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NBA PLAYOFFS cont'd - Riders on the Storm


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22 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

3-and-D guys are obviously valuable, but they're a lot easier to find than great rebounders, and guys who can create their own shot, and OKC already has both of those things covered. 

Actually I'm not sure that's true. OKC has been trying to find complimentary swing men for years for their big 2 and have only had modest success with a Hail Mary for Dion Waiters. I mean there's always guys like Biyombo or Kris Humphries or Kanter that will be out there who can clean up the glass. And most guys who can create their own shot are stars to begin with (with the exception of Dion Waiters after a couple Red Bulls on the sidelines).  

What every contending team needs these days are guys who can stay on the court in crunch time against the elite teams you have to beat to win a title (i.e.: Golden State and Cleveland) without being a massive liability and there's just not enough of them to go around. Especially as teams are now happy playing 3-4 swing guys at the same time as opposed to, at most, 1 big man. Most of the ones out there aren't good enough shooters or don't play enough defense or are too old. 

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6 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Actually I'm not sure that's true. OKC has been trying to find complimentary swing men for years for their big 2 and have only had modest success with a Hail Mary for Dion Waiters. I mean there's always guys like Biyombo or Kris Humphries or Kanter that will be out there who can clean up the glass. And most guys who can create their own shot are stars to begin with (with the exception of Dion Waiters after a couple Red Bulls on the sidelines). 

But I feel like this paragraph is agreeing with me.  Most guys who are great rebounders are often poor defenders in space, but Adams is capable of covering most PFs in the league, and Ibaka has no trouble going out in space.  Getting guys who are both athletic enough to rebound consistently and who aren't a defensive liability against a GSW smallball lineup is really hard.  But OKC has those guys. 

And while you always want guys who can create thier own shot, 2 is enough IF the other guys can make open shots that are handed to them.  That second skill is a lot easier to find than actual shot creators.

Quote

What every contending team needs these days are guys who can stay on the court in crunch time against the elite teams you have to beat to win a title (i.e.: Golden State and Cleveland) without being a massive liability and there's just not enough of them to go around. Especially as teams are now happy playing 3-4 swing guys at the same time as opposed to, at most, 1 big man. Most of the ones out there aren't good enough shooters or don't play enough defense or are too old. 

It's true that there aren't enough of those guys to go around, but the Thunder are really close.  They have four of the five positions in Adams, Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook.  They just need a guy who can defend one or more of the PG/SG/SF positions and who can hit open shots when the defender leaves him.  There aren't a ton of guys that can do that, but there are definitely some. 

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But I feel like this paragraph is agreeing with me.  Most guys who are great rebounders are often poor defenders in space, but Adams is capable of covering most PFs in the league, and Ibaka has no trouble going out in space.  Getting guys who are both athletic enough to rebound consistently and who aren't a defensive liability against a GSW smallball lineup is really hard.  But OKC has those guys. 

And while you always want guys who can create thier own shot, 2 is enough IF the other guys can make open shots that are handed to them.  That second skill is a lot easier to find than actual shot creators.

It's true that there aren't enough of those guys to go around, but the Thunder are really close.  They have four of the five positions in Adams, Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook.  They just need a guy who can defend one or more of the PG/SG/SF positions and who can hit open shots when the defender leaves him.  There aren't a ton of guys that can do that, but there are definitely some. 

Yeah I agree with your larger point that OKC is in great shape and has the kind of pieces you can't find anywhere else (although I do think Ibaka is gone after this year). Just wanted to emphasize how critical good swing men are. Igoudala is worth his weight in gold for what he does. They're the new big men - so hard to find. 

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3 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 This might be the most loaded Crying Jordan meme I've ever seen. Of course I have to share it.

 So with that I give you The OKC Trail of Tears...

  OKC%20Trail%20of%20Tears_zpsrpvebqlp.jpg

You disgust me. Just kidding, I love you.

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1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I agree with 90% of this, and I don't think he's leaving. The one reason I can see him wanting to leave would be to separate himself from Westbrook. As great a talent as he is, I just don't think he's a true Point Guard.

I've always been of the belief that he'd be best suited paired with a tall PG, so that he can play the 2 on offense and switch to the 1 on defense. 

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

It actually doesn't destroy their ability to bring in role players. Because contracts are % based and Thompson and Green's contracts were signed before the cap increases this year and next year, their contracts aren't going to be close to max contracts anymore. So the Warriors could keep them, sign Durant to a max, sign Curry to a max, and keep Bogut and Iguodula or bring in some other $10 million guys instead. So it doesn't necessarily harm GS at all; so long as Durant didn't mess up their chemistry and was willing to accept a Bosh/Love-type of role.

