Meanwhile back at the Wall

[Lollygag]

2 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

What was seen on the thing that is not supposed to be mentioned in the book forum is not how the book story was written. As of the end of DwD there is no hint of LF & Sansa going to WF.

This is LF's plan as told to Sansa in the books. Now whether one believes this or not is another matter.

AFFC Alayne II

Petyr arched an eyebrow. "When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon . . . and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out with your long auburn hair, clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back . . . why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa . . . Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell. That's worth another kiss now, don't you think?"

 

[Clegane'sPup]

9 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

This is LF's plan as told to Sansa in the books. Now whether one believes this or not is another matter.

AFFC Alayne II

 

Petyr arched an eyebrow. "When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon . . . and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out with your long auburn hair, clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back . . . why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa . . . Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell. That's worth another kiss now, don't you think?"

 

 

 

This would fit very nicely in a "Meanwhile back at the Vale" thread. 

[BlackLightning]

51 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

 

Are you familiar with cadence of evangelist preachers --- I say cast off the scales from thine eyes.  What was seen on the thing that is not supposed to be mentioned in the book forum is not how the book story was written. As of the end of DwD there is no hint of LF & Sansa going to WF.

As it stands Sansa at the request of LF is planning a feast and tourney in/at the Vale. While Stannis is snow bound at a crofters village supposedly three miles from WF. Plus Bolton has let loose Frey men, followed by Manderly men to attack Stannis.

Stannis has Theon and Jeyne in his clutches. Stannis also knows Karstark planned on betraying him. Stannis also has in his possession the ravens that a maester traveling with Karstark was using.

If you would like to discuss Sansa and LF start a new thread     “Meanwhile back at the Vale.”    Thanks.

Unless Aegon's presence forces Littlefinger to jump ship, he is still aiming to go to Winterfell. The last lines of notAlayne's last chapter in Feast says so much but yes. Back on topic.

3 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

It's interesting...Jon and Arya both have the Stark look which is the grey eyes and the long face, which yes, as you point out probably isn't that extreme.  Jeyne describes herself in the past as "very pretty" I seem to recall, does Theon dispute that?  I would venture a guess that the Arya Mance saw in Winterfell could never be described as "very pretty" though Arya does seem to have grown more into her looks by this time in the books.  Also does Jeyne have a long face as well?  How close of a look Mance would have gotten of Arya at the feast at Winterfell is up for debate, but yeah, upon re-reading what Mance says he claimed he sat in the back of the Hall and made "passing note" of all the Stark children.  That does seem to imply he didn't really get a close look but who knows?

Either way, I think everyone seems to agree that Mance is using the spearwives for whatever ploy he intended from the start and so it's probably irrelevant whether he thinks "Arya" is real or not.

So...

If the spearwives had been part of Mance's plans for quite some time AND if Mance had written the Pink Letter, then he had to have found something - perhaps in the crypts. Something big enough to make Mance send an "encrypted," inflammatory letter to Jon that may or may not even do what it was supposed to.

Was Mance trying to kill Jon? Because that's exactly what the letter caused.

I can't help but feel that Mance Rayder isn't just Mance Rayder. That Bael the Bard story keeps ringing in my head. There's definitely more to Mance than what meets the eye. It's just that Jon and Melisandre don't know what it is yet.

Because what has he been planning to do with Winterfell this whole time? And why does he want Jon to be involved in it all of the sudden?

[aryagonnakill#2]

I asked a rhetorical question yesterday hoping to point out an inaccuracy, and instead got three responses layering conspiracy theory on top of conspiracy theory.

I should have known better.  This thread is hopeless.

[Clegane'sPup]

The multiple page quoting gives me heartburn.

Is this the rhetorical question?

7 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What?  Then why did most/all of his spearwives die trying to rescue her?

8 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I asked a rhetorical question yesterday hoping to point out an inaccuracy, and instead got three responses layering conspiracy theory on top of conspiracy theory.

I should have known better.  This thread is hopeless.

