Heresy 193 Winterfell

[Brad Stark]

Ned is a least a little familiar with the wolves, as he is perfectly comfortable giving horse sized carnivores to little children. 

[Black Crow]

24 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Is it overly simplistic and cynical to just conclude that the reason there are so many Stark wargs in the current generation is because that's what worked for the story that the author wanted to tell, rather than because of some deeper in-world reason involving maternal bloodlines and whatnot? It seems a bit like watching a Star Wars movie, and trying to treat the number of notable members in the Skywalker family as some grand mystery that is meant to be solved, rather than as a storytelling conceit.

I don't think its cynical at all, because that's exactly the story he wanted to tell and had the common decency to provide a reason why there should suddenly be so many by using the direwolves to trigger and explain it. At the same time that also meant there was no need to launch into long, involved and ultimately tedious explanations involving Great Aunt Jemima or whoever. The kids were normal, then along came the direwolves sent by the Old Gods and they started to become wargs. That's simple and straightforward enough - but still leaves us with the more important question of who really sent them.

[Black Crow]

15 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Ned is a least a little familiar with the wolves, as he is perfectly comfortable giving horse sized carnivores to little children. 

Only up to a point. There was an awful lot of low muttering and significant looks. While he obviously gave the go-ahead, I'd say that "comfortable" is the last word I'd use to describe his feelings.

[LmL]

17 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think its cynical at all, because that's exactly the story he wanted to tell and had the common decency to provide a reason why there should suddenly be so many by using the direwolves to trigger and explain it. At the same time that also meant there was no need to launch into long, involved and ultimately tedious explanations involving Great Aunt Jemima or whoever. The kids were normal, then along came the direwolves sent by the Old Gods and they started to become wargs. That's simple and straightforward enough - but still leaves us with the more important question of who really sent them.

Thanks for rephrasing my thought much better than I expressed originally, Black Crow. @Matthew., I might have given you the wring idea. BC hit it on the head - if he needs 6 wargs all at once, he would surely think of a decent, plausible reason to explain it. His worldbuilding is not as threadbare as Star Wars by any means. It's pretty simple to intuit that the Starks have warg genes in their bloodline in some sense, and that the direwolves awakened this power. I don't think it has to much more complex than that. 

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think its cynical at all, because that's exactly the story he wanted to tell and had the common decency to provide a reason why there should suddenly be so many by using the direwolves to trigger and explain it. At the same time that also meant there was no need to launch into long, involved and ultimately tedious explanations involving Great Aunt Jemima or whoever. The kids were normal, then along came the direwolves sent by the Old Gods and they started to become wargs. That's simple and straightforward enough - but still leaves us with the more important question of who really sent them.

Just as an addition, I should make it clear that I'm not dismissing the idea of there being plot relevance to House Stark's magic; my take away was that we're supposed to read House Stark's bloodline as being "more magical" than other bloodlines, even ancient FM bloodlines, yet the direwolves were necessary to reawaken their magic in the current age.

In that regard, I agree with Brad Stark that we are meant to infer from the statues in the crypts that the ancient Kings of Winter were all wargs as well.

Put more succinctly, I'm not saying that House Stark defying those 1 in 1000 odds isn't noteworthy, just that it's probably fruitless to try explain the mechanics of that magic--Martin doesn't like magic that can be explained, or follows a "system," so it's very likely that the answers that some people are pursuing do not exist, even in the author's head.

[Matthew.]

11 minutes ago, LmL said:

...if he needs 6 wargs all at once, he would surely think of a decent, plausible reason to explain it. His worldbuilding is not as threadbare as Star Wars by any means.

I don't know that this is entirely accurate. If you read through Martin's own discussions of the genesis of ASOIAF, as well as his philosophy as a writer, the whole story started when he had the sudden inspiration for the chapter that would eventually become Bran I in aGoT--he had the idea of the direwolf mother and her pups and their destined connection with the Starks well before he developed the surrounding plot, and definitely before any worldbuilding that would explain why some people are born wargs, and some aren't.

How the magic works is not an important question--the magic "works" however Martin needs it to work at a given moment.

[LmL]

11 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I don't know that this is entirely accurate. If you read through Martin's own discussions of the genesis of ASOIAF, as well as his philosophy as a writer, the whole story started when he had the sudden inspiration for the chapter that would eventually become Bran I in aGoT--he had the idea of the direwolf mother and her pups and their destined connection with the Starks well before he developed the surrounding plot, and definitely before any worldbuilding that would explain why some people are born wargs, and some aren't.

