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Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread 2


wolfmaid7

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3 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

But Ygrain Barristan Selmy said very clearly that he 

" Can't speak to what might have been in Rhaegar's heart."

He doesn't know anything beyond what everyone in Westeros knows.This is from Baaristan's mouth.

Don't be ridiculous. In his inner monologue, he is far more outspoken, so does he have a multiple personality disorder now? Or is Aerys charming now because Barristan said so? 

3 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Ned has good reasons to hide Jon if he's Robert's as i pointed out.

Except that at the point when he becomes Jon's guardian, your reasoning doesn't apply yet. Cersei and Robert married in 284.

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Since this is a wrap-up thread, I attempted a little "table" of textual support:


                                                    Rhaegar                    Robert                    Howland                   Arthur                   Mance
visual confirmation                   ----                             ----                            ----                               ----                           ----
personal experience                 ----                     loved Lyanna                ----                               ----                          ----
symbolic depiction              HotU vision                    ----                           ----                                ----                     Bael story
                                           crown of blue roses

                                                 Bael story                                                    
rumours                                        plenty                         ----                           ----                                 ----                          ----
confirmed interaction       HH  crowning                   HH                            HH rescue                  ----                          ----
possible interaction            KotLT search                   ----                   KotLT shenanigans          HH                    HH(if present)
                                                    ToJ*  **                           ----                             ----                               ToJ*                ----

*if the dream sequence placing Lyanna and the KG at the tower is correct
** if the above is correct, then Lyanna is found in the presence of two guys who always accompanied Rhaegar and the third was sent to fetch him, so unless Rhaegar travelled all on his own, they met at some point
 

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6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

 

Since this is a wrap-up thread, I attempted a little "table" of textual support:

 

This is the sum total of theories out there?  Is this strictly for proposed Dad's assuming the mother is Lyanna?  That limits the discussion if you don't include Ashara as Jon's potential mother. 

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

This is the sum total of theories out there?  Is this strictly for proposed Dad's assuming the mother is Lyanna?  That limits the discussion if you don't include Ashara as Jon's potential mother. 

First thing, that's my sum, based on whatever I could remember from the books. Second, the width of the table is limited :P  But I can do one just for the ladies, I happen to have a moment right now.

                                          Ashara                                            Wylla                          FMD                 
visual confirmation             ----                                                  ----                               ----                       
personal experience           ----                                              Ned says it                       ----
                                              ----                                          Edric hears about it*            ----                       
symbolic depiction             ----                                                  ----                                ----                    
rumours                       Cersei, Cat, Edric                               Edric*                       Lord Borrell                   
contradicting rumours         Harwin                                         ----                                 ----                       
                         Jon's mother was commonborn (Winterfell)      ----                                 ----                       
                           Jon's mother was Wylla (Edric)                       ----                                 ----                       
confirmed interaction     HH  dancing                                      ----                           sea transport                         
possible interaction       returning Dawn                               Starfall                              ----

*I'm giving Edric benefit of doubt here as he might have heard from Wylla herself, so I'm placing him in both categories.

 

That's all I can think about. If I have left anything out, feel free to point it out.

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8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Since this is a wrap-up thread, I attempted a little "table" of textual support:


                                                    Rhaegar                    Robert                    Howland                   Arthur                   Mance
visual confirmation                   ----                             ----                            ----                               ----                           ----
personal experience                 ----                     loved Lyanna                ----                               ----                          ----
symbolic depiction              HotU vision                    ----                           ----                                ----                     Bael story
                                           crown of blue roses

                                                 Bael story                                                    
rumours                                        plenty                         ----                           ----                                 ----                          ----
confirmed interaction       HH  crowning                   HH                            HH rescue                  ----                          ----
possible interaction            KotLT search                   ----                   KotLT shenanigans          HH                    HH(if present)
                                                    ToJ*  **                           ----                             ----                               ToJ*                ----

*if the dream sequence placing Lyanna and the KG at the tower is correct
** if the above is correct, then Lyanna is found in the presence of two guys who always accompanied Rhaegar and the third was sent to fetch him, so unless Rhaegar travelled all on his own, they met at some point
 

Like the table Ygrain.

I would add simply the entire story of the "kidnapping" depends on Rhaegar and Lyanna spending time together. Seemingly a lot of time if Robert's angry question to Ned is to be answered , "how many times do you think he raped  your sister? How many hundreds of times?" Indeed every source of the kidnapping has Rhaegar responsible, whatever side of the rebellion they fought on. The only difference is if a character believes Lyanna was forced, or Lyanna and Rhaegar were in love. There are exactly zero clues in the story that point to someone other than Rhaegar being responsible for the kidnapping. None, nada, zip. And every clue, from the months that Rhaegar was hidden from his father, to Robert's quote above, and every other view points to a long time they were together.

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@wolfmaid7

On the subject of Robert + Lyanna's love:

1. If we're talking about the social expectations of "that era", I'd first like to point out that premarital sex was a taboo for highborn women and they were expected to come to their bed a virgin. We know that Brandon Stark and Catelyn were betrothed since she was 12, and from Catelyn's recollections of him, it's easy to infer that they had met and interacted quite a bit before their wedding. However, she never slept with him and there is no indication that he ever made a move on her, even though, (much like Robert) we know "he was never shy about taking what he wanted." 

