Meanwhile back at the Wall

[Alexis-something-Rose]

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Just out of curiosity, how is it a poorly kept secret?  Nobody in the North has seen Arya for over two years now, and then only briefly, and it's not as if they have photographs to compare her against.  The residents of Winterfell are either dead or at the Dreadfort.  Regular visitors like the Cerwyns are dead as well.  She matches the overall description of Arya, is roughly the right age, and knows enough about Winterfell to fool outsiders (essentially everybody).  While there may be some inside Winterfell who know differently, I doubt that information will make it out anytime soon, or will necessarily be taken seriously if it does.

Arya does say that she traveled twice to White Harbor with Ned. So at the very least, she has met Wyman Manderly.

And Jonelle Cerwyn was at Barrowton in ADWD. She is one of the people who signed the letter Ramsay sent to Asha at Deepwood Motte. If she saw Jeyne, there's a good chance she recognized her. 

And there's Mance who would know that Jeyne is not Arya. Whether he has spoken to the northmen or not remains to be seen. I do think he was using his spearwives to pass information on, though. Theon does find one of them with one of the Ryswells at one point.

[Azarial]

 

13 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

No this is after Mance has revealed himself and is sent to rescue Arya.  Jon feels regret for his part in it, although as a big Mance fan I'm glad Jon admits his "admiration" for Mance, who is a huge influence on Jon in many ways.

Ah, that's fair. I just see his initial reactions when there was no guilt involved as being closer to his true feelings on the matter. But, maybe he changed his mind. My moneys on guilt though, Jon loves to imagine all the ways his actions are or could be perceived as wrong.

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This is fair, but to use a term from the books it's a "paper shield" for Jon.  

Yeah, but it's fans I'm concerned with. We already know he got stabbed in the books

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I'm so torn about this.  I used to believe 100% Stannis didn't know about this and would never sanction deceit like this.  But upon reread I found certain phrases Mel used to be indicative of Stannis signing off on this.  I won't reproduce them here, but it is sufficient for me to say that there is a basis to think that both Stannis and Mance have a role in the Pink Letter.

haha I was the opposite. I started out thinking it was a plan involving Stannis and that it was his plan to have Mance infiltrate and spy, and it was a code, with ravens being shot down to get the notes etc. But, now I think Stannis didn't know

Spoiler

until he captured Theon in the sample chapter

But if Mance got out, or Stannis got in they could have written the pink letter together thinking that together Jon and Mel could decode it. Sadly as was shown to us with the Sam drowning vision of Jons, and the waves or sea crashing into tower vision of Mels, showing the Ironborn attacking Oldtown, we as readers already know these two don't communicate well.

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To say what I said before, this is one and the same to me.  We see from her POV that she really wants Jon's approval, whether that translates to trust in her or trust in her abilities I don't think there's really a functional difference.  

It was the way you worded the last post and her goal. Either way, I agree she wants him to trust in her powers so we agree on that at least.

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I think we can put all this aside honestly- I think that Jon thinks Mance deserves to die but can't reconcile it with his own admiration for Mance.  He looks up to Mance, likes Mance the person, and basically understands that Mance is a badass who can be useful.

Thinks the law says he should die but doesn't personally want him to for various reasons and feels guilty for letting him live. Yes, we agree.

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I'm not sure I understand your point here...Jon himself is saying he took an active role in this.  He is saying he "loosed" Mance on the North and that he ordered Edd to help get the spearwives out of Mole's Town.  I think this is honestly just semantics at this point as you point out below- I'd say Jon took an active role in this and you'd say Jon didn't actively stop them...either way I'd say the end result is Jon feels guilt maybe over not actively stopping them.

If there were no proven trolls on this thread, I would easily say he actively participated in getting the women for Mel and Mance, then turned a blind eye and wasn't involved in the rescue aspect of the plan. But, there are. My stubbornness has nothing to with you

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I can agree with this, but only to the extent that I'd still say it's a paper shield for Jon.  It doesn't hold up to scrutiny and that's why he feels guilt over this.

I agree but, I do feel that if Mel said I had vision of a girl in trouble, she's on a dying horse fleeing and Mance knows where she is but we feel that women would be less intimidating, can we get your approval to help her? Jon would say yes and would have asked all the needed questions and tacked on restrictions, maybe even sent a brother or two with them. I think his guilt is because Mel said it was Arya, and this makes him concerned about how it would be perceived, or about actually acting for the wrong reasons, so made sure to not participate in the rescue portion at all, thus failing to ask those questions you were wondering why he never asked. Then Mance never returned, adding to that. If Mel hadn't lied about knowing who the girl was I think most of this mess could have been avoided.

