What the hell did happen at Summerhall?

[Ser Lepus]

Tricks? Not so, they were still plenty able to produce wildfire. They just had lower output for the amount of work they put in.

Magic wasn't gone from the world before 298 AC, it was just somewhat muted and less effective.

As I said "the had to rely mostly on tricks" not "exclusively on tricks". They can use magic to produce wildfire and little more, and use stage magician tricks, like Melisandre with her pouches full of powders in her sleeves, or the Qartheen red mage who used gunpowder and wildfire to fake more powerful magic.

[Clueless Northman]

I'm pretty sure that one egg/dragon was reserved for Rhaegar, otherwise he wouldn't have brought pregnant Rhaella there; not when the baby was expected any day now. Either he expected Rhaegar to be born shortly before the hatching, so that he could have his egg in his cradle, like in old times, or baby Rhaegar would've had a live baby dragon from the very first hour.

[Bael's Bastard]

Who says pregnant Rhaella was brought to Summerhall? It should have belonged to Jaehaerys before Duncan was disinherited, and to Jaehaerys or Aerys after Jaehaerys became heir. I think it is much more likely that "the party" was brought to Rhaella (already at Summerhall), not the other way around.

[myufa]

The ghost of high heart survived

[Gonzalo]

The problem with the "Aegon planning to sacrifice baby Rhaegar to hatch dragons" theory is that it ignores the fact that Aegon arranged the marriage of Aerys and Rhaella because of the prophecy that the Prince That Was Promised would be born from their line.

[Hardstone]

The problem with the "Aegon planning to sacrifice baby Rhaegar to hatch dragons" theory is that it ignores the fact that Aegon arranged the marriage of Aerys and Rhaella because of the prophecy that the Prince That Was Promised would be born from their line.

No, it was Jaehaerys II who arranged the marriage. Barristan states it was Dany's grandsire who made the match. Egg, her great grandsire, was against it.

TWOIAF confirms this aswell.

[Greymoon]

I'm pretty convinced that the tragedy of Summerhall was the result of sabotage and that the most likely suspects are the maesters of the citadel.

I'm not certain how far one can draw a link/connection between the alchemists at Summerhall and the citadel; if there even is one to draw... but I'm assuming one or two alchemist was present for the 'dragon hatching' if only to control the wildfire, and that they conveniently 'lost' control....

And if the alchemists were not the culprits, maesters could still have been: it seems reasonable to assume Aegon had planned for maesters, or that a maester was invited to witness the event.

in any case, it makes most sense to me if not Varys or Illyrio (or whoever) but rather an "agent" of the Citadel was responsible for the tragedy. We have only heard bits and pieces here and there about maesters, the citadel, and their plotting/dislike for magic but Lady Dustin's word come to mind, Marwyn's too.

Further, reading WoIaF I couldn't help but feel suspicious every time Pycelle was mentioned as a regular correspondent (and informer) of the Citadel. Pycelle might indeed be loyal to the Lannisters, but that doesn't mean he's not been working for two factions, with two distinct but complementary goals:

1. the advancement of Tywin Lannister (personal loyalty), and

2. undermining the Targaryen dynasty as a whole (his maester's loyalty to the citadel).

If Pycelle is 'anti-dragon' Vary's motivation to have the maester killed is imo doubled. If there really is an 'anti-dragon' plot brewing at the citadel (per Marwyn), Pycelle is suspect of having participated to the animosity between Aerys and Rhaegar... and that animosity imo was more or less a direct cause for the Targaryen defeat during RR. >> I expect Rhaegar would have joined the war effort much sooner and the royalists might have responded much better and quicker than they did, had the relationship between King and crown prince not been strained.

If the Citadel is truly anti-magic and anti-Targaryen as per Marwyn's claims, and if they have been 'plotting' against the IT, then Lady Dustin's words about Maester Walys (and maesters in general) are given credence; thus there might be some truth in Rickard's alleged 'southron ambitions' after all....