 

I would disagree with this, because Martin was already working on his worldbuilding ideas in all his previous stories. Many of them have mythical astronomy, the idea of ice demons that are like cold vampires, blue roses, comets and gods with stars for eyes - all of these ideas were in incubation. I am not saying ASOIAF is part of his sci-fi universe, just that he didn't whip ASOIAF out of thin air. 

By the time he released AGOT, he had brainstormed a lot more than that one scene, obviously. 

11 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

How the magic works is not an important question--the magic "works" however Martin needs it to work at a given moment.

Many people would disagree, or at least think you are overstating. We know that Martin does not have a Sanderson-esque scientific like magic system, no. That doesn't mean it has no consistency though. 

[Matthew.]

20 minutes ago, LmL said:

Many people would disagree, or at least think you are overstating. We know that Martin does not have a Sanderson-esque scientific like magic system, no. That doesn't mean it has no consistency though. 

I'm not saying the magic is wholly mysterious and chaotic, but the author leaves it loose enough to give himself wiggle room--the more "rules" the magic must be consistent with, the harder it is to employ his gardener tendencies.

From my perspective, though, the way the magic works doesn't need to be that plausible or logical. For example, I'm content to say that House Stark is beating the 1-in-1000 odds because they're the Kings of Winter and inherently more important to the story of the Others (whatever that story turns out to be); I don't need to know who Rickon's great great grandmother was to find it plausible that both he and Sansa were born wargs in the same generation.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Is it overly simplistic and cynical to just conclude that the reason there are so many Stark wargs in the current generation is because that's what worked for the story that the author wanted to tell, rather than because of some deeper in-world reason involving maternal bloodlines and whatnot? It seems a bit like watching a Star Wars movie, and trying to treat the number of notable members in the Skywalker family as some grand mystery that is meant to be solved, rather than as a storytelling conceit.

Well the Star Wars mystery was solved, Darth Vader had a ton of midichlorians which were obviously passed down as a dominant genetic trait to his twin children from his non-midichlorian wife.  

[Brad Stark]

It was only subtley implied in episode 3, but Anakin was bioengineered by Darth Plauguis to be a powerful force user to replace Palpatine.  That is why he had no father and was so powerful.

I think GRRM works in the same way.  Just because he won't give us detailed rules about magic doesn't mean he doesn't have rules himself.   And as much effort as he puts into history and bloodlines, I bet we see an explanation why the Starks have wolves.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

The Starks of old wed the wolves and wed the trees? At one time they attempted to conquer the old powers then later assimilated? Or visa versa, depending on the true timeline of the Long Night, the Night's King and the Watch & Winterfell. 

I think that Bael reinforced the Stark bloodline to bring back the connection with the old powers. He brought back the magic to Winterfell, so to speak. 

[Black Crow]

10 hours ago, LmL said:

I would disagree with this, because Martin was already working on his worldbuilding ideas in all his previous stories. Many of them have mythical astronomy, the idea of ice demons that are like cold vampires, blue roses, comets and gods with stars for eyes - all of these ideas were in incubation. I am not saying ASOIAF is part of his sci-fi universe, just that he didn't whip ASOIAF out of thin air. 

By the time he released AGOT, he had brainstormed a lot more than that one scene, obviously. 

I think that it would be more accurate to say that he had been working on all of these ideas before [not forgetting the Ice Dragon] and the forest scene provided him with the opportunity to weave them together, or rather they were sitting ready to use when he was looking at where to take the scene. It just grewed a bit.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, aDanceWithFlagons said:

I think that Bael reinforced the Stark bloodline to bring back the connection with the old powers. He brought back the magic to Winterfell, so to speak. 

Nearly, but not quite. The point of the story was that there was no Stark heir, the family was about to die out when along came Bael and provided the boy to keep it all going.

[Melifeather]

16 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Ned is a least a little familiar with the wolves, as he is perfectly comfortable giving horse sized carnivores to little children. 

 

I'm comfortable with the idea that all Starks are born with genes that can be awoken if they are bonded to a direwolf. Is it really any different than the Targaryen ability to bond with dragons?