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To the bolded, I can only laugh because that's ridiculous.  As a reader of the books removed from Westeros, I don't give a sh*t about Jon's oaths or what not.  I know the Boltons are awful and that what Ramsay is doing to Jeyne Poole is unspeakable and that Jon is a freaking hero for doing whatever he can to save this poor girl, who btw Jon thinks is his beloved sister.  So yeah, I can't understand people thinking that and anything that causes Ramsay and the Boltons trouble is good by me.

I know, since when does protecting the innocent make people be considered evil haha

[Azarial]

14 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I see that posters are moving from meanwhile back at the Wall to Mance.  Love me some Mance.

Jon questions stuff. Perhaps Bolton didn’t have his sister. Maybe the wedding was a ruse to lure Stannis into a trap.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII      What if Bolton never had his sister? This wedding could well be just some ruse to lure Stannis into a trap. Eddard Stark had never had any reason to complain of the Lord of the Dreadfort, so far as Jon knew, but even so he had never trusted him, with his whispery voice and his pale, pale eyes.     A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north.                       "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town./

Seems like LC Snow was on course. Roose did change his plans. The wedding was changed from Barrowton to WF with the intent to lure Stannis into a trap as described below. And Bolton is depending on Karstark to reel Stannis in.

And his plans changed after hearing from Karstark about Stannis getting support of Northmen, and taking targets important to the Northerners, that an outsider wouldn't necessarily see the value of showing that he was acting based on Northern interests not his own personal goals and adjusted based on this, as you show below.

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A Dance with Dragons - Reek III        That is only half of it, however. We would be fools to march on Stannis. Let Stannis march on us. He is too cautious to come to Barrowton … but he must come to Winterfell. His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you. Stannis must march or lose them … and being the careful commander that he is, he will summon all his friends and allies when he marches. He will summon Arnolf Karstark."    Ramsay licked his chapped lips. "And we'll have him."/

If only Theon had admitted that Arya was a fake, then they could have changed their plans. But, it does seem like the deck is stacked to much in favor of the Boltons, so I have to wonder what we are missing. Or what can Bran, Bloodraven and Mance (who seems linked to Bloodraven, based on his helm and Tormund being talker to Gods.) do?

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What about the women Mance requested ----- young and pretty. Mance supplied some names and Edd smuggled the women from Moles Town. Yet, when Mance/Abel shows up at the gates of WF this is what Theon recalled.

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell       Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him./

Now, that is not to say Abel’s wife and his mother aren’t pretty, but they ain’t young. So what changed? Mance and his women were sposed to intercept a girl near a lake ---that was the mission.     Why did martin send Mance to WF?

Don't forget their extreme Stark Loyalty, that seems odd for anyone born and raised beyond the wall.

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Even the godswood was turning white. A film of ice had formed upon the pool beneath the heart tree, and the face carved into its pale trunk had grown a mustache of little icicles. At this hour they could not hope to have the old gods to themselves. Rowan pulled Theon away from the northmen praying before the tree, to a secluded spot back by the barracks wall, beside a pool of warm mud that stank of rotten eggs. Even the mud was icing up about the edges, Theon saw. "Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—"

Their speech is also much more refined than other Free folk we see. I can't remember what thread I read it on, as it was a couple years ago, but some do believe these women are stolen Northerners and their children that Mance brought to gain the trust and support of the Lords at the wedding. And I have to wonder, what is the reason they are interested in the crypts? Be it something hidden there, to secret tunnels to escape that are in the older collapsed portion, they invested a lot of effort to find them. But, there is little doubt that they are up to something.

If you look at the section where Mel tells Mance about her vision, she then leaves him alone for a long time while putting on her 'show' for Jon. When she finally comes back Mance asks for the women very early in the conversation, prior to Jon even being told there is a plan, showing that this was on his mind. So whatever this plan is, it appears to be something Mance thought of while he was left alone. And we know he was there when Jon read aloud the wedding invitation/announcement. So he would have known the original wedding location and it's proximity to Long Lake, as well as the names of some of the Lords. And I'm guessing he climbed in Jons window and read the whole thing for himself, and yes I think he and Tormund can both read and write based off of Tormund knowing to much about things like feather types, and Maesters ink, and how educated Mance seems in general.

[aryagonnakill#2]

2 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Arya does say that she traveled twice to White Harbor with Ned. So at the very least, she has met Wyman Manderly.

And Jonelle Cerwyn was at Barrowton in ADWD. She is one of the people who signed the letter Ramsay sent to Asha at Deepwood Motte. If she saw Jeyne, there's a good chance she recognized her. 