2. There is nothing in the books, nothing at all that indicates Lyanna would be willing to sleep with Robert even if he made a move on her prior to their wedding. 

3. It'd be appropriate to point out here that we get a full account of the HH tourney from Howland's POV, who was with the wolves at their table. Robert and Lyanna are not mentioned to be interacting even slightly, even sitting together, or dancing together, forget about having a tryst. Robert was busy in a drinking contest while Lyanna was *ahem* appreciating the song played by Rhaegar. 

4. Lyanna's line stating that "Love will never change a man's nature" is actually proven right by your assertions. If Lyanna had been engaged to a man with a different nature, let's say like Ned/Barristan/Jaime/Stannis/Doran/Beric/Rhaegar, there would have been no question of them sleeping around at all.

 Ygrain's point about Ned comparing Robert and Rhaegar in his mind is doubly applicable here. We get a passage of Lyanna disapproving Robert's nature of sleeping around, and then Ned directly compares that behavior of Bob's to Rhaegar in his mind. What does that mean? Oh yes, it was not in Rhaegar's nature to visit brothels. Now why specifically compare Rhaegar to Robert? The only possibility is that he was the man Lyanna chose.

 

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40 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I'm giving Edric benefit of doubt here as he might have heard from Wylla herself, so I'm placing him in both categories.

What Edric tells Arya is that he and Jon were milk-brothers.  Arya then jumps to the conclusion that Wylla the wet nurse was Jon's mother along with a lot of denial and anger that her dad could have dishonored her mother this way.  Edric then clams up saying that maybe he shouldn't have said anything.  Arya completely misses the part where Edric tells her that Ashara was in love with Ned according to his Aunt, Ashara's sister.  He doesn't finish telling her what he knows.  Then Harlan also tries to shutdown the conversation; telling Arya it might or might not be true; but so what, nobody was betrothed at that point and this sort of thing happens at Tourneys; so there is no stain on her father's name. He said he heard the story as a boy at Winterfell.  Then he tells her to let the dead lie and not to bring it up with Catelyn when they get to Riverrun.  This suggests to me that Harlan knows the whole story directly from Edric and not just by rumor when he was a boy.

We get Ned using Wylla when Robert questions him about his bastard as a deflection.  He is sticking with the lie so Robert will not question him even further.  Bedding a serving girl or a maid is not something that Robert would think twice about.   Ned is protecting someone with the lie.  Bran brings up that very question: Is it sometimes OK to lie if it's for a good reason.

We have several instances instory where the rumor of someone's death is used to hide the person who is supposed to be dead to the world.  This come up with Bran when Sam takes an oath three times not to tell anyone that Bran is alive.  Coldhands says he doesn't want anyone to come looking for him.  The second example is Sandor Clegane.  Elder Brother tells Brienne that he buried the hound himself when she tells him that she is looking for him.  Sandor is now the gravedigger on the Quiet Isle; it was the death of his identity; the hound no longer exists.

So we have Ashara Dayne rumored to have jumped off a cliff although her body was never found.  Her death must be at least one of the secrets that Ned is keeping since rumor has it that he went to Starfall to return the Dawn Sword.  At some point, Ned returns with Jon who can be tentatively placed at Starfall if Wyla the nursemaid is in service to the Daynes.  If Jon is Ned and Ashara's son; it's a pretty good reason not to disclose that to Robert or anyone else if she has been disappeared for a purpose.

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 @Kingmonkey: the site shut me down twice when I tried to respond to this from the last thread. My apologies for the delay.

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I think that's most likely an illustration of Barristan's ongoing infatuation with Ashara. All these years later, he still sees her in other women.

 

And if Barristan had just been talking about how much he loved Ashara, I’d be more likely to dismiss it as such. Martin could easily have gotten the point across.

But he specifically ties her to Dany. In the same book where Quaithe shows up again and asks Dany to “remember” who she is.” Barristan’s comment comes out of literally nowhere—seems like a pointer.

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It's possible, but I think the more likely thing here is that GRRM is setting us up to see Dany's development in terms of the Targaryen coin-toss. Her father is the epitome of Targaryen madness, her brother is the epitome of Targaryen nobility. A huge part of Dany's battle is the internal battle between these two sides of herself; whether she will become a mad tyrant or a mother to her people.

Possible. And definitely part of Dany’s development.

But Martin could easily have gotten that aspect done with Dany just breaking from Viserys, or Dany seeing Rhaegar make wise decisions, or something.

Martin goes much further with the vision and with Dany’s seeing herself in Rhaegar’s armor. Rhaegar looks at Dany when he’s with his children, talking of his plans, and says “there must be one more.” It’s family-planning specific. And directly tied to Dany. 

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"That name" seems like a really important part of the wording here. It's very specific. He objects with cold fury to talk of Ashara specifically, rather than to talk of Jon's mother.

Agreed—but at the same time, Ned’s connecting “that name” with his silence about Jon’s origins.

