US Politics: The Day After The Political Earthquake

[Shryke]

Just trying to throw some sunshine into the gloom.

A small backtrack is quite different from the series of open proclamations made in the last couple years. And the regular introduction of legislation rebuking the War on Drugs and intolerance of gays. The mood is substantially different than a few years ago.

I do agree about the other factors, Shryke, though I think the seeds of our current political and economic malaise were planted in the late 60's with Nixon and were watered to fruition under Reagan. What worries me most is not the gridlock, as that is a given, but the Supreme Court, which has enabled these trends to horrifying levels.

Well yeah, it goes back further. The 80s is just when it created a full-scale realignment that we are still living with today.

[awesome possum]

Some positives from last night

San Francisco voted to raise the minimum wage to $15/hr

Alaska voted to legalize marijuana

There are 100 women in Congress for the first time ever

Pro-lifers have forced 5 personhood amendments onto ballots since 2008. All five have failed.

And today Missouri's gay marriage ban was struck down

*mod hat* I've also already given a couple of folks a few days off because they simply refused to listen to our requests to cut this shit out. We are both serious. Stop the crap. Or we will stop it for you. TP might have some patience left in his well but mine has gone rather dry. */mod hat*

I always find myself curious about the trainwreck I missed, while also being glad that I wasn't part of it (for once).

[TerraPrime]

As a talking point, in Illinois, there were 3 advisory (i.e. non-binding) ballot initiaties. First one says to raise extra 3% on income above 1 million dollars to be ear-marked for public education. Another advisory referendum says to raise minimum wage to $10/hr by Jan 1, 2015. A third referendum says to mandate inclusion of contraceptive coverage for healthcare plans' prescription drug coverage being offered in Illinois.

All 3 of these advisory referenda passed by 66% or so.

Yet, Rauner, a candidate who first said he would eliminate minimum wage but who changed his tune 4 weeks away from election to say that he would support minimum wage adjustment if there are other tax cuts to "off set," who has been running under a banner of privatizing education, who belongs to a party that routinely slut-shames women for wanting contraceptive coverage and which enthusiastically throw up barriers against women's health decisions, won the election by 51% to his opponent's 46%. Assuming all 46% who voted for Quinn voted for the 3 referenda, that still leaves 20% of supportive vote coming from Raunter-voters. So there are some 20% of voters who voted for a candidate who starkly opposes the referenda items that the same 11% voters supported.

Sense? It made none at all.

[peterbound]

Some positives from last night

San Francisco voted to raise the minimum wage to $15/hr

Alaska voted to legalize marijuana

There are 100 women in Congress for the first time ever

Pro-lifers have forced 5 personhood amendments onto ballots since 2008. All five have failed.

And today Missouri's gay marriage ban was struck down

I always find myself curious about the trainwreck I missed, while also being glad that I wasn't part of it (for once).

Was weed ever /not/ legal in the AK?

[karaddin]

There are 100 women in Congress for the first time ever

It's depressing that just under 25% is a new record. Also depressing is that my country is barely above this for the house, more depressing is only 1 woman in a cabinet of 20 here.

[Commodore]

Ted Cruz laid out a governing agenda for 2015. Impeachment and shutdowns are missing for some reason. Hopefully Obama will not be an obstructionist.

GOP Congress becoming more diverse.

Mia Love, first black GOP congresswoman

Tim Scott, first black senator from The South since Reconstruction

Elise Stefanik, youngest woman ever elected to Congress

Rep. elect Colonel Martha McSally, first female combat pilot

Lt. Colonel Joni Erst, first woman ever elected to Congress from Iowa

Carl DeMaio, first openly gay Republican elected to Congress

[Shryke]

As a talking point, in Illinois, there were 3 advisory (i.e. non-binding) ballot initiaties. First one says to raise extra 3% on income above 1 million dollars to be ear-marked for public education. Another advisory referendum says to raise minimum wage to $10/hr by Jan 1, 2015. A third referendum says to mandate inclusion of contraceptive coverage for healthcare plans' prescription drug coverage being offered in Illinois.

All 3 of these advisory referenda passed by 66% or so.

Yet, Rauner, a candidate who first said he would eliminate minimum wage but who changed his tune 4 weeks away from election to say that he would support minimum wage adjustment if there are other tax cuts to "off set," who has been running under a banner of privatizing education, who belongs to a party that routinely slut-shames women for wanting contraceptive coverage and which enthusiastically throw up barriers against women's health decisions, won the election by 51% to his opponent's 46%. Assuming all 46% who voted for Quinn voted for the 3 referenda, that still leaves 20% of supportive vote coming from Raunter-voters. So there are some 20% of voters who voted for a candidate who starkly opposes the referenda items that the same 11% voters supported.

Sense? It made none at all.

It all makes sense once you can fathom the idea that the policies of a candidate are not always why people vote for them.

After all, there's the Crazification Factor if nothing else.

[1918me]

Sologdin,

I'll still be surprised if that tack is taken.

Yeah, it seems to me like an easy line of rhetoric to fall into, but I can't imagine impeachment being particularly politically helpful to the GOP.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

Ted Cruz laid out a governing agenda for 2015. Impeachment and shutdowns are missing for some reason. Hopefully Obama will not be an obstructionist.

GOP Congress becoming more diverse.

Mia Love, first black GOP congresswoman

Tim Scott, first black senator from The South since Reconstruction

Elise Stefanik, youngest woman ever elected to Congress

Rep. elect Colonel Martha McSally, first female combat pilot

Lt. Colonel Joni Erst, first woman ever elected to Congress from Iowa

Carl DeMaio, first openly gay Republican elected to Congress

Barry's already threatening to bypass the legislative branch to pass immigration reform.

