Tywin's Plan?

[unitron]

Figuring out the books is hard enough without dragging some TV show into things.

[Lion of the West]

Anything not to give Tywin credit I guess

Pretty much. They would deny that Tywin can chew his own food or take on his own cloths if they got half a chance.

Didn't Tywin admit to the raids when talking with Tyrion? Or am I not recalling correctly?

As far as Robert always siding with Cersei. He didn't after the Joffrey-Arya incident, when Cersei wanted Arya punished. Nor did he side with her when he honored her and made Ned the Hand again. And that was minor compared to Tywin attacking the Tullys and then attacking the King's Hand who's delivering justice under the King's banners, for goodness' sake.

Robert also tells Ned that he needs him in order to release himself from the Lannister tentacles (I'm paraphrasin).

I am pretty sure that Tywin admits to going to war for Tyrion's release.

But then again Robert didn't do anything to Joffrey despite knowing the prince was lying and he did order Lady to be killed, and then he didn't do anything after Jaime had Eddard's guards killed like Eddard wanted.. Robert is always backing down infront of the Lannisters, and when he don't back down completely he just backs down half-way. If he backs down when Jaime kills Eddard's guards and wounds his best friend, why would he suddenly stand up when Tywin march on Riverrun? If Robert is so anxious to test his steel against the West then he would have had a splendid example with Jaime's attack. He goes hunting instead.

When does Robert tell Eddard he needs him against the Lannisters? I don't recall the scene.

[The Fallen]

It was Eddard VII:

Robert slapped Ned on the back. "Ah, say that I'm a better king than Aerys and be done with it. You never could lie for love nor honor, Ned Stark. I'm still young, and now that you're here with me, things will be different. We'll make this a reign to sing of, and damn the Lannisters to seven hells. ..."

It seems that Robert is aware of how he's ruled and the effect that the Lannisters have had on his reign. This was during the Tourney of the Hand. It's not ground breaking, but it shows that he wanted to extricate himself from them.

By the way, that was also Cersei's biggest fear; Robert coming under Ned's influence.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But then again Robert didn't do anything to Joffrey despite knowing the prince was lying and he did order Lady to be killed, and then he didn't do anything after Jaime had Eddard's guards killed like Eddard wanted.. Robert is always backing down infront of the Lannisters, and when he don't back down completely he just backs down half-way. If he backs down when Jaime kills Eddard's guards and wounds his best friend, why would he suddenly stand up when Tywin march on Riverrun? If Robert is so anxious to test his steel against the West then he would have had a splendid example with Jaime's attack. He goes hunting instead.

In the case in question, Robert can't back down anymore. Open war between at least three regions? As well roll over and invite the Targaryens back.

Robert must choose a side and punish the other for treason. And he is far more likely to back Ned.

[Arakan]

An urgent question: if we assume that Tywin started to muster his army after the Catnapping of Tyrion, what does that tell about Tywin?

1) was he really prepared to declare open war against the North/Riverlands, while Robert was still sitting the Throne?

2) was he somehow aware that Robert was to be removed from the Throne?

re 1) an underlying assumption is that he did muster his armies not only as "show of force" but was ready to deploy them

Of course if he basically started to muster his main forces after Robert's death, it's a completely different scenario and leads to a completely different character assessment.

In case 1) is true then Tywin seemed to scorn the IT, Robert and the the Royal power alltogether. Was he really that kind of an hasardeur?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, he immediately mustered it. Given that he led 35,000 men into the Riverlands mere days after Robert's death, there is no other way.

[Arakan]

Yes, he immediately mustered it. Given that he led 35,000 men into the Riverlands mere days after Robert's death, there is no other way.

Yes, it is the most reasonable assumption but was he just an incredible gambler, risking to start a civil war and to be outlawed by the IT or was he aware that Robert's days on the IT were finished?

If the latter is excluded, it leaves me to the following evaluation:

1) he disregarded the power of the IT and Robert in particular, i.e. no unacceptable risk for him and his House to be outlawed by starting a major civil war in Westeros

2) he disregarded the reactions of the other Great Houses by starting a major civil war in Westeros

Was he really that delusional? Later chapters and interactions paint him as quite a reasonable risk taker.

It makes things so much more consistent if he was aware that a major change in office was under way.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Even if he knew that Cersei would try to assassinate Robert, that movement is suicidal. North, Riverlands, Vale, Dragonstone, Stormlands, Reach and Dorne are all anti-Lannister at the moment and the North got a good grip to force the Iron Islands into line.

The only advantage the Lannisters had was Robert. Offing him before dealing with most of the enemies... not what you'd call prudent.

And damn, the way Cersei went about assassinating Robert and securing KL was incompetent.