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My take is that Ned and Ashara were in love, and that Ned simply had not got over the fact that his marriage to Cat was something that honour and necessity forced upon him, smashing his dreams (and probably Ashara's too). It was too much for him to hear Cat, of all people, talking about Ashara.

This is one of those times we could really use Ned’s journal. This is possible. But as I said above, he is connecting silencing talk of Ashara with silencing talk of Jon’s origins.

Unless Ashara is Jon’s mother (which I doubt), the question remains: what’s the connection? Ned silences talk of Ashara AND mourns Arthur—the Dayne connection matters. 

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And that indeed does fit with Daynish respect for Ned.

But would loving Ashara and returning the sword realm make up for killing Arthur? I could see those offsetting Daynish rage. But Ned Dayne’s convo with Arya (let alone his nickname) strongly suggest a stronger respect. Seems like something else is up.

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Yet we have the disasters of the Rebellion fundamentally tied to Lyanna's abduction. We have to wonder why, if it was not their intent to hold on to Lyanna, they didn't save an awful lot of trouble and bloodshed by saying so.

One way or another, we have to wonder why Rhaegar sat out that war. The World Book makes it clear that both Tywin and Rhaegar wanted Aerys off of the throne. And that Tywin once tried to use someone else’s rebellion to get it done. And that Rhaegar’s unspecified plans at Harrenhal got undermined.

If Rhaegar realized the war might get him what he wanted after he’d ended up with Lyanna, I could possibly see him holding onto her as a bargaining chip after he came out the hero in the last battle.

And if Lyanna ended up pregnant during all of this, I could also see her reluctance/fear over going home pregnant.

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Indeed, we have to wonder why, if they had a secret child of Rhaegar & Ashara's to hide and protect, they invited Ned's attention by holding on to her.

Because once they had Lyanna, she knew too much? Like Sansa ends up knowing a lot more than Baelish might eventually want her to know? Or, as I said above, for a potential bargaining chip once Rhaegar gets Aerys deposed.

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Very much so -- though I have to wonder how Ned would get that knowledge. If he found a pregnant Ashara, what would lead to the knowledge that the father was Rhaegar?

If Lyanna ended up with them by accident, she’d end up knowing things, no? As Jon does. As Sansa and Arya do. Handing Lyanna back too soon might mean handing Ned information.

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Furthermore, it's hard to see why they would keep Ashara and Lyanna in the same place, knowing full well that Ned had a huge army they couldn't possibly stop, and was looking for Lyanna.

Again, this may not have been the plan—any more than Mance “planned” to get Jon. Or the Brotherhood planned to get Arya. 

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10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That would be the so-called "Apple Martini's test question" :-)

Apple Martini is a long-time poster, currently away from the boards.

Yep ,I've read her analyses. She's one of the best posters around here :D 

On the subject of blue roses, though, whatever the symbolism might indicate, it is worth noting that Rhaegar made the crown of QOLAB out of Lyanna's favorite flowers. Blue roses are pretty uncommon and would not be a natural choice for the crown, unless he was trying to appeal to her. It's what a guy would do to a woo a girl - take her preferences into account. 

Of course, we don't see Robert even trying anything of the sort, even though he was her fiance.

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17 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I'd actually agree with this. I would say, that Martin has laid out clues that Bael the Bard's story wasn't one of romance, at all. I think that Bael might have stolen her  and possibly, raped her. The biggest clue to this is Bran's visions in his final chapter in ADWD:

This vision follows the one of Ned's generation of Starks (Lyanna and Benjen playing with swords) and precedes the one of Brandon Snow's (during the time Torrhen Stark was king.) Timeline wise, that would mean it falls in the period post Starks giving up their crown - making them Lords of Winterfell. 

This is one of my favorite interps of the woman in the pool. It would make so much sense, and fit with Ygritte's disclaimer well. 

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And Brandon the Daughterless indeed was a Lord and not a king of Winterfell.

It also defies logic as to how a pregnant woman could stay in the crypts for 9 months and manage during such a delicate time.  No, IMO, Stonesnake was right.

Pretty obviously this entire episode was eliminated from official Stark history due to the nature of the whole thing, which is how Jon has no idea about it. But among the Wildlings, Bael must have spun a different tale completely.

:agree:

The singer deliberately spun the tale. Bael--and later, we have Bael-ish also spinning tales and manipulating history to get what he wants. From Jon Arryn's murder onwards. 

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This also ties in with why his son finally did what the lady prayed for - and killed his father. With the taboo against kinslaying in Westeros, there must have been a major motivation for him to do so. 

YUP! The "real" ending is about kinslaying--yet another reason why I think it might be pushing against Rhaegar as Jon's father. Ned the Lord of Winterfell doesn't kill Rhaegar. Not an act of kinslaying on Ned's part for Rhaegar to die.

Ned kills Arthur. Then takes an artifact back to a towered castle. Then a woman throws herself from a tower.

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However, I do not believe that the tale is necessarily an exact echo of R + L ,

Agreed--Martin doesn't run his echoes straight. But the Bael Tale's presentation of the roses fits with the rest of the books presentation of blue roses--deceit, grudge matches, politics. Fights in which women/girls end up being pawns. Even Sansa has a Marillion tell her he will sing of her being a rose--while she's being used by Baelish. Those roses are not about love in these books. At all.

