Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Just now, Cato.the.Elder said: I would even say that it's the other way around: if the UK leaves (and I hope it doesn't), being a disaster (borders are always a disaster except for the few that have money and power enough to not care about them), also gives some hope to the EU to go back to its socialdemocrat and christiandemocrat roots. Neoliberalism is mostly an anglosaxon idea (Reagan and Tatcher), and a UK out of Europe would definitely be much more neoliberal than it is now. I agree. Moving out of Europe would probably end up with us being far more right wing and neo liberal, moving towards a Thatcherite style of government. Remember one of the complaints about europe is that it imposes mainly left wing socialist policies on us.. like protecting worker rights and human rights! Outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jo498 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cato.the.Elder said: I would even say that it's the other way around: if the UK leaves (and I hope it doesn't), being a disaster (borders are always a disaster except for the few that have money and power enough to not care about them), also gives some hope to the EU to go back to its socialdemocrat and christiandemocrat roots. Neoliberalism is mostly an anglosaxon idea (Reagan and Tatcher), and a UK out of Europe would definitely be much more neoliberal than it is now. As an idea it is quite Austrian but as a policy it's anglo-saxon One problem I see is that Germany "flipped" to a considerable extent to the neoliberal madness in the last 15-20 years and at least in theory many politicians, journalists etc. subscribe to it. So I am not sure if a Brexit would let us return to 1970s/80s consensus on social policies because you know, globalization. And all those tax havens and loopholes seem to be impossible to close or more precisely: nobody in power really wants to and with e.g. Luxembourg wielding disproportionate power in the EU it is not likely that things will become better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 14 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said: I agree. Moving out of Europe would probably end up with us being far more right wing and neo liberal, moving towards a Thatcherite style of government. Remember one of the complaints about europe is that it imposes mainly left wing socialist policies on us.. like protecting worker rights and human rights! Outrageous. At the last general election, the left wing parties won 48%, and the right wing parties won 51%, which is close to parity. One day, if not in 2020, certainly by 2025, the tide will turn in favour of the left, and they'll win an election. That is as likely to happen outside the EU as inside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 If the Leave vote wasn't looming so terrifyingly as an actual possibility, I'd be quite enjoying the breathtaking arrogance of George Osbourne trying to get people to vote Stay via what is essentially a protection racket with his proposed budget. I thought I hated him when I was against him, but it turns out it's even worse when he's on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, DjourouLoveMe? said: If the Leave vote wasn't looming so terrifyingly as an actual possibility, I'd be quite enjoying the breathtaking arrogance of George Osbourne trying to get people to vote Stay via what is essentially a protection racket with his proposed budget. I thought I hated him when I was against him, but it turns out it's even worse when he's on your side. Since this is Westeros.Org, I see Osborne as Aerys II, shouting "Burn them All" as his opponents close in. But, it may work. If you've got some loon with a can of petrol and a lighter threatening to burn down the Treasury, a lot of people will give him what he wants. Of course, they'll probably want to impale him afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cato.the.Elder Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Jo498 said: As an idea it is quite Austrian but as a policy it's anglo-saxon That's, of course, a good and true remark... 1 minute ago, Jo498 said: One problem I see is that Germany "flipped" to a considerable extent to the neoliberal madness in the last 15-20 years and at least in theory many politicians, journalists etc. subscribe to it. So I am not sure if a Brexit would let us return to 1970s/80s consensus on social policies because you know, globalization. And all those tax havens and loopholes seem to be impossible to close or more precisely: nobody in power really wants to and with e.g. Luxembourg wielding disproportionate power in the EU it is not likely that things will become better. With the UK leaving would disappear one of the main defenders of the neoliberal policies, so things might get a bit better., with France (and Italy and Spain) gaining more weight that they have now. But I'm afraid that you are right, and this is why I said "some hope", but I don't think there is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, SeanF said: But, it may work. It won't, because even if people weren't at this stage just kicking against scare tactics on general fed-up principle, everyone knows that if Leave wins, he won't be chancellor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Nice little naval engagement going on in the Thames. Nigel Farage's Brexit 'flotilla' (thirty boats) vs about 6 Remainian dinghies and Bob Geldof. Apparently some fisherman are trying to board the Geldof boat and they've also been attacking it with hoses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 After months of sober and rational discussion it's sad to see the Brexit debate descend into farce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Ipsos Mori (presumably phone) from Scotland. Remain 64 (- 6) Leave 36 (+ 6), swings from last poll in April. So some signs Remain Lead in Scotland weakening in line with rest of the country, but Scotland will still vote heavily to Remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A wilding Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 3 hours ago, SeanF said: At the last general election, the left wing parties won 48%, and the right wing parties won 51%, which is close to parity. One day, if not in 2020, certainly by 2025, the tide will turn in favour of the left, and they'll win an election. That is as likely to happen outside the EU as inside it. The majority of that 48% voted for new Labour, which, since Blair, had embraced neo liberalism. A lot of those voters would appear to be unwilling to vote for the Corbyn version of Labour. I also think that a post Brexit UK would go neo liberal in a big way and rush into any "trade" agreements offered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Comparing the polling to 12 months ago. Yougov (June 2015) Remain 44/38%; now 39/46% ORB (June 2015) Remain 55/45%; now 45/55%. Com Res (June 2015) 58/31%; now 46/45%. ICM (June 2015) 47/33%; now 45/50%. Ipsos Mori (June 2015) 66/22%; a month ago 55/37% (the next poll is due tomorrow, and will likely show a further shift to Leave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I can't imagine support for leaving has ever been as a low as 22% personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 30 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: I can't imagine support for leaving has ever been as a low as 22% personally. I think the general view was that that was an outlier. I can remember being very disappointed when it came out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 what are the bookies seeing that opinion polls aren't? it is currently 1/2 in favour of remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Bets already placed. At this stage bookie odds are based on where the money has been placed; not what the polls say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: what are the bookies seeing that opinion polls aren't? it is currently 1/2 in favour of remain. They're expecting a late swing to Remain. In most referendums the status quo gains at the last moment. In the Scottish referendum the polls said Better Together had a 5-6 point lead, but it became a 10 point lead on the night. But I think if Ipsos Mori or Survation show a Brexit lead Leave will become the favourites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The prediction markets usually don't align themselves with the polls, especially when the latter are inconclusive. Leave is generally believed to be a radical outcome so unless the polls unambiguously show it 10% ahead, people are hesitant to back it. That said, the markets did move quite a bit lately: PredictWise shows that at its peak near the end of May, Remain was at 82% whereas now it is down to 63%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 is there also a degree that graduates are more pro remain, and are more likely to vote? in addition i think a lot of leave people may be surprised to find that they were supposed to register. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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