US Elections - From Russia with Love

[TerraPrime]

9 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Holy shit.  Ann Coulter.

She compares the Mothers of the Movement to ISIS terrorists in a column entitled "When Do the Mothers of ISIS Speak?" and says the only thing noteworthy Michael Brown's mother's done in life is raise a hoodlum, and then in a tweet dismisses Khizr Khan as "an angry Muslim with a thick accent like Fareed Zacaria".

Way to go, put a fine face on modern Republicans!

 

Nothing she's saying is new or out of line compared to what the GOP supporters are saying.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, TerraPrime said:

Nothing she's saying is new or out of line compared to what the GOP supporters are saying.

I'm not sure that's fair. What Coulter said goes way beyond what your traditional Republican would say. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm not sure that's fair. What Coulter said goes way beyond what your traditional Republican would say. 

 Yeah I'm not sure how many folks could watch Mr. Khan's speech last night and be left with "just another angry Muslim". Seems to me his speech hit both sides of the aisle right in the heart. 

[Altherion]

2 hours ago, NestorMakhnosLovechild said:

I am honestly perplexed at how you've come to the conclusion that Trump's "presentation" of himself as a buffoon is somehow divorced from his actual personality, which is to say, that it's far, far more likely that he's actually just a buffoon. 

Your entire premise that he's not actually a buffoon appears to be based on the incredibly tenuous assumption that if he weren't a buffoon, somehow people wouldn't invest money into his projects. There seems to me to be no actual evidence being offered in support of your premise - that people are somehow unable or unwilling to invest money foolishly and/or that it's always foolish to invest your money with a buffoon - because neither seem to me to be intuitively correct, and there seems like plenty of empirical evidence to suggest both that large numbers of people invest their money foolishly, and that sometimes it pays off to invest your money with a buffoon, because sometimes even buffoons make money (see, for example, the cast of the Jersey Shore).

People investing money in his projects is evidence that there are no obvious psychological problems. The evidence for him not being a buffoon is that he won the Republican primary and is currently competitive in the general election. There are only two realistic possibilities here: either our political system has deteriorated to the point where a genuine buffoon can get himself that close to the highest executive office in the country or Trump is not really the buffoon he appears to be (I'm ignoring ideas like the puppet-master theory wherein Trump really is a buffoon, but there's somebody else pulling his strings). I don't think the US political system is quite that far gone, so I'm tentatively leaning toward the idea that he's smarter than he appears to be.

Quote

If you're interested in a perspective on Trump from someone outside of the mainstream, you might give Sam Harris a listen. Harris is a neuroscientist who has gotten himself into lots of trouble with other liberals (with whom he largely identifies) for his positions on profiling, torture, and radical Islam. He talks about the idea that Trump might be "faking" his public stupidity, but ultimately rejects it because of the remarkable consistency of Trump's behavior over time, and the difficulty of faking the level of ignorance that Trump has shown. I doubt it will convince you, but you haven't presented anything to suggest that your position on this issue is based on anything other than magical thinking.

Thanks, I will listen once I have the time for it.

[Swordfish]

5 minutes ago, Altherion said:

People investing money in his projects is evidence that there are no obvious psychological problems. The evidence for him not being a buffoon is that he won the Republican primary and is currently competitive in the general election. There are only two realistic possibilities here: either our political system has deteriorated to the point where a genuine buffoon can get himself that close to the highest executive office in the country or Trump is not really the buffoon he appears to be (I'm ignoring ideas like the puppet-master theory wherein Trump really is a buffoon, but there's somebody else pulling his strings). I don't think the US political system is quite that far gone, so I'm tentatively leaning toward the idea that he's smarter than he appears to be.

Thanks, I will listen once I have the time for it.

Didn't Trump basically lay out this 'play the buffoon' approach in one of his books? 

I haven't read any of them, but this is what someone I know was telling me a few months ago......

 

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, TerraPrime said:

Nothing she's saying is new or out of line compared to what the GOP supporters are saying.

I know, I know, having watched almost all the RNC.

I think the first night there was this woman who spoke, the one who was shown making a Nazi salute before dropping down her arm to turn it into a wave, who talked about her grandparents being Polish immigrants.  She made me ashamed of my heritage.  But frankly speaking, almost every Polish immigrant I know here says they would vote for Trump if they could.  As you know if you have followed events in Europe, the Polish government has refused to take any Muslim refugees and Polish people have a real antipathy, as far as I can see, towards Muslims.  I don't know if it is because of historical antipathy, fighting back the Muslim hordes in the Middle Ages (rescuing Vienna), or because of so many stories about attacks against Christians across the Islamic world, which apparently are regularly reported by the Catholic press and are deeply concerning.