I don't see why Durant would want to do that, I agree its more likely that if he left he would go to somewhere like the Lakers where he can be the alpha and become the next Kobe for that city. But if he really wanted to win more than anything else, pulling a LeBron with a "join them instead of beat them" attitude, going to GS is available.

 

LeBron was still the alpha on Miami.  KD isn't if he goes to Golden State.  and yes they can sign him to a max.  But they have nothing else on the roster at that point. Durant and Steph would eat up $70 million in cap alone, plus $36 million for Draymond and Klay.  You're into the tax with 4 players at that point, and that's before you've had a chance to pay Klay and Draymond.

 

And there is 0% that he doesn't sign the 1 year deal with Okc this offseason.  It makes zero sense competitively or financially not to. So the real Durant FA sweepstakes happen after next season.

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3 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

LeBron was still the alpha on Miami.  KD isn't if he goes to Golden State.  and yes they can sign him to a max.  But they have nothing else on the roster at that point. Durant and Steph would eat up $70 million in cap alone, plus $36 million for Draymond and Klay.  You're into the tax with 4 players at that point, and that's before you've had a chance to pay Klay and Draymond.

 

And there is 0% that he doesn't sign the 1 year deal with Okc this offseason.  It makes zero sense competitively or financially not to. So the real Durant FA sweepstakes happen after next season.

I'd argue Wade was actually the Alpha that first year and part of the second year too. I don't remember all the math for contracts, but Curry+Durant are not $70 million per year; I believe Durant's max will be about $29 million per year and Curry's will be about $25 million per year (Durant has more years of service, he's in the next tier) if they sign/get extensions after this season. So about $54 million. And Klay and Draymond are already locked up for the next several years. So that's $90 million for the four of them, which will probably be a couple million below the cap next season and well below the cap in 2017 (which may hit $108 million then); and there's always exemptions to retain their own players. The math could work, if everyone wanted it to. Unlikely, but possible.

I agree that him staying with OKC is the most likely by far. It could be more than 1 year though, if he's concerned enough about getting injured again.

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21 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'd argue Wade was actually the Alpha that first year and part of the second year too. I don't remember all the math for contracts, but Curry+Durant are not $70 million per year; I believe Durant's max will be about $29 million per year and Curry's will be about $25 million per year (Durant has more years of service, he's in the next tier) if they sign/get extensions after this season. So about $54 million. And Klay and Draymond are already locked up for the next several years. So that's $90 million for the four of them, which will probably be a couple million below the cap next season and well below the cap in 2017 (which may hit $108 million then); and there's always exemptions to retain their own players. The math could work, if everyone wanted it to. Unlikely, but possible.

I agree that him staying with OKC is the most likely by far. It could be more than 1 year though, if he's concerned enough about getting injured again.

 

Again, that's why Durant is signing the 1 year deal.  He hits the 10 year veteran (i.e. super max threshold) at that point.  He will get closer to 40 million at that point.

 

He has to believe they can win a championship as configured, and he's right. He's going to give it another go. This isn't LeBron in Cleveland where it was clear the team was going nowhere.

 

 

And we're really saying "Russell Westbrook can't play PG" after the Thunder took the "greatest team of all time" to the 4th quarter of the 7th game of the Western conference finals? If Russ isn't a point guard then Chris Paul is the only point guard in the league.

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Durant interviews of today have him not exactly saying it's a done deal.

He's definitely saying he will leave his options open and take his time to decide what to do, who he will see etc.

OKC still the big favorite to retain him, but if he knew what he would be doing ( and whatever he may say, he's had time to think about this throughout the year) then he would maybe close it down a bit more already? Maybe I'm being naïeve, but I thought he might be the guy to just shut down speculation. He's not doing that.

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2 hours ago, sperry said:

And we're really saying "Russell Westbrook can't play PG" after the Thunder took the "greatest team of all time" to the 4th quarter of the 7th game of the Western conference finals? If Russ isn't a point guard then Chris Paul is the only point guard in the league.

I'm not saying he can't play PG, I'm saying his default mindset isn't well suited to the position. It's interesting that you bring up Paul, because I believe he's pretty much the avatar of what you want at that position.

 

/And just to clarify further, he did an awesome job of holding Curry down for most of this series. He didn't really get loose until late in Game 6. That was a team effort in part, but Westbrook was a big part. 

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23 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'm not saying he can't play PG, I'm saying his default mindset isn't well suited to the position. It's interesting that you bring up Paul, because I believe he's pretty much the avatar of what you want at that position.