[Summah]

What I'm taking this to mean is that because the nation is slowly, agonizingly, taking steps towards decency, the old people punished the democrats.

As a layman, that seems a bit like blind hope. Like you're hoping that in fifteen years a bunch of those people will be dead or catatonic and the younger minorities will assume their place. While that seems like a nice thought to me, I have to wonder at its plausibility. Of course, I admit beforehand my lack of knowledge in this area, I'm curious to see proof of your projection or proof of the opposite.

Projected demographics do not support whites maintaining a majority of the population for more than about 30 more years. Although if groups currently considered not white start to be considered white this could change.

From the US census:

The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060.

The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation's total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period.

Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives would increase by more than half from now to 2060, from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, with their share of the total population edging up from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million over the same period.

The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority.

All in all, minorities, now 37 percent of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 percent of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html

As things currently stand these trends do not look good for Republicans.

[peterbound]

Barry's already threatening to bypass the legislative branch to pass immigration reform.

Here's the thing. You may not respect the man, but respect the office. That barry shit makes you look like a child.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

Here's the thing. You may not respect the man, but respect the office. That barry shit makes you look like a child.

? He goes by Barry. How is that not respecting the office?

[peterbound]

? He goes by Barry. How is that not respecting the office?

He's the President, and you and I both know what you were going for there.

Again, respect the rank/position, even if you don't respect the man. To do otherwise makes you seem.. petty.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

He's the President, and you and I both know what you were going for there.

Again, respect the rank/position, even if you don't respect the man. To do otherwise makes you seem.. petty.

You're overreacting

[Shryke]

re: Impeachment

They are already trying to sue him, remember?

They are already willing to basically impeach by another name in hopes that this way it will be less horribly unpopular.

[peterbound]

You're overreacting

Maybe, but it's a sticking point for me.

We get caught up in all this crazy bullshit, we forget that it's a great system, and one that deserves respect. You get that, right? It's not just about wins and loses, its about protecting the honor, tradition, and power of the position and institution.

I wasn't the biggest fan of GW, but I never forgot that he was the President. Capital 'P'. Not George, not Walker. We've lost sight of that. Maybe Obama doesn't make as big of a deal about the pomp and ceremony or maybe people just don't give a shit about what the station represents, but you should try to represent the values you espouse, and show some respect.

[awesome possum]

I'd agree but with my now obnoxious caveat that this is uncertain territory.

I do feel confident that there will be a sentiment in circles within the GOP to go after impeachment that will not be insignificant, but my hunch is that cooler heads will prevail.

Shit, as a shameless Dem, I pretty much want impeachment in the "Please don't throw me in the briar patch" school of thought. But I'd agree with you that I'll be surprised if it actually comes to that.

I saw an article earlier calling on Obama to use the executive branch to pass immigration reform and basically dare the GOP to flip out and try to impeach.

Ted Cruz laid out a governing agenda for 2015. Impeachment and shutdowns are missing for some reason. Hopefully Obama will not be an obstructionist.

Yeah, can't see any reason why Obama would want to prevent Obamacare from being repealed. But hey, big ups on your messaging. You've always been an A+ player when it comes to the latest brand of messaging.

[Starkess]

I wish I could sig the entirety of Ini's closing post in the last thread.

Ted Cruz laid out a governing agenda for 2015. Impeachment and shutdowns are missing for some reason. Hopefully Obama will not be an obstructionist.

Yeah, but he also can't wait to get started launching a series of hearings on every slight he can think of. He's obsessed with repealing Obamacare, even though that isn't feasible and he has no solution for replacement. Plus he's never been honest about his role in the shutdown, instead attempting to blame it on Reid and Obama, so I won't hold my breath that he wouldn't try it again.

[Ormond]

It all makes sense once you can fathom the idea that the policies of a candidate are not always why people vote for them.

After all, there's the Crazification Factor if nothing else.

There's also the fact that voting on a single issue referendum is a very different proposition than voting for a candidate.

Most people who show up to vote are going to cast votes on the referendums even if they aren't on issues they care strongly about. So the great majority of people in Illinois favored the issues in these three propositions. That does NOT mean that they think these issues are particularly important priorities for the government one way or the other. A "yes" vote on the minimum wage does NOT mean that it's something you really care strongly about. It could mean "Oh, yeah, that's a nice idea" without it being anything the voter really thinks is important enough that a candidate's position on it should be a meaningful deciding factor in whether or not to vote for him or her.

[Sivin]

Projected demographics do not support whites maintaining a majority of the population for more than about 30 more years. Although if groups currently considered not white start to be considered white this could change.

From the US census:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html

As things currently stand these trends do not look good for Republicans.

Hmm, I will not post my initial response to this because I'm the first to admit that it's racially... insensitive, but I'm both not swayed that that projection will change much, and am not particularly looking forward to the 20 year wait that it's advocating.

Maybe, but it's a sticking point for me.

We get caught up in all this crazy bullshit, we forget that it's a great system, and one that deserves respect. You get that, right? It's not just about wins and loses, its about protecting the honor, tradition, and power of the position and institution.

I wasn't the biggest fan of GW, but I never forgot that he was the President. Capital 'P'. Not George, not Walker. We've lost sight of that. Maybe Obama doesn't make as big of a deal about the pomp and ceremony or maybe people just don't give a shit about what the station represents, but you should try to represent the values you espouse, and show some respect.

Brother, this is not the time or place for the enforcement of an antiquated rank structure. Politicians are (supposed to be) public servants, and are owed no more respect than the waiter delivering my food. If the waiter does a good job, I'll tip more out of respect, if I think he's spitting in my food, I'll try to get him fired.

While I think the guy you're responding to is an idiot, I must defend his right to call the President whatever the fuck he wants.