What if Tyrells

[devilish]

21 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Renly has no chance if he makes himself king if he only has the stormlords with him and the Stormlords know that ontop of the fact that he has no claim at all. Stannis on the other hand is the rightful king and he is the best commander and he has a huge fleet.

And what makes you think he would declare himself king after that? Renly isn't the type to throw his life. He'll probably take Joffrey's side in exchange for more lands. That's what a powerful Lord with little chances of getting his hand to the crown would probably act. 

[Trigger Warning]

I am so ready for a 30 page Stannis vs Renly thread. 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

50 minutes ago, devilish said:

And what makes you think he would declare himself king after that? Renly isn't the type to throw his life. He'll probably take Joffrey's side in exchange for more lands. That's what a powerful Lord with little chances of getting his hand to the crown would probably act. 

I dont think he would declare himself king at all instead he would side with Stannis.

[devilish]

4 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

I dont think he would declare himself king at all instead he would side with Stannis.

I don't think that would happen either. He doesn't like Stannis. Instead he'll probably try to milk the situation. If Mace wants the iron throne then he might side with him in exchange of Dragonstone and more lands from Crownlands. Tywin would be desperate for more troops which means he would also grant concessions in exchange for military assistance. Robb on the other hand might agree with Renly's dreams of becoming King IF the Baratheon agrees to leave the North alone. Renly is a seasoned negotiator. Unlike his two brothers he loves the game 

 

4 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

I dont think he would declare himself king at all instead he would side with Stannis.

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

5 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

I dont think he would declare himself king at all instead he would side with Stannis.

If he hadn't declared himself king already, I think this is very likely, particularly if Stannis made the same offer and let Renly be his heir.

5 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

I am so ready for a 30 page Stannis vs Renly thread. 

Look around, look around, at how lucky we are to be alive right now.

[Good Guy Garlan]

9 hours ago, devilish said:

What sort of deal can Renly offer to the Tyrells though? If Mace dig his heels for a crown (either as king of the Reach or King of Westeros), then there's very little Renly could do to convince him otherwise. His army is way smaller then what the Reach can throw at him.

He's better off bending the knee to Joffrey and join forces with him. Joffrey is officially his nephew AND his king and together they might edge it. Joffrey would, of course, be forced to reward him accordingly. I can see him giving him a slice of the Reach, with his grand dad taking another slice and any Reach bannerman who remain loyal to the crown taking the rest. 

What's in it for Mace is a king on the IT willing to respect the sovereignty of the kingdom of the Reach and his daughter as Queen of the other six. If Renly manages to unite the rest of the kingdoms, Mace is screwed. And that's not a farfetched possibly: Robb and Balon crowned themselves but still we're willing to work with Renly and Joffrey respectively.

[devilish]

3 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

What's in it for Mace is a king on the IT willing to respect the sovereignty of the kingdom of the Reach and his daughter as Queen of the other six. If Renly manages to unite the rest of the kingdoms, Mace is screwed. And that's not a farfetched possibly: Robb and Balon crowned themselves but still we're willing to work with Renly and Joffrey respectively.

Joffrey and the Baratheon brothers were never interested in a fragmented kingdom. What could possibly happen is this,

- Robb, Renly and Mace decide to become kings of their respective regions and to help each other carve most of Westeros for themselves. Robb would take the Riverlands (and after Balon's invasion the Iron Islands), Renly would take the crownlands and dragonstone while Mace would take the Westerlands. The Vale and Dorne will remain independent as long as they don't join the fray.

- A series of marriages would secure this alliance. Willas would marry Sansa once KL is secured, Renly would marry Margaery and Desmera Redywne (Willas cousin) will marry Edmure Tully.

 

 

[Trigger Warning]

Renly could still declare himself king and it's likely that some houses from the Reach would abandon Mace in favour of Renly to secure their own advancement within the Reach or potentially become overlord should Renly claim the Iron Throne. 

" “If that is so, why is the Knight of Flowers not among you? And where is Mathis Rowan? Randyll Tarly? Lady Oakheart? Why are they not here in your company, they who loved Renly best?" 

