R+L=J v.114

[sj4iy]

I think the point here is that Jon's looking like Ned does not make it impossible that he is Rhaegar's son, it is just a factor that could be considered to make it less likely.

...but it DOESN'T make it less likely at all. There have been many trueborn and bastard born Targaryen children who only have partial or no Valyrian looks at all.

The Appendix to AGOT says:

This is shown in the physical descriptions of Dany and Viserys in AGOT. It is shown in the descriptions of Aerys and Rhaegar in the HOTU vision in ACOK.

We also see that all the Lannisters have golden hair and all the Baratheons have black hair.

At some point we learn that, while Prince Aegon has the Targ looks, Princess Rhaenys does not. We also see that, while virtually all the descendants of Daeron the Good have Targ looks, one of his sons (Baelor Breakspear) does not. So in some circumstances, a Targ/Martell marriage could result in a baby who looks like a Martell. Meanwhile, so far as we know, every Targ king has had purple eyes and silver or gold hair.

Next, the TPATQ introduces Rhaenyra's three "Strong" children, who don't look like Targs, alongside Queen Alicent (Hightower's) children from Viserys who do look like Targs.

Finally, on the Stark side, we see from Ned/Catelyn that, four out of five times, the Tully looks come through at the expense of the Stark looks.

So the evidence is:

1. Families in Westeros, particularly the Targs, are known for having a distinctive "look"

2. Rhaegar had the Targ look.

3. The vast majority of children born to one Targ parent and one non-Targ parent look like Targs, although a minority of children of Targ/Non-Targ unions do not.

4. Ned, Benjen and Lyanna all had the Stark look.

5. The majority of children (that we know of) born of Stark/Non-Stark parents look like the non-Stark parent.

This, there is a high probability, but not a certainty, that a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna would look like a Targ.

Your reasoning is highly flawed. There has never been a union between Targaryen and Stark, so you can't possibly say that "Targaryen features would win out" based on a union between the Tullys and the Starks. It's obvious that the 'seed' is NOT strong with the Targaryens as many of their features get masked when they are joined with other houses, say, like the Martells.

This line of reasoning has been utterly and thoroughly discredited. I don't know why people attempt to bring it up over and over again.

A partial list of people who DON'T have typical Valyrian looks:

Jacaerys Velaryon

Lucerys Velaryon

Joffrey Velaryon

Aegor Rivers (Bittersteel)

Brynden Rivers (Bloodraven)

Shiera Seastar

Baelor “Breakspear” Targaryen

Valarr Targaryen

Daeron Targaryen

Rhaenys Targaryen

Elaena Targaryen

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think the point here is that Jon's looking like Ned does not make it impossible that he is Rhaegar's son, it is just a factor that could be considered to make it less likely.

The Appendix to AGOT says:

This is shown in the physical descriptions of Dany and Viserys in AGOT. It is shown in the descriptions of Aerys and Rhaegar in the HOTU vision in ACOK.

We also see that all the Lannisters have golden hair and all the Baratheons have black hair.

At some point we learn that, while Prince Aegon has the Targ looks, Princess Rhaenys does not. We also see that, while virtually all the descendants of Daeron the Good have Targ looks, one of his sons (Baelor Breakspear) does not. So in some circumstances, a Targ/Martell marriage could result in a baby who looks like a Martell. Meanwhile, so far as we know, every Targ king has had purple eyes and silver or gold hair.

Next, the TPATQ introduces Rhaenyra's three "Strong" children, who don't look like Targs, alongside Queen Alicent (Hightower's) children from Viserys who do look like Targs.

Finally, on the Stark side, we see from Ned/Catelyn that, four out of five times, the Tully looks come through at the expense of the Stark looks.

So the evidence is:

1. Families in Westeros, particularly the Targs, are known for having a distinctive "look"

2. Rhaegar had the Targ look.

3. The vast majority of children born to one Targ parent and one non-Targ parent look like Targs, although a minority of children of Targ/Non-Targ unions do not.

4. Ned, Benjen and Lyanna all had the Stark look.

5. The majority of children (that we know of) born of Stark/Non-Stark parents look like the non-Stark parent.

This, there is a high probability, but not a certainty, that a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna would look like a Targ.

Important to remember is that in a lot of Targ/Non-Targ marriages, the Non-Targ had Targaryen ancestry, and thus Valyrian looks.

[sabrecmc]

This, there is a high probability, but not a certainty, that a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna would look like a Targ.

The whole argument about Jon not having Targ looks just seems odd to me...he doesn't have Targ looks b/c that would be a dead giveaway. I mean, it isn't a genetics thing, not really, whatever completely made-up Westerosi genetics there might be in GRRM's mind. It's a story thing. The author needs him to not look like a Targ, so *waves magic author hands* he doesn't.

[sj4iy]

The whole argument about Jon not having Targ looks just seems odd to me...he doesn't have Targ looks b/c that would be a dead giveaway. I mean, it isn't a genetics thing, not really, whatever completely made-up Westerosi genetics there might be in GRRM's mind. It's a story thing. The author needs him to not look like a Targ, so *waves magic author hands* he doesn't.