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I agree with you that it's really hard to explain some of their actions away if there wasn't love involved.

I'd offer an alternate interpretation: Maybe it's a tale of love gone sour, where they were initially in love and eloped but Lyanna maybe realised it was a mistake to have run off with him later.

Perhaps--but the World Book is not subtle about the fact that something was very wrong about the crowning from the start. That it was clear form the start that the roses weren't the standard compliment to a pretty girl.

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I still think it's Lyanna because of GRRM confirming it, but those are good points :)

Any chance you have the link to this? I've never seen an SSM on this.

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Very true, and I agree there is enough room for it to go either way. The truth will be pretty complicated, whenever GRRM reveals it.

Amen.

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Excellent post, Sly Wren :)

Same to you! :cheers:

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16 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Saying that Ygritte "disclaimed" Baelette's love for Bael is overselling it.

Saying that Ygritte discredited Baelette's love (the name is perfect, so I'm sticking with it) would be overselling. But that's an outright disclaimer. And it is the only disclaimer, the only part she questions.

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"No. They had been in Winterfell all the time, hiding with the dead beneath the castle. The maid loved Bael so dearly she bore him a son, the song says . . . though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote. Be that as it may, what's certain is that Bael left the child in payment for the rose he'd plucked unasked, and that the boy grew to be the next Lord Stark. So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me." Clash, Jon VI

 

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She casts doubt on it, but the conclusion of the story -- not the song -- has her jumping from a tower when she learns that her son has killed Bael. A sign of distress that could be explained by her affection for Bael, which might not have been reciprocated. At least for very long.

Possible. But when Ygritte is telling the "real" ending of the story, she makes it clear that the problem is kinslaying.

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"The song ends when they find the babe, but there is a darker end to the story. Thirty years later, when Bael was King-beyond-the-Wall and led the free folk south, it was young Lord Stark who met him at the Frozen Ford . . . and killed him, for Bael would not harm his own son when they met sword to sword."

"So the son slew the father instead," said Jon.

"Aye," she said, "but the gods hate kinslayers, even when they kill unknowing. When Lord Stark returned from the battle and his mother saw Bael's head upon his spear, she threw herself from a tower in her grief. Her son did not long outlive her. One o' his lords peeled the skin off him and wore him for a cloak." Clash, Jon VI

The context? Kinslaying brought on the tragedy. In that context, the Stolen Maid may would be throwing herself from the tower in grief that her son had become a kinslayer. Because she didn't tell him the truth--he became a kinslayer unknowing.

That would also fit with Ygritte's characterization of the story's "darker" end. Not romance. Pure horror over kinslaying.

16 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Frankly, I don't find it hard to believe that Bael was popular with the ladies. In fact I think he was meant to be. He was a leader, warrior and singer. That's maiden-bait if I've ever seen it. B):wub:

HA! Very true. As Ygritte says, it's all in where you're standing. Bael clearly cast himself as a lover in his songs.

But again--there's gotta be a reason Martin had Ygritte disclaim that, and only that, part of the tale.

And why blue roses in the novels always have a sinister tinge.

And Sansa's reaction to Marillion.

And why Ygritte added the "real" ending to the tale.

Martin's telling us something with all of this context. And it really seems to be that the roses are NOT about love.

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10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Since this is a wrap-up thread, I attempted a little "table" of textual support:


                                                    Rhaegar                    Robert                    Howland                   Arthur                   Mance
visual confirmation                   ----                             ----                            ----                               ----                           ----
personal experience                 ----                     loved Lyanna                ----                               ----                          ----
symbolic depiction              HotU vision                    ----                           ----                                ----                     Bael story
                                           crown of blue roses

                                                 Bael story                                                    
rumours                                        plenty                         ----                           ----                                 ----                          ----
confirmed interaction       HH  crowning                   HH                            HH rescue                  ----                          ----
possible interaction            KotLT search                   ----                   KotLT shenanigans          HH                    HH(if present)
                                                    ToJ*  **                           ----                             ----                               ToJ*                ----

*if the dream sequence placing Lyanna and the KG at the tower is correct
** if the above is correct, then Lyanna is found in the presence of two guys who always accompanied Rhaegar and the third was sent to fetch him, so unless Rhaegar travelled all on his own, they met at some point
 

Another excellent laying out of the case. 

I would add in the "Arthur" column the symbolic connections between Arthur and Jon--Jon's lifelong desire to win his father's greatsword and name. And Jon's epiphany with the Sword of the Morning. And Jon's symbolic connection with swords, wolves, sworn brotherhoods, old gods, and northern kings--no fire dragons.

I would also add the caveat that Martin has made it very clear from the start that what we think happened might not have. Even with witnesses (like Joffrey's death and Sansa and Tyrion's "role" in it). Even with "general knowledge." And that all kinds of things can happen that people don't end up learning the truth about in world.

That even when the preponderance of evidence points one way, that's not the right answer in Martinlandia.

IE: the death of Jon Arryn. Both readers and people in world interpreted that as Cersei and Jaime's killing Arryn. We only learn the truth at the end of the third book. But when we go back and reread, the vast preponderance of the evidence still points to Cersei and Jaime. Even when we know the truth.