There's a huge Polish population in Illinois, could those votes tip the state to Trump?

[Fragile Bird]

BTW...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/bill-the-balloon-guy?bffbmain&ref=bffbmain&utm_term=.ogEyLxKp0#.qs0RrBDgy

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, Altherion said:

The evidence for him not being a buffoon is that he won the Republican primary and is currently competitive in the general election.

Dubya was also a buffoon, albeit not to the same degree as Trump is, and he won the Republican primary too. Frankly, the main reason why Trump won is because he was willing to be openly racist, xenophobic and misogynistic. That's not to say that all or even most Republicans express those views, but I've always felt that roughly a third of their party did. And surprise surprise, that's the vote share that Trump received in the primary when it was still competitive. As for as the General Election, any Republican nominee would be "competitive", because they're all but guaranteed at least 40% of the vote. And again, that's roughly what Trump is receiving in a majority of the polls I've seen. 

[mormont]

19 minutes ago, Altherion said:

People investing money in his projects is evidence that there are no obvious psychological problems.

It really isn't.

19 minutes ago, Altherion said:

The evidence for him not being a buffoon is that he won the Republican primary and is currently competitive in the general election.

It really isn't.

In both cases, you're reasoning backwards, starting from the conclusion to look for premises that support the evidence. But, it doesn't work. People will invest in projects if they think the project is sound and will make money, and it doesn't matter to them at all if the guy bringing them the opportunity is a narcissistic twit so long as that is true.

As for the primary, it's simple: Trump got rewarded for being a buffoon, so he continued to behave in that way. I can train a dog to do tricks like that. It doesn't mean that the dog has any secret plan behind his behaviour, or even any insight into it.

Trump's not a secretly shrewd man putting on an act. He's a guy with certain genuine tendencies towards racism, vanity, bullying and other unpleasant behaviours who is now indulging those aspects of his character because a section of the Republican electorate has been validating them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

BTW...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/bill-the-balloon-guy?bffbmain&ref=bffbmain&utm_term=.ogEyLxKp0#.qs0RrBDgy

HAHAHA. They were talking about this on NPR this morning. The images do it a lot of justice.

Also, there is  a really funny clip of a portly man getting ready to spike a balloon and then looks over and sees Hillary is right next to him and bails.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/you-probably-missed-this-amazing-moment-after-hillary-clintons-s/

It's the first video. 

[mormont]

Mike Pence doesn't think 'name calling has any place in public life'.

Of course, he's criticising Obama.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mike-pence-politics-no-place-name-calling-n619826

 

[Altherion]

12 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think the first night there was this woman who spoke, the one who was shown making a Nazi salute before dropping down her arm to turn it into a wave, who talked about her grandparents being Polish immigrants.  She made me ashamed of my heritage.  But frankly speaking, almost every Polish immigrant I know here says they would vote for Trump if they could.  As you know if you have followed events in Europe, the Polish government has refused to take any Muslim refugees and Polish people have a real antipathy, as far as I can see, towards Muslims.  I don't know if it is because of historical antipathy, fighting back the Muslim hordes in the Middle Ages (rescuing Vienna), or because of so many stories about attacks against Christians across the Islamic world, which apparently are regularly reported by the Catholic press and are deeply concerning.

There's a huge Polish population in Illinois, could those votes tip the state to Trump?

The antipathy is historical and it is a lot more recent than the Middle Ages. Muslims raped, looted and enslaved across regions of what are now Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, etc. for centuries and ruled what are now other countries outright. It wasn't until Catherine II that the Slavs finally put a stop to it. I don't know how the EU (which is supposedly smarter than Trump) decided to put refugees in Eastern Europe, but it was quite obvious that this wasn't going to go well.

That said, the Democrats have way too much of an edge in Illinois for Trump to have any chance there.

[S John]

2 minutes ago, mormont said:

Mike Pence doesn't think 'name calling has any place in public life'.

Of course, he's criticising Obama.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mike-pence-politics-no-place-name-calling-n619826

 

You've gotta be shitting me.   

Seriously, this is making my head hurt and I need a drink.  

[IheartIheartTesla]

33 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There's a huge Polish population in Illinois, could those votes tip the state to Trump?

Illinois is a solidly blue state. Even at Peak Trump, it stayed blue.

