A+J=T v. 3

[Lost Melnibonean]

If you AJT guys haven't seen it already, you're gonna love this...

Even Mord had scarcely believed it when Tyrion tossed him the leather purse. The gaoler's eyes had gone big as boiled eggs as he yanked open the drawstring and beheld the glint of gold. "I kept the silver," Tyrion had told him with a crooked smile, "but you were promised the gold, and there it is."

Tyrion VI, Game 42

The George has used eggs to signal hidden Targaryens and dragons.

[Jô Maltese]

But what do you guys think of the quotes I posted yesterday :dunno:

I find the first quote very pertinent in supporting A+J, and I think it did ring a bell in my "Tyrion might be a Targ" early reflecting as well.

I am less convinced by the other quotes though, as I see a logical flaw in your demonstration: it's a bit like "Tywin was known to be unforgiving and spiteful + Tywin did not seek revenge on Aerys on anything => Tywin was afraid of Aerys => Tywin would not have let his feelings known to Aerys if he knew he was Tyrion's father => Aerys is Tyrion's father". Other explanations may fit (not that I believe in these), like Tywin is utterly loyal to the Crown, Tywin loved Aerys or simply, as all the "unbelievers" will counter, Tywin never thought Aerys was Tyrion's father or that indeed he was not...

And I am not sure about Tywin fearing Aerys, it does not seem to fit the character to me. I think there is something else, blackmail of some sort, explaining their strange relationship.

[Jô Maltese]

If you AJT guys haven't seen it already, you're gonna love this...

Tyrion VI, Game 42

The George has used eggs to signal hidden Targaryens and dragons.

Nice one!

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I find the first quote very pertinent in supporting A+J, and I think it did ring a bell in my "Tyrion might be a Targ" early reflecting as well.

I am less convinced by the other quotes though, as I see a logical flaw in your demonstration: it's a bit like "Tywin was known to be unforgiving and spiteful + Tywin did not seek revenge on Aerys on anything => Tywin was afraid of Aerys => Tywin would not have let his feelings known to Aerys if he knew he was Tyrion's father => Aerys is Tyrion's father". Other explanations may fit (not that I believe in these), like Tywin is utterly loyal to the Crown, Tywin loved Aerys or simply, as all the "unbelievers" will counter, Tywin never thought Aerys was Tyrion's father or that indeed he was not...

And I am not sure about Tywin fearing Aerys, it does not seem to fit the character to me. I think there is something else, blackmail of some sort, explaining their strange relationship.

Well, my point is that; many times when discussing AJT, especially since WOIAF came out. Many posters have trouble believing that Tywin would have let Tyrion live if he suspected that Aerys was his father, not only that, but they argue that Tywin would have raised up in rebellion against Aaerys, if in fact, Aerys had raped/had sex with Joanna at the 10 year anniversary tourney.

SO I am saying that I agree with your points, that either Tywin has deep deep respect for the crown in general or is afraid of Aerys in some way. I think those quotes prove it. tywin would not stand up for the Captain of the Hand's guard when he was having his tongue ripped out, also when Rykker made that joke and Aerys laughed in Tywin's face, Tywin did nothing except stare down Rykker. Yes they do not prove AJT, but I think they do prove that Tywin would not kill Tyrion if he knew TYrion was the son of Aerys. And that Tywin would not rise up in rebellion against the crown solely because he thought the king had slept with his wife.

I guess they were quotes that prove one of the counter-arguments wrong. Under no circumstances would Tywin do anything to Aerys, he was either scared of Aerys or he refused to lift a hand against the crown, because he would never want a black mark on his families name. You see what I mean? The argument that Tywin would have killed Tyrion or gone to war with Aerys over an affair with Joanna is impossible, Tywin 'took it on the chin' wrt to Aerys no matter what Aerys did to him or his men.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

If you AJT guys haven't seen it already, you're gonna love this...

Tyrion VI, Game 42

The George has used eggs to signal hidden Targaryens and dragons.