I think this line from ACOK is often overlooked, this suggests that Renly has spent a lot of time establishing himself among the nobility of the Reach and not just among House Tyrell and that the scale of the support he garnered when he declared himself had a lot to do with Renly's other ties in the reach and not just the backing of Mace. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

4 minutes ago, devilish said:

Joffrey and the Baratheon brothers were never interested in a fragmented kingdom. What could possibly happen is this,

- Robb, Renly and Mace decide to become kings of their respective regions and to help each other carve most of Westeros for themselves. Robb would take the Riverlands (and after Balon's invasion the Iron Islands), Renly would take the crownlands and dragonstone while Mace would take the Westerlands. The Vale and Dorne will remain independent as long as they don't join the fray.

- A series of marriages would secure this alliance. Willas would marry Sansa once KL is secured, Renly would marry Margaery and Desmera Redywne (Willas cousin) will marry Edmure Tully.

 

 

Exactly, so the deal is Mace helps Renly subdue Robb and Balon and in exchange Margaery becomes Queen and Mace gets to keep his crown and some juicy spoils of war. Sure, the Reach continues being independent (or semi-independent a la Dorne) but Renly brings the North, Riverlands and Iron Islands to the fold.

It's a pretty good deal all around, especially if the alternative is Renly just getting the Stormlands and maybe the Crownlands. 

[devilish]

14 hours ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Exactly, so the deal is Mace helps Renly subdue Robb and Balon and in exchange Margaery becomes Queen and Mace gets to keep his crown and some juicy spoils of war. Sure, the Reach continues being independent (or semi-independent a la Dorne) but Renly brings the North, Riverlands and Iron Islands to the fold.

It's a pretty good deal all around, especially if the alternative is Renly just getting the Stormlands and maybe the Crownlands. 

At the beginning of the war, the Reach is a powerhouse. It can rely on an army of 60-80k lead by great general (Tarly).  On top of that, the Tyrells barely have any enemies, Mace has 3 fully grown adults to marry and the Reach is the food basket of Westeros. To give you some perspective, Robb and Renly could raise just 20k each.

In the present timeline Mace Tyrell is happy with seeing his son happy and his daughter as the King’s baby maker. That shows two key things
a-    Mace is weak. Even his mother says so
b-    Renly is a great negotiator.  The easiest path for Mace would have been to ally with the Lannisters. They could raise around 40k and they were more than willing to offer Mace what he wanted

But what if Mace was more ambitious than that? (That’s what OP had asked)

Mace would have 3 choices
a-    High risk - Go solo and aim for the big prize. That was the most treacherous path of all as it would meant fighting everyone, something not even the Tyrell’s horde can do.  If Stannis doesn’t get Renly first, then he would probably ally himself with Tywin in exchange of a chunk of the Reach.

b-    Mid risk - Take Robb’s offer and aim for all remaining kingdoms.  Robb will be crowned King of the North, Mace will declare himself the king of the remaining regions and they both fight side by side to make their dream come true. Considering that Mace is the bigger player then he will probably be able to force the young wolf to let the Riverlands go. Robb would probably want re-assurances that Uncle Edmure won’t be harmed for declaring themselves to Robb but that could be sorted with a couple of marriages (a marriage between Edmure and Margaery?). The North-Riverlands-Reach coalition could raise around 80k which is way more than other players can bring on the table. A matriarchal marriage between Willas and Danny may irk Robb a bit and it might bring the Baratheons closer to Tywin. However if handled wisely it could be a god’s sent. Willas will get the legitimacy he needed, Danny would probably trigger an invasion from the GC and Dorne might react and join the war (Oberyn and Willas are pen friends + Dorran has a weak spot for the dragon queen). 

c-    Low Risk – Robb, Mace and Renly might decide that Westeros is too vast to be ruled solo and instead go for a more profitable model ie a six penny kings /Treaty of Yalta sort of deal. The safest route would be to let Dorne and the Vale alone to avoid having them joining the war and upsetting the balance. Once again Mace is the bigger player. However the cake will be divided in smaller pieces. Robb would probably retain the Riverlands. Mace would aim for the Westerlands and the Iron Islands (After the war is over, Robb may need a lift home, something the Redywne fleet can do, for a price) while Renly will see his lands double as he takes control over the crownlands and dragon stone.

