Heresy 160

[aDanceWithFlagons]

When you think about it, does Gared's journey to just outside of Winterfell make any sense whatsoever? It's an incredibely long journey to take by foot, he apparently never changes out of his Night's Watch garb. I know what he saw apparently unhinged him, but if you were going to try and run to safety wouldn't it have been a lot quicker to have run back to Castle Black or the Shadow Tower? I suppose the argument was, once he saw the White Walker he assumed that the Battle for Dawn was about to start back up and he would have been in the front line if he had stayed with the Night's Watch.

If Gared did use the Black Gate, I wonder how far north the other side is and if one finds themself leagues away from where one passes through the gate. Or, maybe he rode a Stag as previously suggested.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Winterfell may have been his destination. If so, I think someone one have told/forced him to go there instead of Castle Black.

I do marvel that not only Gared, but also the two former NW (Stive and Wallen) running south with Osha, would find themselves within a hundred miles of Winterfell at any point in time. Surely that's got to be the least intelligent route available for someone fleeing the Wall and their vows. It also seems the least likely place for them to show up, especially if they first disappeared north of the Wall and needed to bypass Castle Black. It's not impossible to imagine Stiv and Wallen climbing the Wall with Osha and Hali, maybe. But Gared? Over 50 years old, with PTSD, having traveled all alone starting 9 days north into the haunted forest... how in the hell does he haul himself up over that 700 ft ice face? That just doesn't work, in my opinion. It would be more plausible, in all cases, for these turncloaks to attempt passage around the Wall... by boat around Eastwatch, or through the mountains beyond the Shadow Tower... than to try climbing the Wall. But even in the unlikely case they both attempted and succeeded in the climb, I still need a good explanation for why they'd come anywhere near Stark HQ.

Wonder if Martin has a hidden explanation, or if he just sacrifices plausibility for the sake of his story.

[Varamyra Stark]

Professional Heresy lurker for the past two years. Black Crow, is there any way you could link that Reddit article again?

[JNR]

I still need a good explanation for why they'd come anywhere near Stark HQ.

Wonder if Martin has a hidden explanation, or if he just sacrifices plausibility for the sake of his story.

Winterfell is at the bottom of a giant geological funnel. Once you pass the Wall, you inevitably fall there. The mountain clans and Umbers only manage because they have sucker-cups on the soles of their shoes.

Or: Lots of people scaled the Wall and didn't go anywhere near Winterfell, and we just never heard about them because they don't affect the story.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Or: Lots of people scaled the Wall and didn't go anywhere near Winterfell, and we just never heard about them because they don't affect the story.

Yeah, I've considered this idea as well. And it's certainly possible - in AGOT chapter 2, Ned says Gared was "the fourth this year," which I assume means the fourth that he's personally executed. But if men are deserting in droves, and running south of the Wall, I'm not sure why we don't hear more about desertions from the characters in the NW. The only one Jeor Mormont ever mentions, that I recall, is Gared. Seems like we'd either read about, or meet, an occasional deserter-in-hiding somewhere in Westeros along the way...

[wolfmaid7]

Yeah, I've considered this idea as well. And it's certainly possible - in AGOT chapter 2, Ned says Gared was "the fourth this year," which I assume means the fourth that he's personally executed. But if men are deserting in droves, and running south of the Wall, I'm not sure why we don't hear more about desertions from the characters in the NW. The only one Jeor Mormont ever mentions, that I recall, is Gared. Seems like we'd either read about, or meet, an occasional deserter-in-hiding somewhere in Westeros along the way...

In Cat's first chapter Ned told her that "Ben writes that the Watch is below 1,000 and it's not only desertions but that they are loosing men or rangings as well."

So it was kind of established in the earliest that desertions were a problem for them.

[avernite]

Yeah, I've considered this idea as well. And it's certainly possible - in AGOT chapter 2, Ned says Gared was "the fourth this year," which I assume means the fourth that he's personally executed. But if men are deserting in droves, and running south of the Wall, I'm not sure why we don't hear more about desertions from the characters in the NW. The only one Jeor Mormont ever mentions, that I recall, is Gared. Seems like we'd either read about, or meet, an occasional deserter-in-hiding somewhere in Westeros along the way...

I rather conclude that your assumption is wrong.

4 people deserted from the NW in a year, which is apparently quite a lot, but Gared is the only who truly surprises anyone (the others being more the usual malcontents who might desert anytime, but usually go at a rate of more like 1 per year, say).

Anyhow, theorycrafting:

What can we derive from my new theory?

My theory is that Westeros is, essentially, Scotland(the far north)-Wall-England (the North)-Neck-France/Netherlands/Switzerland? (riverlands, Vale?, Westerlands, Reach, Stormlands)-mountains-Spain (Dorne). The iron islanders are, of course, Scandinavia/Vikings (a Viking lorded it over Holland at some point, same as Normandy - and the Riverlands if you substitute Iron Islanders; who also, as not at all a side effect, rule chunks of the North too (Danelaw)).