Well, the author didn't make it 'magically happen', though, because he inserted many, many examples of Targaryens without Targaryen looks. He could have made it where the Targ looks always won out, but he didn't, so there's no feasible reason to say that Jon can't be a Targaryen or that it's 'less likely'.

Of course, it was a matter of survival for Jon, in any case. Had he looked like a Targaryen, he would have been dead. Fate intervened.

[The Twinslayer]

The whole argument about Jon not having Targ looks just seems odd to me...he doesn't have Targ looks b/c that would be a dead giveaway. I mean, it isn't a genetics thing, not really, whatever completely made-up Westerosi genetics there might be in GRRM's mind. It's a story thing. The author needs him to not look like a Targ, so *waves magic author hands* he doesn't.

I think there is a little more to it than that. Remember, this is a book in which Jon Arryn, Stannis, and Ned all make life-or-death decisions based on Joffrey having blond hair instead of black hair.

There may be an element of the author trying to divert the readers' attention from Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is also going to make people (like Dany, for example) skeptical that Jon is part-Targ.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I think there is a little more to it than that. Remember, this is a book in which Jon Arryn, Stannis, and Ned all make life-or-death decisions based on Joffrey having blond hair instead of black hair.

There may be an element of the author trying to divert the readers' attention from Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is also going to make people (like Dany, for example) skeptical that Jon is part-Targ.

Most of Westeros never makes the connection that the blond hair means the children are not Baratheons, so there is no reason to assume Dany would think that way. But even if she did, so what? Who ever said it would be easy to prove to her? And the blond hair issue was a situation where EVERY child with at least one Baratheon parent had dark hair. There were no exceptions at all. That is not true for the Targs. But you are straying from your original point. Originally, you argued it made it less likely to be a Targ parent. Now you are shifted to harder to convince others of a Targ parent--a completely different point.

[JonSnow4President]

I think there is a little more to it than that. Remember, this is a book in which Jon Arryn, Stannis, and Ned all make life-or-death decisions based on Joffrey having blond hair instead of black hair.

There may be an element of the author trying to divert the readers' attention from Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is also going to make people (like Dany, for example) skeptical that Jon is part-Targ.

Those life and death decisions were the result of the Baratheon black beating the Lannister gold every single time in recorded history. As others have shown, Targaryen genes are far from that level of dominance.

:ninja: 'd

[sabrecmc]

Oh, I agree that GRRM put things in there about Targs who don't have the silver/violet combo to make the point that not all Targs do, leaving the door open for people who don't look like that to be secret Targs. But as to why JON himself (and quite possibly Tyrion, ugh) doesn't have that look...because he can't. Would be too easy. I mean, I've literally seen posts discussing recessive and dominant genes. People...just no. I admire the effort and dedication, but geez.

[The Twinslayer]

Most of Westeros never makes the connection that the blond hair means the children are not Baratheons, so there is no reason to assume Dany would think that way. But even if she did, so what? Who ever said it would be easy to prove to her? And the blond hair issue was a situation where EVERY child with at least one Baratheon parent had dark hair. There were no exceptions at all. That is not true for the Targs. But you are straying from your original point. Originally, you argued it made it less likely to be a Targ parent. Now you are shifted to harder to convince others of a Targ parent--a completely different point.

I think the second point follows from the first. Point 1: the vast majority of people with one Targaryen parent have Targaryen features (after all, their heritage is "proclaimed" by those features), making it more likely than not that a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna would have Targaryen features, and less likely that Jon is part-Targ. Point 2: Jon does not have Targaryen features, so people like Dany will be skeptical of any claim that he is a child of Rhaegar.

Think about it like this. If Jon had purple eyes, that would increase the odds that he was part-Targaryen, right? The only other possibililties would then be that he had a Dayne or a Velaryon parent. But with Stark features, his non-Stark parent could be anyone in the world.

[Erudain]

Another funny quote for your signature...(regretfully I don't have the book at hand to look at the exact quote)

In CoK, Jon is about to behead Ygitte because as Ned always told him "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword"....and Jon starts having doubts....inside his head he self-reproaches "you are your father son....aren't you? aren't you???"

I can totally see GRRM with a smile whiel writting those lines lol...

[sj4iy]

Oh, I agree that GRRM put things in there about Targs who don't have the silver/violet combo to make the point that not all Targs do, leaving the door open for people who don't look like that to be secret Targs. But as to why JON himself (and quite possibly Tyrion, ugh) doesn't have that look...because he can't. Would be too easy. I mean, I've literally seen posts discussing recessive and dominant genes. People...just no. I admire the effort and dedication, but geez.

Yup. The author said "This wouldn't work if he looked like a Targ, so he's going to look like a Stark".

Pretty much the long and the short of it. To his credit, he put in there that the Targ looks don't always win out, so it seems credible.

[sj4iy]

Another funny quote for your signature...(regretfully I don't have the book at hand to look at the exact quote)

In CoK, Jon is about to behead Ygitte because as Ned always told him "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword"....and Jon starts having doubts....inside his head he self-reproaches "you are your father son....aren't you? aren't you???"

