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R+L=J v.161

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7 minutes ago, The Wolves said:

I doubt it. 

The throne passes over females before males. Dorne is also not a very powerful kingdom. 

Dorne might be poorer, but not less powerful. 

Daeron was supported by them and we know what happened later.

 

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Here is another, better example of the sort of thing I posted up thread. The basic idea is that I feel like GRRM is either trying to subconsciously get us thinking about Jon, or subtly communicate information about him. The link here is three women pleading for an innocent life. We know what two of them were pleading for, but the third one is meant to be a mystery. If, as I believe, all three are linked by this "pleading," then the first two just might be able to help us figure out what the third one was pleading about.

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship’s black sails. Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. The sack of King’s Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper’s dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark. Princess Elia of Dorne pleading for mercy as Rhaegar’s heir was ripped from her breast and murdered before her eyes. The polished skulls of the last dragons staring down sightlessly from the walls of the throne room while the Kingslayer opened Father’s throat with a golden sword. - Daenerys I

Notice the wording here: "pleading for mercy ... Rhaegar's heir." Why not something like baby Aegon? It's the sort of wording that seems specific enough to communicate who it means, but it's also true that a person can have more than one heir. For example, if the original heir dies. In which case Rhaegar's heir would then be someone else.

Ned rose and paced the length of the room. “If the queen had a role in this or, gods forbid, the king himself… no, I will not believe that.” Yet even as he said the words, he remembered that chill morning on the barrowlands, and Robert’s talk of sending hired knives after the Targaryen princess. He remembered Rhaegar’s infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry’s audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once. - Eddard IV

Anyway, we know that Sansa was pleading for Lady, her direwolf pup. And we know that Elia was pleading for Rhaegar's heir. I put forth that Lyanna was pleading for Jon Snow, who was both her direwolf pup, figuratively speaking, as well as Rhaegar's (new) heir.

In addition to the bold, I'd like to point out that Ned's thoughts go from "Rhaegar's infant son" to Lyanna pleading. Just sayin'.

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On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, from a strictly political point of view Robert is right. Aerys and his descendants have to go. All of them. Else he and his children will never sit safely on the Iron Throne.

Other than Aerys himself and Rhaegar, why? Why cannot Elia and her children be held hostage? If they make it into exile, as Dany and Viserys did, can't they be allowed to live out their lives unmolested as long as they don't return claiming the throne? We have examples of the Blackfyre pretenders living their lives in such a way and they were much more of a threat than Viserys and Dany ever were before the hatching of three dragons. Yet Robert has to have Jon Arryn to tell him he can't get his assassins close enough to kill two children.

On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

To qualify this as a madness isn't really accurate. Especially not if all of Robert's councilmen actually share this sentiment without being mad about it. Not to mention the fact that Robert did not, in fact, command the murder of the Targaryen women and children prior to the Sack. If he did then Ned should have been aghast and angry about this before the Sack and not only thereafter.

Again, this isn't my characterization to call Robert's hatred of all things Targaryen a "madness." It's Ned's. And Ned gives us the incident when this madness almost caused a irrevocable split between the two friends. He explicitly tells us of the day of Robert's coronation when Tywin Lannister lays the bodies of Elia and her children before Robert as a tribute. A tribute that Robert accepts, saying he sees no "babes" only "dragonspawn." In so doing, Ned tells us the minimum time in which he dates Robert's madness. That does not say he could not have noticed it earlier.

As to the small council, we know that Jon Arryn did not support Robert's wish to assassinate Viserys and Daenerys, and we know Ser Barristan also objects alongside Ned when the subject is debated there. So, that part of your point just isn't accurate. More importantly, the fact that many of the members of the small council go along with Robert, doesn't say anything about the sanity of the plan. It only shows they see it to their political advantage to agree with Robert.

Prior to the sack, Robert's focus appears to have been killing Rhaegar. It's Rhaegar who stole away his Lyanna, and dishonored him. It's Rhaegar he seeks out in personal combat at the Trident, and it's Rhaegar he kills there. And it's Rhaegar we find out whom he dreams of killing every night. The madness Ned sees doesn't have to be announced to exist. Nor does Robert have sole command over the rebellion, at least not until he is proclaimed the rebel's new candidate for the throne. Something that we are told happens shortly before the Trident. Up to that point Robert is just one of the High Lords rebelling against Aerys, not their king or king to be. He is free to have his hatreds that drive him to fight alongside the other rebels, and he can dream of killing Rhaegar all he wants with no one to tell him his obsession is wrong.