Aegon's Westeros would then have elements of the (west) Roman Empire.

The fight between Bolton and Stark takes elements of Matilda-Stephen and Yorkist-Lancastrian struggles. So long as the North also considers fighting in 'France' it will never have peace with the Wildlings, and only a withdrawal from the Seven Kingdoms business can bring the far north into peaceful union with Winterfell. I suppose the Vale or Riverlands might also drop off (being Switzerland for the Vale, or the Netherlands for the Riverlands, what with the whole 'not really a Kingdom' business). If WotR, victory will not go to either Stark or Bolton, but the end will have a fairly lasting influence. If it's more Matilda-Stephen, conflicts with the Westerosi core may still continue.

The Dornish might be taken over by foreigners (the 'Arabs', who might be the Rhoynar or a re-invasion by Dany; the Rhoynar might also be Carthaginians, reinforcing the Aegon=Roman Empire link) for a large part, only to strike back eventually and take it back. This may, as said, have been the Rhoynar so already done.

Whenever the 5-6 corelands (Vale-Rivers-West-Reach-Stormlands-'crownlands') are united, everyone will quiver in his boots, so the outside powers will be doing all they can to shatter the core.

So, final prediction: the current conflict is the collapse of the West-Roman Empire writ on a fantastic scale. By the end of the series we might end up with a lessened 7 Kingdoms (losing Dorne and the North) ruled by a Targaryen (i.e. Roman Emperor) ruled over by a power-behind-the-throne (see Odoacer & Romulus Augustulus), or perhaps we'll be past that phase all the way to dissolution with hope for reunification.

If this makes any sense, it's not unlikely that Dany will found an East-Targaryen Empire in Essos.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

In Cat's first chapter Ned told her that "Ben writes that the Watch is below 1,000 and it's not only desertions but that they are loosing men or rangings as well."

So it was kind of established in the earliest that desertions were a problem for them.

Sure. It's just interesting to me that we only hear about it from Ned. Seems like it would be the sort of thing Jon would hear more discussion about at the Wall - but it never comes up. In fact, we don't even hear anything about it after he's chosen Lord Commander... and at that point it ought to be a serious concern for him, especially as he starts manning the empty forts. Instead Martin mentions it briefly in a letter, back in chapter 2, and considers his bases covered. Just makes it seems like a late addition.

Regardless, it still doesn't explain why Gared, Stiv, and Wallen would be traveling straight down through the heart of the North, within a stone's throw of Winterfell. Even if there were scads of deserters migrating south, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

In the end I can chalk most of it up to an oversight on Martin's part. Lord knows he's got enough to keep straight already. But Gared's presence south of the Wall still seems to demand explanation. How'd he manage that, without passing through the gate at Castle Black?

.

[wolfmaid7]

Sure. It's just interesting to me that we only hear about it from Ned. Seems like it would be the sort of thing Jon would hear more discussion about at the Wall - but it never comes up. In fact, we don't even hear anything about it after he's chosen Lord Commander... and at that point it ought to be a serious concern for him, especially as he's tarts manning the empty forts. Instead Martin mentions it briefly in a letter, back in chapter 2, and considers his bases covered. Just makes it seems like a late addition.

Regardless, it still doesn't explain why Gared, Stiv, and Wallen would be traveling straight down through the heart of the North, within a stone's throw of Winterfell. Even if there were scads of deserters migrating south, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

In the end I can chalk most of it up to an oversight on Martin's part. Lord knows he's got enough to keep straight already. But Gared's presence south of the Wall still seems to demand explanation. How'd he manage that, without passing through the gate at Castle Black?

Oh i agree with you,i think George could have periodically mentioned people deserting,yet i don't know if they would know a person deserted until they turned up somewhere they shouldn't else otherwise they just went missing right. I wonder if that was the first assertion about BR ( that he deserted) and he could have but it would have been much better to say the LC went missing on a Ranging than deserted.

On the Gared issue i agree his case is a strange one and while there is no defentive proof that CH's was involved.My votes on him getting Gared pass the BG with Mama DW and maybe/maybe not baby Ghost in tow.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

A ranger that dissapears from north of the wall is a lost Watchman, with the exception of men like Gared who are caught and executed. Only men who dissapear from the Wall or while south of it are deserters, with the exceptions. So I say the deserters number closely to Ned's four he executed. The rest are just lost.

And it is strange for Osha's crew to come so close to Winterfell too. I guess the Wolfswood is a good place to hide out with plenty of hunting, but there is plenty of woods to tromp about without coming that close to WF.