 

/And just to clarify further, he did an awesome job of holding Curry down for most of this series. He didn't really get loose until late in Game 6. That was a team effort in part, but Westbrook was a big part. 

I used to be a strong adherent to the necessity of a pass first PG but I think it's less relevant in today's game. Look at Curry after all. Felt like him creating his own shot from wherever was always going to be a higher percentage play than feeding Mo Buckets in the post last night. Lillard and Westbrook, same way. Hell, I spent most of last season wanting Wall to be more selfish. Feel like the classic positional responsibilities are going away more and more. Now it's just about who breaks down a defense best, either with his scoring or his passing or his range, but for the best teams, there's guys who can do all three of these things at any position. 

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Just had a chance to watch the full 7th game. It was another tense one as you guys had clearly experienced already live, last night.

To judge the players and teams for a bit, I think Westbrook overall had a good series, but not a really great one. 

Can't really fault him, like everyone else, Durant included, he gave massive effort. But Russ was not consistently great like he can sometimes be.His shooting let him down in some games, and that remains the weakest part of his game. Felt like he more than held his own against Curry, but Curry also held his own as well.

Durant wasn't feeling it this series and it was the same in game 7 in my opinion. He wasn't bad, but I think he achieved less of his potential in this series than for instance Westbrook did. He just wasn't able to really produce when the team needed it most, we did not see the games in which he really blows people out of the building. He's grown in some ways as a leader and as a defender, but with so few good options, this team needs him to be top notch offensively, and he wasn't even close to that.

I think OKC loses this in the end due to Durant not being in top shape, and the fact thet they get nothing from their bench, outside of Kanter and Waiters. It's really quite unacceptable how little they get. Add to that the fact that Roberson is at best a haphazard shooter, that Adams is only used a couple of times a game offfensively, well as an opponent you know it's going to be Durant, Russ, or maybe Ibaka that gets the ball. As Jaime mentioned, Roberson also clearly did not want the ball anymore, discouraged as he was by his own poor shooting. Honestly I can understand why he feels that way and gave up that open 3. But it also indicates that he isn't an option offensively and that means you're playing 4 against 5.

Golden State has a much better bench than OKC. And in the end, Klay and Curry just decided this series in GSW's favour.

 

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23 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

I used to be a strong adherent to the necessity of a pass first PG but I think it's less relevant in today's game. Look at Curry after all. Felt like him creating his own shot from wherever was always going to be a higher percentage play than feeding Mo Buckets in the post last night. Lillard and Westbrook, same way. Hell, I spent most of last season wanting Wall to be more selfish. Feel like the classic positional responsibilities are going away more and more. Now it's just about who breaks down a defense best, either with his scoring or his passing or his range, but for the best teams, there's guys who can do all three of these things at any position. 

 I agree with this on its face, but I think the rules are going to be a little different for each guy, dependent upon his skill set. For sure, Curry firing up a contested 3 more often than not is almost as good as finding the open man. I'm not sure that really applies to any other PG outside of maybe Lillard. It seems to me that Westbrook is so good at collapsing a defense off the dribble, that it would behoove him to work on getting the ball out after he does that. He's so good at finishing that it kind of feels like he's neglected the option somewhat. 

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11 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 I agree with this on its face, but I think the rules are going to be a little different for each guy, dependent upon his skill set. For sure, Curry firing up a contested 3 more often than not is almost as good as finding the open man. I'm not sure that really applies to any other PG outside of maybe Lillard. It seems to me that Westbrook is so good at collapsing a defense off the dribble, that it would behoove him to work on getting the ball out after he does that. He's so good at finishing that it kind of feels like he's neglected the option somewhat. 

He had 10.4 assists per game, 2nd in the league

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1 minute ago, Kindly Old Man said:

He had 10.4 assists per game, 2nd in the league

I was just going to say the same thing. Westbrook is the greatest triple double machine I've ever witnessed. I think he facilitates pretty damn well. He just also happens to be a relentless slasher.

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4 minutes ago, Kindly Old Man said:

He had 10.4 assists per game, 2nd in the league

 

2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I was just going to say the same thing. Westbrook is the greatest triple double machine I've ever witnessed. I think he facilitates pretty damn well. He just also happens to be a relentless slasher.

Yeah, his numbers are good, but it seemed like for much of this series that number seemed greatly inflated by him just flipping the ball to Durant who then buried a difficult shot. It didn't seem like I saw a lot of him driving the lane, then passing out to an open perimeter guy. 

This series was far and away the most I've seen him play in a long time though. Perhaps it was too small a sample size.

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