Does this tell us Ned knew a madness had overtaken his friend before the Trident? No, it doesn't. But the clues are there that it existed, or at least had its origins all the way back to Harrenhal.

On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

And again - Robert's hatred of Rhaegar and the Targaryens had dissolved at once had he actually saved Lyanna and gotten what he wanted in the end. Thus the idea that this was always there just doesn't make any sense.

Catelyn might right now like relish the thought of slaying Tommen with her own and smearing parts of his brain in Cersei's hair - but that doesn't mean she had thoughts like this prior to the Red Wedding and her resurrection.

What Robert might have done if he got Lyanna back, is certainly open for debate, but this never happened. As such, speculation about hypotheticals has nothing to do with whether or not Robert's madness existed, as Ned says it does. Catelyn's case is her own and has nothing at all to do with what Robert does or feels.

On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

Why should Ned be surprised? It is not that he saw Robert for the last time back in 283 AC. And he certainly would have known about Stannis' attempt to capture Viserys and Dany and so on.

No, there is no such evidence to be had. Because we lack information both on Robert's deeds and utterances back in those days. Nor have we any clear picture of Ned's state of mind back then. He certainly had more reason to hate the Targaryens in general considering what Rhaegar might have done to his sister and what Aerys definitely did to his brother and father.

The fact Ned is not surprised tells us he has viewed this madness prior to the conversation I quoted. This fact is immediately followed by Ned's recollection of the time Robert's madness almost caused a permanent split between the two men. We are told only the death of Lyanna bring them back together. When we are trying to date the origins of Robert's obsession these are critical facts.The "deeds and utterances" are there in Ned's memories as he thinks on the past. So, there clearly are examples that support Ned's view of his friend's madness.

Now, you raise an important point here. What was Ned's own views towards the Targaryens, Rhaegar in particular, during the rebellion and prior? We have clues, and we can make educated guesses, but we don't know for sure. The fact Ned doesn't seem to have a hatred of Rhaegar fifteen years on, while Robert clearly does, tells us the feelings are not the same. We would expect that if Ned is naming Robert's feelings "madness."

My own guess is that Ned hated and wanted Aerys dead for what he did to his father and brother. I also think it likely Ned shared Brandon's and Rickard's view that Lyanna needed do as her father had arranged and marry Robert. If Lyanna really runs away with Rhaegar willingly, then he even may have some resentments towards her. Which doesn't mean he wanted her dead or even unhappy. I think the ever dutiful Ned would likely see Lyanna's actions as a rebellion against family duty and he wouldn't support it. Certainly not after Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon. This all comes crashing down in two scenes. The one we have been discussing at the coronation with Robert condoning the killing of children, and in the scene in which Ned promises his sister something as she lays dying. In the latter, there is a reason Lyanna fears her brother's response, and I think it shows she knows something of his disapproval of her actions.

On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

I'm on board with that. My argument is just that this only extends to legitimate Targaryen children not bastards. And if there was a secret marriage and stuff then there was no legitimate Targaryen child born by Lyanna because secret marriage may remain secret and thus not exist.

Ned and Lyanna both may have feared that Robert would be a threat to Lyanna's legitimate son. And the Kingsguard may have thought Ned himself might be a threat. And perhaps he was, at a point. We have no idea how Ned felt about Rhaegar and Aerys at that time. Was the murder of Elia and the children a wake up call for him? Or did he only soften once he realized that Lyanna had been in love with Rhaegar and might bear his child? We don't know that yet. The fact that Ned was a nice guy in 298 AC doesn't mean he was as nice back in 282-83 AC.

Again, I think you are trying to make a logical argument for reasons behind Robert's feelings and actions which Ned names "madness." Yes, a legitimate heir is more of a threat to Robert's hold onto the throne than a bastard child. But in Ned's view condoning the killing of Elia and her children was madness and against everything they fought for. He doesn't see Robert's words and actions as a cold calculation of the political needs of the moment, but as an obsessive hatred in his friend that allows him to condone horrible murders. The evidence we have in the conversations between the two men shows Ned to be right.