No, dunna throw in the towel just yet.

[kissdbyfire]

11 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I asked a rhetorical question yesterday hoping to point out an inaccuracy, and instead got three responses layering conspiracy theory on top of conspiracy theory.

I should have known better.  This thread is hopeless.

What was the question? I must have missed it... But I suppose it doesn't matter since it was rhetorical?

I think a clue on whether the northerners at Winterfell know Jeyne is not Arya is the fact that Jaime immediately sees that she isn't. If he did, chances are that most northerners will too imo.  

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I asked a rhetorical question yesterday hoping to point out an inaccuracy, and instead got three responses layering conspiracy theory on top of conspiracy theory.

I should have known better.  This thread is hopeless.

Is this about the spearwives? We don't know that all spearwives died. Holly, the one who was with Theon and Jeyne died on page. Squirrel is the one who switched places with Jeyne and she's supposed to climb down the tower. And we don't know where the other ones are except for what the pink letter says. 

[BlackLightning]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

What was the question? I must have missed it... But I suppose it doesn't matter since it was rhetorical?

I think a clue on whether the northerners at Winterfell know Jeyne is not Arya is the fact that Jaime immediately sees that she isn't. If he did, chances are that most northerners will too imo.  

I'm kind of appalled that the Boltons actually thought that it would work.

Ned Stark often hosted his vassals in Winterfell or traveled from holdfast to holdfast, town to town, village to village with his wife and children in tow...many times.

[Lollygag]

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

This would fit very nicely in a "Meanwhile back at the Vale" thread. 

I don't know what it'd be called, but it wouldn't be a Vale thread if it's about LF and Sansa at Winterfell and LF's intentions for the fArya plot. Especially as winter has now made this time-critical and needing to happen sooner rather than later.

But my point was that it's a book thing.

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

So...

If the spearwives had been part of Mance's plans for quite some time AND if Mance had written the Pink Letter, then he had to have found something - perhaps in the crypts. Something big enough to make Mance send an "encrypted," inflammatory letter to Jon that may or may not even do what it was supposed to.

Was Mance trying to kill Jon? Because that's exactly what the letter caused.

I can't help but feel that Mance Rayder isn't just Mance Rayder. That Bael the Bard story keeps ringing in my head. There's definitely more to Mance than what meets the eye. It's just that Jon and Melisandre don't know what it is yet.

Because what has he been planning to do with Winterfell this whole time? And why does he want Jon to be involved in it all of the sudden?

Man...those crypts might as well be called Chekhov's crypts .  Crazy how many times and how many different characters have brought them up and shown interest in them, beginning with Jon in AGOT and his dreams about them along with Bran and Rickon.  Mance via the spearwives does indeed show a very healthy interest in the crypts, unclear what his game is.  Or should I say ploy haha?  

23 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I asked a rhetorical question yesterday hoping to point out an inaccuracy, and instead got three responses layering conspiracy theory on top of conspiracy theory.

I should have known better.  This thread is hopeless.

Read the thread, you've gotten a bunch of answers but unfortunately since we don't have the books they're gonna sound "conspiratorial" but they really aren't.  As many on here seem to agree, we have 2 basic facts about Mance's mission- 1 is the rescue of Arya at Longlake.  2 is that he mentions needing the spearwives for a "certain ploy" he's been meaning to pull.  It seems pretty clear from the context that this "ploy" is entirely separate for the Arya rescue mission, and indeed I'd take it a step further and say Mance's actions prove that the ploy was always his primary intent- he never even went to Longlake from what we know.

We really don't know what that ploy is- I'd venture a guess it's political/practical in nature and perhaps Melisandre is using Mance's "son" over him as leverage to get him to help out Stannis by sowing discontent inside Winterfell, by among other things murdering Bolton men using the spearwives.  It could be something else entirely though.

 

[Tagganaro]

7 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I'm kind of appalled that the Boltons actually thought that it would work.

Ned Stark often hosted his vassals in Winterfell or traveled from holdfast to holdfast, town to town, village to village with his wife and children in tow...many times.

