U.S. Politics: mid summer edition

[Hayyoth]

Uh oh!

 

http://time.com/3977941/hillary-clinton-poll-trump/

 

It amazes me that the Dems have hitched their wagon to this particular entitled, corrupt and broken down old horse. She was a crap candidate in 2008 and nothing has changed except she's 8 years older and perceived as even more corrupt and unlikeable. Of course she's sucked up all the money but someone apart from a far left joke candidate needs to run against her.

[Hayyoth]

Said it before, I'll say it again: Walker has a fair shot of ending up in a prison cell by election day. An event which no doubt will have half the Tea Party shouting 'conspiracy!' at the top of their lungs. At a minimum, he's been so close to so many crooked deals he won't pass the smell test with a lot of folks. I don't see him making it through the primaries.

Way I look at it, a successful republican candidate for POTUS has to appeal to at least four groups:

1 - the dwindling business oriented republican mainstream;

2 - the Tea Party 'proper';

3 - the Tea Party 'theocratic';

4 - some outside group (Hispanics, swing voters, ticked off democrats, or some such)

Romney had the support of 1, and the grudging support of 2. Theocratic faction never really bought into him because as a Mormon, he is automatically a heretic of the worst sort. And he lost as a direct result.

Jeb Bush is trying for 1, 2, and 4 (Hispanics), but is going to tick off a lot of group 2 supporters in the process. I see him failing by the same margin as Romney, if not more...unless the Democratic Candidate fizzles big time.

Most of the others are trying for a combination of 2 and 3. Again, there is no way they can garner enough support from those two groups to win the election. Even if the Democratic candidate fizzles big time.

Trump...2 and 4, with broader support from 4 than Bush can hope to get.

 

 

The race is between Bush and Walker, Trump is a very interesting distraction and Rubio just isn't a good enough campaigner or speaker.

[Red Tiger]

What role does Rand Paul play in all of this?

[Inigima]

I can't stand either but if I had to choose between Jeb and a soulless incarnation of evil like Walker, I'd choose Jeb every time.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

What role does Rand Paul play in all of this?

 

 Fourth Clown from the right.

[IheartIheartTesla]

The Democrats do have others in the race, they are Martin O' Malley and Jim Webb. Unfortunately, there is nothing to really distinguish them from the establishment candidate Hillary (I mean, they dont have an ideology that resonates with Democratic primary voters at this point). I yself dont know much about them .... Jim Webb has his veteran status and his foreign policy experience....and I think he wrote a couple o' novels at some point. O' Malley...did something or other as mayor/governor.

 

Also, I wouldn't pay too much attention to head-to-head match ups at this point. That Hillary Bush poll had something like 17% undecideds, and all the previous polls had her +3 up at least....still a long ways to go. Apart from my lukewarm to tepid feelings for her as a candidate, my other big worry about her is her ground game when it comes to the general. Going by her 2008 performance I hope she learned her lesson and opens field offices everywhere.

[DanteGabriel]

Also, I wouldn't pay too much attention to head-to-head match ups at this point. That Hillary Bush poll had something like 17% undecideds, and all the previous polls had her +3 up at least....still a long ways to go. Apart from my lukewarm to tepid feelings for her as a candidate, my other big worry about her is her ground game when it comes to the general. Going by her 2008 performance I hope she learned her lesson and opens field offices everywhere.

 

Well if she is the nominee her ground game will be the national party's. To a large extent she ought to inherit plenty of the people who worked on Obama's ground game in 2008 and 2012. Her primary staff was definitely outmaneuvered by Obama's in 2008.

[Kelli Fury]

IHeartTesla, you've forgotten Bernie Sanders, who just this Wednesday had 100,000 attendees to his live webcast organizing meeting and has had a larger number of individual donors than any other candidate this year.

[IheartIheartTesla]

I didnt forget him, I was responding to Hayyoth who mentioned we needed someone other than a far left joke candidate (his words, not mine).

 

As for the ground game, the 'big data' approach in 08' and '12 definitely helped Obama a lot (I'm getting emails from him for donations, and he isnt even running), but I wonder how much of it has ported over to the general Democratic party. Also, sometimes campaigns do funny things with the resources available to them - like pulling ads out of places they dont feel competitive, and when money starts to run out they'll need to make their responses sharp.

[Fez]

I can't stand either but if I had to choose between Jeb and a soulless incarnation of evil like Walker, I'd choose Jeb every time.