As such, it doesn't matter to Robert if Jon is Rhaegar's legitimate heir or not. The fact he is Rhaegar's son, born of what he calls "rape" of his betrothed, is all Robert would need to want Jon murdered. Or so, Ned thinks based on the words and deeds we witness through his eyes. And not only that, but Ned worries, legitimately I would say, about the lives of his family if it is discovered he has hidden Rhaegar's son, legitimate or not, all these years from Robert's knowledge. That's the meaning I think of Ned's thought concerning how some secrets are too dangerous to be shared.

I've dealt with the rest above.

On July 8, 2016 at 10:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

That could very well be. But we'll have to wait and see what Ned did know about the people in the tower at that point. The fact that he only took six companions with him might suggests that he already knew what he would find there and took precautions to prevent a spreading of the tale. And if he knew/suspected what was going on then he may have made his intentions clear. Or not, and that's what haunts him later. Could very well be.

We agree here.

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Has it been revealed ( Does it even matter ? ) how Ned found out where Lyanna was being kept?? Also during Roberts battle in Summerhall, did he know Lyanna was so close by?

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3 hours ago, Sir Matthis Light said:

Has it been revealed ( Does it even matter ? ) how Ned found out where Lyanna was being kept?? Also during Roberts battle in Summerhall, did he know Lyanna was so close by?

Ashara Dayne told Ned about Lyanna's location, thus getting her big brother killed (Artur)... She threw herself off the sea because of guilt. That's what I assume.

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9 hours ago, Sir Matthis Light said:

Has it been revealed ( Does it even matter ? ) how Ned found out where Lyanna was being kept?? Also during Roberts battle in Summerhall, did he know Lyanna was so close by?

No, it hasn't been revealed how Ned finds out the location of Lyanna. It has been debated in these pages for many years, but there is, as of yet, nothing in the books or from Martin that tells us this information. Many theories, from the Lady Ashara Dayne, to Varys, or just some random traveller who somehow stumbled on the secret. Take your pick and tell us why you think so.

As to Robert knowing as early as Summerhall, my own opinion is that is very unlikely. I think if Robert knew of Lyanna's location it would have been the next objective in his war. Not something to leave to Ned to deal with after all other major battles are won. Just my thoughts

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2 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

No, it hasn't been revealed how Ned finds out the location of Lyanna. It has been debated in these pages for many years, but there is, as of yet, nothing in the books or from Martin that tells us this information. Many theories, from the Lady Ashara Dayne, to Varys, or just some random traveller who somehow stumbled on the secret. Take your pick and tell us why you think so.

As to Robert knowing as early as Summerhall, my own opinion is that is very unlikely. I think if Robert knew of Lyanna's location it would have been the next objective in his war. Not something to leave to Ned to deal with after all other major battles are won. Just my thoughts

Ah, then I guess it really doesn't matter as Ned did find out, and the information from where ever he got it from, lead to him finding a dead sister.

I guess that makes sense als, as Robert did "Love" Lyanna and wanted her to be his bride, so he probably would've headed to the ToJ if he she was there with his hated enemy, Rhaegar. I just find it so strange that he was literally right next door to her and had no knowledge of it, but then again he did have to fight three battles in three days lol.

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People keep talking about who the Prince to come is but forget about something very important. Daenerys Targaryen is barren. Even if she ends on the Iron Throne in the series and in the books the Targaryen Dynasty will go on through John Dragon. Even if he dies, if he makes any Lady pregnant (through marriage), his offspring shall rule the Seven Kingdoms.

She is barren and therefore cannot be the Targaryen restorer; her seed shall never rule the Seven Kingdoms. Who cares if she is or not the prince promised. As long as she stays barren it doesn`t matter. Hundreds of years after the second Long Night the Targaryan line will go on through John. It starts from Aegon (I) the Conqueror passing  trough Aegon (V) the Unlikely, Aerys II the Mad, Prince Rhaegar and John Dragon and his offspring. The might call him the Promised Prince (if it is not Daenerys), Dragon because his seed restored the Targaryen line, Bastard, Savior and so on.

