The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread, Part II

[Sarella]

Could Jaime have told Ned where to find Lyanna and the rest of the KG?

Jaime did speak to Rhaegar on the day he rode off to the trident, asking not to be left behind to guard Aerys. Jaime would have known which KG were going with Rhaegar. Would he have known where the rest of the KG were and what they were doing?

[The Wolf Maid]

I highly doubt Jaime would have said anything to Ned, nor would Ned have talked to him, considering the antagonism between them during that time.

[DanteGabriel]

Could Jaime have told Ned where to find Lyanna and the rest of the KG?

Jaime did speak to Rhaegar on the day he rode off to the trident, asking not to be left behind to guard Aerys. Jaime would have known which KG were going with Rhaegar. Would he have known where the rest of the KG were and what they were doing?

I really think that if Jaime had known where Lyanna Stark or the rest of the Kingsguard knights had been, Lannisters would have gotten there before Ned.

[snake]

Rhaegar was "found" by Aerys men once it was realized how big a threat Robert was. So I would think that there were quite a few who knew where Rhaegar was after that. Still, Ned didn't rush of to the ToJ, he went to Storm's End first and settled matters there and cleaned up any other pockets of resistance because we know from his POV that he left Kingslanding to fight the rest of the battles in the South. It was only after this, and after Robert was crowned and the Targaryens nearly annihilated that he went to the ToJ. So he had ample time to find out where Lyanna was from any number of different sources. It could even be that some loyalist trying to show his newfound loyalty to Robert had told him.

Although I do like the Varys angle. It's much in Varys character to try and show himself useful by relaying what he considers useful information and if anyone knew where Rhaegar was it would have been him.

[Shewoman]

Good point about some--maybe many--of Aerys' retainers knowing where Rhaegar was in the early-to-mid part of the war, Snake. Ned wasn't privy to this information, though. It would seem that the people you mention would either be in KL with Aerys or fighting on the other side. How--before getting to KL around the time it fell--would Ned have gotten this information from them?

[SFDanny]

Now, if I have it correctly, here is a summary of the options for Ned's source for Lyanna's location:

(1) - If Ned learns of Lyanna's location before the Battle of the Trident, his source is limited to a spy or an inadvertent leak by someone who functions as such (Ashara?). This assumes he knows the information, but he can't do anything about it because of the military situation, or he chooses not to do anything about it because of his commitment to the rebellion. If the source is Ashara Dayne, then we have to assume she meets Ned secretly and either lets the information slip or gives it to Ned not thinking about what will happen when Ned and the kingsguard meet. If so, then she must also know about Ned's marriage to Catelyn and this can't be a source of her apparent suicide. If she gives the location over without thinking that it will endanger both Ned and her brother, then this sounds rather stupid on her part, but stupidity shouldn't rule this scenario out. Certainly Ned made some very questionable decisions as the Hand that led to disaster. It also assumes Ashara has been given the information by her brother or through palace gossip (the latter seeming to be much more likely to me.) If some other person is the source then it is probably unimportant to the plot.

(2) - If Ned learns of Lyanna's location after the Battle of the Trident, but before the fall of King's Landing, the pool of possible sources enlarges to include any survivors of the battle, in particular Ser Barristan Selmy. While Ser Barristan is quite likely to know the location of his other brothers of the kingsguard, his willingness to give it to Ned is highly questionable. He is also severely wounded so it is possible he says something in his delirium while recovering. If it comes from some other nameless source in the defeated army then his/her identity is likely unimportant, but we still have to ask why does Ned do nothing with the information after the northern host is victorious? Ashara as a candidate has to become less and less as we know she is in Starfall when Ned is at the Tower of Joy. So, unless she is traveling a great deal in a very chaotic war zone, she becomes less and less likely. The previous remarks about stupidity still apply.

(3) - If Ned learns of Lyanna's location after the Fall of King's Landing, but before the lifting of the siege of Storm's End the pool enlarges considerably. In particular, Varys and any other member of the Royal Court who could have had access to a carelessly dropped word could be the source. The problem for Varys is we have ample examples of Ned's attitude to the Spider and none of it seems to be positive until after Ned and Ser Barristan save Robert from assassination in the Hand's tourney. If Ned knows Varys is his source of information to where he can find his sister it would seem likely he would have a more favorable opinion of the eunuch. We also have to rule out Varys as a Targaryen loyalist if he gives Ned the location of the heir to the throne (assuming Lyanna is pregnant.) If Jaime is the source, we have to ask why he would tell Ned anything given the tensions between Lord Eddard and the entire Lannister clan. If Jaime told Ned, is there any reason to expect him to even believe him? This all seems very, very unlikely. All other candidates are either unimportant or they still have the same problems (Ser Barristan or Ashara.) Now, however, we have to wonder why Ned waits around for so long to move to rescue his sister if he has this information? Is he worried that he can't get to the Tower of Joy? Most of the Tyrell's and Redwyne's forces or tied up in the siege of Storm's End, so it would seem like a mounted force of men could travel swiftly and without much opposition if he thinks a rescue is needed (another argument for Ned already knowing Lyanna went willingly, btw.)