Well I'd actually say it's working pretty well.  It's a desperate maneuver but it's all they have.  I'm sure Roose knows that nobody actually thinks she's real, he just needs some plausible deniability and as long as the Bolton/Freys continue to hold power they don't really care if people are questioning whether Arya is real.

The funny thing is that from Jon's perspective sending Mance after Arya was a mistake (obviously it has led to events that have gotten him killed/wounded) but from a Northern perspective it's a smashing success since it removes one of the last major threads keeping the Boltons in power.

[kissdbyfire]

25 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I'm kind of appalled that the Boltons actually thought that it would work.

Ned Stark often hosted his vassals in Winterfell or traveled from holdfast to holdfast, town to town, village to village with his wife and children in tow...many times.

It's not that they think people will believe, but rather that they don't give two fucks. 

ASoS, Jaime IX

She bit her lip. "You may not recall, my lord, as I was littler then . . . but I had the honor to meet you at Winterfell when King Robert came to visit my father L,ord Eddard." She lowered her big brown eyes and mumbled, "I'm Arya Stark."

Jaime had never paid much attention to Arya Stark, but it seemed to him that this girl was older. "I understand you're to be married."

"I am to wed Lord Bolton's son, Ramsay. He used to be a Snow, but His Grace has made him a Bolton. They say he's very brave. I am so happy."
Then why do you sound so frightened? "I wish you joy, my lady." Jaime turned back to Steelshanks. "You have the coin you were promised?"

"Aye, and we've shared it out. You have my thanks." The northman grinned. "A Lannister always pays his debts."

"Always," said Jaime, with a last glance at the girl. He wondered if there was much resemblance. Not that it mattered. The real Arya Stark was buried in some unmarked grave in Flea Bottom in all likelihood. With her brothers dead, and both parents, who would dare name this one a fraud? "Good speed," he told Steelshanks. Nage raised his peace banner, and the northmen formed a column as ragged as their fur cloaks and trotted out the castle gate. The thin girl on the grey mare looked small and forlorn in their midst.

And Theon...

ADwD, Reek I

Lord Ramsay filled his cup with ale. "That would spoil our celebration, my lord. Reek, I have glad tidings for you. I am to be wed. My lord father is bringing me a Stark girl. Lord Eddard's daughter, Arya. You ,remember little Arya, don't you?"

Arya Underfoot, he almost said. Arya Horseface. Robb's younger sister, brown-haired, long-faced, skinny as a stick, always dirty. Sansa was the pretty one. He remembered a time when he had thought that Lord Eddard Stark might marry him to Sansa and claim him for a son, but that had only been a child's fancy. Arya, though … "I remember her. Arya."

"She shall be the Lady of Winterfell, and me her lord."

<snip>

ADwD, Reek II

Lord Roose studied him for a moment. "You may rise." He turned to help two young women down from inside the wagon.

The first was short and very fat, with a round red face and three chins wobbling beneath a sable hood. "My new wife," Roose Bolton said. "Lady Walda, this is my natural son. Kiss your stepmother's hand, Ramsay." He did. "And I am sure you will recall the Lady Arya. Your betrothed."

The girl was slim, and taller than he remembered, but that was only to be expected. Girls grow fast at that age. Her dress was grey wool bordered with white satin; over it she wore an ermine cloak clasped with a silver wolf's head. Dark brown hair fell halfway down her back. And her eyes …
 

That is not Lord Eddard's daughter.

Arya had her father's eyes, the grey eyes of the Starks. A girl her age might let her hair grow long, add inches to her height, see her chest fill out, but she could not change the color of her eyes. That's Sansa's little friend, the steward's girl. Jeyne, that was her name. Jeyne Poole.

"Lord Ramsay." The girl dipped down before him. That was wrong as well. The real Arya Stark would have spat into his face. "I pray that I will make you a good wife and give you strong sons to follow after you."