Are there other quotes where GRRM uses eggs to signal hidden Targs? I mean, why do you think this is a reference to Targaryens?

[UnmaskedLurker]

Well, my point is that; many times when discussing AJT, especially since WOIAF came out. Many posters have trouble believing that Tywin would have let Tyrion live if he suspected that Aerys was his father, not only that, but they argue that Tywin would have raised up in rebellion against Aaerys, if in fact, Aerys had raped/had sex with Joanna at the 10 year anniversary tourney.

SO I am saying that I agree with your points, that either Tywin has deep deep respect for the crown in general or is afraid of Aerys in some way. I think those quotes prove it. tywin would not stand up for the Captain of the Hand's guard when he was having his tongue ripped out, also when Rykker made that joke and Aerys laughed in Tywin's face, Tywin did nothing except stare down Rykker. Yes they do not prove AJT, but I think they do prove that Tywin would not kill Tyrion if he knew TYrion was the son of Aerys. And that Tywin would not rise up in rebellion against the crown solely because he thought the king had slept with his wife.

I guess they were quotes that prove one of the counter-arguments wrong. Under no circumstances would Tywin do anything to Aerys, he was either scared of Aerys or he refused to lift a hand against the crown, because he would never want a black mark on his families name. You see what I mean? The argument that Tywin would have killed Tyrion or gone to war with Aerys over an affair with Joanna is impossible, Tywin 'took it on the chin' wrt to Aerys no matter what Aerys did to him or his men.

That was how I understood your quotes to mean. The behavior of Tywin -- assuming he knew or strongly suspected that Tyrion was the son of Aerys -- is more understandable given how else we know he behaved toward Aerys given other provocations. The idea that Tywin -- with 100% certainty -- would have either killed Tyrion or went to war against Aerys, while possible -- it would have been unlikely given how else Tywin acted toward Aerys.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Are there other quotes where GRRM uses eggs to signal hidden Targs? I mean, why do you think this is a reference to Targaryens?

Dragons coming from eggs are obvious. We have Daenerys's three and the tale of the two moons, which were believed to be eggs. One cracked when it got too close to the sun. When the remaining moon, or egg, kisses the sun, the dragons will return, and sure enough Moon of My Life kissed My Sun and Stars. So, Daenerys Targaryen was envisioned as an egg. Read the last half of Jon's last chapter in Game. You'll see that the Old Bear breaks his fast on three eggs. Those three aggs symbolize the three heads of the dragon. Well, Jeor eats two of them, but Bloodraven's favorite bird pecks at and opens the third. And of course we have Varys, who knows the secrets of the Red Keep being described as an egg when we first meet him, and best of all, Egg, who shaved his head to hide Targaryen features. Young Griff was introduced to us with a straw hat and a very Egg-like vibe. And as Illyrio told Tyrion about his reasons for backing Daenerys (without actually claiming that he was backing Daenerys), he "peeled another egg." But the clearest egg-Targaryen/dragon symbolism was the dream of Daemon II Blackfyre in The Mystery Knight. He believed he would hatch a dragon from an egg at the traitors' tourney, and sure enough he did, except the dragon that hatched was Egg.

[Jô Maltese]

Well, my point is that; many times when discussing AJT, especially since WOIAF came out. Many posters have trouble believing that Tywin would have let Tyrion live if he suspected that Aerys was his father, not only that, but they argue that Tywin would have raised up in rebellion against Aaerys, if in fact, Aerys had raped/had sex with Joanna at the 10 year anniversary tourney.

SO I am saying that I agree with your points, that either Tywin has deep deep respect for the crown in general or is afraid of Aerys in some way. I think those quotes prove it. tywin would not stand up for the Captain of the Hand's guard when he was having his tongue ripped out, also when Rykker made that joke and Aerys laughed in Tywin's face, Tywin did nothing except stare down Rykker. Yes they do not prove AJT, but I think they do prove that Tywin would not kill Tyrion if he knew TYrion was the son of Aerys. And that Tywin would not rise up in rebellion against the crown solely because he thought the king had slept with his wife.