Nothing needs to change for the above to happen. Just what was and is, continues to be, to wit Daenerys unfruitfulness.

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38 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

People keep talking about who the Prince to come is but forget about something very important. Daenerys Targaryen is barren. Even if she ends on the Iron Throne in the series and in the books the Targaryen Dynasty will go on through John Dragon. Even if he dies, if he makes any Lady pregnant (through marriage), his offspring shall rule the Seven Kingdoms.

She is barren and therefore cannot be the Targaryen restorer; her seed shall never rule the Seven Kingdoms. Who cares if she is or not the prince promised. As long as she stays barren it doesn`t matter. Hundreds of years after the second Long Night the Targaryan line will go on through John. It starts from Aegon (I) the Conqueror passing  trough Aegon (V) the Unlikely, Aerys II the Mad, Prince Rhaegar and John Dragon and his offspring. The might call him the Promised Prince (if it is not Daenerys), Dragon because his seed restored the Targaryen line, Bastard, Savior and so on.

Nothing needs to change for the above to happen. Just what was and is, continues to be, to wit Daenerys unfruitfulness.

in the last book she already had a suspicious miscarriage. she will likely have a baby, for Jon I guess. 

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17 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

in the last book she already had a suspicious miscarriage. she will likely have a baby, for Jon I guess. 

You mean when  she eats the berries, then starts cramping? Unfortunately you might be right. Also it might be her monthly flow returning to her. Oh my... Let’s hope for the worst after the Top Sin she did.

 

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12 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

in the last book she already had a suspicious miscarriage. she will likely have a baby, for Jon I guess. 

Next husband is expected to be Greyjoy. Euron would be happy to have a child from her for the next blood ritual.

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On 9.7.2016 at 5:04 PM, SFDanny said:

Other than Aerys himself and Rhaegar, why? Why cannot Elia and her children be held hostage? If they make it into exile, as Dany and Viserys did, can't they be allowed to live out their lives unmolested as long as they don't return claiming the throne? We have examples of the Blackfyre pretenders living their lives in such a way and they were much more of a threat than Viserys and Dany ever were before the hatching of three dragons. Yet Robert has to have Jon Arryn to tell him he can't get his assassins close enough to kill two children.

I think they had to go because Robert was clearly a usurper. He would never sit secure on his throne - and neither would his children - while Aerys' descendants were still alive. Even Aemon had to go to the Wall to prevent to become a figurehead for Egg's enemies - and Aemon had no intention to even claim the throne. And that was a Great Council decision, something, most likely, a lot less controversial than Robert's violent ascension of the Iron Throne over the dead body of the previous king and his eldest son.

It would have been the nicer way to keep the children alive but wherever the were they could easily have been used as figureheads against Robert just as the Blacks continued to oppose Aegon II in the name of Aegon III, the very boy Aegon II kept as his hostage. Even if the boy had been made a novice and eventually a septon there would have been quite a few people backing his claim - or hoping to back his claim anyway.

The Blackfyre pretenders were different, I think, because they were unsuccessful rebels, not the rightful royal dynasty that had been driven into exile. There is a huge difference there. The Targaryens will always have (quite visibly) the right on their side.

While I still don't think Robert had it in him to actually do or command such a deed there would have been ways around that (e.g. how the usurping English kings got rid of their predecessors and their kin - Edward II, Richard II, Henry VI, Edward V). Tywin and others (hello there, Stannis!) would have pushed Robert in the right direction so Aegon would have been treated like the Princes in the Tower or perhaps like Henry VII treated the poor son of George of Clarence.

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Again, this isn't my characterization to call Robert's hatred of all things Targaryen a "madness." It's Ned's. And Ned gives us the incident when this madness almost caused a irrevocable split between the two friends. He explicitly tells us of the day of Robert's coronation when Tywin Lannister lays the bodies of Elia and her children before Robert as a tribute. A tribute that Robert accepts, saying he sees no "babes" only "dragonspawn." In so doing, Ned tells us the minimum time in which he dates Robert's madness. That does not say he could not have noticed it earlier.