As a side note, maesters are responsible for correspondence -- they are the ones to retrieve the ravens, and to send them off...Have we not in maester Walys a perfect culprit for the misdirection of Brandon, and the lack of communication between Lyanna and her family? I've wondered before if Ned's silence about Jon is not more due to Luwin's presence at Winterfell and a mistrust of maesters in general, than anything else... I mean, when and why was Walys dismissed?

....a last side not, about Jahaerys's death... am I the only one to think his death might not have been natural? and that his "weak" constitution was a convenient scapegoat?

EDIT: posted by accident before I was finished.

EDIT 2: to clarify:

We have Marwyn right out telling us that the Citadel is no friend of Magic and Targaryens, that it was good Aemon died before landing in Oldtown and that Dany is in danger.

If the downfall of House Targaryen was the end goal of the Citadel, it seems reasonable to think that the citadel and its maesters helped setting up the "game" for the Rebellion, the same way Varys and Littelfinger have done for the WotFK. And indeed, we have clues and hints pointing to a possible involvement of the maester's in the events during, and preluding Robert's rebellion (Lady Dustin's accusations, Pycelle's correspondence + his advice to Aerys right before the sack).

We have no such clues and hints pertaining to the events of Summerhall in particular, but it's not a stretch to assume the citadel was already working for the downfall of the House two decades before the Rebellion.

[Ser Clay]

Indeed, and it's very possible that no one intended to sacrifice baby Rhaegar per say but perhaps the family had come to believe by the time just before the tragedy at Summerhall that the birth of a 'figurative dragon' (Rhaegar) + some forgotten sorcery = 'literal dragon' hatching from an egg. Just a random thought at 6am. Carry on! :)

[Clueless Northman]

If there was sabotage, what would the odds be of someone using a Faceless Man? Would the Citadel recruit one - and would they spend that much money on it? Would the Faceless Men do it for cheap since they despise dragons and Valyria - therefore, probably despise ruling Targs?

Who says pregnant Rhaella was brought to Summerhall?

Dunno, maybe the well-known fact that Rhaegar was borm at Summerhall, right when the catastrophe happened.

[Bael's Bastard]

What does Rhaegar being born at Summerhall have to do with the idea that Rhaella was brought to Summerhall at that time? Her father held Summerhall, and had been made Prince of Dragonstone. It seems much more likely that the others went to Summerhall because that is where Rhaella already was, rather than a woman about to give birth was made to travel to Summerhall.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Semantics.

[Clueless Northman]

What does Rhaegar being born at Summerhall have to do with the idea that Rhaella was brought to Summerhall at that time? Her father held Summerhall, and had been made Prince of Dragonstone. It seems much more likely that the others went to Summerhall because that is where Rhaella already was, rather than a woman about to give birth was made to travel to Summerhall.

Oh I see. I misread you and thought you wondered why we thought she was at Summerhall.

Her already being there since it's the leisure palace of the Targs makes sense indeed. That's a good place for a Targ princess to be quiet and spend time during pregnancy.

I've always supposed Egg liked the place and picked it also because it was a remote secluded place, so probably better for a ritual and to hatch dragons than in overcrowded King's Landing and the populous Red Keep.

In fact, it's possible both elements helped him to pick the place and decide to try to hatch dragons right then.

[Fjordgazer]

Well thought out, Greymoon. As for the "sacrifice" theory, if we go by the ink-blotched chronicle that appears "reconstructed" in TWOIAF, we see that Dunk's last deed was to save the Aerys and Rhaella (who was on labor) on command of Egg. So, it doesn't hold up there either.

[Bael's Bastard]

Oh I see. I misread you and thought you wondered why we thought she was at Summerhall.

Her already being there since it's the leisure palace of the Targs makes sense indeed. That's a good place for a Targ princess to be quiet and spend time during pregnancy.

I've always supposed Egg liked the place and picked it also because it was a remote secluded place, so probably better for a ritual and to hatch dragons than in overcrowded King's Landing and the populous Red Keep.

In fact, it's possible both elements helped him to pick the place and decide to try to hatch dragons right then.