 

Sure, it makes perfect sense that Theon would see through the deception straight away, but Jaime? And those are, as far as I recall, the two characters we  have thinking about Jeyne not being Arya. 

We don't know how often Ned visited other lords/clan chiefs w/ Arya (and whoever) tagging along; we also don't know how often northern lords/clan chiefs visited Winterfell. That said, Martin makes it a point of having Jaime Lannister - of all people! - see through the lie immediately. Given all that, I'd say it's far more likely that the northerners at Winterfell will know fArya is most certainly not a Stark. 

And this is not OT, @Clegane'sPup!!! 

So, veering back towards 'Meanwhile back at the Wall'... is there anyone at CB at the mo who'd be able to tell Jeyne is not Arya? Can't thnk of anyone tbh. 

[Clegane'sPup]

9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It's not that they think people will believe, but rather that they don't give two fucks.

I agree. My reason being that Jaime is aware of the deal.

 

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And this is not OT, @Clegane'sPup!!! 

Har! I agree

 

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

We don't know how often Ned visited other lords/clan chiefs w/ Arya (and whoever) tagging along; we also don't know how often northern lords/clan chiefs visited Winterfell.

We know for sure Arya went to White Harbor.

Quote

 

"Cat." He considered. "Yes. Braavos is full of cats. One more will not be noticed. You are Cat, an orphan of . . ."

"King's Landing." She had visited White Harbor with her father twice, but she knew King's Landing better. (Arya II, AFFC)

 

I think that's important considering the role Wyman Manderly plays in AFFC and ADWD.

[kissdbyfire]

15 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

We know for sure Arya went to White Harbor.

I think that's important considering the role Wyman Manderly plays in AFFC and ADWD.

Yes, but my point was, we don't know how often Ned took her on his travels through the north, nor how often the northerners visited Winterfell. The fact we do know she went to WH seems to suggest Ned taking her w/ him wasn't unusual at all. 

I know there's been some debate on whether people at Winterfell know Ramsay's bride is not Arya Stark but I'm can't at the mo recall your take on it... but I find it hard to believe that people wouldn't know her for a fake.

ETA: most definitely agree the fact Arya went to WH is important.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

26 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, but my point was, we don't know how often Ned took her on his travels through the north, nor how often the northerners visited Winterfell. The fact we do know she went to WH seems to suggest Ned taking her w/ him wasn't unusual at all. 

I know there's been some debate on whether people at Winterfell know Ramsay's bride is not Arya Stark but I'm can't at the mo recall your take on it... but I find it hard to believe that people wouldn't know her for a fake.

ETA: most definitely agree the fact Arya went to WH is important.

I find it hard to believe as well. I think there's a reason Theon is so focused on her eye color. They're not the grey eyes of the Starks and they are not the blue eyes of the Tullys. Jeyne's eyes are brown.

I think this is the thing that would have given the Bolton treachery away. 

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I think this is the thing that would have given the Bolton treachery away

I agree. Too much is made of the grey eyes of the Starks, and this exactly the type of scenario where it could [and will imo] play a part in the developing plot. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

3 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Man...those crypts might as well be called Chekhov's crypts .  Crazy how many times and how many different characters have brought them up and shown interest in them, beginning with Jon in AGOT and his dreams about them along with Bran and Rickon.  Mance via the spearwives does indeed show a very healthy interest in the crypts, unclear what his game is.  Or should I say ploy haha?  

Read the thread, you've gotten a bunch of answers but unfortunately since we don't have the books they're gonna sound "conspiratorial" but they really aren't.  As many on here seem to agree, we have 2 basic facts about Mance's mission- 1 is the rescue of Arya at Longlake.  2 is that he mentions needing the spearwives for a "certain ploy" he's been meaning to pull.  It seems pretty clear from the context that this "ploy" is entirely separate for the Arya rescue mission, and indeed I'd take it a step further and say Mance's actions prove that the ploy was always his primary intent- he never even went to Longlake from what we know.