I guess they were quotes that prove one of the counter-arguments wrong. Under no circumstances would Tywin do anything to Aerys, he was either scared of Aerys or he refused to lift a hand against the crown, because he would never want a black mark on his families name. You see what I mean? The argument that Tywin would have killed Tyrion or gone to war with Aerys over an affair with Joanna is impossible, Tywin 'took it on the chin' wrt to Aerys no matter what Aerys did to him or his men.

I see your point Suzanna, but I think this only leads to a standstill between supporters and opposers, who similarly are wrong to argue Tywin would have... if... : too many unknowns remain to conclude on anything. And if anything, I do tend to think that Tywin realising Tyrion's was not his ​should have triggered a terrible vengeance, despite his (feigned?) indifference to much lesser slights. Maybe it did, vengeance is a dish best served cold and cold calculation and patience are pretty much characteristics of Tywin. And we do not know for sure how Joanna died...

That was how I understood your quotes to mean. The behavior of Tywin -- assuming he knew or strongly suspected that Tyrion was the son of Aerys -- is more understandable given how else we know he behaved toward Aerys given other provocations. The idea that Tywin -- with 100% certainty -- would have either killed Tyrion or went to war against Aerys, while possible -- it would have been unlikely given how else Tywin acted toward Aerys.

UL, the way you put it makes my point in a way: I think this is close to confirmation bias?

[UnmaskedLurker]

I see your point Suzanna, but I think this only leads to a standstill between supporters and opposers, who similarly are wrong to argue Tywin would have... if... : too many unknowns remain to conclude on anything. And if anything, I do tend to think that Tywin realising Tyrion's was not his ​should have triggered a terrible vengeance, despite his (feigned?) indifference to much lesser slights. Maybe it did, vengeance is a dish best served cold and cold calculation and patience are pretty much characteristics of Tywin. And we do not know for sure how Joanna died...

UL, the way you put it makes my point in a way: I think this is close to confirmation bias?

Let me try to explain why I do not think this line of reasoning counts as confirmation bias. To be clear, I do not think that the attitude that Tywin had toward Aerys makes AJT any more or less likely. That is not the point of these observations. The point is to refute an objection to AJT.

Basically, one of the objections that opponents to AJT have is that they believe that if Tywin had any indication that Tyrion was the son of Aerys, Tywin either would have killed Tyrion or brought together other Lords to go to war against Aerys. So if that logic holds, and because we know that Tywin did not kill Tyrion and did not raise the banners against Aerys, Tyrion cannot be the son of Aerys (unless Tywin had absolutely no idea -- but part of the evidence suggests that Tywin at least suspected). So there are three possibilities: (1) Tyrion is not the son of Aerys; (2) Tywin would not have killed Tyrion or went to war against Aerys -- even if Tywin suspected Tyrion to be son of Aerys; or (3) Tywin never suspected that Tyrion was the son of Aerys even though Tyrion, in fact, was the son of Aerys. So I do not have to concede that Tyrion cannot be the son or Aerys as long as either (2) or (3) can be supported. Again, demonstrating (2) or (3) does not "prove" anything other than that Tyrion is not absolutely precluded from being the son of Aerys.

Now, while I think (3) is possible, I think, as noted above, there is some suggestion that Tywin at least had suspicion. So if I am not going to limit my defense to possibility (3), I need to demonstrate that possibility (2) is plausible. I believe that the quotes from SS go a long way to showing that possibility (2) is more than just plausible, it is quite credible. So again, demonstrating this point is not meant to be proof of AJT. Rather, it serves as a dismissal of the assertion that Tyrion cannot possibly be the son of Aerys because Tywin neither killed Tyrion nor went to war against Aerys.

