Chaircat Meow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: is there also a degree that graduates are more pro remain, and are more likely to vote? in addition i think a lot of leave people may be surprised to find that they were supposed to register. Graduates are more pro-Remain yes, although whether that's actually just due to their age I don't know. Unlike in Scotland Brexit has the grey vote, which is the big demographic advantage to have in an election, but this will be offset somewhat by Remain doing better among more well off voters. In 2014 the SNP were up against the grey vote and the rich vote. Conventional wisdom is that it is Remain who have the issue with voters failing to register. The young, who, in so far as they vote, are more pro-Remain, are more likely to be off the register. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 46 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: what are the bookies seeing that opinion polls aren't? it is currently 1/2 in favour of remain. They might also be remembering the fantastic job the polls did of predicting Ed Milliband's election as Prime Minister 12 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Turns out one of Farage's boats from today's shenanigans was involved in a massive case of fishing quota fraud. "A trawler once involved in Britain's biggest fishing fraud and now owned by a Sunday Times Rich List millionaire is an unfortunate choice to lead a flotilla supposed to represent a fishing industry on its last leg because of Brussels." Quote It won't, because even if people weren't at this stage just kicking against scare tactics on general fed-up principle, everyone knows that if Leave wins, he won't be chancellor. Osborne has been a shambles as chancellor and if we do leave, his (hopefully swift and ignomious) exile back into the obscure and bleak void from whence he came will be one mitigating factor. At least right up until we find out his replacement is someone like Gove or IDS (shudder). Also hearing some rumblings in the media of discontent on the issue as it relates to Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement and its implementation were formed with Britain and Ireland both being in the EU, and the EU has been a useful forum for discussions between the two countries. Certainly being able to pull down the border crossings and let people move back and forth almost like they were in one country has helped a lot with that. The forum for discussions isn't a big problem and I don't see much chance of a return to the Troubles, but the political side of things could get a lot more stressful if we have to put the border crossings back in place, which of course we will. You can't spend years screaming about "taking control of the border" (when we only have one land border with the rest of the EU) and then leaving it open to anyone who wants to cross over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12 hours ago, Werthead said: You can't spend years screaming about "taking control of the border" (when we only have one land border with the rest of the EU) and then leaving it open to anyone who wants to cross over. And yet this is exactly what Leave campaigners say will happen. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35692452 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36448599 Now, they're either talking crap, or undermining the whole point of their campaign. Make up your own mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Leave ahead six points with Ipsos Mori, 53 (+ 11), 47 (- 11). Absolutely massive swing since last poll. edit: it was a phone poll but there has been a methodology change. Mori thought they had too many graduates, so they may have ended up adding 2 points to the Leave lead to correct for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The last MORI poll was 55/37 Remain or 60/40 if you exclude don't knows. On the new methodology, it would have been 57/43 Remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Looking at the sub-samples, it's left wing voters that are winning this for Leave. Most still favour Remain, but there's been a very big shift from 25-30% of left wing voters favouring Leave to c.40% now. There's a massive cultural divide between left wing voters in London and core cities, and left wing voters in places like Doncaster, Rotherham, South Tyneside, Sandwell and Stoke. The Labour Leave, and Trade Union Leave campaigns have really resonated with the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Cameron on his way to Gibraltar apparently. The electorate there is too small to matter, so maybe he's going to suggest Spain will attack us if we leave. The Spanish are said to be unhappy about his plan to make a campaign stop there anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 19 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: Cameron on his way to Gibraltar apparently. The electorate there is too small to matter, so maybe he's going to suggest Spain will attack us if we leave. The Spanish are said to be unhappy about his plan to make a campaign stop there anyway. If the margin were very tight, a few thousand votes from Gibraltar could win it for Remain. Another phone poll now has Leave ahead, Survation has Leave 45%, Remain 42%, Undecided 13%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Just now, SeanF said: If the margin were very tight, a few thousand votes from Gibraltar could win it for Remain. Another phone poll now has Leave ahead, Survation has Leave 45%, Remain 42%, Undecided 13%. How did you get that so fast! I've got Survation's twitter open on my screen