And that lie was not only Martin's manipulation of readers. It was Baelish's in-world manipulation to bring about chaos to serve his own ends.

So: we know Martin will manipulate us with a preponderance of wrong evidence.

And we know that around the time of Robert's Rebellion, Tywin was a plotter who had a track record of manipulating things in world to achieve his ends. Even using rebellions to get what he wants.

Seems like we should be wary of "preponderances of evidence" that Rhaegar took/eloped with Lyanna. Especially in a text where we have never, ever been given any account of it. 

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

What Edric tells Arya is that he and Jon were milk-brothers.  Arya then jumps to the conclusion that Wylla the wet nurse was Jon's mother along with a lot of denial and anger that her dad could have dishonored her mother this way.

Arya was lost. “Who’s Wylla?”
“Jon Snow’s mother. He never told you? She’s served us for years and years. Since before I was born.”

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Edric then clams up saying that maybe he shouldn't have said anything.  Arya completely misses the part where Edric tells her that Ashara was in love with Ned according to his Aunt, Ashara's sister. 

She doesn't, it is the part that upset her.

“Your lord father never spoke of her?” he said. “The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?”
“No. Did he know her?”
“Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring.”
“Oh.” Arya did not know what else to say. “Why did she jump in the sea, though?”
“Her heart was broken.”
Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid. She couldn’t say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. “Did someone break it?”
He hesitated. “Perhaps it’s not my place...”
“Tell me.”
He looked at her uncomfortably. “My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal -”
“That’s not so. He loved my lady mother.”
“I’m sure he did, my lady, but -”
“She was the only one he loved.”

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

He doesn't finish telling her what he knows.  Then Harlan also tries to shutdown the conversation; telling Arya it might or might not be true; but so what, nobody was betrothed at that point and this sort of thing happens at Tourneys; so there is no stain on her father's name. He said he heard the story as a boy at Winterfell.  Then he tells her to let the dead lie and not to bring it up with Catelyn when they get to Riverrun.  This suggests to me that Harlan knows the whole story directly from Edric and not just by rumor when he was a boy.

He says actually both:

“Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It’s an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now.”

I do not see why he should be lying, we know from Cat's PoV that the gossip of Ashara Dayne did indeed circulate at Winterfell.

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

We get Ned using Wylla when Robert questions him about his bastard as a deflection.  He is sticking with the lie so Robert will not question him even further.  Bedding a serving girl or a maid is not something that Robert would think twice about.   Ned is protecting someone with the lie.  Bran brings up that very question: Is it sometimes OK to lie if it's for a good reason.

Agreed. We see Ned lie to protect Cat and Sansa, respectively.

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

We have several instances instory where the rumor of someone's death is used to hide the person who is supposed to be dead to the world.  This come up with Bran when Sam takes an oath three times not to tell anyone that Bran is alive.  Coldhands says he doesn't want anyone to come looking for him.  The second example is Sandor Clegane.  Elder Brother tells Brienne that he buried the hound himself when she tells him that she is looking for him.  Sandor is now the gravedigger on the Quiet Isle; it was the death of his identity; the hound no longer exists.

So we have Ashara Dayne rumored to have jumped off a cliff although her body was never found.  Her death must be at least one of the secrets that Ned is keeping since rumor has it that he went to Starfall to return the Dawn Sword.  At some point, Ned returns with Jon who can be tentatively placed at Starfall if Wyla the nursemaid is in service to the Daynes.  If Jon is Ned and Ashara's son; it's a pretty good reason not to disclose that to Robert or anyone else if she has been disappeared for a purpose.

Well... we don't know if Ashara killed herself during his visit or afterwards. And I can't imagine a reason which would make her abandon her own baby and fake suicide.

47 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Any chance you have the link to this? I've never seen an SSM on this.

In one of the relatively recent threads, the source was shown as from the very early days of the forums, with Ran vouching for the veritability of the source.

25 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

IE: the death of Jon Arryn. Both readers and people in world interpreted that as Cersei and Jaime's killing Arryn. We only learn the truth at the end of the third book. But when we go back and reread, the vast preponderance of the evidence still points to Cersei and Jaime. Even when we know the truth.

Oh? Well, on the re-reads I see why it was easy to see Jaime and Cersei as guilty, as well as the underlying clues towards LF playing a foul game. And LF's lie about the dagger is there from the very beginning, so is Lysa suspiciously changing the story. We only don't know the reason yet.

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13 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Seems like we should be wary of "preponderances of evidence" that Rhaegar took/eloped with Lyanna. Especially in a text where we have never, ever been given any account of it. 

Of course we have no first hand account of the "kidnapping." That would be giving away the mystery. That doesn't mean all sides of the rebellion don't agree on the simple fact Rhaegar took Lyanna. They certainly disagree on what that act was - kidnapping, escape, elopement, etc. - but everyone in world agrees who the two main players in the drama are. When even have a scholarly recounting of the event saying,

Quote

Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved - and half the realm besides. (TWoI&F 127) bold emphasis added.