[Jô Maltese]

Dragons coming from eggs are obvious. We have Daenerys's three and the tale of the two moons, which were believed to be eggs. One cracked when it got too close to the sun. When the remaining moon, or egg, kisses the sun, the dragons will return, and sure enough Moon of My Life kissed My Sun and Stars. So, Daenerys Targaryen was envisioned as an egg. Read the last half of Jon's last chapter in Game. You'll see that the Old Bear breaks his fast on three eggs. Those three aggs symbolize the three heads of the dragon. Well, Jeor eats two of them, but Bloodraven's favorite bird pecks at and opens the third. And of course we have Varys, who knows the secrets of the Red Keep being described as an egg when we first meet him, and best of all, Egg, who shaved his head to hide Targaryen features. Young Griff was introduced to us with a straw hat and a very Egg-like vibe. And as Illyrio told Tyrion about his reasons for backing Daenerys (without actually claiming that he was backing Daenerys), he "peeled another egg." But the clearest egg-Targaryen/dragon symbolism was the dream of Daemon II Blackfyre in The Mystery Knight. He believed he would hatch a dragon from an egg at the traitors' tourney, and sure enough he did, except the dragon that hatched was Egg.

There is another nice example, quite clearly foreshadowing Tyrion future meeting with Ben Brown Plum (with 2 drops of dragon blood) and possibly even the battle of Mereen?

aCoK, TYRION IV

In the airy chambers beneath the rookery, his girl served them boiled eggs, stewed plums, and porridge, while Pycelle served the pontifications. "In these sad times, when so many hunger, I think it only fitting to keep my table spare."

"Commendable," Tyrion admitted, breaking a large brown egg that reminded him unduly of the Grand Maester's bald spotted head. "I take a different view. If there is food I eat it, in case there is none on the morrow." He smiled. "Tell me, are your ravens early risers as well?"

Pycelle stroked the snowy beard that flowed down his chest. "To be sure. Shall I send for quill and ink after we have eaten?"

(...) Tyrion peeled the cracked shell away from his egg and took a bite. It wanted salt. (...) Pycelle moved so slowly that Tyrion had time to finish his egg and taste the plums—overcooked and watery, to his taste—before the sound of wings prompted him to rise. He spied the raven, dark in the dawn sky (...)

[Frey family reunion]

If you AJT guys haven't seen it already, you're gonna love this...

Tyrion VI, Game 42

The George has used eggs to signal hidden Targaryens and dragons.

So, then Mord is a hidden Targaryen?

[Lost Melnibonean]

So, then Mord is a hidden Targaryen?

Well, maybe a seed :) Just kidding. His eyes got big when he looked at Tyrion.

[Jô Maltese]

Let me try to explain why I do not think this line of reasoning counts as confirmation bias. To be clear, I do not think that the attitude that Tywin had toward Aerys makes AJT any more or less likely. That is not the point of these observations. The point is to refute an objection to AJT.

Basically, one of the objections that opponents to AJT have is that they believe that if Tywin had any indication that Tyrion was the son of Aerys, Tywin either would have killed Tyrion or brought together other Lords to go to war against Aerys. So if that logic holds, and because we know that Tywin did not kill Tyrion and did not raise the banners against Aerys, Tyrion cannot be the son of Aerys (unless Tywin had absolutely no idea -- but part of the evidence suggests that Tywin at least suspected). So there are three possibilities: (1) Tyrion is not the son of Aerys; (2) Tywin would not have killed Tyrion or went to war against Aerys -- even if Tywin suspected Tyrion to be son of Aerys; or (3) Tywin never suspected that Tyrion was the son of Aerys even though Tyrion, in fact, was the son of Aerys. So I do not have to concede that Tyrion cannot be the son or Aerys as long as either (2) or (3) can be supported. Again, demonstrating (2) or (3) does not "prove" anything other than that Tyrion is not absolutely precluded from being the son of Aerys.

Now, while I think (3) is possible, I think, as noted above, there is some suggestion that Tywin at least had suspicion. So if I am not going to limit my defense to possibility (3), I need to demonstrate that possibility (2) is plausible. I believe that the quotes from SS go a long way to showing that possibility (2) is more than just plausible, it is quite credible. So again, demonstrating this point is not meant to be proof of AJT. Rather, it serves as a dismissal of the assertion that Tyrion cannot possibly be the son of Aerys because Tywin neither killed Tyrion nor went to war against Aerys.

