to start a war against all of Westeros"

[exp(ix)]

"The honor of our house was at stake. I had no choice but to ride. No man sheds Lannister blood with impunity."

Tywin wanted to openly punish the Riverlands for Tyrion's capture and get Tyrion released. He sent out raiding parties so that the River Lords' retaliation would justify the former, and was banking on Robert to enforce Tyrion's release as part of a peace deal, which would have happened if he didn't go on that hunting trip.

"You will command her to release the Dwarf at once, and you will make your peace with Jaime." ... "I am sick unto death of talk. On the morrow I'm going to the kingswood to hunt."

[Jasta11]

The idea was that Ned Stark would go and try to arrest Gregor with his men. In that event, Tywin would have captured Eddard, and traded him for Tyrion, and all would be well.

That plan did not go through when Jaime attacked Ned on the streets of KL, injuring him. It were Ned's injuries that caused him to remain in KL while letting others go and find Gregor in the Riverlands, to bring him to justice.

Robert might not be the man he was, but capturing his BFF while ravaging the Riverlands doesn't exactly seem the best idea if you want to remain on his good side, as Tywin had presumably no idea of the Regime Change Boar plan (at least we never get an echo of it). Plus, I'm not sure the North would be happy about their Lord Paramount being captured while flying the King's Banner. Tywin's plan seems to add fuel to the fire and little else.

And, Ned is a seasoned commander. I'm not sure Gregor could have easily fell upon him, let alone with enough surprise to easily capture him.

[smashedhalo]

Ned was known to be honorable to the point of near suicidal. It is well known he will swing the sword if he ordered it. So it would stand to reason he would lead the posse sent after the mountain. Already he has bucked heads with Bob over many things from the end of RR to present. And Like others have mentioned, King Bob stopped standing up to Cercie on almost everything.

While it can be disputed time line wise a mounted force can move with decent speed. Not bringing into account lannester gold. Send out a dozen riders to "hire" some people for small light work isn't out of Tywin's play book. He doesn't respect sellswords but doesn't balk at hiring them, case in point Brave Companions. He used the clans men that were bought with steel just to fold in the center.

While Tywin never comes out and says he knows of Cercie's actions, G-Maestars in his pocket. Jon Ayrne's inquiries wouldn't have gone unnoticed. King Bob had a pair of twins at the Rock. Most of lannisport is related to Lannesters in some way so i would guess blonde hair is a common trait there.

My thinking is that Tywin, while "hiding" under his Rock, was secretly gathering forces to liberate his children. Once King Bob was shown the proof the kids weren't his, he already couldn't believe Joffery was his because of Joffery's nature, good odds heads would roll and Tywin would be disgraced. Not to mention our favorite Imp the soul heir to the Rock. Tywin's weakness is his pride. He won't go off half-cocked, but he'll push back. Be it pay some folks to go raiding to have the right to counter attack the reprisal.

Also the one person that saw the mountain could have easily been bought off. Like this

"Hey barkeep,nice bar you have"

'I like to think so'

"Well, here's your options. A) we kill you, rape+kill your family, and burn the place down. B) we buy the place before we burn it, cost to rebuild+your story it was the tall guy. C) same as B but we kill a kid, of your choice, and pay a blood price for them to sell the story better. D) we wait for the mountain to get here later in the week, by the by he'll go with A."

'I'll take C. Kill timmy, he's just been a little sh*t lately. I'll get me good cloths"

*edit* and Tywin always refers to the mountain as his scary dog he lets of the leash. He could have tossed the mountain a bag of gold and let the lease go. Say what to will but shock and awe kinda works for a 7ft+ guy.