This is written for Robert's benefit and it confirms just what Robert thinks, but it also speaks to what is universally accepted that it was Rhaegar who ran away with Lyanna. The Targaryen family account agrees that is was Rhaegar who took Lyanna:

Quote

If he loved you, he would come and carry you off at swordpoint, as Rhaegar carried off his northern girl. (ADwD 577) bold emphasis added

 

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10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That's why I included the third option, as well. I did exclude options like "Lyanna seduced Rhaegar as a part of some scheme / used him to sate her sexual needs" etc., which have no textual support nor any narrative reason.

Singers simplify the whole war as some sort of Helen scenario, which was not the case. And unlike the singers, Viserys and Barristan at least had contact with the source.

It's still association between Lyanna and blue roses, whichever way you turn it. What I was offering was an interpretation why the memory made Ned want to cry. Sure, Robert dooming his marriage because of whispering a dead girl's name is tragic, but it doesn't explain why Ned should think about blue roses instead of something more explicit.

Whoah, sure it does. The use of thorns in symbolism is not restricted to that of shame. 

GRRM said it was Lyanna, just as he confirmed that Brienne said "sword".

Plus, if someone murmurs something you don't understand, there is no way you can deduce it was a woman's name. The whole paragraph of the visions uses more generic terms instead of specific descriptions, even though Dany knows what she saw - a stone beast (she would know what it looked like), a blue flower (later specified as a rose), a woman's name. She knows what name it was.

 

And what would Arryn, or anyone else, blab that would make Ned think of Rhaegar? As in, not just be reminded of him, but accessing his memories way more thoroughly than he had in years, to form a conclusion? What secret did Rhaegar have that Ned bothers fourteen years later? It is still the same problem - why should Ned start thinking about Rhaegar at all.

1.This is still...No. What Robert may or may not have thought has nothing to do with what we are trying to prove.That is love.Thus far you haven't.You haven't even come close.You gave me a rumor based on the crowning and what people believe that means which we know from this story may have nothing to do with love.

2 That's untrue...Singers don't simplyfy anything create stories that they believe will be epic.Void of any facts and just rumors.Plus you keep bringing up what dead Viserys might have known and told Dany.

                          a.He didn't know anything beyond the singers tale and he didn't tell Dany any details else she would be asking Barristan why her brother did what he did.:rolleyes:

                           b.Barristan doesn't know anything because Rhaegar didn't tell him anything else he wouldn't have told Dany "He can't speak for what might have been in Rhaegar's heart.Maybe he thought it was love but that's the point.Its a guess.He didn't get this info from the source.Come on Ygrain.

3.Ygrain,i'm not arguing with you that its an association with the roses,but what is the association.This is the type of sweeping remarks i'm speaking of with you guys.How is the rose associated with Lyanna? When Ned thinks about it afterwards why is it excluding of Rhaegar? Ned is focusing on the roses itself and in the text i gave you we see a direct correlation.It not so much who gave Lyanna the roses,it's what the roses themselves meant.And Winter roses are directly tied to the deflowering of a Stark maiden.

4.Never said it was "restricted" to that shame.I'm telling you what it means...It mean "Mockery"

5.You need to,for posterity and reference post that text,interview,entry of GRRM saying that Lyanna was the name(if there was a name uttered at all)Rhaegar said when he died in Trident.

6.I'm trying to...Oh dear. This is what i'm saying if someone murmurs you can't hear or understand what is being said.Dany has been told a story by Viserys that Rhaegar died on the Trident for the woman he loves.The fapp has a Maester telling a story with details they couldn't possibly logically have known given Rhaegar's state when dying and the chaotic environment they were in.This is a culture that lives and embraces the epic.The songs are never what they are and when you look at it logically it couldn't be.So based on the stories told to her it is likely Dany hearing Rhaegar murmur turned it into a woman's name to complete the story she was told.

7.Because Rhaegar blabbed about something he shouldn't have blabbed about and that led to "HIS" death.What he blabbed about...Let's go back to the crowning....."Lyanna being deflowered" To onlookers it would have been seen as a romantic gesture and dissing his wife.The Starks however.....Different story,it meant something different to them.

10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Don't be ridiculous. In his inner monologue, he is far more outspoken, so does he have a multiple personality disorder now? Or is Aerys charming now because Barristan said so? 

Except that at the point when he becomes Jon's guardian, your reasoning doesn't apply yet. Cersei and Robert married in 284.

Ygrain,Barraistan's inner dialogue supports him knowing what everyone "thought" they knew.If he knew anything he would have known this war wasn't about Lyanna.

10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Since this is a wrap-up thread, I attempted a little "table" of textual support:


                                                    Rhaegar                    Robert                    Howland                   Arthur                   Mance
visual confirmation                   ----                             ----                            ----                               ----                           ----
personal experience                 ----                     loved Lyanna                ----                               ----                          ----
symbolic depiction              HotU vision                    ----                           ----                                ----                     Bael story
                                           crown of blue roses

                                                 Bael story                                                    
rumours                                        plenty                         ----                           ----                                 ----                          ----
confirmed interaction       HH  crowning                   HH                            HH rescue                  ----                          ----
possible interaction            KotLT search                   ----                   KotLT shenanigans          HH                    HH(if present)
                                                    ToJ*  **                           ----                             ----                               ToJ*                ----

*if the dream sequence placing Lyanna and the KG at the tower is correct
** if the above is correct, then Lyanna is found in the presence of two guys who always accompanied Rhaegar and the third was sent to fetch him, so unless Rhaegar travelled all on his own, they met at some point
 

Ygrain this table is utter and total "kaka" it totally ignores emotinal evidence,it totally ignores critical thinking when it comes to interaction between individual....