And there's Mance who would know that Jeyne is not Arya. Whether he has spoken to the northmen or not remains to be seen. I do think he was using his spearwives to pass information on, though. Theon does find one of them with one of the Ryswells at one point.

What?  Then why did most/all of his spearwives die trying to rescue her?

[Azarial]

2 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What?  Then why did most/all of his spearwives die trying to rescue her?

Maybe, so that the men not in the castle can see her and learn that she is fake too? Or to cause turmoil in the castle? Spread fear that the fact she's a fake could be discovered? I can see some reasons they may rescue her anyway, and they didn't think they would die. Her screaming seemed to really shock them. 

But I agree it's odd and Mance may not have gotten a really good look at her. She was only out of her room on her wedding night and he wouldn't have been at the head table as he'd be with the band and expected to be working. The big tell is eye color, that requires getting pretty close. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

31 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What?  Then why did most/all of his spearwives die trying to rescue her?

Did he tell them anything, though? It seems to me that Mance was willing to sacrifice the spearwives to carry on whatever plans he had made and this ploy he meant to pull. 

It doesn't even seem like Mance wanted the spearwives so that "Arya" would trust him. What does he need six women for? 

Whatever he wants at Winterfell may have been big enough that he was willing to sacrifice these women's lives. 

That's my read on the situation at least.

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But I agree it's odd and Mance may not have gotten a really good look at her. She was only out of her room on her wedding night and he wouldn't have been at the head table as he'd be with the band and expected to be working. The big tell is eye color, that requires getting pretty close.

Mance told Jon in ASOS that he had a good look at Lord Stark's children. As one of two singers present, he must have been sitting by the dais where the royal family and the Starks. Jon was sitting far enough in the low tables that he barely heard the music over all the noise.

** I have no idea why this is highlighted.

[Tagganaro]

22 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Did he tell them anything, though? It seems to me that Mance was willing to sacrifice the spearwives to carry on whatever plans he had made and this ploy he meant to pull. 

It doesn't even seem like Mance wanted the spearwives so that "Arya" would trust him. What does he need six women for? 

Whatever he wants at Winterfell may have been big enough that he was willing to sacrifice these women's lives. 

That's my read on the situation at least.

Mance told Jon in ASOS that he had a good look at Lord Stark's children. As one of two singers present, he must have been sitting by the dais where the royal family and the Starks. Jon was sitting far enough in the low tables that he barely heard the music over all the noise.

** I have no idea why this is highlighted.

41 minutes ago, Azarial said:

Maybe, so that the men not in the castle can see her and learn that she is fake too? Or to cause turmoil in the castle? Spread fear that the fact she's a fake could be discovered? I can see some reasons they may rescue her anyway, and they didn't think they would die. Her screaming seemed to really shock them. 

But I agree it's odd and Mance may not have gotten a really good look at her. She was only out of her room on her wedding night and he wouldn't have been at the head table as he'd be with the band and expected to be working. The big tell is eye color, that requires getting pretty close. 

52 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What?  Then why did most/all of his spearwives die trying to rescue her?

This has bothered me for a while but I believe Mance 100% knows "Arya" is a fake.  Jaime Lannister spots Jeyne as a fake right away and I don't think he really knew Arya all that well either (although admittedly he spent a lot more time around her at Winterfell and the way back to King's Landing).  Mance specifically makes a point of telling Jon when they first meet that he went to Winterfell and got a good look at all the Stark children and the wolves at their feet.  Plus we also know that Arya and Jon have the "Stark" look in common, something I would guess Mance noted in Winterfell.  Mance spent a ton of time around Jon, I would think he would make note of the fact that Jeyne Poole does not look like Jon.

Having said that, I don't think Mance would sacrifice the spearwives for a fake Arya.  I'm not even sure he'd do it for the real Arya.  This plays to the idea that Mance is carrying out his "other ploy" here that he always planned on carrying out and the spearwives/"Arya" are just a part of it.

 

[BlackLightning]

I'm surprised that you guys think that Pink Letter is real. I find it extremely hard to believe that Mance and the spearwives would be discovered and taken down that easily. And the timeline isn't quite adding up.

I think Littlefinger wrote it, interweaving reasonable conclusions with outright bullsh!t, and sent it to Jon in the favor of creating chaos and getting rid of a loose end that'll threaten his hold over Sansa.

16 hours ago, Lollygag said:

He may miss her but I doubt he escapes finding out. It seems like a very poorly kept secret and LF was only using her as a placeholder. The fArya plot only needed to work for a short time until LF could move on to whatever's next. I don't know what that would be, but it surely wasn't giving the Boltons the seat permanently.