[Frey Pie]

I thought we were talking about the actual invasion, which was after Robert's death. As for the initial raids, there was no proof he ordered them. I also don't think Tywin would have been punished for trading Ned for Tyrion. Robert always gave in to the Lannisters, was deep in their debt, and the Starks were guilty of the exact same thing.

it's either that or you go with "Tywin was crazy and wanted to start a war against all of Westeros"

Pretty sure Robert would have to put down Tywin in some way if he'd attacked the riverlands, burnt it's people, attacked men under the King's banner and took the King's hand hostage. That's not just a slap in the face that a full mugging

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Tywin's plan was very reckless because it is based on Eddard Stark , a seasoned battle lord, falling for the plan like Beron did .A miscalculation would have Tywin facing Eddard and not some untried boy perhaps with the Iron Born 's fleet.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Also the one person that saw the mountain could have easily been bought off. Like this

"Hey barkeep,nice bar you have"

'I like to think so'

"Well, here's your options. A) we kill you, rape+kill your family, and burn the place down. B) we buy the place before we burn it, cost to rebuild+your story it was the tall guy. C) same as B but we kill a kid, of your choice, and pay a blood price for them to sell the story better. D) we wait for the mountain to get here later in the week, by the by he'll go with A."

'I'll take C. Kill timmy, he's just been a little sh*t lately. I'll get me good cloths"

*edit* and Tywin always refers to the mountain as his scary dog he lets of the leash. He could have tossed the mountain a bag of gold and let the lease go. Say what to will but shock and awe kinda works for a 7ft+ guy.

The brewer was lying. The Mountain didn't burn the village. Or at least not then:

"I keep... I kept... I kept an alehouse, m'lord, in Sherrer, by the stone bridge. The finest ale south of the Neck, everyone said so, begging your pardons, m'lord. It's gone now like all the rest, m'lord. They come and drank their fill and spilled the rest before they fired my roof, and they would of spilled my blood too, if they'd caught me. M'lord."

"They burnt us out," a farmer beside him said. "Come riding in the dark, up from the south, and fired the fields and the houses alike, killing them as tried to stop them. They weren't no raiders, though, m'lord. They had no mind to steal our stock, not these, they butchered my milk cow where she stood and left her for the flies and the crows."

The peasants contradict each other. Joss, the brewer, says they drank, fired his roof and chased him. The next guy says they came riding into town burning stuff right and left. Which was it?

Only Joss says it was the Mountain. Now, keep in mind Joss is talkative brewer:

The brewer, Joss, shook his head. "It grieves me, m'lord, but no, the armor they showed us was plain, only... the one who led them, he was armored like the rest, but there was no mistaking him all the same. It was the size of him, m'lord. Those as say the giants are all dead never saw this one, I swear. Big as an ox he was, and a voice like stone breaking."

So, we have a talkative brewer and the Mountain destroyed his alehouse. Now, let's compare to this story:

“After the Hand’s tourney, it were, before the war come,” Chiswyck was saying. “We were on our ways back west, seven of us with Ser Gregor. Raff was with me, and young Joss Stilwood, he’d squired for Ser in the lists. Well, we come on this pisswater river, running high on account there’d been rains. No way to ford, but there’s an alehouse near, so there we repair. Ser rousts the brewer and tells him to keep our horns full till the waters fall, and you should see the man’s pig eyes shine at the sight o’ silver. So he’s fetching us ale, him and his daughter, and poor thin stuff it is, no more’n brown piss, which don’t make me any happier, nor Ser neither. And all the time this brewer’s saying how glad he is to have us, custom being slow on account o’ them rains. The

fool won’t shut his yap, not him, though Ser is saying not a word, just brooding on the Knight o’ Pansies and that bugger’s trick he played. You can see how tight his mouth sits, so me and the other lads we know better’n to say a squeak to him, but this brewer he’s got to talk, he even asks how m’lord fared in the jousting. Ser just gave him this look.” Chiswyck cackled, quaffed his ale, and wiped the foam away with the back of his hand. “Meanwhile, this daughter of his has been fetching and pouring, a fat little thing, eighteen or so-”

Another talkative brewer that the Mountain wronged? Does the Mountain just hate talkative brewers?

Or was the it the same brewer and he is pinning it on the Mountain later at a different time?

[smashedhalo]

Another talkative brewer that the Mountain wronged? Does the Mountain just hate talkative brewers?

Or was the it the same brewer and he is pinning it on the Mountain later at a different time?

Time line works, guys roll through after the fact do some town level terror he has a way of getting after a lord that wronged him. Rape and pillage only is allowed when your "On the Clock" as it were. When the blood lust is up. Not when your just drinking. Kinda frowned on.

So stands to reason revenge for the assault, they have someone to blame, and it's not like the mountain was a paragon of virtue so who'd doubt it.