Are you telling me that from the time Ned left to be fostered in the Vale he only saw Lyanna 3 times.

1.The night of the bethrothal

2.Harrenhall

3.Deathbed 

Are you serious. GRRM doesn't need to give a blow by blow of peoples relationship to indicate there was one.

The Bael story which we will discuss when it comes to symbolism is NOT a love story nor is Bael really Bael in the tale.Not to mention we have precedence where the person who did the crowning had no interest in the QOLAB(Sansa and Loras) or the QOLAB has no interest in the person who viewed themselves a champion (Baelish and Cat)

And what is THOTU vision that you keep referencing doesn't take into consideration that Dany is superimposing what Viserys told her....Rhaegar could have murmured anything and Dany thought it was a woman's name because that was what the Maester wrote right?And he can't have known that unless he skinchanged a fish swimming in the Trident.

I'm sorry hun but this is laughable come on!!!!

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9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

In one of the relatively recent threads, the source was shown as from the very early days of the forums, with Ran vouching for the veritability of the source.

@Ran--I looked for this and couldn't find it--an SSM confirming that Martin confirmed that the woman's name dying Rhaegar said was Lyanna's.. Any chance you have it?

Quote

Oh? Well, on the re-reads I see why it was easy to see Jaime and Cersei as guilty, as well as the underlying clues towards LF playing a foul game. And LF's lie about the dagger is there from the very beginning, so is Lysa suspiciously changing the story. We only don't know the reason yet.

Exactly my point. Once we know it was Lysa and Baelish, finding the underlying clues is not hard.

But the evidence for Jaime and Cersei is all still valid and obvious. Only a very few--Baelish, Lysa (now dead) Marillion (now dead) and Sansa know the actual truth.

And as you say--the Baelish lies are implied early on. Martin has also laid evidence about Tywin's lies and manipulations from the time of the Rebellion, both in the novels and even more explicitly in the World Book. The three knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree are all from houses that are Tywin's lackeys. 

So, just as he lay the groundwork for Baelish while making the "Cersei-Jaime" angle more obvious, Martin has laid groundwork over multiple texts for Tywin's plotting round the Rebellion. And refused to give us clear evidence of Lyanna's elopement or abduction. 

No way on earth to confirm that Martin will use a similar method with Lyanna's disappearance as he did with Jon Arryn. But he has laid the groundwork for it.

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7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Of course we have no first hand account of the "kidnapping." That would be giving away the mystery. That doesn't mean all sides of the rebellion don't agree on the simple fact Rhaegar took Lyanna. They certainly disagree on what that act was - kidnapping, escape, elopement, etc. - but everyone in world agrees who the two main players in the drama are. When even have a scholarly recounting of the event saying,

What mystery everyone "knew" Rhaegar took her from the get there's no mystery there.The mystery would be if he didn't.

9 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

This is written for Robert's benefit and it confirms just what Robert thinks, but it also speaks to what is universally accepted that it was Rhaegar who ran away with Lyanna. The Targaryen family account agrees that is was Rhaegar who took Lyanna:

This isn't written for Robert's benefit,this is what he thought because he was led to believe this is what happened.And again what is universally accepted isn't always true.These people all of them were led to think this what happened because it would make for an epic tale.If its one thing we know in this story is many times over what is wildely accepted isn't the truth.I have asked this over and over and i'm asking you again.

1.Where is Arya? Is she in Braavos of is she currently married to Ramsey Bolton.

2.Who killed Joffrey? Is is Tyrion with the aid of Sansa or was it the Queen of thorns.

3. Ned went to his grave believing the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn.Stannis still believes that the Lannisted killed JA.This is the kind of story GRRM has built.

He has given us info that raises doubt that Rhaegar took Lyanna or they ran off together:Somebody wanted it to look as if Rhaegar took Lyanna.More importantly they wanted Brandon to overreact and he did.

“And then there are some things that just don’t square with history. In some sense I’m trying to respond to that. [For example] the arranged marriage, which you see constantly in the historical fiction and television show, almost always when there’s an arranged marriage, the girl doesn’t want it and rejects it and she runs off with  the stable boy instead. This never fucking happened. It just didn’t. There were thousands, tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of arranged marriages in the nobility through the thousand years of Middle Ages and people went through with them. That’s how you did it. It wasn’t questioned. Yeah, occasionally you would want someone else, but you wouldn’t run off with the stable boy………”

“And that’s another of my pet peeves about fantasies. The bad authors adopt the class structures of the middle Ages<snip>they have scenes where the spunky peasant girl tells off the pretty prince. The pretty prince would have raped the spunky peasant girl. He would have put her in the stocks and then had garbage thrown at her. You know. I mean, the class structures in places like this had teeth. They had consequences. And people were brought up from their childhood to know their place and to know that duties of their class and the privileges of their class. It was always a source of friction when someone got outside of that thing. And I tried to reflect that.”GRRM.