[Black Crow]

Just a couple of observations on this business of the children of Winterfell being meant to have the direwolves, ie; who sent them and why:

First the inclusion of Jon, albeit with a different one. suggests that the "blood" required is Stark blood rather than any mysterious combination of Stark and Tully blood. Most of them are the children of Catelyn Tully; but Jon has no connection with Catelyn Tully. The only point of commonality is that they are the children of Eddard Stark and he is the child of Lyanna Stark

[and to disgress slightly the Stark blood comes through that Lord Brandon's daughter rather than Rhaegar Bael - both of whom were in the end just ballad singers rather than players]

Secondly, and be that as it may, we assume that because the direwolves were sent, it was part of a plan. Is that plan still unfolding or is it in tatters after what has happened so far - the objectives are presumably still there but are things happening to try and get it back on track. It is a game after all.

[JNR]

The World book is a dubious source of information in general, but it does provide at least a mythological hint of the ancient point at which skinchanging came into the Stark line:

Quote

Chronicles found in the archives of the Night's Watch at the Nightfort (before it was abandoned) speak of the war for Sea Dragon Point, wherein the Starks brought down the Warg King and his inhuman allies, the children of the forest. When the Warg King's last redoubt fell, his sons were put to the sword, along with his beasts and greenseers, whilst his daughters were taken as prizes by their conquerors.

Since the Starks were the conquerors, this seems very suggestive.

I should add the canon, and I think the World book too, are much more accurate about the term "warg" than the show or the forums.  

The show and the forums use it to mean skinchanging in general, as both a noun and a verb.  (The show actually has Meera shrieking "Warg into Hodor!!" when Bloodraven's cave is invaded.)

But the canon and the World book use it only as a noun, and only to mean someone who has the power of skinchanging wolves.  So the Warg King was someone very skilled at skinchanging wolves, and if his daughters inherited the talent, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

[ravenous reader]

On 1/6/2017 at 4:09 AM, Voice said:

 

No it's strange.

If we look at all that Bloodraven said, then yes, 6 wargs in a single family is quite unique. I did the math at the Hearth recently:

 

In asoiaf, weirwood influences seem far less widespread, far more subtle, and far more selective. 

Rather than inhabit the minds of everyone in proximity, a weirwood must be wed by one with the gift. And one with the gift is incredibly rare. 
 

 

That provides us with some easy math. 

Skinchanger:Population
1:1000

= 0.1% of men are skinchangers. 

Greenseer:Skinchanger-Population
1:1000

= 0.1% of skinchangers are greenseers.

Thus, if we apply these porportions to how many men can be greenseers, we get:

Greenseer:Population
1:1,000,000

= 0.0001 % of men are greenseers.

That's one ten-thousanth of one percent of the population who are greenseers.

[side note: this ratio may mean that the population of Westeros is between 1 and 2 million people, as it currently yields between 1 and 2 greenseers] 

For someone as logical as yourself, you sure are willing to entertain some zany theories!  

I agree; it would seem being a greenseer is extremely rare.  EXCEPT...

Quote

except....

We have a GINORMOUS concentration of this influence in the current generation of youngsters from Winterfell. 6/6 are wargs, to varying degrees. Of the six, at least one is a bona fide greenseer. That's pretty damned impressive. 

Considering only two Starks in the previous generation were even said to have "wolf-blood" then that certainy seems to suggest something occurred in the current generation to increase this concentration. 

 

So, while we're interpreting this in genetic terms, you're saying something occurred -- some kind of environmental factor serving to impact the phenotypic expression and therefore accounting for variation in 'penetrance' of that possibly latent genetic trait.  Bloodraven said 'your blood makes you a greenseer' -- logically, other Starks share the same blood, particularly in more concentrated form than might be expected since there's been some cousin-on-cousin marriage with ensuing progeny, not so?  So I don't see why others possessed of 'Stark blood' and therefore this genetic complement couldn't be carrying the 'greenseer gene', just with variable expression thereof.  

Now -- for whatever reason -- there's been some kind of environmental boost causing an upsurge in expression of all types of magic.  In Essos as well as Westeros:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys V

Dany had laughed when he told her. "Was it not you who told me warlocks were no more than old soldiers, vainly boasting of forgotten deeds and lost prowess?"