We really don't know what that ploy is- I'd venture a guess it's political/practical in nature and perhaps Melisandre is using Mance's "son" over him as leverage to get him to help out Stannis by sowing discontent inside Winterfell, by among other things murdering Bolton men using the spearwives.  It could be something else entirely though.

 

If I didn't read the thread how else would I be able to characterize the 3 responses I was given?  Yours was among them, and I will not be nice and act like it wasn't ridiculous.  Mance thinks she was real, I hoped you would see that with my rhetorical question, but you didn't, you just layered nonsense on nonsense.

The spearwives are Mance's spies, out there trying to collect info, and they all thought she was real, which means they were not able to report to him that she wasn't, which means he still thinks she is.  Mance is not cavorting with the northern lords, he is not some omnipotent god, and the best case scenario for him is that he is hiding in the crypts, and more likely he has been captured.

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Is this about the spearwives? We don't know that all spearwives died. Holly, the one who was with Theon and Jeyne died on page. Squirrel is the one who switched places with Jeyne and she's supposed to climb down the tower. And we don't know where the other ones are except for what the pink letter says. 

Holly died on page, a 2nd stayed to hold off Bolton guards and is dead or captured without any doubt, which means she died or was tortured and revealed everything including Mance.  If Holly was able to climb down then the best case scenario is she is in hiding with Mance in the crypts and she is why I said all or almost all.  But seeing as how once the alarm sounded thousands of men would have been everywhere, the far more likely scenario is she was captured almost instantly.

People keeping acting like what they want to have happened is what happened, but if that were true then Robb would've beaten the Lannisters and the story would be completely different.  We don't get what we want from this story, the characters we want to "win" in every situation regularly don't.  Just because we don't have all the information doesn't mean we don't have plenty of information to know what probably happened, or at least some of what definitely happened.

[Tagganaro]

2 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

If I didn't read the thread how else would I be able to characterize the 3 responses I was given?  Yours was among them, and I will not be nice and act like it wasn't ridiculous.  Mance thinks she was real, I hoped you would see that with my rhetorical question, but you didn't, you just layered nonsense on nonsense.

The spearwives are Mance's spies, out there trying to collect info, and they all thought she was real, which means they were not able to report to him that she wasn't, which means he still thinks she is.  Mance is not cavorting with the northern lords, he is not some omnipotent god, and the best case scenario for him is that he is hiding in the crypts, and more likely he has been captured.

Holly died on page, a 2nd stayed to hold off Bolton guards and is dead or captured without any doubt, which means she died or was tortured and revealed everything including Mance.  If Holly was able to climb down then the best case scenario is she is in hiding with Mance in the crypts and she is why I said all or almost all.  But seeing as how once the alarm sounded thousands of men would have been everywhere, the far more likely scenario is she was captured almost instantly.

People keeping acting like what they want to have happened is what happened, but if that were true then Robb would've beaten the Lannisters and the story would be completely different.  We don't get what we want from this story, the characters we want to "win" in every situation regularly don't.  Just because we don't have all the information doesn't mean we don't have plenty of information to know what probably happened, or at least some of what definitely happened.

Again, you may need to learn how to read because whether or not Mance thinks she's real, I have already said is pretty irrelevant (although an interesting debate for sure). So again, I'll grant that she's real to Mance, it still doesn't change the fact that he openly talked about needing the spearwives for a ploy of his separate from his Arya rescue mission at Longlake, and that's likely whatever he's doing at Winterfell.  That is up for debate but don't tell me about nonsense when you have nothing to add to this conversation but condescension and lack of reading comprehension.  

Not once has anyone said he's "omnipotent" or in league with Northern Lords (although I won't dismiss that possibility either) and I have already said he may be hiding in the crypts.  So again, learn to read before speaking.

[BlackLightning]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree. Too much is made of the grey eyes of the Starks, and this exactly the type of scenario where it could [and will imo] play a part in the developing plot. 

The grey eyes of the Starks are a huge red flag. But that's not all.