But Ned makes that statement years later. How can you say that Ned makes a comment here not including his later knowledge? Neither you nor I can really talk about the series only with AGoT knowledge in mind. We cannot help but make use of all our knowledge of the series.

Back after the Sack Lyanna was still alive so a festering 'Targaryen madness' just isn't very likely. 

And we should also keep in mind that Robert's own dynastic deliberations were already taking effect. Unlike Ned he clearly was aware that 'somebody had to kill Aerys' (Ned must have been aware of that, too, presumably, but it is never mentioned) and might also have realized that somebody should better also kill Rhaegar's children. Whether he was admitting that to himself is another matter.

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As to the small council, we know that Jon Arryn did not support Robert's wish to assassinate Viserys and Daenerys, and we know Ser Barristan also objects alongside Ned when the subject is debated there. So, that part of your point just isn't accurate. More importantly, the fact that many of the members of the small council go along with Robert, doesn't say anything about the sanity of the plan. It only shows they see it to their political advantage to agree with Robert.

Well, Renly, Littlefinger, and Pycelle certainly were completely on board with the murder idea. Varys was lying to arrange the whole thing for his own ends, of course. Apparently the idea prevailed that Viserys and Dany were less of threat impoverished and in exile but once the plans for a Dothraki alliance became more concrete it was a huge mistake for any Baratheon loyalist to not take out the Targaryens at once.

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Prior to the sack, Robert's focus appears to have been killing Rhaegar. It's Rhaegar who stole away his Lyanna, and dishonored him. It's Rhaegar he seeks out in personal combat at the Trident, and it's Rhaegar he kills there. And it's Rhaegar we find out whom he dreams of killing every night.

Yeah, but since way? Do you really think Robert dreamed about that since Harrenhal? Or since the abduction? I think that's a recurring dream that came back when he it became clear that he had lost Lyanna.

I mean, how do you see Robert sleeping with Cersei for the first time and calling her 'Lyanna'? I think that shows a true devotion to his late betrothed.

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The madness Ned sees doesn't have to be announced to exist. Nor does Robert have sole command over the rebellion, at least not until he is proclaimed the rebel's new candidate for the throne. Something that we are told happens shortly before the Trident. Up to that point Robert is just one of the High Lords rebelling against Aerys, not their king or king to be. He is free to have his hatreds that drive him to fight alongside the other rebels, and he can dream of killing Rhaegar all he wants with no one to tell him his obsession is wrong.

Sure he can, but we have no reason to believe that he did dream about that at this time. He doesn't give us a date since when he had such dreams - or whether he had them at all or was not just using hyperbole. 

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Does this tell us Ned knew a madness had overtaken his friend before the Trident? No, it doesn't. But the clues are there that it existed, or at least had its origins all the way back to Harrenhal.

There are clues that Robert began to mistrust Rhaegar and perhaps even grew jealous, but more we don't know yet. Perhaps he was even suspecting something like a romance as early as Harrenhal? If so, then he might have known more than we think. On the other hand - why the hell did he then believe the rape crap? But then, hm, Richard Lonmouth supposedly drank with Robert a lot. He might have let something slip about Rhaegar's interest in Lyanna. Robert might have remembered something like that.

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What Robert might have done if he got Lyanna back, is certainly open for debate, but this never happened. As such, speculation about hypotheticals has nothing to do with whether or not Robert's madness existed, as Ned says it does. Catelyn's case is her own and has nothing at all to do with what Robert does or feels.

I'm not saying the madness didn't exist (or rather that Ned didn't believe it existed). All I'm saying is that we cannot date the point at which Ned thought the Targaryens are a madness in Robert's mind. Could be that it was his behavior at the Sack. Could be that it only began later.

My point is that Ned didn't really need to believe in this madness thing to believe that Lyanna's trueborn son by Rhaegar might be in danger.

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Now, you raise an important point here. What was Ned's own views towards the Targaryens, Rhaegar in particular, during the rebellion and prior? We have clues, and we can make educated guesses, but we don't know for sure. The fact Ned doesn't seem to have a hatred of Rhaegar fifteen years on, while Robert clearly does, tells us the feelings are not the same. We would expect that if Ned is naming Robert's feelings "madness."