That old saying-

If you find yourself lost in the woods, f*** it, build a house. "Well, I was lost but now I live here! I have severely improved my predicament!"

[wolfmaid7]

A ranger that dissapears from north of the wall is a lost Watchman, with the exception of men like Gared who are caught and executed. Only men who dissapear from the Wall or while south of it are deserters, with the exceptions. So I say the deserters number closely to Ned's four he executed. The rest are just lost.

And it is strange for Osha's crew to come so close to Winterfell too. I guess the Wolfswood is a good place to hide out with plenty of hunting, but there is plenty of woods to tromp about without coming that close to WF.

That old saying-

If you find yourself lost in the woods, f*** it, build a house. "Well, I was lost but now I live here! I have severely improved my predicament!"

Yes that makes sense i forgot there aint nowhere to go North of the Wall except Craster's Keep so most likely you are sorely screwed.

[Phillip Frye]

And it is strange for Osha's crew to come so close to Winterfell too. I guess the Wolfswood is a good place to hide out with plenty of hunting, but there is plenty of woods to tromp about without coming that close to WF.

This is the reason that everyone seems to arrive at Winterfell. Going south from the Wall, you would want to stick to the underpopulated areas, such as the mountains where the clans live and the Wolfswood. After traversing those areas, you wind up at Winterfell.

[JNR]

This is the reason that everyone seems to arrive at Winterfell. Going south from the Wall, you would want to stick to the underpopulated areas, such as the mountains where the clans live and the Wolfswood. After traversing those areas, you wind up at Winterfell.

Well, the whole North is essentially empty. Think of the long, long walk from Winterfell to the Nightfort that Bran and Co. take -- in all that time, many weeks, they only ever came within speaking distance of a single person. And Queenscrown is pretty much right up the kingsroad from Winterfell, so it seems likely they more or less took that route -- right where they'd be most likely to get noticed. And still they met virtually no one.

[Frey family reunion]

I think Martin just really needed someone for Ned to behead and figured that he may as well use Gared to avoid cluttering the books up with too many extraneous characters. And yes, that is sacrasm.

[Black Crow]

Professional Heresy lurker for the past two years. Black Crow, is there any way you could link that Reddit article again?

http://www.reddit.co...at_hardhome_in/

[Black Crow]

This is the reason that everyone seems to arrive at Winterfell. Going south from the Wall, you would want to stick to the underpopulated areas, such as the mountains where the clans live and the Wolfswood. After traversing those areas, you wind up at Winterfell.

Like all good parties everybody winds up in the kitchen

[Balerion06]

My only (admittedly nitpicky) problem with Gared killing the mama direwolf is that there's no sign of blood or gore in his description when Ned and co. find him. One would think that sticking an antler dagger up a wolf's throat would leave you covered in the animal's blood.

It's possible that someone accompanied Gared, someone who could have forced the old ranger to use the Black Gate and take them both south with the direwolf to Winterfell, where said companion killed the wolf and abandoned Gared to his fate.

Then again I'm probably just overthinking this.

[Balerion06]

Like all good parties everybody winds up in the kitchen

The more I read about the divergences from book material, the more I'm convinced that the show is going in a completely different direction. By the time they get to the climax, the book's ending probably won't even make sense in the context of the show.

All their talk about how they're going to be spoiling the future books just sounds like marketing BS at this point; they can't admit that they're diverging because the whole idea about them spoiling the books has generated even more buzz for the show than before.

[Black Crow]

The more I read about the divergences from book material, the more I'm convinced that the show is going in a completely different direction. By the time they get to the climax, the book's ending probably won't even make sense in the context of the show.

All their talk about how they're going to be spoiling the future books just sounds like marketing BS at this point; they can't admit that they're diverging because the whole idea about them spoiling the books has generated even more buzz for the show than before.

Its the nature of the beast. The show has to be written for non-readers which means parts of the story have to be cut or re-shuffled and non-essential characters are omitted, amalgamated or at best killed off early while they concentrate on the core strands. Sometimes, paradoxically, because huge chunks of material are cut out to fit into the show format, other bits have to be invented to cover the gaps. Its the old business of different roads to the same castle. Yes there is divergence but in the end there will be a proper convergence.

[Black Crow]

My only (admittedly nitpicky) problem with Gared killing the mama direwolf is that there's no sign of blood or gore in his description when Ned and co. find him. One would think that sticking an antler dagger up a wolf's throat would leave you covered in the animal's blood.

It's possible that someone accompanied Gared, someone who could have forced the old ranger to use the Black Gate and take them both south with the direwolf to Winterfell, where said companion killed the wolf and abandoned Gared to his fate.

Then again I'm probably just overthinking this.

Possibly, but if he did the sensible thing and killed her while she was sleeping, an experienced ranger like he was ought to have been able to avoid most of it.