I get your point and I see how it can counter the "A+J is impossible"clan, but I think your premises are wrong:

- We know that Tywin did not kill Tyrion... Because he is - whomever his father is, a Lannister (by name and by Joanna's blood). So this fact cannot be made a cause for (1), (2) or (3).Nor for the opposite propositions.

- We know that Tywin... did raise the banners against Aerys, only he waited until the very right moment, 15 years or so later (a dish best served cold). And he had Aerys grand children slaughtered...

I think those explanations discard better the "impossible" party than a psychological analysis of someone who is a master at hiding his feelings and intentions (and not a POV, so even the reader can't read Tywin)?

[Jô Maltese]

And another nice Easter Egg :

aSoS - SANSA I

Butterbumps arrived before the food, dressed in a jester's suit of green and yellow feathers with a floppy coxcomb. An immense round fat man, as big as three Moon Boys, he came cartwheeling into the hall, vaulted onto the table, and laid a gigantic egg right in front of Sansa. "Break it, my lady," he commanded.

[TiltedAxis]

Clues against:

He is absolutely 100% Tywin's son.

Will bet any amount of anything on this.

Moving on.

[RumHam]

Clues against:

He is absolutely 100% Tywin's son.

Will bet any amount of anything on this.

Moving on.

Wow where were you thirty nine pages ago, you could have saved us all at lot of time. Seriously thanks for settling this issue once and for all.

[Lost Melnibonean]

And another nice Easter Egg :

Now don't get carried away. There are regular old eggs without any Targaryens or dragons...

[Lost Melnibonean]

Wow where were you thirty nine pages ago, you could have saved us all at lot of time. Seriously thanks for settling this issue once and for all.

Where do you stand, RH? I'm really warming up to this theory...

[RumHam]

Where do you stand, RH? I'm really warming up to this theory...

I used to be against it, but I've come around to believing it. You have to ask yourself why is all that Joanna/Aerys stuff in Dance and especially the worldbook. The way I see it either this theory is correct, or Martin/Ran/Linda are deliberately trying to fool us.

[trepesoa]

Only Targaryens can ride dragons. This was revealed as fact in the Dance with Dragons section of the history (and also pre-published in Dangerous Women). There are 3 dragons so there must be 3 Targaryens. So whether you are sick of hidden Targs or not, there is a 3 Targ. Obviously, Danny is already a rider. Snow seems an obvious choice as well (my bet is he gets the cream dragon to go with the whole "snow" theme just like he got the white wolf). So that leaves the green dragon. The only real likely candidates are Aegon (assuming he's real, which I do actually) or someone else with whom the green color already has some association. Gee, that couldn't possibly be Tyrion now, could it?

New points no one has made in this thread yet

- Compare Aegon conquerer with 2 sisters vs Daenerys the conqueror with 2 “brothers”

- Tyrion “knows” how to construct saddles, for unusual riders. He’ll be constructing saddles for unusual mounts soon too. Shape the horse to the rider

- Tyrion knows more about dragons than possibly anyone alive including some aspects of dragon mating which would be helpful in leading to more eggs. Keep in mind Maester Marwyn is on his way to Danny too, ideally with some of those snazy glass candle communication devices

- Tyrion, unlike Aegon, meets the requirements for AAR ie reborn under a bleeding star amidst smoke and salt - amazing how none of his wounds got infected. Obviously Danny fulfills this too as does Jon (referencing of course the sigil of Ser Patrek Mallister - we just need to wait for the rebirth part still)

- Not being Lannister gets Tyrion out of all of Brown Ben Plumm's signatory notes

Even more convincing to me is all the work that Martin has put into the "reveal". You can't just come out and say it in some boring dialogue. He's a master story teller so such reveals have to be epic. Unlike Jon, where Howland Reed can corroborate his parentage, Tyrion has no one who can declare for him, and even if there was someone, why would anyone believe such a character.