 

Yeah, I'd definitely take Jeb over Walker too, no question. I think I'd take absolutely any of the others over Walker, even Cruz; because the Senate GOP hates Cruz's guts so much they'd stonewall him nearly as much as a Democratic president. 

 

The only one I honestly wouldn't mind that much as President would be Pataki, and he doesn't have a chance in hell. And that's why Trump honestly is pretty high up my if-forced-to-pick GOP list, he's so idiosyncratic that at least there's a chance he'd do some stuff I like.

[Maithanet]

The only one I honestly wouldn't mind that much as President would be Pataki, and he doesn't have a chance in hell. And that's why Trump honestly is pretty high up my if-forced-to-pick GOP list, he's so idiosyncratic that at least there's a chance he'd do some stuff I like.

I feel like the question isn't if he'll do anything I like (they probably won't), but whether he can run the country competently, and not start any wars of choice.  I would need to read up on the candidates to get an idea on who I think would better fit that bill.  Rand Paul isn't a warmonger, although I don't know if he could be a competent executive. 

[Kelli Fury]

I didnt forget him, I was responding to Hayyoth who mentioned we needed someone other than a far left joke candidate (his words, not mine).
 
As for the ground game, the 'big data' approach in 08' and '12 definitely helped Obama a lot (I'm getting emails from him for donations, and he isnt even running), but I wonder how much of it has ported over to the general Democratic party. Also, sometimes campaigns do funny things with the resources available to them - like pulling ads out of places they dont feel competitive, and when money starts to run out they'll need to make their responses sharp.

My bad, I have that guy on ignore

[Durckad]

Rand Paul is whatever Rand Paul needs to be elected.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Rand Paul is whatever Rand Paul needs to be elected.

 

 Well then, he better figure out how to morph into a Giant Taco that poops Icecream pretty damn quick.

[Red Tiger]

 

 Well then, he better figure out how to morph into a Giant Taco that poops Icecream pretty damn quick.

Will he be visiting hookers and sucking jaggons?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Will he be visiting hookers and sucking jaggons?

 

 It couldn't hurt.

[TrackerNeil]

Also, I wouldn't pay too much attention to head-to-head match ups at this point. That Hillary Bush poll had something like 17% undecideds, and all the previous polls had her +3 up at least....still a long ways to go. Apart from my lukewarm to tepid feelings for her as a candidate, my other big worry about her is her ground game when it comes to the general. Going by her 2008 performance I hope she learned her lesson and opens field offices everywhere.

 

She's already learned some lessons, the most noteworthy being to box out your opponents early so they can't challenge you later. I notice she's taking more liberal stances, which means she's a bit more in tune with where the party is than she was in 2007. 

[MerenthaClone]

 

She's already learned some lessons, the most noteworthy being to box out your opponents early so they can't challenge you later. I notice she's taking more liberal stances, which means she's a bit more in tune with where the party is than she was in 2007. 

Well, minus her absurd waffling over this Planned Parenthood shit.  

[Shryke]

The Democrats do have others in the race, they are Martin O' Malley and Jim Webb. Unfortunately, there is nothing to really distinguish them from the establishment candidate Hillary (I mean, they dont have an ideology that resonates with Democratic primary voters at this point). I yself dont know much about them .... Jim Webb has his veteran status and his foreign policy experience....and I think he wrote a couple o' novels at some point. O' Malley...did something or other as mayor/governor.

 

Also, I wouldn't pay too much attention to head-to-head match ups at this point. That Hillary Bush poll had something like 17% undecideds, and all the previous polls had her +3 up at least....still a long ways to go. Apart from my lukewarm to tepid feelings for her as a candidate, my other big worry about her is her ground game when it comes to the general. Going by her 2008 performance I hope she learned her lesson and opens field offices everywhere.

 

Jim Webb is a worthless shit on things like race and just generally kinda shit.

 

O'Malley is the guy Carcetti is unsubtly based on and the Baltimore shit is gonna be a loadstone around his neck.

[TrackerNeil]

Well, minus her absurd waffling over this Planned Parenthood shit.  

 

Honestly, this PP stuff is going to amount to nothing, IMO, so I don't think it matters much what anyone says. (Assuming no one says something truly foolish.) The best thing for Clinton to do is to avoid the issue until it fades away, which I imagine it will soon. Come July 2016 nobody but hard-liners will remember this business, and we already know how those folks vote.