I can totally see GRRM with a smile whiel writting those lines lol...

...did Rhaegar behead someone?

Sorry, I'm not following the line of thought- could you explain?

(I do appreciate any help finding all of the quotes, though)

[JonSnow4President]

...did Rhaegar behead someone?

Sorry, I'm not following the line of thought- could you explain?

(I do appreciate any help finding all of the quotes, though)

My guess is it's asking himself whether he's Ned's son, because he isn't.

[Erudain]

Nope, my line of thinkg goes this way.

Jon, Halfhand & Co. have captured Ygritte.
Since Jon captured her he offers himself to be the one to execute her (because as Ned always told him "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword").
But when he has her on her knees, Longclaw over her neck, he starts having doubts....and he tries to convince himself to do it by saying "you are your father son....aren't you? aren't you???"

Which of course is funny, because he is not Ned son...

[sj4iy]

Nope, my line of thinkg goes this way.

Jon, Halfhand & Co. have captured Ygritte.

Since Jon captured her he offers himself to be the one to execute her (because as Ned always told him "The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword").

But when he has her on her knees, Longclaw over her neck, he starts having doubts....and he tries to convince himself to do it by saying "you are your father son....aren't you? aren't you???"

Which of course is funny, because he is not Ned son...

Ahh, gotcha now. Thanks :)

[UnmaskedLurker]

I think the second point follows from the first. Point 1: the vast majority of people with one Targaryen parent have Targaryen features (their heritage is "proclaimed" by those features), making it more likely than not that a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna would have Targaryen features, and less likely that Jon is part-Targ. Point 2: Jon does not have Targaryen features, so people like Dany will be skeptical of any claim that he is a child of Rhaegar.

But the vast majority of people never thought that Robert's children were not really his. Maybe they should have--but they did not. Either way--this issue only relates to whether Jon can prove who he is. I admit that might be difficult. But as to the original question of whether Jon really is likely or not likely to be a Targ--I think the evidence that Rhaegar is his father is overwhelming and there are plenty of Targs without Targ looks, so I think that his looks tell us nothing about his actual probability of being a Targ.

[The Twinslayer]

But the vast majority of people never thought that Robert's children were not really his. Maybe they should have--but they did not. Either way--this issue only relates to whether Jon can prove who he is. I admit that might be difficult. But as to the original question of whether Jon really is likely or not likely to be a Targ--I think the evidence that Rhaegar is his father is overwhelming and there are plenty of Targs without Targ looks, so I think that his looks tell us nothing about his actual probability of being a Targ.

The reason the vast majority of people think Robert's children are his is because you assume that the children born to a married woman are the fruit of the marriage. You don't assume that the Queen is sleeping with her brother, who has taken a vow of celibacy. The point is that the hair color was enough to make Stannis, Jon Arryn and Ned overcome that assumption.

With Jon Snow it is different. You know one of his parents is a Stark, but you don't know who the other is. But you would probably think it is unlikely to be a Targaryen, because it is more likely than not that a Stark-Targaryen union would produce a child with Targaryen features. That is why I asked, if Jon had purple eyes, wouldn't that make it more likely that he had a Targaryen parent?

It would not mean he definitely had a Targaryen parent -- Ned's lover might have been a Dayne, a Velaryon, or someone from Essos. But it would make a Targaryen parent much more likely.

[sj4iy]

But you would probably think it is unlikely to be a Targaryen, because it is more likely than not that a Stark-Targaryen union would produce a child with Targaryen features.

This is absolutely, completely untrue. Your reasoning is incredibly flawed.

The only offspring that we know of who was the fruit of a union between the Targaryens and the blood of the first men is Brynden Rivers- and he was albino. Unless you can provide actual evidence of a Stark-Targaryen union where the children had predominately Targaryen features, you cannot make this claim as if it were fact.

It's as if I said "Well, I bred a Labrador and a Great Dane, and the puppies looked mostly like the Great Dane. So if I breed the Labrador with a Poodle, those puppies will most likely look like the Poodle." See the problem here? That's the same problem in your scenario.

[BearQueen87]

Here is the problem with trying to do the genetics thing: this is fantasy literature in which the author needs to write a believable mystery.

Jon cannot have silver hair or purple eyes cause then THE GIG IS UP. He has to look as Stark as possible for GRRM to build his mystery around who Jon's biological father is. Trying to make this scientific is rather futile because GRRM isn't going by strict genotype science but rather what is the best way to tell his story of "who are Jon Snow's parents" over the course of at least 6 books.

[sj4iy]

Here is the problem with trying to do the genetics thing: this is fantasy literature in which the author needs to write a believable mystery.

Jon cannot have silver hair or purple eyes cause then THE GIG IS UP. He has to look as Stark as possible for GRRM to build his mystery around who Jon's biological father is. Trying to make this scientific is rather futile because GRRM isn't going by strict genotype science but rather what is the best way to tell his story of "who are Jon Snow's parents" over the course of at least 6 books.

Exactly. I pointed out above that it was the only way for Jon to have feasibly survived in the story, so Martin had to make him look like a Stark.