I doubt Polish immigrants in the US as a whole would go for Trump or even mirror your acquaintance's opinions of him. I also doubt they are a big enough bloc as first generation immigrants (second generation ones tend towards mimicing the rest of America). 

[Boris the Blade]

41 minutes ago, Altherion said:

People investing money in his projects is evidence that there are no obvious psychological problems. The evidence for him not being a buffoon is that he won the Republican primary and is currently competitive in the general election. There are only two realistic possibilities here: either our political system has deteriorated to the point where a genuine buffoon can get himself that close to the highest executive office in the country or Trump is not really the buffoon he appears to be (I'm ignoring ideas like the puppet-master theory wherein Trump really is a buffoon, but there's somebody else pulling his strings). I don't think the US political system is quite that far gone, so I'm tentatively leaning toward the idea that he's smarter than he appears to be.

Thanks, I will listen once I have the time for it.

 

No that is not evidence of him not being a buffoon, that's just evidence of how low the standards are for that party and how ignorant their demographic is and just how bigoted the US is.  You're reall you naive.

[Boris the Blade]

7 minutes ago, mormont said:

Mike Pence doesn't think 'name calling has any place in public life'.

Of course, he's criticising Obama.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mike-pence-politics-no-place-name-calling-n619826

 

The same mike pence that calls people that get abortion murderers and that is the runningmate of a hypersensitive man baby that insults everyone that criticizes him? 

[maarsen]

15 minutes ago, Harakiri said:

 

No that is not evidence of him not being a buffoon, that's just evidence of how low the standards are for that party and how ignorant their demographic is and just how bigoted the US is.  You're reall you naive.

On a personal note I have had managers who exhibited the same personal characteristics  as Trump. Lying, ignorance, buffoonery,  and gross incompetence.  Fortunately they had bosses that would come down,  scream at them telling not to be so fucking stupid,  what the fucking were you thinking, and such. Trump would not have that for at least 4 years.  

[Swordfish]

50 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

BTW...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/bill-the-balloon-guy?bffbmain&ref=bffbmain&utm_term=.ogEyLxKp0#.qs0RrBDgy

 

That balloon stuff was some of the hokiest, fakest staged humanizing act I've seen in a long time.  i was embarrased for everyone on that stage.

 

33 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

HAHAHA. They were talking about this on NPR this morning. The images do it a lot of justice.

Also, there is  a really funny clip of a portly man getting ready to spike a balloon and then looks over and sees Hillary is right next to him and bails.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/you-probably-missed-this-amazing-moment-after-hillary-clintons-s/

It's the first video. 

Why does it have to be a 'portly' man?  Why can't it just be a man?

This kind of sizeism just serves to tarnish a spectacular display of unity like ridiculous balloon slapping.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

Why does it have to be a 'portly' man?  Why can't it just be a man?

This kind of sizeism just serves to tarnish a spectacular display of unity like ridiculous balloon slapping.

Portly was about as nice as I could make it. And it's always funnier when it happens to a larger guy. Everyone laughs a little harder when it's a big guy that slips and falls. 

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Swordfish said:

Didn't Trump basically lay out this 'play the buffoon' approach in one of his books? 

I haven't read any of them, but this is what someone I know was telling me a few months ago......

I have not read his books, but there was an interview from the 1980s wherein he is asked what the point of all of the yachts and the like is and admits that it's an act.

52 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Dubya was also a buffoon, albeit not to the same degree as Trump is, and he won the Republican primary too.

G.W. Bush was the candidate of the Republican establishment and it was openly advertised that he would rely on establishment figures such as Cheney and Rumsfeld. Trump appears to be on his own.

48 minutes ago, mormont said:

As for the primary, it's simple: Trump got rewarded for being a buffoon, so he continued to behave in that way. I can train a dog to do tricks like that. It doesn't mean that the dog has any secret plan behind his behaviour, or even any insight into it.

Trump's not a secretly shrewd man putting on an act. He's a guy with certain genuine tendencies towards racism, vanity, bullying and other unpleasant behaviours who is now indulging those aspects of his character because a section of the Republican electorate has been validating them.

I think you greatly underestimate how difficult it is to win the nomination of one of the two major parties -- especially when one starts with no support from the establishment, no political experience and no serious money from major donors. I'm not reasoning backwards, I'm merely looking at an accomplishment and thinking that a buffoon is not likely to accomplish it.

Of course, it could be that you are right in which case we are even more screwed than if Trump is acting. There are more and more of the people you speak of, they have a whole lot of guns and they're not getting any less angry.