Anyhow, I think Jon/Ghost are headed to Winterfell as planned. I don't think he's going to just wait around twiddling his thumbs while he thinks Arya is in trouble and he can now do nothing at the Wall. Besides, if Marsh holds the Wall for any real period of time, he'll make every wrong choice which makes it even more important to secure Winterfell to back up the NW. Under Bowen Marsh the first line of defense is likely already lost - just a matter of time. Better to focus on shoring up the second line of defense which would be Winterfell and the North.

Actually, wouldn't the second line of defense be Last Hearth and not Winterfell?

And I think this fake Arya plot is going to be what turns Sansa against Littlefinger. When she finds out (she'll find out when Littlefinger wants her to), it's going to light a fire under her butt (which Littlefinger wants). But what Littlefinger does not expect is that it will piss Sansa TF off. So much so that the fired-up Sansa will start working independently to get back to Winterfell and free fArya ASAFP. In her independent work, she'll discover that either:

1. fArya is a fake
2. fArya is actually her childhood friend, Jeyne Poole
3. Littlefinger is behind it all
4. Any combination of the above

Cue the book version of season 6 and 7 Sansa (i.e. the Sansa that distances herself from and barely tolerates Littlefinger)

Except book Littlefinger is 10x more dangerous than his show counterpart. So book Sansa is going to have to move very slowly and very carefully if she wants to take him down.

[Azarial]

43 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Mance told Jon in ASOS that he had a good look at Lord Stark's children. As one of two singers present, he must have been sitting by the dais where the royal family and the Starks. Jon was sitting far enough in the low tables that he barely heard the music over all the noise.

Wrong time, wrong feast. I know he saw them all and their wolves, so saw them around the castle. And they did the whole procession as well. And Mance said he was at the back of the hall and not playing music at the kings feast, thus able to pay attention. 

I meant for Ramsey's wedding feast. It was very chaotic, and he wouldn't have been at the head table, making her eyes difficult to see. And he was playing his lute and singing. So he could have seen from a distance that the hair color and age looked right and not gotten a good enough look to notice the eyes, and subtle facial features. 

19 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

This has bothered me for a while but I believe Mance 100% knows "Arya" is a fake.  Jaime Lannister spots Jeyne as a fake right away and I don't think he really knew Arya all that well either (although admittedly he spent a lot more time around her at Winterfell and the way back to King's Landing).  Mance specifically makes a point of telling Jon when they first meet that he went to Winterfell and got a good look at all the Stark children and the wolves at their feet.  Plus we also know that Arya and Jon have the "Stark" look in common, something I would guess Mance noted in Winterfell.  Mance spent a ton of time around Jon, I would think he would make note of the fact that Jeyne Poole does not look like Jon.

Having said that, I don't think Mance would sacrifice the spearwives for a fake Arya.  I'm not even sure he'd do it for the real Arya.  This plays to the idea that Mance is carrying out his "other ploy" here that he always planned on carrying out and the spearwives/"Arya" are just a part of it.

 

Jamie saw her up close, even talked to her out in the daylight. A smokey hall lit by candles, lamps and fires with a wedding feast going on, where you are expected to perform is a very different situation. 

I know that Jon and Arya both have the Stark look, but one of the main things about that is the eyes. Jon mentions Alys's eyes as one of the things that made him think of Arya for example. Jayne was only out of her room for people to look at the night of the wedding. And Arya being two years younger the last time anyone saw her, and a girl so even if she had similar features to Jon, they never would have been identical, I can see him not knowing. Even the long face was said to be more about Jayne picking on her for her love of horses and riding, and isn't as extreme as many seem to believe. And Jayne had the same hair color and was similar enough in age to pass. And Theon keeps thinking the eyes are wrong, the eyes are wrong. He doesn't think the face shape is wrong, or the hair color is wrong. So to me, that says in order to notice she is fake you need to be close enough to see her eyes.

I agree, he wouldn't sacrifice them. He chose them by name and for specific reasons, that we are never made aware of. I think he wanted all of them to get out alive, and Jayne screaming was not something they planned for. The real Arya would never have screamed and Mance observed her at the kings feast and for at least a day or two after and would likely know she was a tom boy type, so this oversight makes more sense if they believed she was the real Arya.

[Azarial]

13 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I'm surprised that you guys think that Pink Letter is real. I find it extremely hard to believe that Mance and the spearwives would be discovered and taken down that easily. And the timeline isn't quite adding up.