My own guess is that Ned hated and wanted Aerys dead for what he did to his father and brother. I also think it likely Ned shared Brandon's and Rickard's view that Lyanna needed do as her father had arranged and marry Robert. If Lyanna really runs away with Rhaegar willingly, then he even may have some resentments towards her. Which doesn't mean he wanted her dead or even unhappy. I think the ever dutiful Ned would likely see Lyanna's actions as a rebellion against family duty and he wouldn't support it. Certainly not after Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon. This all comes crashing down in two scenes. The one we have been discussing at the coronation with Robert condoning the killing of children, and in the scene in which Ned promises his sister something as she lays dying. In the latter, there is a reason Lyanna fears her brother's response, and I think it shows she knows something of his disapproval of her actions.

I agree here. But the fact is we don't have clear picture yet what Ned's feelings had been in 283 AC, nor do we know how much they changed since then. And I very much think that he has now at least Rhaegar-positive thoughts to a degree and is quite clearly no ill feelings towards the Targaryens in exile.

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Again, I think you are trying to make a logical argument for reasons behind Robert's feelings and actions which Ned names "madness." Yes, a legitimate heir is more of a threat to Robert's hold onto the throne than a bastard child. But in Ned's view condoning the killing of Elia and her children was madness and against everything they fought for. He doesn't see Robert's words and actions as a cold calculation of the political needs of the moment, but as an obsessive hatred in his friend that allows him to condone horrible murders. The evidence we have in the conversations between the two men shows Ned to be right.

I'd raise again the point of the mentioning of Lyanna's name during the sex with Cersei at this point. This was months later and suggests that Robert was still very much desiring to have sex with a dead woman who might have loved Rhaegar more than she loved him. I have great difficulties imagining that Robert would have wanted to see the son of such a woman dead. Rhaegar's trueborn son, a claimant to the Iron Throne most certainly, but not an innocent who was not possibly a threat to him.

If Robert had seen Lyanna as damaged goods after the Rhaegar affair he would have gotten over her as quickly as he got about all his whores and other lovers.

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As such, it doesn't matter to Robert if Jon is Rhaegar's legitimate heir or not. The fact he is Rhaegar's son, born of what he calls "rape" of his betrothed, is all Robert would need to want Jon murdered. Or so, Ned thinks based on the words and deeds we witness through his eyes. And not only that, but Ned worries, legitimately I would say, about the lives of his family if it is discovered he has hidden Rhaegar's son, legitimate or not, all these years from Robert's knowledge. That's the meaning I think of Ned's thought concerning how some secrets are too dangerous to be shared.

Well, I think that extends only to Rhaegar actually being married to Lyanna. I doubt that Lyanna or Ned would have feared for her child if it had been a bastard.

23 hours ago, SFDanny said:

No, it hasn't been revealed how Ned finds out the location of Lyanna. It has been debated in these pages for many years, but there is, as of yet, nothing in the books or from Martin that tells us this information. Many theories, from the Lady Ashara Dayne, to Varys, or just some random traveller who somehow stumbled on the secret. Take your pick and tell us why you think so.

The best idea is either somebody at court or somebody in Rhaegar's host at the Trident (although court is more likely because Ned apparently didn't spend much time at the Trident after the victory and had thus less time to talk to many people).

But the idea that it was Ethan Glover is completely crackpot.

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As to Robert knowing as early as Summerhall, my own opinion is that is very unlikely. I think if Robert knew of Lyanna's location it would have been the next objective in his war. Not something to leave to Ned to deal with after all other major battles are won. Just my thoughts

I doubt that Rhaegar and Lyanna were already at the tower at this early time during the war. The idea that they spent most of their time is rather problematic. If Rhaegar and Lyanna were crossing the Reach early on why the hell did Rhaegar not take charge of the Tyrell army to put Robert down? He would have been reasonably close and in an ideal position to take command. That is, unless he had to hide from his own father.

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3 hours ago, Roza Ahai said:

Next husband is expected to be Greyjoy. Euron would be happy to have a child from her for the next blood ritual.

this will not contradict with that jon will become her fourth husband (and have a child as well). 

