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NFL 2015 Week 1: Haters gonna Hate the GOAT


Trebla

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I wanna point out that this report from ESPN wasn't done by First Take or Monday Night Countdown and investigated by shill Chris Mortenson or troll Skip Bayless. This came from Outside The Lines which won a Peabody in 2013 for reporting on the NFL concussion issues.

 

There is a LOT to dislike about ESPN (Lord I do) but they have divisions within the umbrella of the WWL that are as it good as it gets. Kal mentioned Grantland earlier. OTL is right up there in investigative journalism as HBO Sports.

 

One issue that I have with the article is they way it portrays data analysis.  It makes it seem that good data analysis is in itself a nefarious act.    

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I wouldn't totally disagree with what either of you have said, the thing that always got me about LeBeau, and this even when he had talent everywhere, is that he never made in-game adjustments very well when things weren't working. And when your talent is not what it has been, making adjustments has to happen, and it didn't.

 

I don't know. I can think of quite a few times the Bengals played the Steelers, played well early on then was shut down in 2nd half. I'm not sure if he made adjustments or his players played better, but it was always very frustrating, to the point we always blamed our OC/HC for not making adjustments to counter theirs.

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 For everyone saying that this news is somehow "damaging" to the league, or even the Patriots somehow, all I have to say is take a close look at the results. Just in a microcosm, we had let the NFL page slip down to page 3 on the week of opening kickoff. Since the news hit today, there have already been over 50 comments about it.

 

 I don't think a single person who cares enough to listen to this news is not going to tune into games, and I think the vilification of the Patriots will actually get more people watching. This is some Vince McMahon style promotion here, and it is effective. 

 

I do not say that in defense of the Patriots as I freely admit to being a Pats hater. I am fairly typical as a sports fan however in that I choose to watch games based on whether I love a team, or am rooting against a team. This news gets me to watch the Patriots for the latter reasons and is nothing but good for the league and the Pats.

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 The Patriots do seem to be smarter and better than most other franchises.  I would say that the Pats are about as honest and about as "good" as every other team.  

 

 

 As much as I hate to agree with this, it is pretty much what I'm left with after skimming the OTL story and reading the Deadspin response. They put more effort into it than anybody else (the spying and deciphering of signals) and they employed it more effectively than anyone else did.

 

 That's not to suggest that they didn't deserve their punishment when they ignored the league memo, they clearly did, but their initial actions were in line with what everyone else was doing.

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 As much as I hate to agree with this, it is pretty much what I'm left with after skimming the OTL story and reading the Deadspin response. They put more effort into it than anybody else (the spying and deciphering of signals) and they employed it more effectively than anyone else did.

 

 That's not to suggest that they didn't deserve their punishment when they ignored the league memo, they clearly did, but their initial actions were in line with what everyone else was doing.

 

And like I said above, it seems to me that the article takes offense that they were more organized and more effective analysts.  (Being an analyst myself, this strikes close to home)

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And like I said above, it seems to me that the article takes offense that they were more organized and more effective analysts.  (Being an analyst myself, this strikes close to home)

 

 Well there are still some viable examples of shadiness that go beyond the pale. Having team employees covering logos with tape and claiming to be employees of NFL Films or Kraft Productions, first and foremost. That being said, they were clearly in another class when it came to employing this information to advantage at gametime.  

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I think that most teams, at least pre-2007, have tried stealing signals, but rarely get any benefit. I'd imagine that trying to guess a team's signals can be thrown off pretty easily by some simple countermeasures, like having three or four different people call different plays, but only the defense knows which signals are the 'real ones.' I'm sure there are plenty of other countermeasures that baseball teams use that could help. The difference is that the Patriots analyzed the data better and could find the signal in the noise (thank you Nate Silver).

 

It's also not the only form of spying. There's a reason why coaches cover their mouths with their playsheets and why Don Schula was paranoid that the Redskins were filming his practices before the Superbowl. And it wouldn't surprise me if Belichick found some whiz kid hackers who could crack into whatever shitty proprietary software NFL teams use on their tablets.

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 Well there are still some viable examples of shadiness that go beyond the pale. Having team employees covering logos with tape and claiming to be employees of NFL Films or Kraft Productions, first and foremost. That being said, they were clearly in another class when it came to employing this information to advantage at gametime.  

 

I am a DIE HARD Pats fan, that being said .... I am disappointed with some of the shadiness outlined in the article.  

 

Belichick (and Adams) rely on information more than any other coaching staff in history.  I get the feeling that they believed that since most of the other teams did not value information the way they did, the methods in which they gathered it would be overlooked.  Taking the "bending" the rules to the extreme (or in the case of Spygate, ignoring the memo).  

 

It's only in the current light where most teams employ some sort of data analysis and that he Patriots have proven that information is a key to success, that we look back at the "shady" practices that the Patriots used and now try to crucify them for it.   

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I think that most teams, at least pre-2007, have tried stealing signals, but rarely get any benefit. I'd imagine that trying to guess a team's signals can be thrown off pretty easily by some simple countermeasures, like having three or four different people call different plays, but only the defense knows which signals are the 'real ones.' I'm sure there are plenty of other countermeasures that baseball teams use that could help. The difference is that the Patriots analyzed the data better and could find the signal in the noise (thank you Nate Silver).