I think Littlefinger wrote it, interweaving reasonable conclusions with outright bullsh!t, and sent it to Jon in the favor of creating chaos and getting rid of a loose end that'll threaten his hold over Sansa.

Actually, wouldn't the second line of defense be Last Hearth and not Winterfell?

And I think this fake Arya plot is going to be what turns Sansa against Littlefinger. When she finds out (she'll find out when Littlefinger wants her to), it's going to light a fire under her butt (which Littlefinger wants). But what Littlefinger does not expect is that it will piss Sansa TF off. So much so that the fired-up Sansa will start working independently to get back to Winterfell and free fArya ASAFP. In her independent work, she'll discover that either:

1. fArya is a fake
2. fArya is actually her childhood friend, Jeyne Poole
3. Littlefinger is behind it all
4. Any combination of the above

Cue the book version of season 6 and 7 Sansa (i.e. the Sansa that distances herself from and barely tolerates Littlefinger)

Except book Littlefinger is 10x more dangerous than his show counterpart. So book Sansa is going to have to move very slowly and very carefully if she wants to take him down.

Umm... we said it wasn't real. We said Mance and/or Stannis seem likely, and that it's probably a code. It was stated that the letter to Asha was real, but that's hardly the same thing as the pink letter. And The letter contains exact phrases and terms only known to Mance, Jon, Stannis and Theon so I find Littlefinger to be highly implausible. 

 

[Lollygag]

27 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Actually, wouldn't the second line of defense be Last Hearth and not Winterfell?

And I think this fake Arya plot is going to be what turns Sansa against Littlefinger. When she finds out (she'll find out when Littlefinger wants her to), it's going to light a fire under her butt (which Littlefinger wants). But what Littlefinger does not expect is that it will piss Sansa TF off. So much so that the fired-up Sansa will start working independently to get back to Winterfell and free fArya ASAFP. In her independent work, she'll discover that either:

1. fArya is a fake
2. fArya is actually her childhood friend, Jeyne Poole
3. Littlefinger is behind it all
4. Any combination of the above

Cue the book version of season 6 and 7 Sansa (i.e. the Sansa that distances herself from and barely tolerates Littlefinger)

Except book Littlefinger is 10x more dangerous than his show counterpart. So book Sansa is going to have to move very slowly and very carefully if she wants to take him down.

The bolded: techinically yes (I guess, haven't looked at a map). I was speaking more broadly and not in terms of potential specific battle sites.

If the NW fails (and it will under Bowen Marsh hence all of that back and forth between Jon and Bowen in ADWD), then Winterfell needs to organize and rally the North and that won't happen under Bolton rule.

[BlackLightning]

11 minutes ago, Azarial said:

Umm... we said it wasn't real. We said Mance and/or Stannis seem likely, and that it's probably a code. It was stated that the letter to Asha was real, but that's hardly the same thing as the pink letter. And The letter contains exact phrases and terms only known to Mance, Jon, Stannis and Theon so I find Littlefinger to be highly implausible. 

 

Littlefinger prizes knowledge almost as much as he prizes chaos.

If his next move is to take Winterfell and the North in Sansa's name, why would he not have spies in the North feeding him information. Why on Earth would he just be okay with leading an army blind into a icy wilderness?

So, Littlefinger using terms that only Theon, Mance, Jon and Stannis know is a moot point to me. Littlefinger has likely been watching Jon from the moment he became Lord Commander (which therefore means that Mance and Stannis were being watched). Littlefinger is almost the antithesis of Stannis (I think he's afraid of him) so it's a given that Littlefinger would have a detail on Stannis. Littlefinger has been working closely with the Boltons for a while; he almost certainly knows Theon is alive. Plus, if he would spies anywhere in the North, Winterfell would be the first place.

Mance I can see writing the Pink Letter - especially in code. But why? What does he gain by confusing the hell out of Jon? Wouldn't he just be better off if he found another way to tell Jon that (f)Arya has already escaped and you need to bring everyone you've got at Castle Black down to Winterfell?

He knows the Night's Watch well; he should've known that they were already on thin ice with Jon? Why incite and agitate them further?

Stannis writing the Pink Letter? Now, that's highly implausible. Stannis isn't the "write it in code" type. And for him to use the kind of vernacular found in the Pink Letter? No way. Stannis would have to be absolutely desperate (worse than how he and his men were in Storm's End way back when) to stoop that low. And if he's stooping that low, then I'm sure he's going to start okaying the sacrifice some people to the red god. And even if that were all true, the timelines still aren't adding up. How would Stannis know about Mance Rayder and the spearwives when in the Theon chapter from Winds he is just now acting on Jon's intel about the Karstarks?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I didn't say he would sacrifice the spearwives for Jeyne/Arya. I said the spearwives might be expendable for whatever he had planned at Winterfell.