[The Hoare]

His position would be weak.

Most lords of the Reach can follow him as LP, but kingship requires more legitimacy.

Though he would probably have support from the Hightowers and Redwynes, many other houses could declare themselves for Renly, Stannis or Joffrey.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2 hours ago, The Hoare said:

His position would be weak.

Most lords of the Reach can follow him as LP, but kingship requires more legitimacy.

Though he would probably have support from the Hightowers and Redwynes, many other houses could declare themselves for Renly, Stannis or Joffrey.

Or...claim kingship of the Reach for themselves. One of the main points on Mace seeking to make Margaery a queen is the sore spot he has over being descended from upjumped stewards and not from royalty. Even marrying a Hightower has not helped Mace with this. The Hightowers used to be kings, and several families including the Florents (Randyll crowning his wife would be fun) claim descent from the Gardener kings. Most would probably take sides with existing factions, but somebody could certainly challenge Mace's claim.

It could have far-reaching (no pun intended) consequences if the challengers didn't end up crushed immediately. On the surface it would seem a mere wrinkle but what if the two sides start burning each others crops? There wouldn't be enough food to ship to King's Landing. The butterfly effect potential here is really interesting. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Westeros would tear itself apart . As each region jockeys for independence sometimes at the expense of their neighbors and  as old rivalries and resentment surface . Stannis would die fathering shawdowbabies would kill him . Balon would still be killed by the faceless man assassin . Without  the support of the Reach , Tywin would lose to Robb Stark ..Renly marries Margaery . In order to save the realm Tywin marries Cercei to Garlan .

[Lady Blizzardborn]

4 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Westeros would tear itself apart . As each region jockeys for independence sometimes at the expense of their neighbors and  as old rivalries and resentment surface . Stannis would die fathering shawdowbabies would kill him . Balon would still be killed by the faceless man assassin . Without  the support of the Reach , Tywin would lose to Robb Stark ..Renly marries Margaery . In order to save the realm Tywin marries Cercei to Garlan .

Agreed.

Garlan is already married, but Willas is single and he's the heir anyway. I think Tywin had contemplated that match for Cersei.

[snow is the man]

uh the dornish are not friends with highgarden. It is quite the opposite in fact. Tyrion actually said that the dornish hatred of highgarden goes back thousands of years where as their hatred for the lanisters only goes back a generation

[Lady Blizzardborn]

46 minutes ago, snow is the man said:

uh the dornish are not friends with highgarden. It is quite the opposite in fact. Tyrion actually said that the dornish hatred of highgarden goes back thousands of years where as their hatred for the lanisters only goes back a generation

Remember to distinguish between "the Dornish" and the Martells. The Dornish/Reach issues do go back thousands of years...way back to before the Tyrells had any actual power. But there is a decent theory that the current enmity between House Martell and House Tyrell is a farce and that they are secretly working together, or that some members of the families are secretly working together.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 3/7/2017 at 7:55 AM, devilish said:

And what makes you think he would declare himself king after that? Renly isn't the type to throw his life. He'll probably take Joffrey's side in exchange for more lands. That's what a powerful Lord with little chances of getting his hand to the crown would probably act. 

Uh he declared himself king precisely because he thought the crown/Cersei would have him killed. He tells Ned as much. He tells Cat as much. Cersei confirms she was going to kill all 3 of them in a POV chapter in AFFC.

[devilish]

Just now, Universal Sword Donor said:

Uh he declared himself king precisely because he thought the crown/Cersei would have him killed. He tells Ned as much. He tells Cat as much. Cersei confirms she was going to kill all 3 of them in a POV chapter in AFFC.

I doubt that he would be killed if he bent the knee and fought alongside Tywin. With Renly dead, those 20k would be inherited by Stannis

[Universal Sword Donor]

29 minutes ago, devilish said:

I doubt that he would be killed if he bent the knee and fought alongside Tywin. With Renly dead, those 20k would be inherited by Stannis

Stannis didn't get all 20K when he did kill Renly, and once again Cersei was planning on having Renly killed at some point along the way (and he knew/suspected it) when he was an LP and member of the ruling family. Whether or not he fought alongside Tywin has little to no bearing on whether or not Cersei wanted him dead.