(4) - If Ned learns of Lyanna's location after the lifting of the siege of Storm's End the pool of possible sources change rather than enlarge. Ashara and Ser Barristan must now be ruled out. Ashara because she has to be in Starfall by this time and Ser Barristan because he stays in King's Landing to recuperate. Varys is also likely to be still in King's Landing but we can't be sure of that. It becomes more likely that the source is someone who Ned meets after the siege is lifted. This could be Lord Tyrell or Redwyne or just some one who has the information because they came from the Tower (a servant, a maester, a guard, etc.) The added benefit for this scenario is that Ned acts upon the information as soon as he gets it (I don't think he travels back to King's Landing, but I'm a little fuzzy on the timing of Robert's coronation.)

Lastly, it would seem that when Ned does go to the Tower of Joy he travels only with his closest companions, men whom he absolutely trusts. Why no large military force? I think it is because he knows what faces him at the Tower (three kingsguard) and he knows that Lyanna is not a prisoner. If she was, the appropriate response would have been to overwhelm the royalists there.

Have I missed anything?

[Shewoman]

A good recap, SFDanny. I agree that the small force Ned takes to ToJ indicates that he knows what size force he will meet there.

I doubt that Ned encountered Ashara during the war. We know that during part of that time she was one of Elia's ladies-in-waiting and I don't think Ned was in KL until it fell. If Ashara was willing to try to find Ned in the middle of a war, I don't think he'd want her to do that; he'd see that as her endangering herself. (I also think--that being a rather unusual thing for a lady to do--that we might have heard some hint of it. Of course, perhaps we have, maybe that more than Harrenhal led Catelyn and Cersei to think Ashara might be Jon's mother.)

I think that Ned learned where Lyanna was later rather than sooner--largely because it's "later" that he goes to find her. Of course, as a general in Robert's army his sense of honor would keep him from running off to find her if he had learned where she was months earlier--but he might have dispatched some people to go see how she was without risking his honor.

[SFDanny]

A good recap, SFDanny. I agree that the small force Ned takes to ToJ indicates that he knows what size force he will meet there.

I doubt that Ned encountered Ashara during the war. We know that during part of that time she was one of Elia's ladies-in-waiting and I don't think Ned was in KL until it fell. If Ashara was willing to try to find Ned in the middle of a war, I don't think he'd want her to do that; he'd see that as her endangering herself. (I also think--that being a rather unusual thing for a lady to do--that we might have heard some hint of it. Of course, perhaps we have, maybe that more than Harrenhal led Catelyn and Cersei to think Ashara might be Jon's mother.)

I think that Ned learned where Lyanna was later rather than sooner--largely because it's "later" that he goes to find her. Of course, as a general in Robert's army his sense of honor would keep him from running off to find her if he had learned where she was months earlier--but he might have dispatched some people to go see how she was without risking his honor.

Thank you. I would guess the most likely time for Ned to meet Ashara is after Brandon's death and before his marriage to Catelyn. Ned is at the Eyrie and Ashara is likely in King's Landing with the Queen. Ashara traveling to the Vale, or a neutral location, for a secret meeting is much more likely at that point than later. Ned might want such a meeting to tell his love he has to take his brother's place as part of the honor of his house and for the new alliance of House Arryn and Stark with the Tullys. It would be like Ned to have such a meeting before his marriage, but is there anything more that comes out of it? A child perhaps? I'd bet Ned already knows his sister is with Rhaegar willingly (even if he disapproves) and a discussion of her whereabouts would not be crazy to expect in such an encounter. It still seems stupid to me on Ashara's part. This seems to me the only real scenario if Ashara is the source.

I'm with you, however, my favored possiblitlity is for Ned to learn of Lyanna's location after the breaking of the siege of Storm's End. He then acts on it quickly and quietly to get his sister back in order to ensure her safety. I doubt Ned knows she is with child when he rides to the Tower of Joy (or his questions to the Kingsguard make no sense,) but he is obviously concerned what will happen to her if the wrong people find her. It would make sense if Ned is worried by Robert's reaction to learning Lyanna loved Rhaegar and went willingly - and she likely wants no part of a marriage to the killer of her beloved Prince. In that context, his travelling to the Tower of Joy with only men he can trust absolutely makes a lot of sense.

