US politics: Just another Mueller Monday

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Wasn't sure if that was in the common parlance or not. Didn't mean to step on your toes.

Just giving you shit.  I consider it my job.

[denstorebog]

Being Captain Obvious here before I go to bed, but Dems really, really, really need to push the notion of a divided Republican party while this thing is hot. Breitbart is busy pushing the idea that Ed was too much swamp. If ever there was a time for pushback from moderate Republicans, now is it.

[IamMe90]

50 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

Go get fucked, you nihilist. 

Wow. Such a needlessly abrasive reaction to a benign, if trite remark. Jeez.

Edit: Really glad to see the news, though. Hopefully this has a ripple-type effect. I'm not hopeful, though.

[GAROVORKIN]

Just now, denstorebog said:

Being Captain Obvious here before I go to bed, but Dems really, really, really need to push the notion of a divided Republican party while this thing is hot. Breitbart is busy pushing the idea that Ed was too much swamp. If ever there was a time for pushback from moderate Republicans, now is it.

Given the Democrats own divisions, that might  prove to be not be a good strategy.

[Altherion]

20 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The other thing to consider here, @GAROVORKIN, is that the worst possible outcome for the US (and the one that I think is likely) is the US falling to a single-party state. Virginia and New Jersey and Maine and (hopefully) Washington make that outcome less likely. The Democrats don't have to be in charge of everything in order to keep the US a Republic, but they have to at least be somewhat close. 

Why do you think it is likely? A single party state is practically impossible within the existing framework: the Democrats and Republicans have been taking turns at being in charge for the past century and a half and there's no sign that they want to stop. In fact, even winning a civil war barely disrupted this equilibrium.

Now, it is possible (though just barely) that the pendulum will, so to speak, fly off the chain altogether. This would almost certainly require some manner of violent takeover either by the intelligence community or a paramilitary group allied with a major party or perhaps by the military itself. There are enough armed people in the country to make such a scenario semi-plausible -- but likely? I think not.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

11 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Just giving you shit.  I consider it my job.

Just as long as you're not giving me a frothy mixture of lube and shit, we're cool. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

8 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said:

Given the Democrats own divisions, that might  prove to be not be a good strategy.

No, that's an idea the whole party can get behind. That's a unifying battle cry right there.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

MOAR GOOD MEWS!

 

[IamMe90]

5 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Why do you think it is likely? A single party state is practically impossible within the existing framework: the Democrats and Republicans have been taking turns at being in charge for the past century and a half and there's no sign that they want to stop. In fact, even winning a civil war barely disrupted this equilibrium.

Now, it is possible (though just barely) that the pendulum will, so to speak, fly off the chain altogether. This would almost certainly require some manner of violent takeover either by the intelligence community or a paramilitary group allied with a major party or perhaps by the military itself. There are enough armed people in the country to make such a scenario semi-plausible -- but likely? I think not.

If one party gains enough unified control over the three branches of government, and actually gets their shit together, it's not altogether impossible for that party to pave the road legislatively and judicially to a slow-but-sure erosion of influence of its antipode. I'm not saying we're anywhere near there (yet), but I don't see why this situation is impossible to envision without concerted violence being an integral feature.  

[IheartIheartTesla]

What a sweet, sweet blowout. Although in retrospect, the 'fundamentals' probably pointed in this direction, but its hard to keep that in mind with all the noise and the probable overcompensation by pollsters after 2016.

Still, the first transgender representative, the House of Delegates a virtual tie, repudiation of Bannon etc etc.. Couldnt ask for much more.

[GAROVORKIN]

4 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

If one party gains enough unified control over the three branches of government, and actually gets their shit together, it's not altogether impossible for that party to pave the road legislatively and judicially to a slow-but-sure erosion of influence of its antipode. I'm not saying we're anywhere near there (yet), but I don't see why this situation is impossible to envision without concerted violence being an integral feature.  

So it's possible we might end up going the way of the Roman Republic then? Not a happy thought .

[Ormond]

I'm feeling very proud of Virginia, the state I was born in and graduated from high school in (though most of the in-between years were spent in a suburb of Buffalo, New York.) 

Back when I was a teenager I was an alternate delegate to the Virginia state Republican convention, at just the time when the state party was being taken over by the Goldwaterite ex-Democrats. My favorite politician of all time is still Linwood Holton, the first Republican governor of Virginia after Reconstruction, who tried to be a uniter and a promoter of diversity in the same way that Ralph Northam's victory speech just claimed he would try to be. He did not attend the state convention I was at because the Republicans were about to nominate Mills Godwin, who as a Democrat was the governor Holton replaced, but switched to Republican and also followed Holton in office.

The exit polls they've been showing point out the divide according to college education, with Whites without a college degree going for Gillespie and those with one going for Northam. One thing that set up Virginia for this was that even back when I was in high school it was the former Confederate state with the best public school system. When I was young the college educated voted for Republicans much more than the less educated did. The strategy of playing up to fears of minorities of all types has flipped that completely in the last 40 years. 

I sure hope the Democrats do take the House of Delegates, but even if they don't they will be close enough for Northam to be able to get a lot of his ideas through the legislature, at least according to UVA's Larry Sabato.

So nice to feel so good about the result of an election again.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

28 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said:

So it's possible we might end up going the way of the Roman Republic then? Not a happy thought .

Possible? It's a practical inevitability. No one lives forever, GAROVORKIN. 

[DMC]

Talk about down to the wire!

[GAROVORKIN]

9 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Possible? It's a practical inevitability. No one lives forever, GAROVORKIN. 

Ever see the Course of Empire painting by Thomas Cole ? 

Nothing in this life is forever, of that Im well aware.  

 

 

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Ormond said:

though most of the in-between years were spent in a suburb of Buffalo, New York.

As someone born and raised in suburban Rochester, NY, I'm glad you got out when you could!

The main takeaway from tonight's results is that, yes, trends that have been durable electoral indicators still do matter.  Hopefully that can help lift the spirits of prospective activists and donors that have sounded like Eeyore off his meds for the past year.

[all swedes are racist]

55 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said:

Change for the sake of change makes me a bit skittish . 

 

change for the sake of change...

[Paladin of Ice]

15 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Talk about down to the wire!

These totals should be shoved in the face of everyone who ever says that a single vote, or a few votes, don't matter.

[lokisnow]

Did a white farm boy veteran doctor just become the number one democrat front runner for the 2020 nomination?

[ThinkerX]

3 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

These totals should be shoved in the face of everyone who ever says that a single vote, or a few votes, don't matter.

Not that anybody here cares, but the results for the local level runoff I election I participated in were announced a couple days ago.  (absentee ballots).  My guy won...barely.  50.3% of the vote to 49.7% - literally under a hundred votes.  Of course, neither candidate was especially great; my guy is already yakking about 'shrinking government' - and with the local budget issues, he can make a pretty good case.