Xaro looked troubled. "And so it was, then. But now? I am less certain. It is said that the glass candles are burning in the house of Urrathon Night-Walker, that have not burned in a hundred years. Ghost grass grows in the Garden of Gehane, phantom tortoises have been seen carrying messages between the windowless houses on Warlock's Way, and all the rats in the city are chewing off their tails. The wife of Mathos Mallarawan, who once mocked a warlock's drab moth-eaten robe, has gone mad and will wear no clothes at all. Even fresh-washed silks make her feel as though a thousand insects were crawling on her skin. And Blind Sybassion the Eater of Eyes can see again, or so his slaves do swear. A man must wonder." He sighed. "These are strange times in Qarth. And strange times are bad for trade. It grieves me to say so, yet it might be best if you left Qarth entirely, and sooner rather than later." Xaro stroked her fingers reassuringly. "You need not go alone, though. You have seen dark visions in the Palace of Dust, but Xaro has dreamed brighter dreams. I see you happily abed, with our child at your breast. Sail with me around the Jade Sea, and we can yet make it so! It is not too late. Give me a son, my sweet song of joy!"

Luwin was right about the rise-and-fall periodicity of all things in history -- although he was wrong in his assessment about the particular phase of magic prevalent in the world of 'planetos' (I hate that word!) at present: magic is waxing exponentially, not waning at all:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Bran IV

"Sometimes it does," Bran protested. "I had that dream, and Rickon did too. And there are mages and warlocks in the east . . ."

"There are men who call themselves mages and warlocks," Maester Luwin said. "I had a friend at the Citadel who could pull a rose out of your ear, but he was no more magical than I was. Oh, to be sure, there is much we do not understand. The years pass in their hundreds and their thousands, and what does any man see of life but a few summers, a few winters? We look at mountains and call them eternal, and so they seem . . . but in the course of time, mountains rise and fall, rivers change their courses, stars fall from the sky, and great cities sink beneath the sea. Even gods die, we think. Everything changes.

"Perhaps magic was once a mighty force in the world, but no longer. What little remains is no more than the wisp of smoke that lingers in the air after a great fire has burned out, and even that is fading. Valyria was the last ember, and Valyria is gone. The dragons are no more, the giants are dead, the children of the forest forgotten with all their lore.

So, perhaps instead of focusing exclusively on Starks, we ought to ask ourselves why all magic is on the rise and not dwindling, as Luwin asserts.

16 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I'm not saying the magic is wholly mysterious and chaotic, but the author leaves it loose enough to give himself wiggle room--the more "rules" the magic must be consistent with, the harder it is to employ his gardener tendencies.

Very good point!

16 hours ago, Matthew. said:

From my perspective, though, the way the magic works doesn't need to be that plausible or logical. For example, I'm content to say that House Stark is beating the 1-in-1000 odds because they're the Kings of Winter and inherently more important to the story of the Others (whatever that story turns out to be); I don't need to know who Rickon's great great grandmother was to find it plausible that both he and Sansa were born wargs in the same generation.

Agreed.  As I argued above, there's a global phenomenon at work whereby there's an explosion of magic in general, not exclusively focused on Starks, anyway.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

I'm comfortable with the idea that all Starks are born with genes that can be awoken if they are bonded to a direwolf. Is it really any different than the Targaryen ability to bond with dragons?

I think the main difference is that we don't know that the Starks practiced incest like the Targaryens did.  The Targaryens at some time in their history believed that in order to keep their bloodline pure they needed to marry brother to sister.  My guess is this was to keep their links to their dragons in their bloodlines.  We don't know if the Starks historically did this.  Now we did get a little snippet of the Starks family tree in  the Worldbook and it does seem that there may be a practice of marrying a first cousin back into the main line.  This could be a clue that the Starks did have a bloodline they wanted to keep close to the vest.

 

49 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Just a couple of observations on this business of the children of Winterfell being meant to have the direwolves, ie; who sent them and why:

First the inclusion of Jon, albeit with a different one. suggests that the "blood" required is Stark blood rather than any mysterious combination of Stark and Tully blood. Most of them are the children of Catelyn Tully; but Jon has no connection with Catelyn Tully. The only point of commonality is that they are the children of Eddard Stark and he is the child of Lyanna Stark

[and to disgress slightly the Stark blood comes through that Lord Brandon's daughter rather than Rhaegar Bael - both of whom were in the end just ballad singers rather than players]

Secondly, and be that as it may, we assume that because the direwolves were sent, it was part of a plan. Is that plan still unfolding or is it in tatters after what has happened so far - the objectives are presumably still there but are things happening to try and get it back on track. It is a game after all.