[The Commentator]

On ‎6‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 10:13 PM, Wolf's Bane said:

Mel presented the idea but it was Jon's decision whether to proceed or not.  He chose to proceed.  To make his guilt even worse, Jon was in charge and he sent Dolorous to fetch the women from mole town to help Mance Rayder.  There is no way you could have read the books and claim that Jon had nothing to do with with the Arya rescue mission.  Jon was in charge.  Mel and Mance could not go along with it without Jon's permission and cooperation.  Jon was not a passive participant in this illegal mission, he was an active participant.  He was mission commander.  Mance did exactly what Jon told him to do, he removed the girl he thought was Arya from Winterfell.  Why did Mance do that?  Because he was working for Jon and that was what Jon told him to do.

 

[Azarial]

7 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Littlefinger prizes knowledge almost as much as he prizes chaos.

If his next move is to take Winterfell and the North in Sansa's name, why would he not have spies in the North feeding him information. Why on Earth would he just be okay with leading an army blind into a icy wilderness?

So, Littlefinger using terms that only Theon, Mance, Jon and Stannis know is a moot point to me. Littlefinger has likely been watching Jon from the moment he became Lord Commander

So the terms that were used between Jon and Mance north of the wall makes sense to you how? And Littlefinger having spies at Winterfell makes sense but the wall where these conversations took place isn't the red keep with hollow walls, and lots of places to hide. These conversations were made in locked rooms with guards blocking the entrance to the tower.

7 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

(which therefore means that Mance and Stannis were being watched). Littlefinger is almost the antithesis of Stannis (I think he's afraid of him) so it's a given that Littlefinger would have a detail on Stannis. Littlefinger has been working closely with the Boltons for a while; he almost certainly knows Theon is alive. Plus, if he would spies anywhere in the North, Winterfell would be the first place.

And since 90% of what was in that letter is shown to be things said in private at the wall and North of the wall, this is irrelevant. It's only the Reek stuff, and the my bride, my Reek stuff that is from Winterfell, and those are the parts that are put in in case the raven is intercepted.

7 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Mance I can see writing the Pink Letter - especially in code. But why? What does he gain by confusing the hell out of Jon? Wouldn't he just be better off if he found another way to tell Jon that (f)Arya has already escaped and you need to bring everyone you've got at Castle Black down to Winterfell?

He knows the Night's Watch well; he should've known that they were already on thin ice with Jon? Why incite and agitate them further?

Mance is the one I believe, those who believe it's Stannis can argue that, I'm just saying what was discussed since you claimed we said it was real. The reason is if the raven get's shot down. He is using the exact same type of hints that he tried to use to tell Jon that he was Mance, when he was posing as Rattleshirt. He probably also would have done it that way in case someone else read it first, it sounds like the ravings of a mad man to anyone other than Jon and Mel.

7 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

 How would Stannis know about Mance Rayder and the spearwives when in the Theon chapter from Winds he is just now acting on Jon's intel about the Karstarks?

Easy, GRRM said they aren't in chronological order and that chapter was originally intended to be in Dance. 

As for Littlefinger, he doesn't get directly involved like this. Sansa's claim is better, and planting a fake that she can identify after going to save her sister will allow him to create an even larger rift between the crown and the North. He doesn't need to do anything more than that. It's just like he said about Cersei tanking the realm faster than he anticipated. He knows the Boltons just being in power will cause trouble, but the pink letter would cause it to reach the critical point before he is ready to have Sansa and the Vale save the day.

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Azarial said:

Jamie saw her up close, even talked to her out in the daylight. A smokey hall lit by candles, lamps and fires with a wedding feast going on, where you are expected to perform is a very different situation. 

I know that Jon and Arya both have the Stark look, but one of the main things about that is the eyes. Jon mentions Alys's eyes as one of the things that made him think of Arya for example. Jayne was only out of her room for people to look at the night of the wedding. And Arya being two years younger the last time anyone saw her, and a girl so even if she had similar features to Jon, they never would have been identical, I can see him not knowing. Even the long face was said to be more about Jayne picking on her for her love of horses and riding, and isn't as extreme as many seem to believe. And Jayne had the same hair color and was similar enough in age to pass. And Theon keeps thinking the eyes are wrong, the eyes are wrong. He doesn't think the face shape is wrong, or the hair color is wrong. So to me, that says in order to notice she is fake you need to be close enough to see her eyes.