Ah, ok, cool. I don't recall if it is stated whether Jaehaerys retained Summerhall when he became heir, or if he passed it on to Aerys when he became heir (and Aerys became his heir), but I figure it would make sense that she either lived at Summerhall or went there earlier in her pregnancy, as I think such travel would have probably been avoided so deep into her pregnancy. I definitely think Rhaella and Rhaegar were among those that Egg intended to have dragons.

[Colonel Green]

IMHO the fact that Glydayn's account mysteriously had ink spilled over it suggests a cover-up by powerful people.

Oh, c'mon. "Powerful people" looking to create a coverup wouldn't need to spill ink on page. They could just take the page (for that matter, there are characters, such as Barristan, who seem to know perfectly well what happened at Summerhall, he just doesn't say anything to the reader).

And, on a more meta level, the ink is there to obscure the details of the last D&E story (though I'm dubious we'll ever see that).

[Bael's Bastard]

I don't get the impression that it is believed or known in Westeros that Summerhall was murder. And if it was murder (which I acknowledge it could easily not be), I don't think its plotters were believed or known to have carried it out, and they basically got away with it.

[complexphoenix]

Well thought out, Greymoon. As for the "sacrifice" theory, if we go by the ink-blotched chronicle that appears "reconstructed" in TWOIAF, we see that Dunk's last deed was to save the Aerys and Rhaella (who was on labor) on command of Egg. So, it doesn't hold up there either.

The fragment doesn't say that.

It says, "...died, but for the valor of the Lord Comman..." I think we can reasonably conclude that the original sentence read that "[somebody] would have died, but for the valor of the Lord Commander." So Dunk clearly saved somebody. But we don't know who. Anyone who was present at Summerhall and survived is a possibility, and Dunk could have saved more than one. Confirmed survivors of Summerhall include Jaehaerys, Shaera, Aerys, Rhaella, Rhaegar, and the Ghost of High Heart, and there are others who may have been present as well. The idea that Egg commanded Dunk to do this is not stated or implied anywhere. I know I'm hairsplitting, but it seems to me that a lot of people are drawing unwarranted conclusions from that sentence fragment.

[Fjordgazer]

The fragment doesn't say that.

It says, "...died, but for the valor of the Lord Comman..." I think we can reasonably conclude that the original sentence read that "[somebody] would have died, but for the valor of the Lord Commander." So Dunk clearly saved somebody. But we don't know who. Anyone who was present at Summerhall and survived is a possibility, and Dunk could have saved more than one. Confirmed survivors of Summerhall include Jaehaerys, Shaera, Aerys, Rhaella, Rhaegar, and the Ghost of High Heart, and there are others who may have been present as well. The idea that Egg commanded Dunk to do this is not stated or implied anywhere. I know I'm hairsplitting, but it seems to me that a lot of people are drawing unwarranted conclusions from that sentence fragment.

Maybe you're right, but the givaway (in my view) was the accompanying picture that shows Rhaella giving birth right outside the burning castle, assisted by what looks like a maester. Though upon further inspection, there are 4 more (adult) people shown (only one of them offers some sort of identifiable trait: what looks like silver hair, most likely Aerys).

I always assumed that Jaehaerys and his wife were elsewhere in Westeros ATM, but it must be said, i assumed Aerys and Rhaella were as well, and we've seen that's not the case.

[John Doe]

Well, that is not really supported by the text of any of the novels. It makes little sense to me to completely ignore all the hints about Varys' youth we have been given in the books (born a slave in Lys, an apprentice mummer in his childhood, castrated in Myr by the sorcerer, teaming up with Illyrio in Pentos shortly thereafter).

Everything we know about Varys before he joined the small council we were told by either Varys or Illyrio. And didn't Martin say something along the lines "Varys is one of the most misundestood characters" in asoiaf? Probably because it seems that 90% of the readers believe what he says.

[John Doe]

There's something of a parallel to Daenerys and her campaign in Slaver's Bay here.

The difference is, Aegons' plan could have actually worked had he been able to hatch dragons.