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2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

This is one of those times we could really use Ned’s journal. This is possible. But as I said above, he is connecting silencing talk of Ashara with silencing talk of Jon’s origins.

Unless Ashara is Jon’s mother (which I doubt), the question remains: what’s the connection? Ned silences talk of Ashara AND mourns Arthur—the Dayne connection matters. 

I go back and forth on Ned+Ahsara or Arthur+Lyanna because the Dayne bloodline does matter.  In the end everything comes down to the bloodlines that leads to AA or PwP.  I have no doubt that Dany is Rhaegar+Ashara.  I'd go so far as to say that Dany fits the bill for PwP.  I think Rhaegar gets it wrong when he says that he already has a song in Dany's HoU vision.

For all intents and purposes, Dany is the crone who carries a lantern.  The one who brings the light or lights the way.  When Drogo died she became a crone but she didn't go directly to Vaes Dothrak.  Dany also gets it wrong when Quaithe tells her that she must pass beneath the shadow to touch the light.  She jumps to the conclusion that Quaithe is talking about Asshai when she is talking about the shadow beneath the mother of mountains.  This ties in with another HoU vision; that of the line of crones coming out of a lake to kneel before her; representing the generations of crones who came before her.  Quaithe also instructs her to travel east to go west.  In other words, travel eastward continually across the Sunset Sea until she reaches Westeros.  Then travel south to go north.  Begin at Starfall and travel north to the Wall and I won't be surprised if she delivers the dawn sword to Jon.

Since Rhaegar implies that another son is required; the ice and fire combo we all expect is Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon.  If the assumption is that Ned found Lyanna at the ToJ or thereabouts and that she had recently given birth to a son; then this boy can't be Jon.  The boy must be Aegon and my assumption is that Ashara's disappearance is related to Lyanna extracting a pledge to protect the boy and Ashara who takes him across the sea into hiding.  The boy who dies his hair blue to honor his mother.  There are plenty of reasons to get out of town.  The fact that Ned is spotted with a common woman at the Sisters and sends her off overseas with a bag of silver creates some rumor and speculation. But this is where Ashara gets off the trail. 

That leaves Jon and I do think he is Lyanna's but I don't think he's Rhaegar's. Otherwise Varys would have grabbed him long ago.  There is another ancient bloodline that has gone under the radar and that's the Gardener bloodline; to which the Baratheon's can make a claim. It's no coincidence that the Red Lot send someone to Stannis and Robert.  They expect AA to show up in this bloodline.  Melisandre also gets it wrong.  She keeps asking to see R'hllor's instrument Stannis; but Jon keep showing up in her fires.  She dismisses it because she doesn't know about Robert and Lyanna.

There are any number of reasons why Ned would keep quiet about Ashara, Jon and Aegon if he has undertaken a pledge to protect all three.  This is a theme that runs throughout his narrative and the reason why Jon Arryn went to war.

Some interesting stuff about the Gardeners from wiki:

Ned's curious statement: Let them be brothers.

When a wolf descends upon your flocks, all you gain by killing him is a short respite, for other wolves will come. If instead you feed the wolf and tame him and turn his pups into your guard dogs, they will protect the flock when the pack comes ravening. - King Garth IX Gardener.

They gave us seven gods, we gave them dirt and daughters, and our sons and grandsons shall be as brothers.[1] - King Gwayne V Gardener.

awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Three_Sage_Kings

There are plenty of corollaries to connect the Gardener bloodline to the story; including the crown of roses; the morningstar and the CotF.

The question in my mind is when and why does Lyanna disappear.  Where does she go.  We have Ned's curious statement in the crypts: Lyanna was ... (pause) fond of flowers.  Flowers is a bastard name and the Maester Walys was a Flowers who disappeared with her around the same time. 

We have the Quiet Isle; a place where noble ladies sometimes stay if they are injured or require medical assistance.  A place of salt and smoke.

And finally, we have GRRM name dropping Wylas all over the place; at Castle Wyl and Ned's curious statement about trusting a child to a pit viper before he'd trust Tywin Lannister. 

During the final stage of the Conquest of Dorne, when Daeron I Targaryen was attacked and killed under the pretext of a peace banner and Prince Aemon Targaryen was imprisoned by the Wyls.[7] Lord Wyl refused to free Aemon, when Baelor came to Dorne seeking peace. Baelor returned with the Prince of Dorne's acceptance for Aemon's release and Lord Wyl relented. However, instead of freeing Aemon himself, he gave Baelor the key to Aemon's cage and an invitation to use it. However, Aemon was now trapped inside a cage, naked and exposed to the elements. Below the cage, a pit had been dug and filled with many vipers. Baelor entered the pit and opened the cage, getting bitten by the vipers in the process. The Dragonknight was able thrust the door and and pull his cousin from the pit. The Wyls are said to have laid wagers as Prince Aemon struggled to climb out of the pit with his cousin flung across his back - wiki    

 

ETA:  Why does Ned have so much respect for Arthur Dayne?  Because all boys have their heros.  

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