now. Huh. Leave's majorities in the phone polls are not big enough to save them from a late status quo swing and there are still a lot of undecided voters. Survation say Leave + 7 and Remain - 2, so not as huge a swing as Mori, but they never had Leave doing as badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: How did you get that so fast! I've got Survation's twitter open on my screen now. Huh. Leave's majorities in the phone polls are not big enough to save them from a late status quo swing and there are still a lot of undecided voters. Survation say Leave + 7 and Remain - 2, so not as huge a swing as Mori, but they never had Leave doing as badly. Yes. Is this Leave's high water mark, or is there now unstoppable momentum to Leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, SeanF said: Yes. Is this Leave's high water mark, or is there now unstoppable momentum to Leave? What do you think of all these rumours about postal votes being awful for Remain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: What do you think of all these rumours about postal votes being awful for Remain? Postal votes now have to be placed into two envelopes, and only the first is opened as part of the process of verification. So, you can't tell how people have voted at the opening stage (previously, they were only placed in one envelope, so experienced counting agents could get an idea how the postal voting was going). However, we can make a reasonable guess about which local authority districts will be strong for Leave, and which are strong for Remain. Broadly speaking, Scotland, core cities, university cities, most London Boroughs will be strong for Remain. Rural England and Wales, plus smaller cities,(places like Plymouth, Portsmouth, Bournemouth,) and counties like Kent, Essex, South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire will be strong for Leave. If the rumours about postal votes being very good for Leave are true, it will be because an unusually large number of postal votes are being cast in areas that are good for Leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, SeanF said: Postal votes now have to be placed into two envelopes, and only the first is opened as part of the process of verification. So, you can't tell how people have voted at the opening stage (previously, they were only placed in one envelope, so experienced counting agents could get an idea how the postal voting was going). However, we can make a reasonable guess about which local authority districts will be strong for Leave, and which are strong for Remain. Broadly speaking, Scotland, core cities, university cities, most London Boroughs will be strong for Remain. Rural England and Wales, plus smaller cities,(places like Plymouth, Portsmouth, Bournemouth,) and counties like Kent, Essex, South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire will be strong for Leave. If the rumours about postal votes being very good for Leave are true, it will be because an unusually large number of postal votes are being cast in areas that are good for Leave. So, if rumours are true and the shadow cabinet is really alarmed, it will be because so many postal votes have been received from working class labour areas inclined to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 1 minute ago, SeanF said: If the rumours about postal votes being very good for Leave are true, it will be because an unusually large number of postal votes are being cast in areas that are good for Leave. Not necessarily. I could make a good argument that postal voters are naturally going to be people who are very committed to one side or the other, since they need to be aware and organised enough to arrange a postal vote and less interested in being persuaded by the actual campaign. Leave probably has more of those throughout the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 55 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: Cameron on his way to Gibraltar apparently. The electorate there is too small to matter, so maybe he's going to suggest Spain will attack us if we leave. The Spanish are said to be unhappy about his plan to make a campaign stop there anyway. Why does he feel the need to go there? They're clearly going to be heavily remain - being in the EU is the main reason Spain doesn't arbitrarily close the border whenever they like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said: Not necessarily. I could make a good argument that postal voters are naturally going to be people who are very committed to one side or the other, since they need to be aware and organised enough to arrange a postal vote and less interested in being persuaded by the actual campaign. Leave probably has more of those throughout the country. That's possibly right. But, Remain are generally reckoned to have a strong lead among professional people, who usually vote by post in large numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: So, if rumours are true and the shadow cabinet is really alarmed, it will be because so many postal votes have been received from working class labour areas inclined to leave. I think it's their experience of canvassing Labour areas that has really alarmed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Reports coming in that Jo Cox MP has been shot and stabbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said: Reports coming in that Jo Cox MP has been shot and stabbed. along with one other person being stabbed. no real details yet, I hope they both make a full recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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