My main thought here is Tywin had a decent fighting force all but marching when everything went pear shaped. He also had a lot of guards in the city without real reason. My meaning yeah Cercie was there but that KG work and high ranking city watch, Jaime is a KG and has no need. Also he never got punished for fleeing the city to join Daddy. Bob just wants the hatchet buried.

All these troops really just makes me think Tywin was waiting for the other shoe to drop, his family hold up in maegors until he can get there. Then simply using the debt the crown owes to cow Robert to his wishes.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Looks like you don't know Tywin Lannister. His plans were pretty much get Ned, the Hand of the King and Lord Paramount of the North and exchange him for his (hated) son, so everybody sees that NOBODY MESSES UP WITH THE LANNISTER, NOT EVEN THE HAND OF THE KING AND FRIEND OF THE KING BECAUSE I'M A LION, HEAR ME ROAR AND I HAVE A SMALL DICK TOLERANCE TO CRITICISM.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Looks like you don't know Tywin Lannister. His plans were pretty much get Ned, the Hand of the King and Lord Paramount of the North and exchange him for his (hated) son, so everybody sees that NOBODY MESSES UP WITH THE LANNISTER, NOT EVEN THE HAND OF THE KING AND FRIEND OF THE KING BECAUSE I'M A LION, HEAR ME ROAR AND I HAVE A SMALL DICK TOLERANCE TO CRITICISM.

I think we can all agree that Tywin has a small dick, but I still don't think he ordered the Mountain to burn Sherrer. There's just too many holes in the story.

In fact, everything that has to do with House Darry has holes in it. I'm trying to wrap my head around that house, but I can't make sense of it yet.

But, the burning of Sherrer seems to have something to do with them.

It was Ser Raymun Darry, after all, that observed Eddard's "do it myself" attitude with execution. Tywin would know nothing about it.

It was Darry who pushed Joss the Brewer to speak, despite Sherrer being in Vance lands.

It was Darry who went along with the crew despite him not being ordered.

Then, the BWB brings up the Darry deaths with an extra "Lord Darry"

Its all weird.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Pretty sure Robert would have to put down Tywin in some way if he'd attacked the riverlands, burnt it's people, attacked men under the King's banner and took the King's hand hostage. That's not just a slap in the face that a full mugging

What do you mean by "attack the Riverlands" though? The raids, or the later battles?

Tywin only launched the actual invasion after King Robert's death. As for the raids and capture-exchange plan: it would be a full mugging against the Starks, yes, but Tywin would just say "they started it" and Robert would shrug it off. What's Robert gonna do, attaint him? March on the Rock?

[Good Guy Garlan]

What do you mean by "attack the Riverlands" though? The raids, or the later battles?

Tywin only launched the actual invasion after King Robert's death. As for the raids and capture-exchange plan: it would be a full mugging against the Starks, yes, but Tywin would just say "they started it" and Robert would shrug it off. What's Robert gonna do, attaint him? March on the Rock?

Yes, that's my understanding as well. Sending Gregor's men passing as simple brigands is a win-win situation: that not only causes Edmure's bannermen to scatter, but also makes it look like Ned's or Edmure's side attacked first, since no one could easily link the anonymous raids to Tywin. And if Ned goes to fight them, Gregor captures him and exchanges him for Tyrion.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Yes, that's my understanding as well. Sending Gregor's men passing as simple brigands is a win-win situation: that not only causes Edmure's bannermen to scatter, but also makes it look like Ned's or Edmure's side attacked first, since no one could easily link the anonymous raids to Tywin. And if Ned goes to fight them, Gregor captures him and exchanges him for Tyrion.

But that makes sense. Surely this can be better explained by saying Tywin was insane or just had a small dick!!

[Lost Melnibonean]

The idea was that Ned Stark would go and try to arrest Gregor with his men. In that event, Tywin would have captured Eddard, and traded him for Tyrion, and all would be well.

That plan did not go through when Jaime attacked Ned on the streets of KL, injuring him. It were Ned's injuries that caused him to remain in KL while letting others go and find Gregor in the Riverlands, to bring him to justice.

I'm not so sure that was it. I do think Tywin knew, or at least suspected, that Cersei was trying to kill Robert. To attack the Hand of the King would be tantamount to attacking the King, I would think.