[Ran]

SPOILER: ADwD

We learn in a Davos chapter that following Brandon's death and Jon Arryn raising the banner of rebellion, Ned seems to have gone pretty quickly to exit the Eyrie and make for the North. There's really no time to reconcile that with his having to wait for a visit from Ashara to the Eyrie after Brandon's death -- he'd be gone by the time she arrived, I expect. She may have started the journey before all that mess, or she may have met him elsewhere, but the specific combination of post-Brandon and in the Eyrie seems like a non-starter.

Note that Ashara was very likely not one of Elia's companions in the last year of her marriage (i.e., during the war), and for all we know may have been a companion for only a couple of years.

[Shewoman]

Ran, you always bring order out of . . . less order.

SFDanny, again I agree with you: a pre-War meeting between Ned and Ashara is easier to envision than a mid-war one. Since, post-war, Catelyn seems to hear from people at Winterfell that Ashara is Jon's mother, they could have met there (although I don't think she's Jon's mother).

[snake]

Good point about some--maybe many--of Aerys' retainers knowing where Rhaegar was in the early-to-mid part of the war, Snake. Ned wasn't privy to this information, though. It would seem that the people you mention would either be in KL with Aerys or fighting on the other side. How--before getting to KL around the time it fell--would Ned have gotten this information from them?

Shewoman,

You kinda lost me here. I'm fairly certain Ned knew nothing of Lyanna's whereabouts until after the Sack at the very earliest. It could be that he didn't find out until after he lifted the siege of Storm's End, which seems more likely to me. I don't think I implied that Ned knew any earlier than immediately after the Sack, or at least Robert's coronation.

[Antares]

Clearly Lyanna + Rhaegar != Jon.

Jon is just their son. If you added Lyanna to Rhaegar and combined them into one entity, you would have some bizzarre mutant. Rhaeganna.

[Roi Woodt]

SFDanny,

Now, if I have it correctly, here is a summary of the options for Ned's source for Lyanna's location:

A good summary, but

Have I missed anything?

Benjen Stark

[Shewoman]

Snake--I, too, think that Ned found out where Lyanna was after the fall of KL. In my post that you quoted, I was trying to say that even if there were people in KL who knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were, how would Ned have gotten this information from them before he came to KL at the end of the war? Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[snake]

Shewoman,

You probably did make it clear. I sometimes read to quickly and I rarely reread so I often make mistakes.

[SFDanny]

SFDanny,

Now, if I have it correctly, here is a summary of the options for Ned's source for Lyanna's location:

A good summary, but

Have I missed anything?

Benjen Stark

I left him out because, while I like Benjen for a confidant of Lyanna, I don't see how he has the information about the Tower of Joy. I can see him knowing that Lyanna went with Rhaegar willingly, but beyond that I think his location is pretty much in Winterfell for the duration of the war. How does he get access to knowledge concerning where Lyanna and Rhaegar are hiding out? I could be wrong, but I don't see it as too likely.

[Roi Woodt]

SFDanny

I could be wrong, but I don't see it as too likely.

I could be wrong as well, see signature...

But, there is a possibility that Lyanna told Benjen that Rhaegar was taking her to the Tower of Joy, just before she left. And maybe she even made Benjen promise her that he wouldn't tell her father. Promise me Ben, promise me...

[SFDanny]

SFDanny

I could be wrong, but I don't see it as too likely.

I could be wrong as well, see signature...

But, there is a possibility that Lyanna told Benjen that Rhaegar was taking her to the Tower of Joy, just before she left. And maybe she even made Benjen promise her that he wouldn't tell her father. Promise me Ben, promise me...

How, if this is true, does this information then get to Ned? Young Benjen is very likely stuck in Winterfell for the course of the war, and it isn't clear that Ned ever makes it back there. If he does so when he calls his banners, then Ned sits on the information until the war's end. Not a scenario I find very likely, but still I guess it is possible.

[Shewoman]

We've no reason to think Ned was at Winterfell between the time of Lyanna's disappearance and his post-war arrival with Jon before Catelyn and Robb get there.

[Piper]

We've no reason to think Ned was at Winterfell between the time of Lyanna's disappearance and his post-war arrival with Jon before Catelyn and Robb get there.

Maybe nothing explicit to make us think that, but it would make sense that he left the Eryie to return home to call the banners after he hears of his father's and brother's murder.