Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

It's the prevalence of broken down watchtowers in general and this comment in Wiki:

The Dornish mountains also contain the ruins of the Tower of Joy. So there is actually a reference describing the place as a ruin.

I'm wary of the Wiki and the App at the best of timers, and especially in this case because the Tower of Joy is a piece of fan-fiction. The only textual reference to the name is Lord Eddard's recollection that "it was said Rhaegar had named it the tower of joy" [no capitals] and that in itself raises a couple of problems.

First there was no Tower of Joy. There was a tower to be sure but it was either nameless or it originally bore a now forgotten name bestowed by its builder. 

Second, if "it was said" Rhaegar named it the tower of joy, when did he do so and who told Lord Eddard? This isn't as straightforward as it sounds. Only two rode away from the place so who talked? If one of those present when the fight took place [inside or out] was long enough a-dying to tell Eddard surely he or she would have been identified.

Instead "it was said" is an expression of common knowledge or at least common belief. That in turn suggests "it was said" before the magnificent seven tooled up, and that in turn implies that if Rhaegar was proclaiming the joys of spring and Lyanna Stark, then the world and his wife knew what was going on and that there was no mystery - or, and more likely Rhaegar coined the phrase on that earlier occasion, bringing Elia from Dorne.

[LynnS]

14 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I'm wary of the Wiki and the App at the best of timers, and especially in this case because the Tower of Joy is a piece of fan-fiction. The only textual reference to the name is Lord Eddard's recollection that "it was said Rhaegar had named it the tower of joy" [no capitals] and that in itself raises a couple of problems.

 

We're back to canon vs semi-canon.  The wiki entry points to the Lands of Ice and Fire and the cartographer claims that these maps are canon according to GRRM's sketches. The maps appear to be copyright GRRM.  Can we give the maps a little more weight?

[Ygrain]

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Second, if "it was said" Rhaegar named it the tower of joy, when did he do so and who told Lord Eddard? This isn't as straightforward as it sounds. Only two rode away from the place so who talked? If one of those present when the fight took place [inside or out] was long enough a-dying to tell Eddard surely he or she would have been identified.

Oh, come on, this is cheap. Only two out of the seven against three combatants, and only two men as GRRM specified when asked, but that doesn't exclude any number of female staff inside the tower and not participating in the fight.

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Instead "it was said" is an expression of common knowledge or at least common belief.

It might, and if not entirely "common", some people certainly knew.

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

That in turn suggests "it was said" before the magnificent seven tooled up,

Nonsense. Ned recollects this fourteen years, and countless songs, later. People needn't even know where the tower was except "in the south".

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

and that in turn implies that if Rhaegar was proclaiming the joys of spring and Lyanna Stark, then the world and his wife knew what was going on and that there was no mystery

But that's exactly what everyone and their mother think - that Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna (everyone minus Robert, of course). Doesn't mean they knew where.

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

- or, and more likely Rhaegar coined the phrase on that earlier occsion, bringing Elia from Dorne.

Nonsense. First, you need to show a quote that Rhaegar ever went to Dorne. Second, that future wife that he was "fond of" sparkled a comment about "joy", which in this context looks rather sarcastic.

2 minutes ago, LynnS said:

We're back to canon vs semi-canon.  The wiki entry points to the Lands of Ice and Fire and the cartographer claims that these maps are canon according to GRRM's sketches. The maps appear to be copyright GRRM.  Can we give the maps a little more weight?

The maps are given weight according to the poster's stance on what comes handy or not.

[LynnS]

8 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The maps are given weight according to the poster's stance on what comes handy or not.

This is what GRRM says about it.  What are we to make of that?

http://grrm.livejournal.com/297016.html

[Ygrain]

1 minute ago, LynnS said:

This is what GRRM says about it.  What are we to make of that?

http://grrm.livejournal.com/297016.html

It is generally known that GRRM is not Tolkien who would rewrite whole chapters because distances for a day's walking or moon phases didn't fit. Distances (And travel times) are unreliable. 