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I think lyanna knows that no matter what she wants Ned to do, Ned will do it at any cost. her fear was only about Robert. jon is the product of Rhaegar "raping" his beloved fiancee. no matter jon is bastard or not, he is 100% doomed if robert gets him. it is not that she feared Ned would say no to her.

Ned would never say no to Lyanna. we never saw Ned had any resentment over Lyanna or rhaegar, even after he lost his father, brother and friends, stained himself and hurt his wife. Lyanna is more important than all of these things in his mind. 

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Lyanna was dying and knew she would not be around to protect her child.  Of course she would be afraid for him, no matter whether he is legitimate or a bastard.  She's not going to lie on her deathbed reassuring herself by going back through history ticking off the women who gave birth to bastards without them being murdered.  She knows Rhaegar's other family were brutally killed; of course she's going to fear for her baby's future.  She has no reason not to fear Robert's wrath, or at least not to take a chance on it.  Sure Robert might mellow over time, but Lyanna knows she will not be there if and when that happens and can't guarantee anything so there's no point even risking Robert finding out.

I think people are underestimating a dying mother, whose entire focus would always be on keeping her newborn child as safe as possible.  

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd raise again the point of the mentioning of Lyanna's name during the sex with Cersei at this point. This was months later and suggests that Robert was still very much desiring to have sex with a dead woman who might have loved Rhaegar more than she loved him. I have great difficulties imagining that Robert would have wanted to see the son of such a woman dead. Rhaegar's trueborn son, a claimant to the Iron Throne most certainly, but not an innocent who was not possibly a threat to him.

Perhaps he wouldn't have wanted the child dead, but would Ned and/or Lyanna have ever been willing to take that risk?

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20 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Perhaps he wouldn't have wanted the child dead, but would Ned and/or Lyanna have ever been willing to take that risk?

Sure, I'm with you all on that one. As long as Jon is actually Lyanna and Rhaegar's trueborn son. I doubt that Ned or even Lyanna would have thought that a bastard was truly in danger.

In fact, if you think about it a bastard could easily have been sent off to be raised far away from Winterfell with somebody else entirely.

I'm pretty sure Jon only got that special treatment because he was Lyanna's trueborn son and not actually a bastard. I doubt that the average Stark bastard had such an exalted position in the Stark household. Perhaps the average Stark bastard who was noble on both sides or the child of a mistress of the Lord of Winterfell.

Catelyn notes that Ned's treatment of Jon is very uncommon.

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On 7/10/2016 at 10:44 AM, Sir Matthis Light said:

Ah, then I guess it really doesn't matter as Ned did find out, and the information from where ever he got it from, lead to him finding a dead sister.

I guess that makes sense als, as Robert did "Love" Lyanna and wanted her to be his bride, so he probably would've headed to the ToJ if he she was there with his hated enemy, Rhaegar. I just find it so strange that he was literally right next door to her and had no knowledge of it, but then again he did have to fight three battles in three days lol.

Well, who's to say that Lyanna was there when Robert was at Summerhall? We have no idea where Rhaegar and Lyanna were after the kidnapping. For all we know, they could have been across the narrow sea or above the well (obviously very unlikely, just making a point.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think they had to go because Robert was clearly a usurper. He would never sit secure on his throne - and neither would his children - while Aerys' descendants were still alive. Even Aemon had to go to the Wall to prevent to become a figurehead for Egg's enemies - and Aemon had no intention to even claim the throne. And that was a Great Council decision, something, most likely, a lot less controversial than Robert's violent ascension of the Iron Throne over the dead body of the previous king and his eldest son.

It would have been the nicer way to keep the children alive but wherever the were they could easily have been used as figureheads against Robert just as the Blacks continued to oppose Aegon II in the name of Aegon III, the very boy Aegon II kept as his hostage. Even if the boy had been made a novice and eventually a septon there would have been quite a few people backing his claim - or hoping to back his claim anyway.

The Blackfyre pretenders were different, I think, because they were unsuccessful rebels, not the rightful royal dynasty that had been driven into exile. There is a huge difference there. The Targaryens will always have (quite visibly) the right on their side.