Arya is the only trueborn child of Ned who has every single one of his features. The hair, the facial structure, the eyes, etc. It's a point of contention for Catelyn and part of the reason why she's so sour on Jon.

All of the other Stark children were widely known to resemble their mother and the Tully family. The hair, the facial structure, the eyes, the physical build, etc. Even if you hadn't seen the Stark children with your own eyes, all of this was common knowledge among both the highborn and the lowborn.

Furthermore, it is clearly pointed out several times over the course of the series that Arya is  – for lack of a better term  – a replica of Lyanna. She acts just like her, she looks like her (more and more so now that Arya is becoming a woman).

Like I said, it's all common knowledge. It's a wonder Roose Bolton can't see how this is slowly falling apart at the seams. It's also a wonder to me that Roose Bolton can't see how much the Lannisters and Littlefinger screwed him over.

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

It's not that [the Boltons] think people will believe, but rather that they don't give two fucks. 

Well, before all is said and done, I'm 100% positive that Boltons will give three or four fucks before it's all said and done in Winds.

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

ASoS, Jaime IX

She bit her lip. "You may not recall, my lord, as I was littler then . . . but I had the honor to meet you at Winterfell when King Robert came to visit my father Lord Eddard." She lowered her big brown eyes and mumbled, "I'm Arya Stark."

Jaime had never paid much attention to Arya Stark, but it seemed to him that this girl was older. "I understand you're to be married."

"I am to wed Lord Bolton's son, Ramsay. He used to be a Snow, but His Grace has made him a Bolton. They say he's very brave. I am so happy."
Then why do you sound so frightened? "I wish you joy, my lady." Jaime turned back to Steelshanks. "You have the coin you were promised?"

"Aye, and we've shared it out. You have my thanks." The northman grinned. "A Lannister always pays his debts."

"Always," said Jaime, with a last glance at the girl. He wondered if there was much resemblance. Not that it mattered. The real Arya Stark was buried in some unmarked grave in Flea Bottom in all likelihood. With her brothers dead, and both parents, who would dare name this one a fraud? "Good speed," he told Steelshanks. Nage raised his peace banner, and the northmen formed a column as ragged as their fur cloaks and trotted out the castle gate. The thin girl on the grey mare looked small and forlorn in their midst.

Yeah, so Jaime knew about this farce and couldn't be half-assed to care. I'm very, very interested to read how he manages to try and give an explanation for that one when he is brought before UnCat. The very fact that Brienne was present in the vicinity...  

Gee, no wonder Catelyn wasn't trying to hear any of her excuses. Karma is a bitch indeed.

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, veering back towards 'Meanwhile back at the Wall'... is there anyone at CB at the mo who'd be able to tell Jeyne is not Arya? Can't thnk of anyone tbh. 

Possibly. Ned was known for treating men of the Night's Watch like honored guests. He was also likely to visit the Wall on a frequent enough basis. Benjen wasn't his only connect at the Wall. He likely knew Jeor Mormont intimately and he is familiar enough to Alliser Thorne. So much so that Thorne has multiple, specific reasons as to why he disliked Ned. Who's to say Bowen Marsh, Othell Yarwyck, Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke (all high-ranking officers) won't have become personally acquainted with Ned Stark? Who's to say that Ned Stark never invited them to his home?

Lord Commander Qorgyle (Jeor Mormont's predecessor) did. Mance Rayder accompanied Qorgyle to Winterfell and, as he says himself, "got a very good look at all of the Stark children." He had been there twice and the second time he went his priorities were a bit more pinpointed: he could likely pick Sansa, Arya, Bran, Robb, Jon and maybe even little Rickon out of a crowd.

How much more for officers who have been in the Night's Watch for years, even decades?

Personally? No, I think people will have their suspicions (Melisandre will likely chime in on the subject even though she clearly has no clue what she'll be talking about) but no. Jeyne won't be identified as a fake until Jon recovers/gets resurrected. And that's a big IF considering that she'll likely be shuttled off to Braavos before Jon wakes up (where she will likely cross paths with the real Arya).