However, I was referring to the fact that even if there was a cross marking the location where Rhaegar's sperm joined Lyanna's egg, some people would still call it "not canon" :-)

[LynnS]

8 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

 

However, I was referring to the fact that even if there was a cross marking the location where Rhaegar's sperm joined Lyanna's egg, some people would still call it "not canon" :-)

I've never heard of this before. 

" Authors such as Malcolm Gladwell have turned confirmation bias into a successful formula for writing best sellers. The trick is to make a claim that something is a necessary condition for something else (A is necessary for B to occur)" - skeptics dictionary

Why is it necessary to the story for Jon to be Rhaegar + Lyanna's progeny? 

[The Ned's Little Girl]

15 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I've never heard of this before. 

" Authors such as Malcolm Gladwell have turned confirmation bias into a successful formula for writing best sellers. The trick is to make a claim that something is a necessary condition for something else (A is necessary for B to occur)" - skeptics dictionary

Why is it necessary to the story for Jon to be Rhaegar + Lyanna's progeny? 

Because it's the only theory (so far) that makes the most sense of character's thoughts and actions, that answers the most questions, doesn't create more questions than it answers and doesn't rely on making stuff up to fill in the holes.

 

[LynnS]

1 minute ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Because it's the only theory (so far) that makes the most sense of character's thoughts and actions, that answers the most questions, doesn't create more questions than it answers and doesn't rely on making stuff up to fill in the holes.

 

So it doesn't have anything to do with the Prince who is Promised?

[Little Scribe of Naath]

1 hour ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Sigh...No its not.

Wolfmaid, I am not able to follow your reasoning here.

If RB + L happened, there should have been love, or some affection between them, right?

We know Robert loved Lyanna. But there is nothing in the books from Lyanna's side. Instead the author chooses to give us this:

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

This is not indicative of a positive attraction or even neutral feeling of friendship, it is Lyanna basically saying, "Ned, I am not having illusions here, Robert won't be faithful to me even after we are married." How is this anything other than a negative assessment?

If Lyanna indeed liked Robert, why would the author not choose to give us an indication of such?

 

2 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Note: Place holder .Naath i don't know where you are getting this idea that i am not choosing to answer your questions.But these will serve to make sure i'll answer the ones that need more than one line to answer.

No problem. Answer when you have the time. I just wanted to make sure they are answered, because they are big glaring holes in the theory to me.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

10 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Because it's the only theory (so far) that makes the most sense of character's thoughts and actions, that answers the most questions, doesn't create more questions than it answers and doesn't rely on making stuff up to fill in the holes.

This. R + L = J is the theory most widely accepted because it is the one which makes the most sense based on the information we have currently.  

[Ygrain]

38 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I've never heard of this before. 

" Authors such as Malcolm Gladwell have turned confirmation bias into a successful formula for writing best sellers. The trick is to make a claim that something is a necessary condition for something else (A is necessary for B to occur)" - skeptics dictionary

Why is it necessary to the story for Jon to be Rhaegar + Lyanna's progeny? 

 

17 minutes ago, LynnS said:

So it doesn't have anything to do with the Prince who is Promised?

That most likely, too, and a song of ice and fire. And secrets too dangerous to share even with the ones you love and trust.

7 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

This. R + L = J is the theory most widely accepted because it is the one which makes the most sense based on the information we have currently.  

And no information we have had so far cotnradicts it.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

2 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

And no information we have had so far cotnradicts it.

It is really weird that somehow to prove R + L were in love, we need "hard textual evidence that they conversed, interacted, blah blah". Where is the evidence for any alternative, I wonder?

[SFDanny]

17 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Ok, there's something we can work with here. How much older than Robb do you believe Jon was?

If Jon was conceived at Harrenhal, he was conceived in 281. We can't be certain when, but it doesn't have to have been may day, right? We could push this back as late as maybe September, October at a real push. 