 

 

 I'm guessing that this is (at least in part) what prompted the "where you filmed from" rules that were laid out. Like if you could film the O or D line and have the opponents sideline in the same shot, it would be considerably easier to determine who was making the "real" calls.  

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Another thing that makes the timing of this OTL report kind of funny is that the NFL Network is supposed to air "Do Your Job" -- a documentary about the Pats' 2014 season -- either tonight or tomorrow night. It's supposed to include interviews with Belichick's secret data ninja, Ernie Adams. Apparently Adams figured out the Seahawks might try that ill-fated pass in the Super Bowl. No wonder Belichick didn't call a time-out!

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I don't know. I can think of quite a few times the Bengals played the Steelers, played well early on then was shut down in 2nd half. I'm not sure if he made adjustments or his players played better, but it was always very frustrating, to the point we always blamed our OC/HC for not making adjustments to counter theirs.


I think LeBeau was able to adapt, but didn't like it when he had to. He could be very slow in recognizing weaknesses in his schemes. At the same time, a lot of the success in his d was reliant upon the players. If they weren't performing, it was gonna look bad. Troy had pretty much free reign to do whatever he wanted. So I always saw it as a little of both. Being slow to adapt in a given game, and the players not performing to standard.
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The Patriots do seem to be smarter and better than most other franchises.  I would say that the Pats are about as honest and about as "good" as every other team.  

 

They're certainly top decile in cheating...

 

That could easily be Belichik's weakness. He knows he's not good with public relations, so his usual strategy is say as little as possible as uninterestingly as possible. When that doesn't work, it all breaks down.

 

If January's press conferences taught be anything, it's that BB is a much more accomplished liar than Tom ('I know you're lying, your lips are moving...) Brady.  I think you're underestimating BB's PR knowledge though.  It's kind of like getting a 400 on the SATs by accident.  (If that's still the scale - the point being, you have to actually know the true answer to be able to avoid it so consistently.)

 

 

OTL did publish a story about three weeks after the Super Bowl, talking about how Jim McNally tried to get an unapproved kicking ball into the AFC Championship game (on top of the throwing ball skullduggery he'd be linked to). Then, literally as the reporter was talking about the story on an OTL broadcast, Adam Schefter broke the news that the unapproved kicking ball had actually been handed to McNally by an NFL employee, who was fired for apparently running a side-business in "game used" balls. Of course, that NFL employee never became a public whipping boy and we never had a months-long investigation into what happened there. Funnily enough, ESPN never substantially corrected the initial report, even though they did correct some minutiae within it -- they just linked to Schefter's report in an "editor's picks" sidebar.

 

None of which actually disproves the allegations against the Patriots, but it does demonstrate that OTL is not immune to mistakes or to getting fed BS too.

 

I can easily believe the political backbiting the article gets into, and I've long suspected that the Spygate filming was more extensive than was revealed and that Goodell finished off the investigation quickly to minimize damage to the league's credibility.

 

It's still difficult for me to get past my admittedly homeristic skepticism of people like Hines Ward, who at least had the courage to put his name to his words, unlike the legion of anonymous bitter former players and coaches singing all these songs about how they coulda shoulda been the champeens.

 

Oh, and hey, Bill Simmons.

 

Speaking of whom, is BS doing anything besides twitter yet?  I noticed that Grantland finally ditched the 'Simmons' tab and his summer movie part 1 podcast listing around Sep 1.  Has he started a new property yet?

 

And just for the sake of comity with DG, making up 2 games a week from here on out and Hanley is right about shocking the world.  Almost sounds doable...

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Speaking of whom, is BS doing anything besides twitter yet?  I noticed that Grantland finally ditched the 'Simmons' tab and his summer movie part 1 podcast listing around Sep 1.  Has he started a new property yet?

 

 

He will be working for HBO Sports. 

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Just a thought that could maybe be a little fun, would you guys be interested at all in maybe doing a weekly thread-wide breakdown/preview of upcoming games? I love it when you guys chime in with detail and I think it's fun to do so myself, and I know there's occasionally bouts of predictions and whatnot, but I'm suggesting more that we each take a few teams (preferably not your favorite and not your most hated) and throughout the year everyone makes a post about what they're expecting to see the night before the games.

 

One thing that I think could be really fun with this idea is when 2 people are inevitably previewing the same game from the perspective of the different teams and we can get to see who was the most accurate in their assessment.

 

There's really not much else to say about the idea, it would obviously just be something done for fun, but what do you guys think? Any interest or should I shut the fuck up?

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Jace, I did that in 06 and 07 and I think it went well. But at the time I was maybe the only NFL fan on the (much smaller) board that worked Saturday nights. And each thread was by week instead of just hitting 400 posts.

Probably if Trebla says go for it, go for it.

For me, it helped me keep track of the whole league in the hopes that I wouldn't sound like a complete idiot. Whether or not I pulled it off...
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