So yes, Tywin is delusional. He got some triggers, what he perceives to be the honor of his House, push them and he goes berserk regardless of the chances.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The fact that he already had all of his forces means that he was simply waiting for a chance to get ride of Robert, and that was always his main plan. Unless of course we choose to believe that he wanted to make his daughter Queen because he wanted her happy. A Queen and an heir would, at some point, give him full control of Westeros when such King dies.

Megalomaniac bastard...

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The fact that he already had all of his forces means that he was simply waiting for a chance to get ride of Robert, and that was always his main plan. Unless of course we choose to believe that he wanted to make his daughter Queen because he wanted her happy. A Queen and an heir would, at some point, give him full control of Westeros when such King dies.

Megalomaniac bastard...

Sure, but: A smart guy would have gotten rid of all the other rivals before offing the king. Especially with that power constellation.

[The Fallen]

Let's say Tywin had captured Ned. With Robert alive, a deal can be brokered, assuming he can come up with a reasonable justification that allows Robert to save face. Robert can have the other regions stand down. Without Robert there's nothing to stop the other regions from acting, which is what ends up happening. We know Tywin is arrogant, but he doesn't come across as delusional.

Is there any reference to Tywin ever knowing that Robert's death wasn't an accident?

And Tywin's initial moves happen before Ned makes any of his moves.

Lastly, would Cersei have told Tywin that Ned was set on denouncing her, Jaime and the children. Because the follow-up would be why the honorable Ned would do such a thing? Which means she then has to bring up the incest and that was something Cersei was trying to avoid at all costs. Of course, she can deny it and call it lies. But this is Tywin, not exactly a fool. Or maybe Tywin always knew, which I don't think is the case.

[The Frosted King]

How was Robert going to punish Jaime when the shit made sure to murder Neds men and promptly flee the city immediately afterwards?

Tywin was banking alot on Roberts indifference.

I don't really think this point is arguable.

[Gendry_Goldeneyes]

Looks like you don't know Tywin Lannister. His plans were pretty much get Ned, the Hand of the King and Lord Paramount of the North and exchange him for his (hated) son, so everybody sees that NOBODY MESSES UP WITH THE LANNISTER, NOT EVEN THE HAND OF THE KING AND FRIEND OF THE KING BECAUSE I'M A LION, HEAR ME ROAR AND I HAVE A SMALL DICK TOLERANCE TO CRITICISM.

underrated post

[Arakan]

Even if he knew that Cersei would try to assassinate Robert, that movement is suicidal. North, Riverlands, Vale, Dragonstone, Stormlands, Reach and Dorne are all anti-Lannister at the moment and the North got a good grip to force the Iron Islands into line.

The only advantage the Lannisters had was Robert. Offing him before dealing with most of the enemies... not what you'd call prudent.

And damn, the way Cersei went about assassinating Robert and securing KL was incompetent.

So yes, Tywin is delusional. He got some triggers, what he perceives to be the honor of his House, push them and he goes berserk regardless of the chances.

I agree that the only way to describe Tywin's action prior to the full outbreak of the war is delusional.

And this is where I get a problem. Because afterwards, his actions seem quite rational. He is trying to build alliances etc. Even the muster of his army needed a rational-thinking Tywin, a huge logistic task. Total bersek mode is not really helpful.

I just find it hard to bring those two sides together. It's as if we are speaking of two different characters.

Well it is as it is.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Didn't Tywin admit to the raids when talking with Tyrion? Or am I not recalling correctly?

As far as Robert always siding with Cersei. He didn't after the Joffrey-Arya incident, when Cersei wanted Arya punished. Nor did he side with her when he honored her and made Ned the Hand again. And that was minor compared to Tywin attacking the Tullys and then attacking the King's Hand who's delivering justice under the King's banners, for goodness' sake.

Robert also tells Ned that he needs him in order to release himself from the Lannister tentacles (I'm paraphrasin).

This.

How was Robert going to punish Jaime when the shit made sure to murder Neds men and promptly flee the city immediately afterwards?

That was the whole point of Jaime running.

Plus, there's a big difference between get into an argument with Ned that got out of hand, no pun intended (Jaime didn't attack Ned personally) and set an ambush to kidnap the Hand of the King while he's carrying the King's banner. Even more if he had Ned killed.

Also, Tywin's plan banked on Gregor being a better commander than Ned...

[smashedhalo]

I can't see how he didn't know Cercie's kids weren't King Bob's. The twins born in lannesport plus the info that pyceill told him Jon Aryne was looking at.