I agree, he wouldn't sacrifice them. He chose them by name and for specific reasons, that we are never made aware of. I think he wanted all of them to get out alive, and Jayne screaming was not something they planned for. The real Arya would never have screamed and Mance observed her at the kings feast and for at least a day or two after and would likely know she was a tom boy type, so this oversight makes more sense if they believed she was the real Arya.

It's interesting...Jon and Arya both have the Stark look which is the grey eyes and the long face, which yes, as you point out probably isn't that extreme.  Jeyne describes herself in the past as "very pretty" I seem to recall, does Theon dispute that?  I would venture a guess that the Arya Mance saw in Winterfell could never be described as "very pretty" though Arya does seem to have grown more into her looks by this time in the books.  Also does Jeyne have a long face as well?  How close of a look Mance would have gotten of Arya at the feast at Winterfell is up for debate, but yeah, upon re-reading what Mance says he claimed he sat in the back of the Hall and made "passing note" of all the Stark children.  That does seem to imply he didn't really get a close look but who knows?

Either way, I think everyone seems to agree that Mance is using the spearwives for whatever ploy he intended from the start and so it's probably irrelevant whether he thinks "Arya" is real or not.

[Azarial]

2 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

It's interesting...Jon and Arya both have the Stark look which is the grey eyes and the long face, which yes, as you point out probably isn't that extreme.  Jeyne describes herself in the past as "very pretty" I seem to recall, does Theon dispute that?  I would venture a guess that the Arya Mance saw in Winterfell could never be described as "very pretty" though Arya does seem to have grown more into her looks by this time in the books.  Also does Jeyne have a long face as well?  How close of a look Mance would have gotten of Arya at the feast at Winterfell is up for debate, but yeah, upon re-reading what Mance says he claimed he sat in the back of the Hall and made "passing note" of all the Stark children.  That does seem to imply he didn't really get a close look but who knows?

Either way, I think everyone seems to agree that Mance is using the spearwives for whatever ploy he intended from the start and so it's probably irrelevant whether he thinks "Arya" is real or not.

When she said she made up the name because she (who wanted Sansa's approval, and to be closest to her and Arya was her main competition for that spot, making her very biased) thought Arya's face was long and horsey, she tells Theon that she was never as pretty as Sansa, but was always pretty. Not very pretty. But he never agree's or denies this, as she asks if Ramsey thinks she's pretty and he lies to her and says yes is all we're told.

We are also told that Arya could be pretty if she just washed and brushed her hair and is described as pretty in the HoBW. I'm guessing that Arya was cleaned up for the feast, and would have been pretty since the only people to say otherwise are Arya and Jayne. So despite Jayne's mean nickname, if Jayne had any northern facial features they may look reasonably similar. Girls do often pick on others for features they hate in themselves. But, I couldn't find a clear answer. At the very least, their level of prettiness seems to be similar, even if her face wasn't long. And faces can fill out or become more gaunt at puberty too and Jayne may have had her face slim down from stress and lack of eating well, something Theon notices. 

[BlackLightning]

36 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I didn't say he would sacrifice the spearwives for Jeyne/Arya. I said the spearwives might be expendable for whatever he had planned at Winterfell.

Naturally.

Mance needs muscle, boots on the ground. And taking female warriors instead of male warriors is the wisest course of action

23 minutes ago, Azarial said:

As for Littlefinger, he doesn't get directly involved like this. Sansa's claim is better, and planting a fake that she can identify after going to save her sister will allow him to create an even larger rift between the crown and the North. He doesn't need to do anything more than that. It's just like he said about Cersei tanking the realm faster than he anticipated. He knows the Boltons just being in power will cause trouble, but the pink letter would cause it to reach the critical point before he is ready to have Sansa and the Vale save the day.

He got directly involved with the Vale, didn't he?

You're absolutely right about Sansa's superior claim, the importance of driving an even bigger wedge between the Iron Throne and the North, Cersei's ineptitude catching Littlefinger by surprise and how the Pink Letter would cause the North to reach critical mass.

However, the North exploding into another rebellion doesn't put Littlefinger at a disadvantage. Because Sansa and the Vale can't save the day and take Winterfell for themselves if Stannis Baratheon is still roaming the North with his own army with the Wall acting as his base of operations.

Much less if the Boltons are able to hold Winterfell for any longer. Remember: the longer the Boltons (or Stannis) have Winterfell, the more time they will have to galvanize and the harder it will be to take it back and remove them. Sure, Jeyne Poole is not Arya Stark and the Boltons' house of cards is in danger of completely collapsing. But the Boltons have the Dreadfort (and maybe even Barrowton) to fall back on. And they are still backed by the Lannister-Tyrell machine which, although it has been seriously weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with.