That's why the dragons will do it for us. You can't argue with a dragon.

Dragons sense Targaryen blood, no matter how small

- Brown Ben Plumm

- Quentyn Martel

Is it possible that Drogon arrives to the arena when he does because he senses two Targaryens in close proximity? The other two dragons are still “imprisoned” under the pyramid but Drogon is free and the timing seems less than coincidental that he arrive shortly after Tyrion departs Danny’s presence (indeed, Tyrion is probably still very close to Danny just underneath the stadium grounds rather than above them)

Dragon binding requires a “magic” horn and blood and fire

Victarion, coincidently enough has such a magic horn with him on his ship

He is off the coast of Yaros perhaps a day or two of sailing from Yunkai

How convenient that some “useless frog of a character” has just engineered the release of the other two dragons from their prison and they are now free to fly at will around the city (it's almost like Quentyn's character suddenly has a point?!? not just any Targ blood will work, set dragons free, further eliminate primary house lines to make Targ royal line acceptance "simpler")

Danny has just re-encountered the Dothraki, who will be eager to sack Mehreen when they hear of how weak the Yunkai armies are after riding the pale mare

In short, Yunkish forces will be beset by land, sea, and air in the first battle to include dragons since before the Blackfyre rebellion.

So, how will it play out? First, we need the battle. Enter the Dothraki forces in a surprise attack. Lo and behold Martin has already given us a paragraph of a Tyrion chapter from the next book where he hears repeated calls of alarm of “to horse” implying a cavalry charge is inbound. Next, we need blood, so Tyrion will take some kind of a wound, nothing deadly or mortal but enough to slow him down and cause him to bleed. Third a dragon, enter Drogon being ridden by Danny, and naturally Rheagal and Viseryion will join the fray. A dragon (my vote is for Rheagal since he is green), will land close to Tyrion in his wounded state to feast on some creature, horse, elephent, whatever. Selmy and the forces in side Mehreen will open the gates and fight as well. The sellswords, remnants of previous Bittersteel rebellions will switch to the side with dragons, aka the winning side. Finally, the horn is sounded by Victarion (under the guidance of Moqorro, either someone else will sound the horn or a lot of blood will be spilt first) upon seeing the dragons in the field. And voila – suddenly dragon near Tyrion binds to Tyrion. GRRM doesn’t have to go through an elaborate introduction of unknown characters to convince the reader that A+J=T. The dragons will settle it. Aftermath of the battle, as Danny travels East, Selmy and Tyrion, and Danny can discuss, amongst other things what the chronology of events were leading to Tyrion's birth, confirming that he is indeed Targ bastard to Joanna, Tywin is not his father, Jaime/Cersie are half siblings, he’s not a kinslayer, but all of this can be after the grand reveal, rather than before.

Not only does Danny finally get out of Mehreen, but now she’ll also have a fleet of 60 ships to aid in transporting her army across to Westeros, thanks to Victarion.

Think that's not what Martin is up to? Think again.

ADWD Tryion II:

“That night Tyrion Lannister dreamed of a battle that turned the hills of Westeros as red as blood. He was in the midst of it, dealing death with an axe as big as he was, fighting side by side with Barristan the Bold and Bittersteel as dragons wheeled across the sky above them. In the dream he had two heads, both noseless. His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again. Then he killed his brother Jaime, hacking at his face until it was a red ruin, laughing every time he struck a blow. Only when the fight was finished did he realize that his second head was weeping.”

Tyrion has this dream as he's heading to the Rhoyne, and doesn’t know that Barristan the Bold is with Danny nor that the Bittersteel sellswords, the Golden Company, are heading to Merhreen. He’s going to kill his father again because he’s going to learn that Tywin isn’t his father, and killing Jaime is symbolic of J+C being half siblings not full (sorry fans of A+J=C+J isn’t happening). The Lannister half cries and the Targaryen half laughs.

GRRM is a storytelling master. That’s all there is too it.