Personally i think he was raising armies since the trip north to make Ned hand. An old man dying of a sickness, not really looked into. He also had a annoying wife and a seizure prone kid that the court couldn't stand. Not to mention she did it so a inquiry would swing her way. Jon probably bounced the idea off lysa, who told LF, who started watching Jon to see where he got. Then sold it to Cercie with a fix. Pycell dismissed the marster that was purging him of the poisons.

But say Ned dies, in the prime of his life questions get raised.

Also moving 35,000 troops is hard to do now, let along in this technological age portrayed. Even if all the banners were ready for assembly the logistic support would be a nightmare. I still posit he was doing it beforehand just waiting for a place to go

[Lost Melnibonean]

I know that's what Tywin tells us, but isn't there a bit of a plot hole here. Jamie leaves the city and reports to Tywin after attacking Ned. Shouldn't he have told his father that Ned was hurt. I mean the guys horse fell on top of him. Most people just don't walk something like that off.

Didn't Jaime bail before the Ned's horse fell on his leg? If he left the city directly, he might not have known the extent of the Ned's injury.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Let's say Tywin had captured Ned. With Robert alive, a deal can be brokered, assuming he can come up with a reasonable justification that allows Robert to save face. Robert can have the other regions stand down. Without Robert there's nothing to stop the other regions from acting, which is what ends up happening. We know Tywin is arrogant, but he doesn't come across as delusional.

Nope, a deal isn't possible anymore as soon as Ned rides out under the King's banner. Either Ned seriously overstepped his authority and has to be executed for treason, or Tywin attacked the King himself and has to be executed for treason.

Is there any reference to Tywin ever knowing that Robert's death wasn't an accident?

As far as I know, no.

And Tywin's initial moves happen before Ned makes any of his moves.

Lastly, would Cersei have told Tywin that Ned was set on denouncing her, Jaime and the children. Because the follow-up would be why the honorable Ned would do such a thing? Which means she then has to bring up the incest and that was something Cersei was trying to avoid at all costs. Of course, she can deny it and call it lies. But this is Tywin, not exactly a fool. Or maybe Tywin always knew, which I don't think is the case.

Probably not.

I agree that the only way to describe Tywin's action prior to the full outbreak of the war is delusional.

And this is where I get a problem. Because afterwards, his actions seem quite rational. He is trying to build alliances etc. Even the muster of his army needed a rational-thinking Tywin, a huge logistic task. Total bersek mode is not really helpful.

I just find it hard to bring those two sides together. It's as if we are speaking of two different characters.

Well it is as it is.

Tywin isn't frothing mad, he can act methodically and rational - inside the confines of his superiority complex and his narcissm. He's got the education and the experience for that. But his motivations are entirely emotional.

[Chaircat Meow]

Hi there,

I still don't quite understand what Tywin's overall plan was when he invaded the Riverlands. He didn't know Robert was going to die, or presumably that he just happened to go out hunting at the same time that news of what was happening was coming out. How was he going to explain conquering most of the Riverlands?

Why do you assume he didn't? Cersei, according to Varys, had been planning to kill Robert at the melee which occurred at roughly the same time as the Catnap. If Robert died Cersei would need military support against Stannis/Renly and Ned so she'd have had to have told her father on some level, and Pycelle probably would too.

We got a clue this happened from 2 things.

1. Tywin consented to foster Sweetrobin, having never taken a ward before. We know this was down to shut Lysa up and threaten the Vale.

2. When Tywin sends Tyrion to KL his complaints are all about things that happened after Robert dies; he never seems fazed that he started one war that turned into something else, which suggests the war he fought was the one he planned all along.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Why do you assume he didn't? Cersei, according to Varys, had been planning to kill Robert at the melee which occurred at roughly the same time as the Catnap. If Robert died Cersei would need military support against Stannis/Renly and Ned so she'd have had to have told her father on some level, and Pycelle probably would too.

We got a clue this happened from 2 things.

1. Tywin consented to foster Sweetrobin, having never taken a ward before. We know this was down to shut Lysa up and threaten the Vale.

2. When Tywin sends Tyrion to KL his complaints are all about things that happened after Robert dies; he never seems fazed that he started one war that turned into something else, which suggests the war he fought was the one he planned all along.

I think everyone in the world knew war was extremely likely except for the lovable dunces of Robert and Ned. Pycelle certainly knew about Jamie and Cersei and let Jon Arryn die as a result. If Pycelle knew, Tywin likely knew. That, along with the attempted fostering of Sweetrobin and the fact that Tywin had already hired the Brave Companions are proof of that Tywin was taking action.

That said, I don't believe Tywin ever had a plan to capture Ned. I don't even believe the Mountain was responsible for burning Sherrer (too many holes and oddities). I'm not sure why the word of the Brotherhood Without Banners, who know nothing about Tywin, should be believed.