I don't think it's Cat's Tully bloodline that is important, but perhaps a maternal bloodline.  And my guess is Cat can probably trace her lineage back to the Lothstons and particularly a female Lothston who was known to send giant bats to scoop up naughty children. In fact there is a tale of Sansa as a wolf with bats wings flying off after she slays the good King Joffrey, that may highlight the Maternal/Paternal connection (much less silly than a wolf with a fish in its mouth).  

 I think the common denominator for Jon and his step brothers/sisters could be a Blackwood bloodline, which may be why Bloodraven took a particular interest in Bran, apparently having followed him from birth.  We know that the Starks had a fairly recent Blackwood ancestor, so I wonder if the Cat may have had one too.  I found it interesting that Brandon mentions his uncle Brynden when he meets Brynden Rivers, Bloodraven.  We see it occur on a fairly regular basis that names are given in honor of past ancestors, so it wouldn't surprise me that the Tullys had a Blackwood ancestor as well.

I'm also not sure that Jon's connection with Ghost is the same as his stepbrothers and sisters (at least not Bran and Aryas).  Jon never seems to be the one who initiates the contact.  We know Bran and Arya can do it, and Robb's military victories suggest he may be secretly using a connection with Greywind to help his guerrilla warfare.  Jon hasn't shown that, so I do wonder if Ghost isn't the dominant partner of the two.

[ravenous reader]

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm also not sure that Jon's connection with Ghost is the same as his stepbrothers and sisters (at least not Bran and Aryas).  Jon never seems to be the one who initiates the contact.  We know Bran and Arya can do it, and Robb's military victories suggest he may be secretly using a connection with Greywind to help his guerrilla warfare.  Jon hasn't shown that, so I do wonder if Ghost isn't the dominant partner of the two.

Yes, Ghost is the alpha of the pack and the alpha (and omega) of Jon.  It's significant, in light of what you're saying, that it was Ghost who found Jon, and not vice versa, initiating contact with the 'silent shout', the telepathic communication causing Jon to turn back and 'find' the pup.

[Voice]

On January 6, 2017 at 9:45 AM, Black Crow said:

A splendid bit of math too. I disagree that Jon is being summonsed by his mother I think its something much deeper than that, but you are absolutely right about the rarity of greenseers

Glad you enjoyed the math. I find equations work better with numbers than they do with but 3 variables.  

 

Regarding the summons of Jon Snow...

What is deeper than the roots of a weirwood?

I would argue nothing.

If Lyanna is now a part of that weirwood, she is as deep, as old, and as knowing as that weirwood. 

 

23 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Just an irreverent point which I can't resist.

We've seen that Bran required the weirwood paste [with our without added blood] to begin the induction process as a greenseer.

To become wargs did they need to be licked by their direwolves, ie; did the induction require doggy saliva? 

 

Like @LmL, I dont find this irreverent at all. Quite the contrary. I have oft argued that it is the very birth of the wolf pups that awakened the gift of skinchanging for our children of Winterfell... but I'll come back to that. 

This argument is demonstrated, imo, quite clearly once Gared is beheaded:

Quote

 

"Ass," Jon muttered, low enough so Greyjoy did not hear. He put a hand on Bran's shoulder, and Bran looked over at his bastard brother. "You did well," Jon told him solemnly. Jon was fourteen, an old hand at justice.

It seemed colder on the long ride back to Winterfell, though the wind had died by then and the sun was higher in the sky. Bran rode with his brothers, well ahead of the main party, his pony struggling hard to keep up with their horses.

 

 

Now my old friend, let us not fall into the antler vs dagger debate and instead focus on why Bran feels cold.  

Why would Bran feel colder even though "the wind" had died, and "the sun" was higher in the sky? 

This is a very special Dawn. It is a renaissance for the children of Winterfell. Long before the Volcryn red comet, long before dragons had hatched, long before Mel's talk of great hinges. 

This "Sun" rose as "Wind" died, and Bran feels colder in spite of it. 

Translation?

This "sun" was born with the dead. This has layers upon layers of meaning, for me at least. The sun of winter (see Karstark sigil) has risen. The Son of Winterfell has been awakened... but let us return to the very birth of the wolf pups, and listen to another man...

Quote

"Born with the dead," another man put in. "Worse luck."

 

Worse luck? Or an ancient sort of luck?