Robb was conceived just after Ned & Cat's marriage, at which point Ned is off for around a year. Not withstanding the wiki telling us the Battle of the Bells was in 283, there's scope in the timeline for it to have been in 282 and for Robb to be born sometime in the middle of 283.

I don't want to disturb what is a fascinating discussion, but let me just add this to it. We can nail Robb's birth down to the last quarter of 283 AC. 

The start of the A Game of Thrones main narrative is absolutely in year 298 AC, by that I mean everything outside the prologue and the Daenerys storyline. I can show how this has to be, based on Jon Arryn's death, Joffrey's nameday, and the later namedays of other characters, if you like, but for the moment let's just go with this as an accepted fact.

Now, one of the first things we hear Catelyn say is the following: 

Quote

And one day fifteen years ago, this second father had become a brother as well, as he and Ned stood together in the sept at Rivverrun to wed two sisters, the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully. (AGoT 21) bold emphasis added

If we assume Catelyn knows the present year and can subtract from that year to her correct wedding date, we come up with the fact her wedding takes place in 283 AC.

Now we are also told Robb is conceived on Ned and Catelyn's wedding night, and we can be sure he was born in 283 AC as well based on the fact his 16th name day falls before the news of the Red Wedding reaches Joffrey's and Margaery's wedding on the first day of 300 AC. He turns 16 in 299 AC. Other proofs of his age can be given as well.

So, if Robb is conceived and born in year 283 the maximum swing on when those two things can happen is three months, assuming a nine month pregnancy.

Jon has to also be able to pass as a slightly younger child, at least, so the idea he was conceived at Harrenhal, doesn't pass the laugh test. Why? Because, even if we assume a late December 281 date for the Harrenhal tourney - which we know is too late, it means the latest a chid conceived at Harrenhal would be born is nine months into 282, or a full year to a year and a quarter age difference between a Jon conceived at Harrenhal and a Robb conceived in the first quarter of 283. In babies, that much difference in age cannot be hidden.

This all also means the Battle of the Bells has to take place before the dual wedding, so first quarter 283 at the latest, with late 282 being possible.

[Ygrain]

10 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It is really weird that somehow to prove R + L were in love, we need "hard textual evidence that they conversed, interacted, blah blah". Where is the evidence for any alternative, I wonder?

Why, the author cannot reveal everything or else there wouldn't be a mystery. Oh, wait... double standards 

[The Ned's Little Girl]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It is really weird that somehow to prove R + L were in love, we need "hard textual evidence that they conversed, interacted, blah blah". Where is the evidence for any alternative, I wonder?

I think the question of R&L being in love can be regarded as separate from the question of did they boink. Being in love with each other would sure be nice - it's too soon to tell either way - but boinkage can happen with it.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

1 hour ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

I think the question of R&L being in love can be regarded as separate from the question of did they boink. Being in love with each other would sure be nice - it's too soon to tell either way - but boinkage can happen with it.

That is true. Maybe Lyanna did not go willingly. But if she did, then it is hard to explain it away as anything else than love. With Rhaegar, of course, we possibly have love and/or the prophecy playing a part.

My 'alternative' in this case referred to alternate theories of Jon's parentage.

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Nonsense. Ned recollects this fourteen years, and countless songs, later. People needn't even know where the tower was except "in the south".

But that's exactly what everyone and their mother think - that Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna (everyone minus Robert, of course). Doesn't mean they knew where.

So basically the "tower of joy" phrase is an invention of the ballad singers? 

[Ygrain]

46 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

So basically the "tower of joy" phrase is an invention of the ballad singers? 

It might. Or perhaps, when asked about his previous whereabouts after his return to KL, Rhaegar deadpanned something about "the tower of joy" and the word spread.

Either way, with Ned thinking "it was said" fourteen years later, the conclusions you made from it are invalid.

 

[Black Crow]

Only in your mind 

[Ygrain]

Pray, show me where the quote implies a time period where the phrase started to be used, or when Ned heard it.