While I still don't think Robert had it in him to actually do or command such a deed there would have been ways around that (e.g. how the usurping English kings got rid of their predecessors and their kin - Edward II, Richard II, Henry VI, Edward V). Tywin and others (hello there, Stannis!) would have pushed Robert in the right direction so Aegon would have been treated like the Princes in the Tower or perhaps like Henry VII treated the poor son of George of Clarence.

But Ned makes that statement years later. How can you say that Ned makes a comment here not including his later knowledge? Neither you nor I can really talk about the series only with AGoT knowledge in mind. We cannot help but make use of all our knowledge of the series.

Back after the Sack Lyanna was still alive so a festering 'Targaryen madness' just isn't very likely. 

And we should also keep in mind that Robert's own dynastic deliberations were already taking effect. Unlike Ned he clearly was aware that 'somebody had to kill Aerys' (Ned must have been aware of that, too, presumably, but it is never mentioned) and might also have realized that somebody should better also kill Rhaegar's children. Whether he was admitting that to himself is another matter.

Well, Renly, Littlefinger, and Pycelle certainly were completely on board with the murder idea. Varys was lying to arrange the whole thing for his own ends, of course. Apparently the idea prevailed that Viserys and Dany were less of threat impoverished and in exile but once the plans for a Dothraki alliance became more concrete it was a huge mistake for any Baratheon loyalist to not take out the Targaryens at once.

Yeah, but since way? Do you really think Robert dreamed about that since Harrenhal? Or since the abduction? I think that's a recurring dream that came back when he it became clear that he had lost Lyanna.

I mean, how do you see Robert sleeping with Cersei for the first time and calling her 'Lyanna'? I think that shows a true devotion to his late betrothed.

Sure he can, but we have no reason to believe that he did dream about that at this time. He doesn't give us a date since when he had such dreams - or whether he had them at all or was not just using hyperbole. 

There are clues that Robert began to mistrust Rhaegar and perhaps even grew jealous, but more we don't know yet. Perhaps he was even suspecting something like a romance as early as Harrenhal? If so, then he might have known more than we think. On the other hand - why the hell did he then believe the rape crap? But then, hm, Richard Lonmouth supposedly drank with Robert a lot. He might have let something slip about Rhaegar's interest in Lyanna. Robert might have remembered something like that.

I'm not saying the madness didn't exist (or rather that Ned didn't believe it existed). All I'm saying is that we cannot date the point at which Ned thought the Targaryens are a madness in Robert's mind. Could be that it was his behavior at the Sack. Could be that it only began later.

My point is that Ned didn't really need to believe in this madness thing to believe that Lyanna's trueborn son by Rhaegar might be in danger.

I agree here. But the fact is we don't have clear picture yet what Ned's feelings had been in 283 AC, nor do we know how much they changed since then. And I very much think that he has now at least Rhaegar-positive thoughts to a degree and is quite clearly no ill feelings towards the Targaryens in exile.

I'd raise again the point of the mentioning of Lyanna's name during the sex with Cersei at this point. This was months later and suggests that Robert was still very much desiring to have sex with a dead woman who might have loved Rhaegar more than she loved him. I have great difficulties imagining that Robert would have wanted to see the son of such a woman dead. Rhaegar's trueborn son, a claimant to the Iron Throne most certainly, but not an innocent who was not possibly a threat to him.

If Robert had seen Lyanna as damaged goods after the Rhaegar affair he would have gotten over her as quickly as he got about all his whores and other lovers.

Well, I think that extends only to Rhaegar actually being married to Lyanna. I doubt that Lyanna or Ned would have feared for her child if it had been a bastard.

The best idea is either somebody at court or somebody in Rhaegar's host at the Trident (although court is more likely because Ned apparently didn't spend much time at the Trident after the victory and had thus less time to talk to many people).

But the idea that it was Ethan Glover is completely crackpot.

I doubt that Rhaegar and Lyanna were already at the tower at this early time during the war. The idea that they spent most of their time is rather problematic. If Rhaegar and Lyanna were crossing the Reach early on why the hell did Rhaegar not take charge of the Tyrell army to put Robert down? He would have been reasonably close and in an ideal position to take command. That is, unless he had to hide from his own father.

Do we know exactly how much time occurred between the battle on the Trident, the incidents in KL, and Ned reaching the ToJ?

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