I think there is much to be said for being born with the dead. I mean, these pups likely share that "worse luck" with several of our protagonists (Dany, Tyrion, maybe Jon). And each of those protagonists have been able to embody the most foundational qualities of their house in ways previously diluted, extinct, or forgotten. 

In other words, those born with the dead seem to have qualities that were once dead. 

Dany resurrected dragons. Nuff said.

Tyrion is Lann the Clever, reborn.

And Jon ... well, let's just call him a Weirwood Ghost.  

 

So to return to your quick quip BC, I find it quite on the mark. Though I do not attribute the warg-bond to saliva, I do think there exists a quantifiable leap in wolf-pup-behaviors in the children of Winterfell as they ride forth at daybreak to see a man beheaded. Bran is "nervous with excitement", because he is being reborn. 

Ned finds himself reflecting upon the King's Justice because a she-wolf has died from a Stag antler. 

Robb drives Jon Snow away, on his horse. 

Bran feels cold, even though the wind had died and the sun is higher in the sky. 

 

These sons of winter's death are already doing what their pups are doing. 

 

'Worse luck' mayhaps, but luck nonetheless. Although, there is a thin line between luck and fate. I think we both agree with Jon, and believe that luck had nothing to do with it. 

 

Quote

"You have five trueborn children," Jon said. "Three sons, two daughters. The direwolf is the sigil of your House. Your children were meant to have these pups, my lord."  

 

Spoken like a man who might be observant enough to give life to the sigil of his house (like Tyrion the Clever and Dany the Dragon). 

 

20 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Is it overly simplistic and cynical to just conclude that the reason there are so many Stark wargs in the current generation is because that's what worked for the story that the author wanted to tell, rather than because of some deeper in-world reason involving maternal bloodlines and whatnot? It seems a bit like watching a Star Wars movie, and trying to treat the number of notable members in the Skywalker family as some grand mystery that is meant to be solved, rather than as a storytelling conceit.

 

And clearly, in Star Wars, the Skywalker family lineage is quite mysterious for a reason. No?

 

1 hour ago, ravenous reader said:

For someone as logical as yourself, you sure are willing to entertain some zany theories!  

I agree; it would seem being a greenseer is extremely rare.  EXCEPT...

So, while we're interpreting this in genetic terms, you're saying something occurred -- some kind of environmental factor serving to impact the phenotypic expression and therefore accounting for variation in 'penetrance' of that possibly latent genetic trait.  Bloodraven said 'your blood makes you a greenseer' -- logically, other Starks share the same blood, particularly in more concentrated form than might be expected since there's been some cousin-on-cousin marriage with ensuing progeny, not so?  So I don't see why others possessed of 'Stark blood' and therefore this genetic complement couldn't be carrying the 'greenseer gene', just with variable expression thereof.  

Now -- for whatever reason -- there's been some kind of environmental boost causing an upsurge in expression of all types of magic.  In Essos as well as Westeros:

Luwin was right about the rise-and-fall periodicity of all things in history -- although he was wrong in his assessment about the particular phase of magic prevalent in the world of 'planetos' (I hate that word!) at present: magic is waxing exponentially, not waning at all:

So, perhaps instead of focusing exclusively on Starks, we ought to ask ourselves why all magic is on the rise and not dwindling, as Luwin asserts.

Very good point!

Agreed.  As I argued above, there's a global phenomenon at work whereby there's an explosion of magic in general, not exclusively focused on Starks, anyway.

 

I think we're seeing the same manifestation, just a bit differently. As you might see above in my response to BC, I completely agree that an environmental factor caused phenotypical expression of a pre-existing genetic attribute. And luckily, it was an environmental factor that we could name, and run with, and sleep with, and pet. 

Warghood is awakened in the North quite early, and Dragons quite late, in the first book. I think it is the red comet really was Dany's comet. And I think the wolf pups really were meant for the children of Winterfell. 

Where we disagree, I think, is that magic is on the rise everywhere for everyone. It isn't. Quent made the same mistake.

Braavos is still just Braavos, and their Giant is just as still as ever. And while Mel believes she is more powerful at the Wall, she still requires glamours and fire-additives to trick people into believing. 

So I agree that magic is waxing exponentially, but not everywhere. What I see as growing in strength, to that degree and in that way, is Winter. Euron can have his warlock wine. Mel can keep her ruby. The real power is growing like an icy web, and the Needle points to it.