Littlefinger can't wait too long. Lest Stannis gets his sellsword army, Jon Snow makes his move and the Boltons receive reinforcements from the Lannisters and/or the Tyrells.

Causing chaos from the shadows then using said chaos to gain politically power is Littlefinger's M.O. It's easy for him to pit the Baratheons, the Boltons and the Night Watch against each other, watch them tear each other to pieces and then swoop in with Sansa and the Valemen so as to finish off whoever is left standing. Or better yet, completely pull the rug out from under them.

[Azarial]

4 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Naturally.

Mance needs muscle, boots on the ground. And taking female warriors instead of male warriors is the wisest course of action

He got directly involved with the Vale, didn't he?

Nope, he plants ideas and lets them act. He's very clear about this. The pink letter isn't subtle enough to be his doing, and has language and references to conversations that even with spies he wouldn't know about. And Jon and Stannis have been communicating, it wouldn't take much for it to be revealed as a fake. He wouldn't bank on something that one Raven could undo. 

4 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

You're absolutely right about Sansa's superior claim, the importance of driving an even bigger wedge between the Iron Throne and the North, Cersei's ineptitude catching Littlefinger by surprise and how the Pink Letter would cause the North to reach critical mass.

However, the North exploding into another rebellion doesn't put Littlefinger at a disadvantage. Because Sansa and the Vale can't save the day and take Winterfell for themselves if Stannis Baratheon is still roaming the North with his own army with the Wall acting as his base of operations.

Ah, but if Sansa shows up, all those loyal Northern houses that are fighting for Neds little girl would run to her. The Bolton power weakens by the day, and Stannis is stuck in a snow storm, with his troops starving. There is no rush.

4 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Much less if the Boltons are able to hold Winterfell for any longer. Remember: the longer the Boltons (or Stannis) have Winterfell, the more time they will have to galvanize and the harder it will be to take it back and remove them. Sure, Jeyne Poole is not Arya Stark and the Boltons' house of cards is in danger of completely collapsing. But the Boltons have the Dreadfort (and maybe even Barrowton) to fall back on. And they are still backed by the Lannister-Tyrell machine which, although it has been seriously weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with.

But Cersei and Margery both got arrested for treason they're houses are dealing with the Riverlands and the attacks along the coast, and Ironborn up the Mander so they are bit busy, and you can't tell me he doesn't know this.

4 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Littlefinger can't wait too long. Lest Stannis gets his sellsword army, Jon Snow makes his move and the Boltons receive reinforcements from the Lannisters and/or the Tyrells.

If he had spies, he'd know that Jon never intended to make a move. Stannis can't get an army through the blizzard, and no reinforcements are coming. In fact, getting Jon off the wall, given Robs will is the last thing he would want, so he wouldn't taunt Jon, as that could kill his plans for Sansa.

4 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Causing chaos from the shadows then using said chaos to gain politically power is Littlefinger's M.O. It's easy for him to pit the Baratheons, the Boltons and the Night Watch against each other, watch them tear each other to pieces and then swoop in with Sansa and the Valemen so as to finish off whoever is left standing. Or better yet, completely pull the rug out from under them.

But, this isn't from the shadow's, it's not subtle. This is direct meddling, and there is no need. He can just wait, continue with his plan to get rich off the food of the Vale, while appearing to be helping for noble reasons. 

[Clegane'sPup]

3 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I think Littlefinger wrote it, interweaving reasonable conclusions with outright bullsh!t, and sent it to Jon in the favor of creating chaos and getting rid of a loose end that'll threaten his hold over Sansa.

 

2 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

If his next move is to take Winterfell and the North in Sansa's name, why would he not have spies in the North feeding him information. Why on Earth would he just be okay with leading an army blind into a icy wilderness?

Are you familiar with cadence of evangelist preachers --- I say cast off the scales from thine eyes.  What was seen on the thing that is not supposed to be mentioned in the book forum is not how the book story was written. As of the end of DwD there is no hint of LF & Sansa going to WF.

As it stands Sansa at the request of LF is planning a feast and tourney in/at the Vale. While Stannis is snow bound at a crofters village supposedly three miles from WF. Plus Bolton has let loose Frey men, followed by Manderly men to attack Stannis.

Stannis has Theon and Jeyne in his clutches. Stannis also knows Karstark planned on betraying him. Stannis also has in his possession the ravens that a maester traveling with Karstark was using.

If you would like to discuss Sansa and LF start a new thread     “Meanwhile back at the Vale.”    Thanks.